Posts Tagged ‘Week 13 picks’

NFL Football Picks: Monday Night Football Props (12/13/10)

December 12th, 2010 by Adam Markowitz (Bankroll Sports Columnist) | Posted in NFL Football   1 Comment »
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The playoff push will be the main topic in the AFC on Monday Night Football this week, as the Baltimore Ravens and Houston Texans are going to be fighting it out with their postseason hopes on the line. The Texans probably need this one to have any chance of making it to the second season, while Baltimore at least has a little bit of leeway. Our NFL prop picks for MNF are always ready to go here at Bankroll Sports, and this Monday night is no exception!

Joe Flacco Over/Under 261.5 Passing Yards
We wouldn’t necessarily care what the name was on the front or the back of the jersey in this one. The mass majority of quarterbacks are going to be throwing for at least 262 yards against this Houston secondary no matter how much of a blowout the game really turns out to be. Save a three INT game for Glover Quin against arguably the worst starting quarterback the NFL has seen in years, QB Rusty Smith, the Texans have had absolutely no luck stopping anyone. Head Coach John Harbaugh has made a more concerted effort at throwing the ball this year to take some of the pressure off of RB Ray Rice and the running game. The offensive line is going to be able to let Flacco just stand in the pocket and pick apart this horrendous secondary, and there should be absolutely no doubt that he goes Over 261.5 Passing Yards (-115 at Hollywood Sportsbook) on Monday Night Football.

Anquan Boldin Over/Under 66.5 Receiving Yards
You know where we’re going with this one. All of the receiving options are particularly strong in this game for the Ravens, and this is probably the best of the bunch. ‘Quan is going to be matched up with Quin the majority of the game, and he is clearly the weakest link in that Houston secondary. Truth be told, Boldin has only gone past this number five times this season, and three of those five came in the first four games of the year. However, these secondaries that he has been going against haven’t been nearly as bad as the one that he is going to be facing on Monday. We tend to believe that this could be a career day for the former Florida State Seminole. Boldin should fly Over 66.5 Receiving Yards (-115 at Hollywood Sportsbook).

Matt Schaub Over/Under 245.5 Passing Yards
Things really haven’t gone all that well for the Texans’ signal caller this year, as he doesn’t have the types of numbers that warrant him being a Pro Bowler this year as many suggested at the start of the season. Still, this is probably going to be a situation in which this team has to play from behind virtually the entire way, just as we saw last Thursday night against the Philadelphia Eagles. Though this Baltimore defense is only allowing 208.0 yards per game through the air, we have to remember that sack yardage does not count against us in this one. There have also been some dreadful passing games run up against these Ravens, including those of the Pittsburgh Steelers (twice), that of the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, and that of the Cleveland Browns. This is a great spot, especially in the second half, for Schaub to go soaring Over 245.5 Passing Yards (-115 at Hollywood Sportsbook) against the Ravens.

Will Arian Foster Score a Touchdown?
Last week, we backed Foster on this prop on Thursday Night Football, and we are going to be utilizing him once again. Of the 33 offensive touchdowns that the Texans have scored this year, Foster has found pay dirt 15 times, virtually every other touchdown. He has touched the ball 296 times already this season and is clearly the goal line back as well. The only issue that we have here is if the Ravens just find a way to really shut the Texans down all together. But, seeing how this game is at home and that Houston is prone to scoring at least 20 points or so here, there is no reason to believe that Foster won’t get the job done and put six on the board at least once. He has scored at least one TD in eight of the team’s 12 games this year, giving us a great percentage on a very easy prop. Foster Will Score a Touchdown (-125 at Hollywood Sportsbook).

NFL Picks: New York Jets @ New England Patriots Keys to the Game

December 5th, 2010 by Adam Markowitz (Bankroll Sports Columnist) | Posted in NFL Football   Comments Off on NFL Picks: New York Jets @ New England Patriots Keys to the Game

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The New York Jets and New England Patriots have a ton riding on the line on Monday Night Football. Not only is the winning team going to give a catastrophic loss to the other, but the victors will pull a game ahead of the rest of the field in the AFC and will most likely hold the tiebreaker for the rest of the year over the loser in the AFC East race. Obviously, it’s going to give the winner a huge advantage. If that team can hold on to this advantage over the last quarter of the season, that team will only have to play two home games to reach the Super Bowl. The loser will most likely have to win three games on the road. In order to prepare you to make your NFL picks for the game, we have the three keys to the game to determine which team is going to beat the NFL betting lines on the day.

