NFL Prop Picks: Denver Broncos vs. Atlanta Falcons Predictions 9/17

Last Updated: September 17th, 2012 by Adam Markowitz (Bankroll Sports Columnist)
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Full Broncos @ Falcons NFL Prop Sheet Listed Below

Peyton Manning BroncosThe Atlanta Falcons and Denver Broncos are set to continue the 2012 NFL season, and as a part of our analysis of the Week 2 betting lines, we are taking a look at some of the best NFL props on the board for this crucial primetime fight.

Tony Gonzalez Over/Under 4.5 Receptions: The truth of the matter is that the Broncos have a heck of a defense that is built from the outside, in. The corners are great. The outside linebackers are great. The rest of the defense… not so much, especially with LB DJ Williams still suspended (more on that in a second). That means that QB Matt Ryan might have a difficult time working the ball to either WR Julio Jones or WR Roddy White, depending upon which one ends up drawing DB Champ Bailey and which might get the free run against a third defensive back in the slot. That means that Gonzalez might have some free runs as well, as he is going to be the man in the middle of the offense that could be the beneficiary. Gonzo doesn’t have the wheels that he once did, but he is still a reliable target that is going to be good for 80-90 receptions this year, and this will be a game in which he sees the ball quite a bit. Tony Gonzalez Over 4.5 Receptions (-145)

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Will Michael Turner Score a Touchdown?: We would really like the chance to back Turner to get beyond 62.5 rushing yards, as we know that he is going to do that more often than not. Still, RB Jacquizz Rodgers is going to be a part of the ground attack this year, as the team tries to save some of the tread that might be left on Turner’s tires. Still, “The Burner” is the goal line back, and there should still be plenty of chances to score in this game. Not every touchdown can be pilfered by Matty Ice and the passing attack, and that means that Turner should be in the end zone more often than not. We expect to see him dancing in the end zone with a short score relatively early on, and he might be in for multiple end zone celebrations. Michael Turner Scores a Touchdown (+100)

Peyton Manning Over/Under 1.5 TD Passes: Seems like a slam dunk, right? Maybe not so much. Manning knows that he has a defense unlike any defense that he has ever had before in his career, and he has a ground game that is largely unlike any ground game that he has had at any point in his career. We really like all of Manning’s ‘unders’ on Monday night, but we especially like this one. Denver won’t score more than four times tonight, and though four touchdowns likely means that Manning is going past his number, perhaps the team doesn’t score that often. RB Willis McGahee should be able to bull into the end zone for the first time this year, and that will really hurt the chances of Manning to throw for at least two scores. We’ll take our chances that he is held with just one TD pass on the evening at significantly plus odds. Peyton Manning Under 1.5 TD Passes (+160)

Over/Under 8.5 Punts: We’re going to back the ‘under’ in this game for punts, but it’s not necessarily because we think that there are going to be all these points on the board. Sure, there are going to be more points in this one than the average game, but in the end, the reason that we think that there will be fewer than nine punts is because of the time of possession that the Broncos are going to look to hold. If Manning has his way, he is going to possession the pigskin for 35 minutes or so of this game, and he is going to have a total of about nine drives to work with. If there are a total of 18 drives in this game, nine of them won’t end in punts. Total Punts Under 8.5 (-130)

Denver Broncos vs. Atlanta Falcons NFL Props @ 5Dimes Sportsbook (as of 9/17/12):
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Score in the First 6 Minutes of the Game -135
No Score in the First 6 Minutes of the Game +105

Broncos Score First +100
Falcons Score First -130

First Score a Touchdown -200
First Score Not a Touchdown +160

Longest Touchdown of the Game Over 50.5 Yards -115
Longest Touchdown of the Game Under 50.5 Yards -115

Longest Field Goal of the Game Over 44.5 Yards -140
Longest Field Goal of the Game Under 44.5 Yards +110

Shortest Field Goal of the Game Over 25.5 Yards -130
Shortest Field Goal of the Game Under 25.5 Yards +100

Total Field Goals Made Over 3.5 +125
Total Field Goals Made Under 3.5 -155

Total Punts Over 8.5 +100
Total Punts Under 8.5 -130

Total Sacks Over 3.5 -115
Total Sacks Under 3.5 -115

Defensive or Special Teams Touchdown +140
Not a Defensive or Special Teams Touchdown -170

Peyton Manning Completions Over 25.5 -130
Peyton Manning Completions Under 25.5 +100

Peyton Manning Passing Yards Over 270.5 -125
Peyton Manning Passing Yards Under 270.5 -105

Peyton Manning Total Touchdown Passes Over 1.5 -200
Peyton Manning Total Touchdown Passes Under 1.5 +160

Peyton Manning Throws an Interception -155
Peyton Manning Doesn’t Throw an Interception +125

Willis McGahee Rushing Yards Over 64.5 -115
Willis McGahee Rushing Yards Under 64.5 -115

Willis McGahee Scores a Touchdown +140
Willis McGahee Doesn’t Score a Touchdown -180

Demaryius Thomas Scores a Touchdown +110
Demaryius Thomas Doesn’t Score a Touchdown -140

Eric Decker Over 5 Receptions -110
Eric Decker Under 5 Receptions -120

Eric Decker Over 63.5 Receiving Yards -115
Eric Decker Under 63.5 Receiving Yards -115

Jacob Tamme Scores a Touchdown +140
Jacob Tamme Doesn’t Score a Touchdown -180

Brandon Stokley Yards On First Reception Over 10.5 -115
Brandon Stokley Yards On First Reception Under 10.5 -115

Matt Ryan Completions Over 23.5 -105
Matt Ryan Completions Under 23.5 -115

Matt Ryan Passing Yards Over 293.5 -120
Matt Ryan Passing Yards Under 293.5 -110

Matt Ryan Touchdown Passes Over 1.5 -225
Matt Ryan Touchdown Passes Under 1.5 +175

Matt Ryan Throws an Interception -170
Matt Ryan Doesn’t Throw an Interception +135

Michael Turner Over 62.5 Rushing Yards +100
Michael Turner Under 62.5 Rushing Yards -130

Michael Turner Scores a Touchdown +100
Michael Turner Doesn’t Score a Touchdown -130

Julio Jones Over 85.5 Receiving Yards -115
Julio Jones Under 85.5 Receiving Yards -115

Julio Jones Scores a Touchdown -140
Julio Jones Doesn’t Score a Touchdown +110

Roddy White Over 5.5 Receptions -135
Roddy White Under 5.5 Receptions +105

Roddy White Over 83.5 Receiving Yards -115
Roddy White Under 83.5 Receiving Yards -115

Tony Gonzalez Over 4.5 Receptions -145
Tony Gonzalez Under 4.5 Receptions +115

Tony Gonzalez Scores a Touchdown +110
Tony Gonzalez Doesn’t Score a Touchdown -140

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Posted in NFL Football - Last Updated on Monday, September 17th, 2012 @ 6:32 am (EST)
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