Posts Tagged ‘Week 11 trends’

2010 NFL Trends: Week 11 Cheat Sheet

November 27th, 2010 by Adam Markowitz (Bankroll Sports Columnist) | Posted in NFL Football   Comments Off on 2010 NFL Trends: Week 11 Cheat Sheet
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Week 11 of the NFL season is right around the corner! The handicapping experts of Bankroll Sports have key releases for you this weekend. Props and free picks will be available to you on our sports blog as well. However, to kick off this NFL betting week, we’re going to take a look at the most important NFL trends and matchup histories for the Week 11 NFL matchups.

Thursday, November 18th, 8:20 ET: Chicago Bears @ Miami Dolphins
NFL Trends of Note
The Bears are 4-1 ATS in their L/5 as underdogs
The Fins are 10-4 ATS over the L/14 seasons in Week 11
Miami is just 6-25 ATS in its L/31 as a home favorite

Series History
Miami has come out and dominated this series in the 2000s, going 2-0 SU and ATS and winning both the game in the Windy City and the one in South Beach by exactly 18 points. The last win for Chicago in this series happened to also be its last win in Miami, a 36-33 OT win as 8.5 point underdogs in 1997. Since 1985, the Dolphins are 4-3 SU and ATS against the Bears.

Sunday, November 21st, 1:00 ET: Washington Redskins @ Tennessee Titans
NFL Trends of Note
The Redskins are 7-2-4 ATS in their L/13 played on grass
Washington is 5-2-1 ATS in its L/8 road games
The Titans have covered six of the seven meetings in this series since 1985

Series History
The Titans/Oilers franchise has really been dominant in this series, as they have won four of the seven meetings against the Redskins since the mid 1980s. Tennessee has actually only lost to Washington once as the road team, that coming in the most recent meeting in ’02. Aside from that though, this has been a series of all one way traffic. Four straight clashes have exceeded the ‘total’, and all four games have featured at least 42 points.

Sunday, November 21st, 1:00 PM ET: Green Bay Packers @ Minnesota Vikings
NFL Trends of Note
Green Bay is 7-1-1 ATS in its L/9 against teams with losing records
The Pack are 12-5-1 ATS in their L/18 overall
Minnesota is 7-2-1 ATS in its L/10 played at Mall of America Field

Series History
If you like high scoring games that feature a ton of upsets, this is the rivalry for you. The ‘dog is 17-6 ATS in the L/23 duels in this series. The Packers had won four straight ATS and went 3-1 SU from the start of the 2007 season through the end of the ’08 campaign, but in 2009, this was a series that belonged to QB Brett Favre and the Vikes. Ironically, Favre’s team covered six in a row and this series and he went 7-1 SU from ’06 through the first meeting of this year. That’s when the Packers finally beat their old mates for the first time 28-24 at Lambeau Field.

Sunday, November 21st, 1:00 PM ET: Baltimore Ravens @ Carolina Panthers
NFL Trends of Note
The Ravens are winless ATS in their L/4 meetings against teams with losing records
Carolina has covered four straight ATS as double digit underdogs
The Panthers are only one for their L/5 ATS in games played in Week 11

Series History
Carolina had better enjoy its dominance in this series, because odds have it, that domination is over with on Sunday afternoon. The Ravens have never beaten the Panthers in franchise history, as the men in blue and black have gone 3-0 SU and ATS in as many meetings. The most recent affair was in 2006, a 23-21 win for the visiting Panthers. This is only the second time that Baltimore has traveled to Charlotte. In the only other meeting, the Ravens were beaten 10-7 in 2002.

Sunday, November 21st, 1:00 PM ET: Oakland Raiders @ Pittsburgh Steelers
NFL Trends of Note
The Steelers are 1-9-2 ATS in their L/12 seasons in Week 11
Oakland is 8-2 ATS in its L/10 played in Week 11
The Steelers are 2-5-1 ATS in their L/8 home games

Series History
Strangely enough, this is a series that has gone the way of the silver and black more often than not. Oakland came back from a double digit deficit to win 27-24 here at Heinz Field as 14.5 point underdogs, and it has now won back to back games in this series. The Raiders are just 4-5 SU but 5-4 ATS in nine games against the Steelers since 1990. This will mark the sixth time in the L/7 meetings that these teams have collided in the Steel City.

