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All season long, the NFL has been chock full of high scoring affairs. In fact, this season alone, there have been 147 ‘over’ contests against 114 ‘under’ games with some pushes mixed in, meaning if you bet on the ‘over’ in every single duel, you cashed in 56.3 percent of the time. Will this continue to be the case on the Super Bowl XLV odds, or will we revert back to a lower scoring duel? Check out these three keys that are going to probably be the decisive factors in whether this one goes over or under the posted 46.

Key #1: James Starks needs to keep control of the clock
We’ve already talked about the importance of Starks in the Super Bowl for the Packers to beat the Superbowl XLV odds, but he is going to be very instrumental in the ‘total’ as well. Green Bay has to want to keep feeding him the football to keep this clock moving on a regular basis. It seems to go without saying that the more runs there are in a game, the fewer plays that there are, thus the fewer opportunities there are for points. The good news with Starks for those looking to back the ‘under’ is that he really isn’t all that much of a home run threat. If he’s going to move the ball 60s yards on you, he’s going to do it in 10-12 carries, not just in one pop. As we know, this probably isn’t going to work against the Pittsburgh front seven though, so in a bit of an ironic twist, if you back the ‘over’ on the Super Bowl betting lines, you’re probably more interested in Starks not getting his act together.

Super Bowl XLV Odds at BetUS Sportsbook
Pittsburgh Steelers +2.5
Green Bay Packers -2.5
Over/Under (Total) 46
Click Here to Bet on Your Super Bowl Picks!

Key #2: Teams need to avoid careless mistakes
This is what has really been killing anyone that has backed the ‘under’ in a Pittsburgh game in the playoffs. Dumb, dumb, dumb mistakes. Remember in the duel against the Baltimore Ravens… The visitors picked up 17 points off of a punt return that came all the way back inside field goal range, a 35 yard pass interference penalty, and a fumble out of QB Ben Roethlisberger’s hands that was scooped up and returned for a TD. Green Bay hasn’t been all that swift of late either, as QB Aaron Rodgers coughed the ball up in enemy territory against the Chicago Bears. Of course, we know the importance of flags as well, and the good news is that these teams are very disciplined. There shouldn’t be too many drives that get down to the opposing 30 yard line, only to end in a punt because of a holding penalty or a false start call. However, you must remember that there is going to be rust on both sides, and both defenses are good enough to not just take points away from enemies, but to directly parlays those into TDs, just as both teams did on Championship Game Sunday.

Key #3: Special teams and trick plays will be key
Neither the Steelers nor the Packers really excelled this year in the kick and punt return department, which is really a surprise for two teams that are duking it out to beat the Super Bowl XLV lines. However, we know that both teams are capable of pulling off some big plays, especially via some creativity, especially the Steelers. It was only six years ago that they pulled off the wide receiver pass from WR Antwaan Randle El to WR Hines Ward to help beat the Seattle Seahawks in the Super Bowl, and they have enough talented players that can run, catch, and throw to make the Packers shake in their boots. Remember the onside kick that the New Orleans Saints pulled off in last year’s Super Bowl? Gimmicks like that are becoming more and more popular, especially with teams having two weeks to prepare for this game. You can bet that there are going to be at least three or four really tricky plays that are tried out for the first, and probably the only time on February 6th, and when they happen, you if back the ‘over’, you hope they work, and if you are relying on the ‘under’, you hope that they fail and fail miserably.

The Pittsburgh Steelers and the Green Bay Packers are already getting set to do battle in the Lone Star State, and in order for you to make your Superbowl XLV picks, we have the three biggest keys to the game that you must remember that will probably determine the outcome of the game.