Key #1: Mark Sanchez Cannot Make Mistakes
QB Mark Sanchez has really done a nice job in recent games of getting the ball up the field. He has proven that the Jets are no longer just a team that runs the football to win games, as New York is averaging 212.4 yards per game through the air. That’s still only good enough for a modest No. 20 ranking in the NFL, but at least he has shown that he can make big passes. We know that his receiving corps is good enough to get the job done as well, especially with WR Jerricho Cotchery coming back into the lineup this week after dealing with his groin injury for the past two games. With names like Cotchery, WR Braylon Edwards, WR Santonio Holmes, and TE Dustin Keller to deal with, Sanchez has no excuse not to be able to move the football against a defense that ranks dead last in the NFL against the pass at 288.5 yards per game. The key isn’t so much going to be yards, though. It’s going to be turnovers. Sanchez’s eight INTs this year is way down from a season last year in which he challenged for the most blunders in the league, but all eight of those picks have come in his L/6 games. He has thrown at least one INT in all six. Against the Pats in Week 2, Sanchez completed 70.0 percent of his passes for 220 yards with three scores, but again, the key was no turnovers. The Pats need to force him into some mistakes, while New York is just hoping that its signal caller can look more like the man that beat this team in Week 2 and less like the one that has been careless with the pigskin of late.

Key #2: Rex Ryan’s Defense Must Have No Fear
In the first half of the clash in Week 2 against the Pats, the Jets really didn’t come after QB Tom Brady. He did the mass majority of his damage in that game in the second quarter, as that is when he threw both of his touchdown passes. After that though, the dogs were let loose, and New York started to cause all sorts of ruckus in the New England backfield. Brady couldn’t figure out what was going on, and he could not get the Patriots on the scoreboard in the entire half, something that is absolutely a rarity for him. DE Jason Taylor did have the only sack in the game for the men in green, but he was one of the many that was all over the backfield and all in Brady’s face in that second half. The Jets cannot sit back and let Brady pick them apart in this one for any period of time. Their defensive backs are certainly good enough to contend with what New England has to offer in man coverage 100% of the time. Sometimes, you’ll get burned. Sometimes, you’ll cause some big turnovers as well. Those picks are going to be key, and the Jets got two of them last time around. They have to come after Brady right from the start, especially on the road on Monday Night Football.

Key #3: New England Has To Get A Ground Game Going
Truth be told, this has been what has hurt Brady the most this year. RB Kevin Faulk is out for the season with an ACL tear, and RB Fred Taylor has been out of the fold for the last seven games with a toe injury. In Week 2, New England picked up New York castoff RB Danny Woodhead, and in just eight games, he has picked up 344 yards on the ground and 230 through the air. Though the majority of the carries are still going to RB BenJarvus Green-Ellis, Woodhead is going to get his chances. This offensive line badly needs to step up and embrace the idea of attacking the Jets in the trenches, something that is usually going the other direction when the New York ‘D’ is on the field. If Ellis and Woodhead cannot get anything going in the rushing game or even in the screen and short pass department, Brady is going to just be a dead man walking in this pocket. You know that, especially with a long week to prepare after playing on Thanksgiving night, that Rex Ryan and company have been drawing up some new schemes to prepare for the Brady aerial assault. The running game needs to be the great equalizer for New England to win on Monday Night Football.

NFL Football Picks: Monday Night Football Props (12/6/10)

December 5th, 2010 by Adam Markowitz (Bankroll Sports Columnist) | Posted in NFL Football   Comments Off on NFL Football Picks: Monday Night Football Props (12/6/10)
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Monday Night Football has never been bigger than this! The New York Jets and New England Patriots are going to fight it out under the bright lights this week, and the winner will have a one game edge in the AFC East and one the No. 1 overall seed in the AFC with just four games to play. You want NFL prop picks? We’ve got ’em right here at Bankroll Sports!

