Archive for August, 2014

2014 NFL MVP Odds & MVP Value Picks

August 7th, 2014 by Chad A. Dawkins | Posted in NFL Football   Comments Off on 2014 NFL MVP Odds & MVP Value Picks
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The 2014 NFL football campaign is upon us, making it a great time to take a hard look at the fantasy nerd’s favorite award. 2014 NFL MVP OddsWhich player will make his presence known throughout the league this year while posting the most ridiculous numbers?

A complete list of the 2014 NFL MVP odds, (courtesy of 5Dimes Sportsbook), can be found by scrolling to the bottom of this post. We’ll offer some MVP picks for guys we think are being offered at a considerable bargain. We went through a few of the favorites, long shots, biggest NFL stars, and guys we think have value. There’s a few of the league’s big names being offered at a very competitive prices. We’ll also discuss which players we feel are over-priced.

Advanced Warning To NFL Fanboys – This is an article for bettors who are looking to make sharper value bets. NFL Fanboys should bear in mind that when we say your favorite player is over-priced, it doesn’t mean we are disrespecting him, nor does it mean we are saying that the player has no chance to win the MVP. We’re simply stating the chances are probably less (or similar) than the books offering. Any player on this list has a chance to win the MVP and is a top NFL player. So, there no need to go blasting the comments when reading our “value picks for NFL MVP”. If you have enlightened comments about the prices, we would love to hear them.

Here’s our take on some of the heavily bet, and not-so-heavily bet, players along with their current odds to win the MVP, heading into the 2014 NFL football campaign.

Player Price With Absolutely No Value (No Value At All):

Current Odds on Favorite: Peyton Manning (QB – Denver Broncos)
Peyton Manning’s 2014 Odds to win the NFL MVP: 3.6 to 1 (or +360)
It should come as no surprise that Manning is the favorite to win the 2014 NFL MVP this season due to his gaudy offensive numbers last year. Manning shattered the record books last year with 5477 yards and 55 touchdowns. Although, Peyton has the majority of his supporting cast back (in Demaryius Thomas, Julius Thomas, and Wes Welker), Eric Decker, who was 2nd in the team in receptions last year, is now a New York Jet. The Broncos are hoping that former Steeler, Emmanuel Sanders will fill the void, but it’s not really an upgrade. Obviously, Denver will once again be a contender to represent the AFC in the Super Bowl, due to the inferior competition in the conference and their division. However, the AFC west D-coordinators have had their share of looks at Manning now and you better believe they had their notebooks out when they watched a rugged NFC West defense bottle him up in the Superbowl. These improving west coast squads may be better prepared to slow the Denver offense down a little bit. Throw in the fact that Manning is another year older and a bad start to the 2014 season may wear him down mentally and force him to consider retirement. Obviously, if healthy, he should put up solid numbers once again, but a 4 to 1 payout is not worth letting the books hold your money all year (while you hope Sir Peyton can light up the league again).

Player Available At Massive Price Reduction (Serious Value):

Tom Brady (QB – New England Patriots)
NFL MVP Odds For Tom Brady: 12 to 1 (or +1200)
Tommy had somewhat of a down year (statistically speaking) last season, but there were lots of reasons for it; not excuses….reasons (there’s a difference). An endless number of bad beats were taken by the New England Patriots, from the very start, right to the end of the 2013-14 season. Aaron Hernandez was unexpectedly removed from the offense and thrown in the clink before the season started, our favorite youtube club dancer, Rob Gronkowski, was injured for a better part of the season.  Brady also he had to mesh with 2 new wide receivers. Now that Gronkowski is healthy, Julian Edelman is back, and with their young receivers (Kenbrell Thompkins & Aaron Dobson) having a full year of the offense under their belt, the Patriots should be improved this season. Not only does Brady have a slew of weapons at his disposal, but the New England defense could feature one of the best secondaries in a long time, with the additions of Darrelle Revis and Brandon Browner.

