NFL Football Picks: Thanksgiving Day Props (11/25/10)

Last Updated: November 24th, 2010 by Adam Markowitz (Bankroll Sports Columnist)
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Thanksgiving Day always means that we have a fantastic set of games for NFL betting fans to sink their teeth into. This year is no exception, as the Detroit Lions, Dallas Cowboys, and New York Jets play host to the New England Patriots, New Orleans Saints, and Cincinnati Bengals respectively. Check out some of the best NFL prop picks for one of the biggest days in the NFL schedule.

Tom Brady Over/Under 265.5 Passing Yards
Common logic suggests that the Pats should be able to roll over the Lions, and if that’s the case, you would figure that Brady would be flying past the 265 yard barrier, right? Maybe not so much. Brady has actually only reached this passing total twice this year, including some games against some teams that aren’t all that great. The Lions have a terrible secondary, but if HC Bill Belichick has it his way, he is going to be able to utilize his running game significantly more than his passing game. With this being a 50/50 proposition that we need to beat, we’ll go with Brady Under 265.5 Passing Yards (+100 at Hollywood Sportsbook) on Thanksgiving Day.

Brandon Tate Yards On First Reception Over/Under 11.5 Yards
We know that Tate doesn’t catch a pass in every single game, and if he doesn’t make a reception, we are going to lose this prop, but we also know that this is the best deep threat that Brady has to work with. The Lions have an absolutely dreadful secondary as well. Tate has just 18 receptions this year, but nine of them have gone for at least a dozen yards. The former North Carolina Tar Heel should find a way to get that one reception necessary, and assuming he does, that catch should be Over 11.5 Yards (-115 at Hollywood Sportsbook).

Drew Brees Over/Under 1.5 Touchdown Passes
The Cowboys have really struggled with their secondary all season long, but there is a point that these NFL odds get a wee ridiculous. Brees has thrown for at least two TDs in six straight games and in eight of the ten this season, but we absolutely know that that isn’t going to keep up. Dallas gave Brees fits last year, especially up front in the trenches. This is going to be a tough task to get to for Brees, and at +220 odds, we feel like we are stealing Brees to go Under 1.5 TD Passes (+220 at Hollywood Sportsbook) against the Cowboys.

Jon Kitna Over/Under 244.5 Passing Yards
The Saints have one of the best secondaries in the NFL this year, and though this isn’t really a unit that you would really think would be able to shut down a team like Dallas, you might want to think again. Kitna is a great backup quarterback, but he is really no more than that: a backup quarterback. Asking him to reach the 250 yard passing mark at least half the time is going to be difficult, especially if New Orleans is the real deal. The Cowboys’ signal caller will stay Under 244.5 Passing Yards (-115 at Hollywood Sportsbook).

Will the Bengals Ever Have the Lead Against the Jets
The Bengals never really stood a chance against the Jets last year, as they were destroyed by them both in Week 17 and in the first round of the playoffs. However, for a team that has so many explosive offensive weapons against a team that tends to get bogged down at times, we tend to think that this is a sucker bet waiting to happen. The oddsmakers are begging you to take “No” at +150, but instead, we are going to be the role of the contrarians, saying that the Bengals Will Lead Against the Jets (-190 at Hollywood Sportsbook).

Terrell Owens Over/Under 73.5 Receiving Yards
Good ol’ TO might be a Pro Bowler this season, but he is about to step onto Revis Island to take on DB Darrelle Revis. Owens knows that he is going to see a lot of two of the best corners in football, and though Revis and DB Antonio Cromartie have combined for just one INT since Week 1 of the season, a lot of quarterbacks are wise to not throw their way. TO said that Revis was a one year wonder in the media, which sounds like fighting words to us. Now, let’s throw in the fact that he has only exceeded this number four times in ten games this year. The choice is simple. We have to go with Owens Under 73.5 Receiving Yards (-115 at Hollywood Sportsbook).

Shonn Greene Over/Under 50.5 Rushing Yards
Consider this a bit of a gut shot play. Greene really isn’t the featured back in the New York offense any longer, as RB LaDainian Tomlinson has really taken over. Greene basically made an entire career out of destroying the Bengals down the stretch last year, and this is still a team that is averaging the 23rd most rushing yards in the NFL. Greene has only gotten to this number four times this year, but he will make it five on Thursday. Go with Greene Over 50.5 Rushing Yards (-115 at Hollywood Sportsbook).

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Posted in NFL Football - Last Updated on Wednesday, November 24th, 2010 @ 11:26 pm (EST)
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