Sunday, November 21st, 1:00 PM ET: Cleveland Browns @ Jacksonville Jaguars
NFL Trends of Note
The Browns are 12-4 ATS in their L/16 against AFC opponents
Cleveland is 11-5 ATS in its L/16 overall
The road team has gone 7-2 SU in the L/9 in this series

Series History
It’s strange to think that these two teams actually shared a division until the 2002 season. They met in the last game of last season, with Cleveland claiming a 23-17 victory in the Dawg Pound in a relatively meaningless game. It was the second straight win for the Browns both SU and ATS against the Jags. Jacksonville actually hasn’t beaten the Browns at home since 2000, going 0-3 SU and ATS in that stretch since that point. Of course that last win made up for all of those losses, as the Jaguars triumphed 48-0.

Sunday, November 21st, 1:00 PM ET: Houston Texans @ New York Jets
NFL Trends of Note
The Texans are 7-3 ATS in their L/10 as road underdogs
New York has covered six of its L/8 overall
The Jets are 5-1 ATS in the games following their L/6 SU victories

Series History
The Texans and Jets have met four times in Houston’s history with two meetings coming in the Meadowlands and two coming at Reliant Stadium. Wherever the game is being played, the result has been exactly the same. New York is coming away with a comfortable victory, and the Texans aren’t scoring a heck of a lot of points. Houston has only averaged 9.8 points per game against the Jets, and it has an 0-4 record both SU and ATS to show for it. All four games have sailed ‘under’ the total.

Sunday, November 21st, 1:00 PM ET: Arizona Cardinals @ Kansas City Chiefs
NFL Trends of Note
The Cards are just 2-6 ATS in their L/8 on the road
KC is 7-3 ATS in its L/10 played on grass
Arizona has never won a game at Arrowhead Stadium

Series History
That’s right, you read that properly. The Cardinals, dating all the way back to 1986, have never won here at Arrowhead. In fairness, they have only had two tries, but they have been outscored by an aggregate score of 83-24 in those two outings as well. These two are split right now the middle since the mid 1980s, as they are both 3-3 ATS. Kansas City holds a slight 4-2 SU edge, and as we have already stated, it is 2-0 ATS at home since the ’80s as well against the Redbirds.

Sunday, November 21st, 1:00 PM ET: Detroit Lions @ Dallas Cowboys
NFL Trends of Note
The Lions are 5-2 ATS in their L/7 as underdogs
Detroit is just 7-20-1 ATS in its L/28 played in the month of November
Dallas is the only team in the NFL yet to cover a game at home this season

Series History
These two teams have quite the history with one another, but ironically, the two Thanksgiving Day showcase teams haven’t met since 2007 and haven’t met on the eve of Thanksgiving week since 2005. The Lions have covered the L/2, losing 28-27 at home as 10.5 point pups in 2007 and winning 39-31 in Big D as 13 point dogs in 2006. Needless to say, both games flew past their ‘totals’. Dallas covered four straight from 2002 through 2005. The Lions even have a playoff victory to their credit against the Cowboys, a 15-10 win in 2002.

Sunday, November 21st, 1:00 PM ET: Buffalo Bills @ Cincinnati Bengals
NFL Trends of Note
The Bills are 11-4 ATS in their L/15 road games
Cincinnati is 1-7 ATS in its L/8 at home
The Bengals are 1-7 ATS in their L/8 against teams with a losing record

Series History
Things don’t look good for the Bengals based upon those NFL trends, and they don’t look all that special in this specific series history either. Cincinnati actually hasn’t beaten the Bills outright since the 1989 playoffs. Buffalo is 9-0 SU and 8-1 ATS since that point. The Bengals have looked like the Bungals at home against Buffalo, losing 37-27 as 13.5 point favorites in 2005, 33-17 in 2004, and 33-20 in 1998, the only three meetings since that playoff encounter. Six of the L/8 have gone past the number as well, as Buffalo has scored at least 22 in nine straight in this series.

Sunday, November 21st, 4:05 PM ET: Seattle Seahawks @ New Orleans Saints
NFL Trends of Note
The Seahawks are just 3-11 ATS in their L/14 road games
Seattle is 2-8 ATS in its L/10 against teams with winning records
The Saints are 5-13 ATS in their L/18 games played in conference

Series History
Since 1985, these teams have only met on the gridiron eight times, and they are fairly evenly split in doing so. The Saints are 4-4 SU but only 3-5 ATS. Each team has two outright wins at home and two on the road. The ‘totals’ are split as well, with four games going ‘over’ and four going ‘under’. You have to go back to 1997 to find the last win for the Saints in this series at home, but there has only been one game here at the Superdome since that point. New Orleans marched to a 28-17 win in October 2007 in the most recent duel of these NFC squads at Qwest Field.