Mark Sanchez Over/Under 235.5 Passing Yards
“The Sanchise” is here! Sanchez had four games in a row in which he reached this total with ease before throwing for just 166 yards in a blowout over the Cincinnati Bengals on Thanksgiving Day. The key is going to be having this game stay remotely close. The Jets aren’t going to blow out the Pats in any way, shape, or form, and when push comes to shove, you know that Sanchez is going to have to throw the football to beat the Patriots. He threw for 220 yards in the first meeting in Week 2, but now, WR Santonio Holmes is in the lineup as well, giving him one more tremendous deep threat that he can get the football to. Things aren’t always pretty for Sanchez, but he should be able to figure out how to get there in this one. Unless all of a sudden, the New England secondary finds a way to shut down this core of receivers, we don’t see how Sanchez does anything but go Over 235.5 Passing Yards (-115 at Hollywood Sportsbook) on Monday Night Football.

LaDainian Tomlinson Over/Under 54.5 Rushing Yards
Tomlinson might have some of the numbers on the season, but he is starting to break down quite a bit. This is a man that averaged less than four yards per carry last year, and he is starting to look more like that man in recent weeks. Over his first five games, LT averaged 5.6, 6.9, 4.7, 7.0, and 4.7 yards per carry. Since that point, he has averaged 3.4, 2.7, 3.7, 2.7, 3.2, 3.0, and 3.8 yards per carry. There is going to be a point that Tomlinson is going to get fewer carries than RB Shonn Greene. When you’re talking about a man that probably isn’t going to get more than a dozen carries or so, it’s hard to think that he is going to be able to get more than 50 yards or so. Back LT Under 54.5 Rushing Yards (-115 at Hollywood Sportsbook).

Santonio Holmes Over/Under 4.5 Receptions
It seems as though Holmes is really becoming the top target for QB Mark Sanchez. We aren’t so sure whether or not this is going to be a match made in heaven for some time to come, but we do know that the former Pittsburgh Steeler has at least five receptions in four straight games. He only had a total of ten receptions in his first three after coming back from his suspension that covered the first four games of the regular season. Again, New England’s defense is probably going to prone to the passing game in this one, and we know that if Sanchez is going to be throwing the ball more often, he is going to be doing so to Holmes as well. This is a nice spot for Holmes to go Over 4.5 Receptions (-125 at Hollywood Sportsbook) against the Pats.

Danny Woodhead Over/Under 59.5 Rushing + Receiving Yards
Head Coach Bill Belichick has this knack for giving payback to players that have come from past teams, and this could be the perfect situation for Woodhead to shine. This is a man that has really done a nice job filling in for a rushing attack that hasn’t been that stellar, and he has at least a pair of receptions in each of his last seven games since really getting into the fold with the Pats after starting the year with the Jets. Woodhead is probably going to touch the ball about 14-16 times over the course of this game, and potentially even more if Belichick is content to try to let Woodhead stick it to his previous team. Don’t be shocked to see him fly Over 59.5 Rushing + Receiving Yards (-115 at Hollywood Sportsbook).

NFL Football Picks: Sunday Night Football Props (12/5/10)

December 5th, 2010 by Adam Markowitz (Bankroll Sports Columnist) | Posted in NFL Football   Comments Off on NFL Football Picks: Sunday Night Football Props (12/5/10)
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First place in the AFC North is going to be on the line on Sunday Night Football when the Baltimore Ravens face the Pittsburgh Steelers. You can bet when these two teams meet up with one another that fireworks are going to fly, so don’t miss out on the action! Check out our NFL prop picks for this Sunday Night Football encounter.

Rashard Mendenhall Over/Under 77.5 Rushing Yards
This is going to be one of the more interesting NFL prop picks this weekend, as Mendenhall probably doesn’t match up all that well against the Baltimore defense. However, the Steelers’ top back is in a great situation for this prop because he is probably going to tote the rock at least 20-25 times, if not more, especially considering the fact that QB Ben Roethlisberger is dealing with a broken foot. Mendenhall has carried the ball at least 22 times in three of his last four overall, and if he does that again, he really should be able to get to this type of a total. We have to be careful, because the Steelers’ back does only have five games this year above that number, but we tend to believe that this will be game No. 6. Mendenhall will go Over 77.5 Rushing Yards (-115 at Hollywood Sportsbook) on Sunday Night Football.