Longshot (Give A Little, To Get A Lot) Player (Fair Value):

JJ Watt (DL – Houston Texans)
2014 MVP Odds For J.J. Watt: 150 to 1 (or +15000) 
In many eyes, JJ Watt is the league’s premier defensive player. There will likely be less double teams on Watt, now that the Texans added Jadaveon Clowney on the other side of the line. If Clowney can get healthy Watt will surely make his presence known once again this year. I can’t think of 15 defensive players more likely to win the MVP than Watt. The Texans, although they have concerns at the quarterback position, should be a team to be reckoned with this season with new coach Bill O’Brien at the helm. These factors, make Watt’s price a bargain and definitely worth a look. 150 to 1? Why not?

Two Teammates Being Sold At Tempting Prices:

LeSean McCoy (RB) & Nick Foles (QB) – (Philadelphia Eagles)
Latest 2014 NFL MVP Odds for LeSean McCoy +4000 & Nick Foles +5000
While both of these prices may look tempting, theres a lot to look at here. Philadelphia head coach Chip Kelly brought his dynamic style of offense to the NFL last season. Many thought it wouldn’t work, and early in the season Eagles fans we’re cringing at their slow start. However, it was a blessing disguised when starting quarterback & turnover machine, Michael Vick was ailed by an early season hamstring injury (just early enough). Even the wise Chip Kelly didn’t expect 2nd year backup Nick Foles to execute Kelly’s fast paced offense in a higher level than Vick. Even post-Vick, Foles himself was dealing with a nagging injury. Watching a third string rookie try to execute Kelly’s demanding playbook made things look bleak early in the year and those loveable Philadelphia fans were all the more friendly in September last year.

However, Nick showed some NFL quarterback level fortitude and got very comfortable as the season progressed. A down year in the NFC East and a poor finish in 2012 afforded the Eagles a weak strength of schedule. This provided Nick Foles with a timely & smooth transition to the starting job.  A gradually improving Philadelphia D combined with Kelly’s pedal-to-the-medal coaching style gave the efficient Foles the perfect opportunity get his feet wet in the NFL.

Kelly began building his offense around McCoy’s dynamic running attack, using some comfortable leads in games to give his young QB the freedom to grow.  A few tough wins later, Foles was filling up the stat sheet and downright feasting on some of the league’s weaker secondaries. To say he put up quality passing numbers would be an understatement. The sophomore QB was developing into a NFL-level passer and the Eagles won the NFC East.

The Eagles fell short in the playoffs to the New Orleans Saints in what was a very slow game offensively. Philadelphia fans are now encouraged and believe that a full offseason under Kelly will make them an improved team & an NFC contender. However, sharp bettors can’t help but take note of their 2014-15 division-winning schedule, where they will have to face defensive powerhouses like Carolina, Arizona, Seattle, & San Francisco. To the average fan, Foles looks like a great value at 50-1, as we all know passing is what you see on ESPN highlights. But, make no mistake about it.  LeSean McCoy is the one who took them to the playoffs last year and allowed them to battle. If the Eagles are going to survive this schedule and Nick Foles is going to continue to develop as passer while having to go through some of the league’s elite pass-rushing rosters, you better believe that it’s going to be their horse in LeSean McCoy that gets both the Eagles & young Nick Foles out the other side. At this price, McCoy is worth a look.

Player Who Just Might Surprise You (Value):

Jay Cutler (QB – Chicago Bears)
2014 NFL MVP Odds for Jay Cutler: 25 to 1 (or +2500)
For starters, there’s always the “Can Jay Cutler stay healthy?” question that is asked regularly. It seems to be the only thing that is keeping him from being a top-tier quarterback (that and his crappy attitude). Cutler probably has the most feared wide receiver tandem in Brandon Marshall and Alshon Jeffery. In Marc Trestman’s second year, he has implemented a solid running game and more quick throws for Cutler, keeping him on his feet and taking a lot fewer hits.  The Bear’s have also made a number of key acquisitions to patch up a defense that underperformed last year.  The Bears might be in for a very surprising season, and clearly, their success and failure rests on Jay Cutler’s health. With Cutler & the Bears playing one of the weaker defensive conferences, he is worth a shot at these odds to win what is a largely stat based award.

