NFL Prop Picks: Texans vs. Patriots Prop Sheet Predictions 12/10

Last Updated: December 9th, 2012 by Adam Markowitz (Bankroll Sports Columnist)
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Full Texans @ Patriots NFL Prop Sheet Listed Below

Patriots CheerleadersThe New England Patriots and Houston Texans are set to continue the 2012 NFL season, and as a part of our analysis of the Week 14 betting lines, we are taking a look at some of the best NFL props on the board for this crucial primetime fight.

Will Either Team Score in the First 6:00 Of the Game?: Though the Texans are averaging right near 30 points per game this year, and though the Patriots score 30+ (heck, sometimes even 50+) at home against virtually everyone, both teams tend to come out of the blocks a little more conservative. Houston especially, loves to get the ball rolling with RB Arian Foster and work on that stretch play that they run better than anyone in the league. They tend to take their time and be methodical. The defense is going to do what it can to make sure that QB Tom Brady doesn’t get the ball up the field in a hurry, and as long as WR Wes Welker and the deep threats all stay in front of the Houston DBs, Head Coach Gary Kubiak is going to be a happy man. There’s a reason that this prop is set at 6:00 and not at the 5:30 or 5:00 that we would be expecting for a game that has a ‘total’ that is posted this high. No Score in the First 6:00 (+105)

Matt Schaub Over/Under 260.5 Passing Yards: Though we know that we are going to see plenty of Foster in this game, we are going to see Schaub put the ball up in the air as well. When the props post on WR Andre Johnson, we think that he is going to be in for a huge game when push comes to shove. Johnson has had 28 catches over the course of the last three games, and he had solid games against both the Broncos and the Ravens this year when he was called upon, including catching a 60-yard touchdown pass against Denver. Schaub has already thrown for over 3,000 yards this year, though we probably should take out that 527 yard game against the Jaguars from consideration for this. Still, that’s three out of five games getting past the 260-yard mark, and if you believe that the Texans are going to play this one from behind at any point, this is a prop that you figure should be a winner in a big time game. Matt Schaub Over 260.5 Passing Yards (-115)

Arian Foster Rushing Yards Over/Under 92.5: Just because Schaub and Johnson could have a heck of a lot of fun on Monday doesn’t mean that Foster can’t as well. Remember that he has had at least 90 yards in five out of six games, and he is going to be up against a New England defense that has historically been weak against ground games. Look at Houston’s toughest opponents this year and see what Foster did to them. He ran for 105 on Denver and 98 on Baltimore, not to mention 102 on Chicago. That’s an awfully good indication, especially off of a week in which he only carried the ball 14 total times, that Foster is going to be in for a much, much better day when push comes to shove this time around versus New England. Arian Foster Rushing Yards Over 92.5 (-115)

Tom Brady Over/Under 1.5 Touchdown Passes: One might think that this is a bit of a trick play when looking at the NFL betting lines. After all, Brady should easily be able to throw for two touchdowns, even against this stout Houston defense, right? The truth of the matter is that the Texans only rank 19th against the pass this year, and Brady had played six games in a row with at least two touchdown passes before last week’s narrow escape from the Miami Dolphins. Brady now has 25 TDs against just four picks this year, and it is clear that he is going to have his opportunities to score in this game. Houston’s defense is good, but this is Brady at home. Sure, he only had one score against the Broncos at Gillette this year, but remember that we only have to win this one five out of seven times to make it worthwhile. There’s no way that Brady is going to have three games out of seven in which he doesn’t throw at least two TD passes. Tom Brady Passing Touchdowns Over 1.5 (-250)

Houston Texans vs. New England Patriots NFL Props @ Diamond Sportsbook (as of 12/10/12):
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Score in the First 6:00 Minutes of the Game -135
No Score in the First 6:00 Minutes of the Game +105

Texans Score First +105
Patriots Score First -135

First Score a Touchdown -210
First Score Not a Touchdown +165

Longest Touchdown of the Game Over 50.5 Yards -115
Longest Touchdown of the Game Under 50.5 Yards -115

Matt Schaub Passing Yards Over 260.5 -115
Matt Schaub Passing Yards Under 260.5 -115

Matt Schaub Touchdown Passes Over 1.5 -140
Matt Schaub Touchdown Passes Under 1.5 +110

Arian Foster Rushing Yards Over 92.5 (-115)
Arian Foster Rushing Yards Under 92.5 (-115)

Tom Brady Pass Completions Over 25 -115
Tom Brady Pass Completions Under 25 -115

Tom Brady Touchdown Passes Over 1.5 -250
Tom Brady Touchdown Passes Under 1.5 +190

Tom Brady Throws An Interception -130
Tom Brady Doesn’t Throw An Interception +100

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Posted in NFL Football - Last Updated on Sunday, December 9th, 2012 @ 12:50 pm (EST)
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