Key #1: The Steelers have to use experience to their advantage
When you look at the roster for the Steelers, you see a whole slew of men that have already won rings titles, many of which have helped Pittsburgh to two victories over the Super Bowl odds in their tenures wearing black and gold. QB Ben Roethlisberger, the heart and soul of this team, is arguably the most important player on the field, and he not only figured out how to do it as a young buck, who just relied on his defense and handed the ball off a ton, but he also did it in a shootout against a two-time Super Bowl MVP in QB Kurt Warner and the Arizona Cardinals just three Super Bowls ago. There aren’t all that many coaches left in the league that can flash a Super Bowl ring in their locker room, but Head Coach Mike Tomlin is certainly one of them. He was the youngest head coach to lead his team to the Super Bowl, and the youngest to ever win it, and now, he is the youngest to bring a team to the pinnacle of the NFL twice in his career. When the Steelers won their first title in this run with a very young team, Head Coach Bill Cowher had already coached in the Super Bowl once before, and he was able to use that experience to get through to his younger players. Unfortunately for Head Coach Mike McCarthy, he really doesn’t have that to rely on. Sure, DB Charles Woodson played in Super Bowl XXXVII with the Oakland Raiders, and DT Ryan Pickett did so in Super Bowl XXXVI with the St. Louis Rams, but aside from that, there isn’t a single player on this team that knows what it’s like to play in the biggest game of the season. Pittsburgh really needs to exploit that advantage to beat the Superbowl lines on February 6th.

Super Bowl XLV Odds at JustBet
Pittsburgh Steelers +2.5
Green Bay Packers -2.5
Over/Under 46
Click Here to Bet on Your Super Bowl Picks!

Key #2: The Packers need to figure out how to get into the face of Ben Roethlisberger
This is what the New York Jets had success with… sometimes. When Roethlisberger was kept in the pocket in the AFC Championship Game, he frequently made some mistakes. The pressure can really come from the outside, where Pittsburgh is very weak at the offensive tackle position, and this is a great thing for LB Clay Matthews, as these are the men that he is going to be going against. It’s when Big Ben breaks containment that things start to get hairy for the opponents. There might not be a signal caller that is better at escaping trouble and making something out of nothing than Roethlisberger in the entire league, and again, we have to stress the fact that he has really done it at every stage of the game in his career. Green Bay already has six INTs and 10 sacks so far in three playoff games this year. It really needs to make sure that Roethlisberger has hands in his face at all times and that he just doesn’t get to the outside, or these corners, no matter how great they are, just don’t stand a chance to win against guys like WR Mike Wallace, WR Antwaan Randle El, and WR Hines Ward.

Key #3: James Starks has to keep the Pittsburgh defense honest
We can be realistic when we say that Starks isn’t going to rush for 100 yards against the Pittsburgh defense in the Super Bowl, and we’re fairly sure that if he does, the Packers are going to be the champs and will beat the Super Bowl betting lines. However, the role that Starks has played, even though he has only averaged 3.76 yards per carry in the playoffs, is that he is taking some of the pressure off of QB Aaron Rodgers. Where this rookie from Buffalo has been all season long is beyond us, but he is clearly the best running back option that the Pack have had all season since losing RB Ryan Grant to a season ending ankle injury in Week 1. Starks, along with RB Brandon Jackson and RB John Kuhn, have to be able to keep Green Bay in front of the down and distance in this game. Punting is okay, but forcing Rodgers into situations in which he has to pick up third and long on a regular basis is going to create mistakes. The Steelers can overcome blunders every now and again. Odds have it, Green Bay won’t be able to. If Starks can’t at least get something going though, there is just going to be too much pressure on Rodgers, and he is going to be in for a very long game against a defense that just loves to make you one dimensional.

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The 2011 Pro Bowl is just a few weeks away, and the rosters were announced on Tuesday night. What we have to remember about the Pro Bowl this year is that players that are playing in the Super Bowl are not going to be in the game this year, as the Pro Bowl is played the week before the biggest game of the year, not a few weeks later.

That being said, it wouldn’t be overly surprising if either AFC QB Tom Brady or NFC QB Michael Vick are kept out of this game due to the fact that they are playing for the Lombardi Trophy the next week.

Even though we know right now that the rosters aren’t going to look like this when push comes to shove, we can still analyze the rosters as they sit at the moment.