Player With Something To Prove at an Opportune Time (Best Value):

Colin Kaepernick (QB – San Francisco 49ers)
Odds to win the MVP for Colin Kaepernick: 30 to 1 (or +3000)
The real reason nobody would have considered 2nd year starter Colin Kaepernick for NFL MVP last season was not because he didn’t win games or wasn’t effective. There was no lack of big plays from young Colin Kaepernick.  In fact, he won a lot of games against very good teams. The reason he wasn’t an MVP candidate was because he didn’t put up gaudy passing numbers.  After all, the regular-season MVP award, is about passing yards and touchdowns for quarterbacks (it’s a media-based award).

In 2013, the 49ers game plan was very ball-controlled, run-heavy due to their defensive dominance, lack of a deep receiving threat (due to Michael Crabtree’s 10-week injury), and a brutal division-winning schedule (in the NFC West). Colin Kaepernick would have quite a few games where he’d play well and do it with his legs & his arm.  In those games, he’d finish the game with passing yards total fewer than 200 yards.  This tends to get the public (even the east coast media who doesn’t see the game) into thinking Kaepernick isn’t effective as a passer; which couldn’t be further from the truth.

This year, the 49ers defense has already been hit with a few setbacks early in pre-season.  A healthy Michael Crabtree lined up along side Anquan Boldin & Vernon Davis, as well as new additions in Steve Johnson & Brandon Lloyd (fighting for the 3rd wide receiver spot) will provide Kaepernick with a lot more receiving options as well as strong running game and returning o-line to give him time to throw. There is also a some young talent like Quinton Patton and rookie speedster Bruce Ellington. With all these weapons at his disposal and a that needs some time to re-gel, a frustrated Jim Harbaugh may be inclined to open up the offense a lot this year and not take his foot off gas pedal.

Regular Season MVP Odds Courtesy of 5Dimes Sportsbook:
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Peyton Manning +360
Aaron Rodgers +600
Drew Brees +800
Tom Brady +1200
Jay Cutler +2500
Andrew Luck +2500
Calvin Johnson +2800
Colin Kaepernick +3000
Adrian Peterson +3000
Robert Griffin III +3500
Russell Wilson +3500
LeSean McCoy +4000
Matthew Stafford +4500
Nick Foles +5000
Matt Ryan +5000
Cam Newton +5000
Philip Rivers +6000
Jamaal Charles +6000
Tony Romo +6500
Eli Manning +7000
Dez Bryant +8000
Demaryius Thomas +8500
Matt Forte +8500
AJ Green +9500
Jimmy Graham +10000
Ben Roethlisberger +10000
Brandon Marshall +10000
Julio Jones +11000
Rob Gronkowski +12500
Alshon Jeffery +12500
Marshawn Lynch +12500
Joe Flacco +12500
Victor Cruz +12500
Percy Harvin +12500
Josh McCown +13500
Eddie Lacy +15000
Alfred Morris +15000
Jake Locker +15000
Reggie Bush +15000
Antonio Brown +15000
JJ Watt +15000
Luke Kuechly +17500
Arian Foster +17500
Greg Hardy +17500
Sam Bradford +17500
Larry Fitzgerald +17500
Alex Smith +17500
Andy Dalton +20000
Montee Ball +20000
CJ Spiller +20000
Giovani Bernard +20000
Zac Stacy +20000
Ryan Mathews +20000
Richard Sherman +20000
Robert Quinn +20000
Chris Johnson +20000
Carson Palmer +22500
Von Miller +22500
Matt Schaub +22500
Knowshon Moreno +25000
Frank Gore +25000
Darrelle Revis +25000
Patrick Peterson +25000
Chad Henne +25000
EJ Manuel +25000
Matt Cassel +25000
Michael Vick +25000
Ryan Tannehill +25000
Brian Hoyer +25000
Ryan Fitzpatrick +27500
Johnny Manziel +30000
DeMarco Murray +30000
Ray Rice +30000
Geno Smith +35000
Cecil Shorts III +50000