Joe Flacco Over/Under 21.5 Completions
“Joe Cool” completed 24 passes the last time that these two teams met, and he is probably going to be called upon quite a few times in this one. The Steelers are just impossible to run against, and Head Coach John Harbaugh isn’t a dummy. Flacco has completed at least 71 percent of his passes in three of his last four games, and he completed 65 percent against the Steelers on the road. Baltimore quite often uses the pass as an extension of the running game, using short passes to RB Ray Rice and flanker screens that are nothing more than long handoffs. This is also going to be the way to get men like LB James Harrison off of Flacco’s back. The deep game will be there, but we don’t believe that the Ravens are going to have the desire to use it all that often. Back Flacco going Over 21.5 Completions (-115 at Hollywood Sportsbook).

Ray Rice Over/Under 100.5 Rushing + Receiving Yards
Rice is the type of running back that can find a way to get his yards in this game, but this is just that tough of a situation that we aren’t so sure about. We know that Rice isn’t going to beat us on the ground in all likelihood, as the Steelers are allowing just 64 rushing yards per game. The man from Rutgers isn’t going to be an exception to that rule, especially in a situation where RB Willis McGahee will take some of his career. If Rice is going to beat us, he’s going to do so in the passing game, and if he is doing that, we are capitalizing on our QB Joe Flacco completions prop. Rice doesn’t often take passes a long way, so we aren’t worried about taking that screen pass 50 yards. When push comes to shove, Rice should stay Under 100.5 Rushing + Receiving Yards (-115 at Hollywood Sportsbook) in this battle against the Steelers.

Ray Lewis Over/Under 8.5 Tackles + Assists
We don’t normally play these types of props, but this seems to be the right time to back a linebacker to go past his total. We know that Lewis is the heart and soul of this defense, and he usually turns it up even one more notch when playing at home, particularly in big time games like this one. With QB Ben Roethlisberger in some trouble with his foot, we’ve already established that RB Rashard Mendenhall is going to get his carries. Pittsburgh usually doesn’t get all that cute, as most of its carries are right up the gut. That’s where Mr. Ray Lewis is waiting, and he usually doesn’t make mistakes. Lewis had nine tackles in that first game, and he should have no problem going Over 8.5 Tackles + Assists (-115 at Hollywood Sportsbook).

NCAA Football Picks: Oregon Ducks @ Oregon State Beavers Keys to the Game

December 3rd, 2010 by Adam Markowitz (Bankroll Sports Columnist) | Posted in College Football   1 Comment »

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The Oregon Ducks are just one game away from the BCS Championship, but standing in their way are their hated arch rivals, the Oregon State Beavers. This game is known as the Civil War for a reason, as you won’t find two teams that despise each other as much as these two do. Check out the keys to winning this game for both sides and the things that you must remember before making your NCAA football picks on this game.

Key #1: Stopping LaMichael James
Good luck, Oregon State. The Beavers rank No. 82 in the nation against the rush at 165.43 yards per game, and they have been absolutely wrecked by some of the best running teams on their schedule. Fortunately, we have a lot of great games to compare this one to, but unfortunately for the Beavs, none of them have turned out all that well. The TCU Horned Frogs rolled off 278 yards on the ground, the Boise State Broncos racked up 178, while the Stanford Cardinal had 167. Though these three teams are all phenomenal squads, none of them have LaMichael James on their roster. Simply put, this is the best and most dynamic running back in college today, and he proves it week in and week out. James already has 1,568 rushing yards and a total of 20 TDs in just ten games this year, and he is pacing a rushing attack that is averaging 306.6 yards per game on the season. If Oregon State can’t at least slow this unit down on the ground and keep James relatively in check (and by that, we mean in the near 100ish yard range), there isn’t much hope for knocking off the best team in the country.