Quarterbacks: The AFC has a fantastic trio of pure drop back passers. Brady simply plays with precision with every single pass, while his backups, Tom Brady and Peyton Manning were both fantastic all season long. In Manning and Rivers, the AFC has two of the top passers in terms of yardage in the league, while Brady has a great touch and should only be made better by a great crop of receivers, something that he doesn’t have in New England. The NFC is probably more dynamic. Atlanta’s Matt Ryan refuses to lose, while Drew Brees is seemingly always here in the Pro Bowl. Michael Vick as the start is an interesting choice, especially since he wasn’t even good enough to start in Philly at the outset of the season. There’s more than Vick can do with his legs, but the better passers are clearly in the AFC. Advantage: AFC

Running Backs: This is about as even of a match as you can get assuming that these are the backs that end up in the game. The AFC South duo of Maurice Jones-Drew and Arian Foster can run all day long, while Jamaal Charles has an explosive first step and is used to splitting carries. Michael Turner has been a workhorse all season long, which might cause him to be left out of the lineup for the Pro Bowl. Adrian Peterson is probably the most talented back in the league, while Steven Jackson is one of the most underappreciated backs that the league has to offer. Just one question for the AFC, though. Where’s Chris Johnson? Advantage: NFC

Wide Receivers/Tight Ends: If the AFC is winning this game, this is where it is doing it. This conference has three of the top men for receiving yards in the league in Andre Johnson, Brandon Lloyd, and Reggie Wayne, and you won’t find a better target near the end zone than Dwayne Bowe, who has three more TD catches than anyone else in the league. Antonio Gates probably isn’t playing, which leaves just Marcedes Lewis and potentially a man like Dustin Keller. The NFC has the better tight ends and a fantastic option sitting on the sidelines, as Vernon Davis would easily be a starter in the red conference. Jason Witten and the experienced Tony Gonzalez are fantastic. Roddy White is probably the best possession receiver in the NFL, and there is a nice mix as well with some speed, as both Greg Jennings and DeSean Jackson have some major speed. Advantage: AFC

2011 Pro Bowl Roster – AFC (Bold denotes starter)
Quarterbacks: Tom Brady, Philip Rivers, Peyton Manning
Running Backs: Maurice Jones-Drew, Arian Foster, Jamaal Charles
Fullback: Vonta Leach
Wide Receivers: Andre Johnson, Reggie Wayne, Brandon Lloyd, Dwayne Bowe
Tight Ends: Antonio Gates, Marcedes Lewis
Centers: Nick Mangold, Maurkice Pouncey
Guards: Kris Dielman, Logan Mankins, Brian Waters
Tackles: Jake Long, Joe Thomas, D’Brickashaw Ferguson
Defensive Linemen: Dwight Freeney, Robert Mathis, Haloti Ngata, Vince Wilfork, Richard Seymour, Jason Babin
Linebackers: Ray Lewis, James Harrison, Cameron Wake, Jerod Mayo, Terrell Suggs
Cornerbacks: Nnamdi Asomugha, Darrelle Revis, Devin McCourty
Safeties: Troy Polamalu, Ed Reed, Brandon Meriweather
Punter: Shane Lechler
Kicker: Billy Cundiff
Kick Returner: Marc Mariani
Special Teams: Montell Owens

2011 Pro Bowl Roster – NFC (Bold denotes starter)
Quarterbacks: Michael Vick, Matt Ryan, Drew Brees
Running Backs: Michael Turner, Adrian Peterson, Steven Jackson
Fullback: Ovie Mughelli
Wide Receivers: Roddy White, Calvin Johnson, DeSean Jackson, Greg Jennings
Tight Ends: Jason Witten, Tony Gonzalez
Centers: Andre Gurode, Shaun O’Hara
Guards: Jahri Evans, Chris Snee, Carl Nicks
Tackles: Jason Peters, Jordan Gross, Chad Clifton
Defensive Linemen: Julius Peppers, John Abraham, Ndamukong Suh, Jay Ratliff, Justin Tuck, Justin Smith
Linebackers: Patrick Willis, Clay Matthews, DeMarcus Ware, Lance Briggs, Brian Urlacher
Cornerbacks: Asante Samuel, Charles Woodson, DeAngelo Hall
Safeties: Nick Collins, Adrian Wilson, Antrel Rolle
Punter: Mat McBriar
Kicker: David Akers
Kick Returner: Devin Hester
Special Teams: Eric Weems