2014 PGA Championship Odds, Picks, & Preview

August 2nd, 2014 by Lou Palumbo (Head Columnist) | Posted in Golf / PGA Tour   Comments Off on 2014 PGA Championship Odds, Picks, & Preview
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Complete List of 2014 PGA Championship Odds Found Below
2014 PGA Championship Predictions, Odds, & Tournament Info.
2014 PGA Championship Dates: Thursday, August 7th – Sunday, August 10th
2014 PGA Championship Location: Valhalla Country Club, Louisville, Kentucky
Odds To Win The 2014 PGA Championship Favorite: Rory McIlory (5 to 1)
Current Defending PGA Championship Champion: Jason Dufner (125 to 1)
PGA Championship TV Coverage: CBS, TNT, and The Golf Channel

2014 PGA Championship Odds at ValhallaThe fourth grand slam tournament of the 2014 PGA Tour takes place at Valhalla Country Club in Louisville, Kentucky for the 96th annual PGA Championship. Jason Dufner (PGA Championship Golf Betting Lines: 125 to 1  at 5 Dimes) will be looking to defend his 2013 championship. Dufner has had a decent year with 4 top 10 finishes this year, but has yet to grab a win and has been less consistent than most tour stars with odds lower than 50 to 1.  In the 3 major tournaments, Dufner made the cut in only one, in which he finished 51st in the British Open last month. Dufner’s average line amongst the books is around 35 to 1.  While this number may attract some golf fans, this line is not tempting in the least to any sharp futures player.


We really liked California native Rickie Fowler (PGA Championship Golf Betting Lines: 22 to 1  at 5 Dimesin last month’s Open Championship, and he did not disappoint with an impressive 2nd place finish. Fowler has recently altered his swing for more control and is playing as well as anyone in major tournaments (this side of Rory McIlroy).  We still think Rickie has tremendous value once again at 25 to 1, with consecutive runner-up finishes in the last two major tournaments. Fowler also had a 5th place finish at the Masters.  His 3 top 5 finishes in each major tournament this season can’t be ignored. If you like him at 25 to 1, don’t hesitate to pull the trigger.

List Of Past The PGA Championship Winners (Since 2000)
2013 – Jason Dufner
2012 – Rory McIlroy
2011 – Keegan Bradley
2010 – Martin Kaymer
2009 – YE Yang
2008 – Padraig Harrington
2007 – Tiger Woods
2006 – Tiger Woods
2005 – Phil Mickelson
2004 – Vijay Singh
2003 – Shaun Micheel
2002 – Rich Beem
2001 – David Toms
2000 – Tiger Woods

5DimesIt should come as no surprise that this year’s British Open winner Rory McIlory is the favorite (at 7 to 1 @ Bovada to win this year’s PGA Championship). McIlroy dominated last month’s Open Championship, jumping out to a lead and never looking back with a wire to wire win. McIlroy has had seven top 10 finishes this season, and is more likely than anyone to be in the mix to win in Valhalla.

Angel Cabrera (PGA Championship Golf Betting Lines: 80 to 1 at 5 Dimes) is a longshot, but offers some value.  We love Angel Cabrera’s controlled power.  He won the Greenbrier Classic in early July, edging the 2nd place finisher by 2 strokes. It was Cabrera’s first win since claiming the green jacket in 2009. Cabrera has two major wins under his belt, and definitely has the experience to make a run in the PGA championship. At these odds, Cabrera is worth a shot as he always seems to make some noise in majors when its least expected.

The last time the PGA championship made its way to Valhalla, it was back in 2000. The winner of that tournament was none other than Tiger Woods (PGA Championship Golf Betting Lines: 66 to 1 at 5 Dimes). Woods didn’t have the most impressive showing at last month’s Open Championship, but he was encouraged by the way he was hitting the ball and was still recovering from an injury.  He hit more fairways than most of the field at the British Open, including Rory McIlroy.  Woods’ progress should be monitored in this weekend’s WGC-Bridgestone invitational. At 10 to 1, and with Woods trying to make his way back from injury, these odds don’t offer a lot of value. But, with a strong opening round, 10 to 1 will look like a bargain.