Key #2: You Must Believe, Oregon State!
The Beavers have had their backs to the wall a number of times before, but probably never really like this. They’re a 5-6 team right now that is certainly one of the best 40 or so teams in the country. They have fallen upon hard times because of a brutal schedule, and one absolutely unforgiveable slip up at home against the Washington State Cougars shouldn’t be the difference between them going to a bowl game and not going to one. The Civil War has been won before, right here at Reser Stadium, and Oregon State has blown away the Rose Bowl and National Championship hopes for the Ducks in the past. Oregon is a great team. There’s no taking that away from them. However, if they really think that they are going to be competing in this one, the Beavers have to enter with the mindset that they are the aggressors in this game, not the team that is just trying to keep it close and hang on for a ‘W’ at the end. If that’s what happens, they’ll get destroyed.

Key #3: Take Jacquizz Rodgers Out of the Game and Make Ryan Katz Beat You, Oregon
This is really the only think that the Ducks need to worry about. We know that their offense is going to get the job done; that’s why they’re ranked No. 1 in the country at 546.7 yards and 50.5 points per game this year. The real question is whether or not the defense, which has been shaky at times this year, can really get the job done in this rivalry game. The Beavers were shut out last week and have fallen upon some hard times, but they really aren’t to blame for all of these hassles. Their schedule and some injuries are. WR James Rodgers has been out for the majority of the season, and he was the team’s most dynamic receiver. It was bad enough that QB Ryan Katz was already being asked to step in an replace QB Sean Canfield, who was phenomenal with the Beavers in his short time in Corvallis. Now, Katz had to get the job done with Rodgers. He does have his brother to work with though, and RB Jacquizz Rodgers is the man most likely to blow this game open with big plays for the Beavers. Last year in this game, Rodgers rushed for 64 yards and caught 73 yards worth of passes, and this season, he already has 1,110 yards and 16 total scores. The way that you slow down Rodgers is by not letting him have the football. As long as Oregon’s offense keeps scoring and the defense can at least work Oregon State into a few third and long situations, the Ducks should be fine. It’s only going to take a few early stops to take the lead in this game, and once the Beavers fall two scores behind, that’s when things can get a little ugly for Katz, who has only thrown for 2,159 yards this year.

NFL Football Picks: Thursday Night Football Props (12/2/10)

December 2nd, 2010 by Adam Markowitz (Bankroll Sports Columnist) | Posted in NFL Football   Comments Off on NFL Football Picks: Thursday Night Football Props (12/2/10)
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The Houston Texans are the team that has almost been able to finish off a number of epic wins this year… However, they have almost always fallen short and are on playoff life support again because of it. The Philadelphia Eagles are in significantly better shape at 7-4 right now, but a loss would be catastrophic. These two intra conference foes square off in the City of Brotherly Love tonight, and here at Bankroll Sports, we have your fantastic prop picks for the duel on the NFL Network.

Arian Foster Over/Under 82.5 Rushing Yards
Why the oddsmakers continue putting such little faith in Foster is beyond us. This is a man that leads the NFL in rushing and is averaging over 100 yards per game on the ground. To think that he could get to the 1,500 yard barrier without breaking a sweat is amazing. And now, against a defense that has been iffy at best at times, you think that Foster is going to stop? We certainly don’t think so. It always has and always will be the philosophy of HC Gary Kubiak that, no matter how good his passing game is, that he needs to establish the run in order to win games. The former Tennessee Volunteer is coming off of a game in which he carried the ball 30 times for 143 yards. In games in which he has at least 17 carries, Foster has gotten to this total six times against two in which he didn’t. He should get at least 20 carries on the day, and if he gets that, Foster will have no problem going Over 82.5 Rushing Yards (-115 at Hollywood Sportsbook) on Thursday Night Football.

Will Arian Foster Score a Touchdown?
Here we go again with Foster. Let’s just do some simple math right here, shall we? The man has 13 TDs on the campaign in 11 games. Just right there, that’s an average of over a score per game. If he recorded a TD in at least 11 games this on this season, he would be a winner for the year on a prop of this juice. Okay, so he was held out of the end zone last week. Big whoop. Over the previous five weeks, Foster had eight TDs on the ground and one through the air, and he scored at least one in all of those games. He is the undisputed back down by the goal line, and he is the second best receiving option that QB Matt Schaub has. At some point, if Houston is scoring, it is highly like that Foster will be the man doing the deed. Foster Will Score a Touchdown (-130 at Hollywood Sportsbook).