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One of the greatest things about the Super Bowl from a betting standpoint is the enormity of betting opportunities for sports bettors.  The Super Bowl has always been the single most popular game in the world when it comes to sports betting. Just to give you an idea of the money involved, Nevada is expecting nearly 100 million in wagering just within the state’s borders for this year’s Super Bowl. As a result, online bookmakers have taken advantage offering countless proposition and exotic betting lines for side action. For this year’s Super Bowl, bettors can literally wager on anything from the outcome of the coin flip to what color top Kim Kardashian will be wearing at the game.  In a previous post below, Rodney recently shared some tips for betting props along with some of the top prop odds and Super Bowl betting bonuses. With so many lines available, bettors can easily get caught up in all the excessive action in all the wrong ways. Since there are so many betting opportunities available, many bettors will wager money with a “careless” attitude and risk money on many chance bets. I spent some time breaking down some of these prop lines and to provide some predictions that will increase your chances of ending the season in the black.  Below are a few prop that I believe deserve some attention heading into the Super Bowl. All of the prop odds below can be found at Bodog Sportsbook (10% Bonus – Accepting Credit Card deposits for the Superbowl)

Prop Bet #1 – Will the Indianapolis Colts score every quarter?

Yes  +130
No  – 160

The Indianapolis Colts and New Orleans Saints are two offensive powered teams that will collide with a lot of points expected. The Saints secondary has been questionable all season and that throws up red flags for many reasons against Peyton Manning’s offense. In fact, the Colts have scored in 3 of 4 quarters in both postseason match-ups. While history may tell us that a team scoring all 4 quarters is unlikely in a Super Bowl, the Colts have a great chance. The reason is they have to keep the pressure on the Saints and their offense will not let up with the lead. The Saints hung 45 on the Cardinals and 31 on the Vikings. Therefore, Manning should get plenty of opportunities with the football and it’s doubtful the Saints defense will have an answer for the fast pace Colts offense. With some profitable juice, this is a great risk to consider.

Pick – Yes

Prop Bet #2 – The first 1^st down will be either a passing or rushing play?

Passing -200
Rushing  +160

Unless there is a 1 yard conversion, a passing play should be the result of the first 1^st down in the game. Neither offense has much confidence in their running game. In fact, both teams use their running games to control the clock rather than looking for success on the ground. Peyton Manning and Drew Brees are two of the top quarterbacks in the league and it is no secret that both offenses heavily favor the pass. Both offenses will keep the ball in the hands of their star quarterbacks and hope they both get into a rhythm early. Unless there is a early short yardage situation, the passing game will be used nearly every down especially early in the game. Consider this a high percentage play that a passing play will result in opening first down of the game.

Pick – Passing

Prop Bet #3 – Total receiving yards – Robert Meachem

Over 45 ½  +105
Under 45 ½  -135

Robert Meachem has played a solid role in contributing to the Saints lethal passing attack this season. However, in recent weeks Meachem has been nearly ineffective. Over the last 3 games, Meachem has caught just 4 passes totaling 31 yards. The reason may be because the Saints have run the ball better and have gotten help from a ton of outside passing options. Whatever the case may be, Meachem has not even been targeted by Drew Brees but very rarely in the past few games. Running backs Reggie Bush and Pierre Thomas have been used more frequently catching balls out of the backfield taking some of those outside options away from Meachem. Wide outs Devery Henderson and Marques Colston will remain the primary targets in the passing game. If the Saints continue to use their backs in the passing game with effectiveness, Meachem may be left out of the picture once again.

Pick – Under 45 ½

Prop Bet #4 – Who will throw more interceptions?   