Betting Odds to Win PGA Championship @ 5 Dimes (as of 8/2/14):
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Rory McIlroy 5 to 1
Adam Scott 11 to 1
Justin Rose 17 to 1
Sergio Garcia 16 to 1
Rickie Fowler 22 to 1
Henrik Stenson 26 to 1
Phil Mickelson 27 to 1
Matt Kuchar 30 to 1
Bubba Watson 32 to 1
Charl Schwartzel 32 to 1
Keegan Bradley 33 to 1
Graeme McDowell 40 to 1
Jim Furyk 40 to 1
Martin Kaymer 42 to 1
Hideki Matsuyama 45 to 1
Jordan Spieth 45 to 1
Marc Leishman 45 to 1
Brandt Snedeker 55 to 1
Jimmy Walker 60 to 1
Hunter Mahan 66 to 1
Tiger Woods 66 to 1
Ryan Moore 70 to 1
Patrick Reed 75 to 1
J.B. Holmes 85 to 1
Jason Day 85 to 1
Lee Westwood 85 to 1
Gary Woodland 100 to 1
Victor Dubuisson 100 to 1
Webb Simpson 100 to 1
Zach Johnson 100 to 1
Angel Cabrera 110 to 1
Robert Karlsson 115 to 1
Jason Dufner 125 to 1
Luke Donald 125 to 1
Thomas Bjorn 125 to 1
Chris Kirk 145 to 1
Kevin Na 145 to 1
Bill Haas 150 to 1
Graham DeLaet 150 to 1
Harris English 150 to 1
Brendon Todd 155 to 1
Francesco Molinari 165 to 1
Louis Oosthuizen 165 to 1
Paul Casey 165 to 1
Billy Horschel 175 to 1
Shane Lowry 185 to 1
Steve Stricker 185 to 1
Geoff Ogilvy 200 to 1
Ian Poulter 225 to 1
Nick Watney 225 to 1
John Senden 250 to 1
Charles Howell III 265 to 1
Kevin Stadler 275 to 1
Ben Martin 325 to 1
Jamie Donaldson 325 to 1
Seung-Yul Noh 345 to 1
Stephen Gallacher 345 to 1
Brooks Koepka 365 to 1
Russell Henley 375 to 1
Ryan Palmer 375 to 1
Jonas Blixt 385 to 1
Charley Hoffman 400 to 1
Thongchai Jaidee 400 to 1
Tim Clark 400 to 1
Scott Piercy 425 to 1
Kevin Chappell 45 to 10
Brendon De Jonge 465 to 1
Fredrik Jacobson 465 to 1
Brendan Steele 475 to 1
Ernie Els 475 to 1
K.J. Choi 475 to 1
Matteo Manassero 500 to 1
Miguel Angel Jimenez 500 to 1
Scott Stallings 500 to 1
Joost Luiten 565 to 1
Fabrizio Zanotti 575 to 1
Brian Harman 600 to 1
George Coetzee 600 to 1
Rafael Cabrera-Bello 600 to 1
Russell Knox 600 to 1
Ryo Ishikawa 600 to 1
Branden Grace 625 to 1
Edoardo Molinari 625 to 1
Matt Every 665 to 1
Matt Jones 665 to 1
Boo Weekley 675 to 1
Jason Kokrak 675 to 1
Steven Bowditch 700 to 1
Stewart Cink 745 to 1
Kenny Perry 785 to 1
Danny Willett 825 to 1
Kevin Streelman 825 to 1
Thorbjorn Olesen 845 to 1
George McNeill 865 to 1
Chris Stroud 900 to 1
Chris Wood 900 to 1
Colin Montgomerie 900 to 1
Padraig Harrington 900 to 1
Daniel Summerhays 925 to 1
Gonzalo Fdez-Castano 925 to 1
Ross Fisher 925 to 1
Cameron Tringale 950 to 1
Aaron Krueger 1000 to 1
Alexander Levy 1000 to 1
Anirban Lahiri 1000 to 1
Ben Crane 1000 to 1
Bernd Wiesberger 1000 to 1
Bob Sowards 1000 to 1
Brian Norman 1000 to 1
Brian Stuard 1000 to 1
Chesson Hadley 1000 to 1
Darren Clarke 1000 to 1
David Hearn 1000 to 1
David Hronek 1000 to 1
David McNabb 1000 to 1
David Tentis 1000 to 1
Davis Love III 1000 to 1
Dustin Volk 1000 to 1
Eric Williamson 1000 to 1
Erik Compton 1000 to 1
Frank Esposito 1000 to 1
Hideto Tanihara 1000 to 1
Jamie Broce 1000 to 1
Jason Bohn 1000 to 1
Jerry Kelly 1000 to 1
Jerry Smith 1000 to 1
Jim McGovern 1000 to 1
Johan Kok 1000 to 1
John Daly 1000 to 1
Kim Hyung-Sung 1000 to 1
Kiradech Aphibarnrat 1000 to 1
Koumei Oda 1000 to 1
Marc Warren 1000 to 1
Mark Brooks 1000 to 1
Matt Pesta 1000 to 1
Michael Block 1000 to 1
Mikko Ilonen 1000 to 1
Pablo Larrazabal 1000 to 1
Rich Beem 1000 to 1
Richard Sterne 1000 to 1
Rob Corcoran 1000 to 1
Roberto Castro 1000 to 1
Rod Perry 1000 to 1
Rory Sabbatini 1000 to 1
Ryan Helminen 1000 to 1
Scott Brown 1000 to 1
Shaun Micheel 1000 to 1
Steve Schneiter 1000 to 1
Stuart Deane 1000 to 1
Tom Watson 1000 to 1
Tommy Fleetwood 1000 to 1
Vijay Singh 1000 to 1
Will MacKenzie 1000 to 1
Y.E. Yang 1000 to 1