DeSean Jackson Over/Under 68.5 Receiving Yards
Glover Quin, meet DeSean Jackson. D-Jax, meet arguably the worst starting cornerback in the NFL today. It doesn’t seem to matter who Quin is guarding, opposing quarterbacks just seem to find a way to get them the ball. Vick has an absolute rocket for an arm, and odds have it, Jackson will at least get one shot in this game to catch one pass that will cover this entire total. Knowing the Kareem Jackson isn’t all that much better on the other side of the field and that their safeties are a sieve, there is just no way that the Texans are keeping one of the most explosive receivers in the league under this total. Jackson will be a triple digit receiver this week, and he’ll easily go Over 68.5 Receiving Yards (-115 at Hollywood Sportsbook) against the Texans.

Jeremy Maclin Over/Under 69.5 Receiving Yards
Do we need to introduce Glover Quin to Jeremy Maclin as well? Perhaps we should. Mr. Quin, this will be the other man that is constantly running past you all game long. Maclin should be the more consistent target of QB Michael Vick in this one, and as long as Vick doesn’t have a field day throwing all over the place to Jackson, Maclin should reach his total as well. He’ll go Over 69.5 Receiving Yards (-115 at Hollywood Sportsbook).

NCAA Football Picks: Oklahoma Sooners @ Oklahoma State Cowboys Props

November 27th, 2010 by Adam Markowitz (Bankroll Sports Columnist) | Posted in College Football   Comments Off on NCAA Football Picks: Oklahoma Sooners @ Oklahoma State Cowboys Props
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The Oklahoma Sooners are usually the team that is doing the hunting in the Bedlam series against the Oklahoma State Cowboys. However, this time around, it is Oklahoma State that is the favored team. The stakes are even higher on Saturday night, as the winner will play in the Big XII Championship Game against the Nebraska Cornhuskers. Here at Bankroll Sports, we have all of the prop picks for this de facto Big XII South title game that you certainly won’t want to miss out on.

Landry Jones Over/Under 330.5 Passing Yards
Let’s face the facts here. This isn’t going to exactly be a low scoring game. We know that Jones and the Oklahoma offense are going to get their points on the board, and we know that they are probably going to rack up over 500 yards of offense on the day. The Cowboys know that as well. The hosts rank No. 107 in the country in pass defense at just 258.0 yards per game allowed, but that includes all of those games against teams that could care less about throwing the pill around. Jones has averaged 318 yards per game in his career, and he is only getting better with every passing week. If you believe that the Cowboys are going to continue scoring in this one at a wicked pace, you have to love Jones going Over 330.5 Passing Yards (-115 at Hollywood Sportsbook) on Saturday night.

Brandon Weeden Over/Under 344.5 Passing Yards
This number though, is a little absurd. Perhaps if Weeden were in the 320s or so, we would consider backing his over, but getting to 345 passing yards in a game is really, really tough, whether you have some of the best receivers in the nation to try to throw to or not. We know that over these last three games, Weeden has thrown for at least 389 yards and that he has tossed seven TDs in that stretch, but this is a different type of challenge which will require more attention to the ground game as well. The Sooners, at their best, are worlds better than the Kansas Jayhawks, Texas Longhorns, and Baylor Bears. You know that this isn’t going to be a three score game, which is what each of these last three have been as well. We think that Oklahoma is at least going to be able to hold Weeden down just a tad. He’ll put up his usual gaudy numbers, but he’ll still end up going Under 344.5 Passing Yards (-115 at Hollywood Sportsbook).

Justin Blackmon Over/Under 130.5 Receiving Yards
Blackmon is always the top target for Weeden to throw to, and though we aren’t all that confident in his ability to get to the 350ish yard passing mark, we have no doubts that Blackmon is getting to his yardage total. Remember that this wide out leads the nation in virtually every receiving category in spite of the fact that he was suspended a couple weeks ago for a DUI. Blackmon can go for 300 yards by himself in this game if he really wanted to, and even though the Sooners are inevitably going to be rolling coverage to his side quite a lot, it isn’t going to make one difference. Blackmon will easily go Over 130.5 Receiving Yards (-115 at Hollywood Sportsbook).