Drew Brees  -105
Peyton Manning -125

All eyes will be on both quarterbacks this Sunday and rightfully so. The Colts have Peyton Manning who before it is all said and done could go down as the greatest quarterback every. The Saints have Drew Brees who has absolutely mastered the New Orleans air attack. While most may agree that Manning is the better of the two, he is also the most vulnerable to giving up an interception. Manning threw 16 interceptions during the regular season while Brees threw just 11 total. In fact despite the Saints secondary that lacks respect against the pass, they actually picked off 26 interceptions during the regular season equaling the 3^rd most in the NFL. Safety Darren Sharper tied for the most picks in the NFL with 9 and the Saints defense will need those turnovers this weekend to pull off the victory. Even if the Colts prevail, Manning normally gives up at least one interception and that may be one more than Brees will throw this Sunday.

Pick – Manning

Prop Bet #5 – Team to receive the opening kickoff 

New Orleans Saints  -115
Indianapolis Colts  -115

This particular betting line is offered every year, but nearly always seem to go the opposite direction from what the betting public expects. However, we believe we got this year’s decision for both team’s figured out. The perceptions here is that both teams want to put their offenses on the field first which is why the line is considered a toss up. However, the Colts may elect the alternative if they do happen to win the toss. The Colts defense has played extremely well at times this year and their momentum tends to set the tone for the offense. I believe the Colts will put their defense on the field first to try and force a quick change of possession putting the advantage to their offense. On the other side of the coin, I just do not see how the Saints could put their defense on the field first allowing Peyton Manning the first opportunity to score. If the Saints win the toss, they will accept the ball and look to make an opening statement.

Pick – Saints

Underdogs are typically the way to go… This bodes awfully well for New Orleans, particularly catching so many points. The only teams to cover a spread higher than four points in recent Super Bowls have been these Indianapolis Colts in 2007 (-7 vs. Chicago Bears) and the Denver Broncos in 1999 (-7.5 vs. Atlanta Falcons). Aside from that, dogs larger than four points have been golden, going 6-2 ATS dating back to 1996. The underdog has covered six of the L/8 Super Bowls overall as well.

Run, run, run, as much as you can… Once again, in all likelihood, this is a huge trend that will be solid for the Saints. In the previous 43 Super Bowls, the team running the ball more in the game went a stellar 37-4 SU. (In Super Bowl V, both the Cowboys and Colts ran the ball 31 times. The same happened when the Bills and Cowboys rushed the pigskin 29 times apiece in Super Bowl XXVII) The Colts pass the ball on almost 63% of their offensive downs. New Orleans is still a pass-happy squad, but it only puts the pill in the air 55% of the time. The Saints are averaging carrying the ball 6.3 times per game more than Indianapolis does. Don’t think that the Colts don’t know about this stat though. An aerial based team in 2007 itself, the Colts still ran the ball 40 times combined with RBs Dominic Rhodes and Joseph Addai, and that’s why they captured Super Bowl XLI.

All Over the Under… Reaching 56.5 points in any NFL betting battle is difficult, but the truth of the matter is that it’s very possible, especially when you consider how good these two offenses are that will take the field on Sunday afternoon in Miami. However, keep in mind that only eight Super Bowls have exceeded 56 points in NFL history, and none have gotten there since 2004. It’s not like there has been a lack of offensive firepower in the big game either of late. Last season, the Cardinals had one of the highest-flying offenses in the league. The same could be said about the record-setting Pats of 2007-08 and the Colts from ’06-’07. Chew on this as well. Indianapolis only had three games this season, including the playoffs, get to that 57+ point mark. New Orleans has played both of its playoff games beyond that number and did play six games past that point in the regular season. However, only three of those occurred away from the Superdome.

Watch out for moneyline value… Normally speaking in the regular season, teams that are favored by 5.5-6 points are usually lined around -250 or so on the moneyline. But this is the Super Bowl, and the majority of money either comes in on the favorites to cover the football betting line, or the underdog to win outright on the moneyline. The end result? Deflated numbers for the favorites to win SU. Right now, at Diamond Sportsbook, you can find Indianapolis lined at -220, and if you shop, you may be able to find a -200 or so by game time.