2014 PGA Championship Betting Lines at Bovada (as of 8/1/14):

Rory McIlroy 7/1
Tiger Woods 10/1
Adam Scott 12/1
Phil Mickelson 20/1
Martin Kaymer 22/1
Rickie Fowler 22/1
Bubba Watson 25/1
Henrik Stenson 25/1
Jordan Spieth 25/1
Justin Rose 25/1
Sergio Garcia 25/1
Dustin Johnson 28/1
Jason Day 33/1
Jason Dufner 33/1
Jim Furyk 33/1
Matt Kuchar 33/1
Brandt Snedeker 40/1
Charl Schwartzel 40/1
Graeme McDowell 40/1
Keegan Bradley 40/1
Lee Westwood 40/1
Luke Donald 40/1
Zach Johnson 40/1
Hunter Mahan 50/1
Jimmy Walker 50/1
Webb Simpson 50/1
Hideki Matsuyama 66/1
Ian Poulter 66/1
Louis Oosthuizen 66/1
Steve Stricker 66/1
Angel Cabrera 80/1
Bill Haas 80/1
Gary Woodland 80/1
Graham DeLaet 80/1
Harris English 80/1
Nick Watney 80/1
Ryan Moore 80/1
Billy Horschel 100/1
Ernie Els 100/1
Jonas Blixt 100/1
Paul Casey 100/1
Richard Sterne 100/1
Tim Clark 100/1
Francesco Molinari 125/1
JB Holmes 125/1
Matteo Manassero 125/1
Nicolas Colsaerts 125/1
Thorbjørn Olesen 125/1
Bo Van Pelt 150/1
Boo Weekley 150/1
Branden Grace 150/1
Fredrik Jacobson 150/1
Marc Leishman 150/1
Martin Laird 150/1
Padraig Harrington 150/1
Peter Hanson 150/1
George Coetzee 200/1
Gonzalo Fernandez-Castano 200/1