Posts Tagged ‘MNF predictions’

NFL Prop Picks: Denver Broncos vs. San Diego Chargers Tips 10/15

October 13th, 2012 by Adam Markowitz (Bankroll Sports Columnist) | Posted in NFL Football   Comments Off on NFL Prop Picks: Denver Broncos vs. San Diego Chargers Tips 10/15
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Full Broncos @ Chargers NFL Prop Sheet Listed Below

Broncos vs. ChargersThe San Diego Chargers and Denver Broncos are set to continue the 2012 NFL season, and as a part of our analysis of the Week 6 betting lines, we are taking a look at some of the best NFL props on the board for this crucial primetime fight.

Will the First Score Be a Touchdown or Field Goal?: This is just some simple math. The Broncos have scored 16 touchdowns against seven field goals this year. San Diego has 13 touchdowns and 12 field goals. Now just do some quick math. That’s 29 touchdowns and 19 field goals. Considering how badly QB Peyton Manning has played against the Chargers in his career (more on that in a second), some of those touchdown drives for the Broncos very well could turn into field goal drives. All we need is the first one to be that way around 40% of the time, and we’re going to be winners. First Score a Field Goal or Safety (+160)

Peyton Manning Over/Under 285.5 Passing Yards: Manning has averaged 304.0 passing yards per game in his career against the Chargers over the course of seven games. He has completed just 60.8 percent of his passes against them though, and he has a woeful quarterback rating of just 72.5 against them. Remember that this isn’t nearly the same Manning that had all of those great receiving options in Indianapolis. Yes, this Peyton Manning has averaged 299.8 passing yards per game this year, but there is a reason that this number has been lined a tad lower than these numbers that you see. The Chargers rank No. 20 in the NFL is passing, but they should be able to hold Manning under this very, very lofty passing total for Manning, who would much rather keep the football on the ground. Peyton Manning Passing Yards Under 285.5 (-115)

Will Joel Dreessen Score a Touchdown?: Dreessen is a nice little story this year, and he does have three trips to the end zone in five games. However, one of those touchdowns came on a pass which was never even intended for him and ended up just more or less falling into his hands. Dreessen only has 11 catches this year, and he clearly isn’t a threat to score a touchdown from anywhere more than a dozen or so yards away from the end zone. The Chargers haven’t allowed much to opposing tight ends this year, including just a pair of touchdowns over the course of the first five games of the campaign. It seems a heck of a lot more likely that TE Jacob Tamme scores than Dreessen, and we think that this prop is overstated. Joel Dreessen Doesn’t Score a Touchdown (-180)

Philip Rivers Passing Yards Over/Under 285.5: Once again, this is a very high number against a secondary that has some real talent in it. Rivers has had luck in his career against the Broncos, and there is no doubt that he is going to be asked to put the ball in the air quite a bit again in this one. However, Rivers has a running game at his disposal now with RB Ryan Mathews being back in the lineup and trusted with the football, and that is going to take some of the pressure off indeed. Rivers might come up near this number, but when push comes to shove, asking him to throw for over 286 yards would be averaging 4,500+ yards for a season. Rivers just isn’t going to be able to do that in all likelihood, especially knowing that he is averaging just 250.2 yards per game thus far on the campaign. Philip Rivers Passing Yards Under 285.5 (-115)

Denver Broncos vs. San Diego Chargers NFL Props @ BetOnline Sportsbook (as of 10/15/12):
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Score in the First 6 Minutes of the Game -120
No Score in the First 6 Minutes of the Game -110

Broncos Score First -115
Chargers Score First -115

First Score a Touchdown -200
First Score Not a Touchdown +160

Longest Touchdown of the Game Over 48.5 Yards -115
Longest Touchdown of the Game Under 48.5 Yards -115

Peyton Manning Completions Over 24.5 -130
Peyton Manning Completions Under 24.5 +100

Peyton Manning Longest Completion Over 39.5 Yards -115
Peyton Manning Longest Completion Under 39.5 Yards -115

Peyton Manning Passing Yards Over 285.5 -115
Peyton Manning Passing Yards Under 285.5 -115

Peyton Manning Touchdown Passes Over 1.5 -200
Peyton Manning Touchdown Passes Under 1.5 +160

Peyton Manning Throws an Interception -180
Peyton Manning Doesn’t Throw an Interception +140

Willis McGahee Rushing Yards Over 66.5 -115
Willis McGahee Rushing Yards Under 66.5 -115

Willis McGahee Scores a Touchdown +115
Willis McGahee Doesn’t Score a Touchdown -145

Demaryius Thomas Receptions Over 5 -115
Demaryius Thomas Receptions Under 5 -115

Demaryius Thomas Receiving Yards Over 85.5 -115
Demaryius Thomas Receiving Yards Under 85.5 -115

Demaryius Thomas Scores a Touchdown +105
Demaryius Thomas Doesn’t Score a Touchdown -125

Eric Decker Receptions Over 4.5 -130
Eric Decker Receptions Under 4.5 +100

Eric Decker Receiving Yards Over 62.5 -115
Eric Decker Receiving Yards Under 62.5 -115