Sunday, November 21st, 4:05 PM ET: Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ San Francisco 49ers
NFL Trends of Note
The Bucs are 7-19 ATS in their L/26 games played on grass
San Fran is 10-3-2 ATS in its L/15 against teams with a winning record
Tampa Bay actually hasn’t won a game in the Bay SU since 1980

Series History
In fairness though, the home team has won seven straight in this series both SU and ATS, and the last time a road team won, the Niners were favored by 16 point in the Big Sombrero in 1993. The Bucs came close the last two meetings in San Fran, losing 21-19 and 15-10, but the bad news for them is that the Niners were significant dogs in both games, including in ’05 as 10.5 point choices of the oddsmakers. The ’07 ‘over’ marked the first time a game in this series went past the number since 1994, ending a five game ‘under’ streak.

Sunday, November 21st, 4:05 PM ET: Atlanta Falcons @ St. Louis Rams
NFL Trends of Note
The Falcons are just 2-2 SU and ATS on the road this season
St. Louis is 4-1 SU and ATS at home on the year
The Falcons are 1-7 ATS in their L/8 played on turf

Series History
This is a very interesting clash between teams that used to share a division. The Rams have covered eight of the L/11 duels, but the home team has won six straight SU. If you’re looking for high scoring games, this is the series for you! The winning team has scored at least 28 points in the L/10 meetings dating back to 1999 and has scored at least 35 points in six of the ten. Needless to say, seven of the ten went past the number. 2008’s 31-27 win for the Falcons at the Georgia Dome marked the first time that this series ended with a game closer than a dozen points since the 1990s. That was also the last time the Falcons won a game here in the Edward Jones Dome.

Sunday, November 21st, 4:15 PM ET: Indianapolis Colts @ New England Patriots
NFL Trends of Note
The Colts are 9-1-2 ATS in their L/12 against teams with a winning record
Indy is 12-4-2 ATS in its L/18 games on the road
The underdog is 11-3-2 ATS in the L/16 meetings of these arch rivals

Series History
The big question around water coolers this weekend is who the better quarterback is in NFL history, Peyton Manning or Tom Brady… At least based upon recent history, the answer is Manning. His Colts have won four of the L/5 SU and have gone 4-1-1 ATS in the L/6. If you take the aggregate score in the five games of these teams from 2006 to 2009 including the ’07 playoff win that famously sent Indy to the Super Bowl for the first time since moving from Baltimore, the score is incredibly tight. All five games were separated by seven points or less, and Indy holds a slender edge of 138-127.

Sunday, November 21st, 8:20 PM ET: New York Giants @ Philadelphia Eagles
NFL Trends of Note
The Giants are 6-1-1 ATS in their L/8 following a double digit home loss
New York is 12-3-1 ATS in its L/16 as road underdogs of a field goal or less
The underdog is 10-1 ATS in the L/11 in this series

Series History
The one exception was the last meeting of last season, when the Eagles flew up to the Meadowlands and came away with a thrilling 45-38 ‘W’. Philly has won four straight in this series, including the only 23-11 game in NFL history in Jersey in the ’09 postseason. The Giants had won back to back games in Philly in ’07 and ’08 before getting romped here in the City of Brotherly Love 40-17 last year.

Monday, November 22nd, 8:30 PM ET: Denver Broncos @ San Diego Chargers
NFL Trends of Note
The Broncos are 7-2 ATS in their L/9 against teams following their bye week
San Diego is 5-1 ATS over the L/6 years in Week 11
The Bolts are 20-6 ATS in their L/26 games as home favorites ranging between 3.5 and 10.5 points

Series History
The Broncos are just 1-6-1 ATS in the L/7 clashes against their AFC West foes, but the one exception was last year’s duel at Qualcomm Stadium, a 34-23 win on Monday Night Football which propelled them to their 6-0 start and gave them a three game lead in the division… we all know what happened from that point forward… San Diego added salt to the wound by winning 32-3 at Mile High last year. San Diego has averaged scoring 36.5 points per game in the L/8 meetings, a number that, if it hits the board on Monday, will certainly leave the Broncos with absolutely no chance of survival.