Brandon Stokley Receptions Over 2.5 -140
Brandon Stokley Receptions Under 2.5 +110

Brandon Stokley Receiving Yards Over 34.5 -115
Brandon Stokley Receiving Yards Under 34.5 -115

Jacob Tamme Receptions Over 3.5 -150
Jacob Tamme Receptions Under 3.5 +120

Jacob Tamme Receiving Yards Over 40.5 -115
Jacob Tamme Receiving Yards Under 40.5 -115

Joel Dreessen Receptions Over 2.5 -105
Joel Dreessen Receptions Under 2.5 -125

Joel Dreessen Scores a Touchdown +145
Joel Dreessen Doesn’t Score a Touchdown -185

Wesley Woodyard Solo + Assisted Tackles Over 7.5 +100
Wesley Woodyard Solo + Assisted Tackles Under 7.5 -130

Matt Prater Total Points Over 7.5 +100
Matt Prater Total Points Under 7.5 -130

Philip Rivers Completions Over 22.5 -125
Philip Rivers Completions Under 22.5 -105

Philip Rivers Passing Yards Over 285.5 -115
Philip Rivers Passing Yards Under 285.5 -115

Philip Rivers Touchdown Passes Over 1.5 -160
Philip Rivers Touchdown Passes Under 1.5 +130

Philip Rivers Throws an Interception -240
Philip Rivers Doesn’t Thrown an Interception +180

Ryan Mathews Rushing Yards Over 75.5 -115
Ryan Mathews Rushing Yards Under 75.5 -115

Ryan Mathews Scores a Touchdown +115
Ryan Mathews Doesn’t Score a Touchdown -145

Malcom Floyd Receptions Over 4.5 +110
Malcom Floyd Receptions Under 4.5 -140

Malcom Floyd Receiving Yards Over 70.5 -115
Malcom Floyd Receiving Yards Under 70.5 -115

Malcom Floyd Scores a Touchdown +140
Malcom Floyd Doesn’t Score a Touchdown -180

Robert Meachem Receptions Over 2.5 -115
Robert Meachem Receptions Under 2.5 -115

Robert Meachem Longest Reception Over 27.5 Yards -115
Robert Meachem Longest Reception Under 27.5 Yards -115

Antonio Gates Receptions Over 4 -150
Antonio Gates Receptions Under 4 +120

Antonio Gates Receiving Yards Over 55.5 -115
Antonio Gates Receiving Yards Under 55.5 -115

Eddie Royal Receptions Over 2.5 -115
Eddie Royal Receptions Under 2.5 -115

Takeo Spikes Total Tackles Over 5.5 +115
Takeo Spikes Total Tackles Under 5.5 -145

Nick Novak Total Points Over 7.5 -120
Nick Novak Total Points Under 7.5 -110

NFL Prop Picks: Houston Texans vs. New York Jets Predictions 10/8

October 8th, 2012 by Adam Markowitz (Bankroll Sports Columnist) | Posted in NFL Football   Comments Off on NFL Prop Picks: Houston Texans vs. New York Jets Predictions 10/8
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Full Texans @ Jets NFL Prop Sheet Listed Below

The New York Jets and Houston Texans are set to continue the 2012 NFL season, and as a part of our analysis of the Week 5 betting lines, we are taking a look at some of the best NFL props on the board for this crucial primetime fight.

Longest Touchdown Over/Under 40.5 Yards: The Jets sure as heck aren’t driving down the field and scoring all that many touchdowns in this game, so if they are going to get the job done and get into the end zone, it is going to come from quite a ways out. Houston meanwhile, has all of the cards in its control on Monday, knowing that it can spread the field and attack this Jets secondary, which is severely depleted. We saw Head Coach Gary Kubiak go after DB Champ Bailey and DB Tracy Porter of the Denver Broncos time and time again two weeks ago, and that might be the game plan again in this one. Look for QB Matt Schaub to find one of his streaking receivers down the field at some point for a long score. We think there will be a couple of these big ones that hit the board when push comes to shove on Monday. Longest Touchdown Over 40.5 Yards (-115)

Arian Foster Total Rushing Yards Over/Under 103.5: We might be certifiably insane to go against Foster in a game like this one, but we think that Houston is going to air it out a bit more. RB Ben Tate is likely out of the fold, and he is certainly in the doghouse, but Kubiak wants to keep Foster fresh, meaning he probably won’t touch the ball more than 25 times as he has done at times this year. The problem for the New York defense has actually been stopping the run this year, as it has set up the secondary to get crushed for long passes. Still, Foster isn’t going to rush for a number this big more often than not in this type of a spot, especially in a game where Houston might prove to be a tad sluggish offensively. Arian Foster Rushing Yards Under 103.5 (-115)

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Mark Sanchez Total Passing Yards Over/Under 205.5: The Houston secondary is holding teams down to just 182.8 passing yards per game this year, and though there haven’t been a lot of the big time quarterbacks on the schedule yet, it isn’t like Sanchez is all that much better than Ryan Tannehill or Blaine Gabbert. The man they call “The Sanchise” has thrown for 103, 306, and 138 yards over the course of the last three weeks, and in spite of the fact that Head Coach Rex Ryan is sticking with the man from USC as his quarterback, the pressure has to be mounting that the time is near for QB Tim Tebow to get the call. The truth of the matter is that we don’t think Sanchez makes it through the third quarter before getting replaced, and especially in a game where he won’t have WR Santonio Holmes, WR Stephen Hill, or TE Dustin Keller. Mark Sanchez Under 205.5 Passing Yards (-115)

Shonn Greene Rushing Yards Over/Under 55.5: Greene almost certainly has to get 15-20 carries in this game, unless he is replaced by RB Bilal Powell at some point. The problem that we see with Greene though, is that he is in a time share and has lost control of that time split at this point. Sure, while the Jets are still in this game and not playing catch up, it’ll be Greene that gets the majority of the time. However, even with 20 carries, getting 55 yards against this Houston defense isn’t a guarantee. We’re not taking our chances. Too many bad things could happen on Monday to Greene. Shonn Greene Rushing Yards Under 55.5 (-115)

Houston Texans vs. New York Jets NFL Props @ BetOnline Sportsbook (as of 10/8/12):
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Score in the First 7 Minutes of the Game -135
No Score in the First 7 Minutes of the Game +105

Texans Score First -190
Jets Score First +155

First Score a Touchdown -150
First Score Not a Touchdown +120

Longest Touchdown of the Game Over 40.5 Yards -115
Longest Touchdown of the Game Under 40.5 Yards -115

Matt Schaub Completions Over 20 -130
Matt Schaub Completions Under 20 +100

Matt Schaub Longest Completion Over 37.5 Yards -115
Matt Schaub Longest Completion Under 37.5 Yards -115

Matt Schaub Passing Yards Over 240.5 -115
Matt Schaub Passing Yards Under 240.5 -115

Matt Schaub Touchdown Passes Over 1.5 -130
Matt Schaub Touchdown Passes Under 1.5 +100

Matt Schaub Throws an Interception -180
Matt Schaub Doesn’t Throw an Interception +140

Arian Foster Rushing Yards Over 103.5 -115
Arian Foster Rushing Yards Under 103.5 -115

Arian Foster Scores a Touchdown -180
Arian Foster Doesn’t Score a Touchdown +140

Andre Johnson Receptions Over 5 -130
Andre Johnson Receptions Under 5 +100

Andre Johnson Receiving Yards Over 76.5 -115
Andre Johnson Receiving Yards Under 76.5 -115

Andre Johnson Scores a Touchdown +120
Andre Johnson Doesn’t Score a Touchdown -150

Kevin Walter Receptions Over 3 +120
Kevin Walter Receptions Under 3 -150

Kevin Walter Scores a Touchdown +200
Kevin Walter Doesn’t Score a Touchdown -260

Owen Daniels Receptions Over 4 -120
Owen Daniels Receptions Under 4 -110

Owen Daniels Receiving Yards Over 55.5 -115
Owen Daniels Receiving Yards Under 55.5 -115

Owen Daniels Scores a Touchdown +140
Owen Daniels Doesn’t Score a Touchdown -180

James Casey Receptions Over 3 +110
James Casey Reception Under 3 -140

Brian Cushing Solo + Assisted Tackles Over 7.5 -105
Brian Cushing Solo + Assisted Tackles Under 7.5 -125

Shayne Graham Total Points Over 7.5 -115
Shayne Graham Total Points Under 7.5 -115

Mark Sanchez Completions Over 18 -115
Mark Sanchez Completions Under 18 -115

Mark Sanchez Passing Yards Over 205.5 -115
Mark Sanchez Passing Yards Under 205.5 -115

Mark Sanchez Touchdown Passes Over 1.5 +140
Mark Sanchez Touchdown Passes Under 1.5 -180

Mark Sanchez Throws an Interception -250
Mark Sanchez Doesn’t Thrown an Interception +190

Shonn Greene Rushing Yards Over 52.5 -115
Shonn Greene Rushing Yards Under 52.5 -115

Shonn Greene Scores a Touchdown +140
Shonn Greene Doesn’t Score a Touchdown -180

Tim Tebow Yards on First Rushing Attempt Over 4.5 +100
Tim Tebow Yards on First Rushing Attempt Under 4.5 -130

Jeremy Kerley Receptions Over 3.5 -115
Jeremy Kerley Receptions Under 3.5 -115

Jeremy Kerley Scores a Touchdown +170
Jeremy Kerley Doesn’t Score a Touchdown -220

Chaz Schilens Receptions Over 2.5 -150
Chaz Schilens Receptions Under 2.5 +120

Stephen Hill Yards on First Reception Over 11.5 -115
Stephen Hill Yards on First Reception Under 11.5 -115

David Harris Solo + Assisted Tackles Over 8.5 -125
David Harris Solo + Assisted Tackles Under 8.5 -105

Nick Folk Total Points Over 7.5 +115
Nick Folk Total Points Under 7.5 -145