Posts Tagged ‘LSU vs. Alabama props’

BCS National Championship Game LSU vs. Alabama Prop Picks 1/9/12

January 9th, 2012 by Adam Markowitz (Bankroll Sports Columnist) | Posted in College Football   Comments Off on BCS National Championship Game LSU vs. Alabama Prop Picks 1/9/12
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There is just one game left on the college football TV schedule, and that game takes us to the Louisiana Superdome for the BCS National Championship. There has been a ton of pomp and circumstance surrounding this game over the course of the last month or so, and here at Bankroll Sports, we are taking one last look at the LSU Tigers vs. Alabama Crimson Tide. Check out our National Championship prop picks courtesy of Bovada Sportsbook.

AJ McCarron Over/Under 200.5 Passing Yards
McCarron threw for 199 yards when these two teams met the first time around, but we just aren’t all that sure that that is going to be the case again in this one. The Georgia Bulldogs were a great passing team this year, and QB Aaron Murray was frustrated the entire game by this LSU defense. The Bayou Bengals have two of the best corners in the nation, and getting the ball to anyone aside from RB Trent Richardson on screens is going to be dangerous to say the least. The Crimson Tide do have the receivers to be able to do some damage when push comes to shove, but we just don’t see this much in terms of yardage allowed by the LSU secondary. McCarron Under 200.5 Passing Yards (-110 at Bovada Sportsbook)

Trent Richardson Over/Under 28.5 Receiving Yards
Richardson did plenty of damage to these Tigers earlier this year as a receiver, accounting for 80 yards through the air. Granted, most of that came on one long play, but in the end, he had five catches and eight targets on McCarron’s 28 pass attempts. There is going to be a heck of a lot of checking down in this one, and we see Richardson getting plenty of looks. This is a man that caught 27 passes this year for 327 yards, so we know that he has the hands to be able to make the receptions to make this prop stand up. Richardson might not have the day on the ground for the Tide, but we do think that he is going to be used as a receiver quite a bit. He should get at least into the 40s in this game in receiving yards in our estimation. Richardson Over 28.5 Receiving Yards (-110 at Bovada Sportsbook)

Will Rueben Randle Score a Touchdown?
If this game turns out to be anything like the first meeting, there won’t be any touchdowns to speak of, so all of these props will turn out to be “No.” We do think that there will at least be a few TDs in this one, and that would make Randle a prime candidate to get the job done on a deep ball. However, for the last month, these Alabama corners have been hearing all about how the Tigers have the best corners in the nation. Yet it was the Crimson Tide that ranked No. 1 in literally every single major defensive yardage category this year, and you can bet that these corners have something to prove. Randle did catch 50 balls this year for 904 yards and eight trips to the end zone, and he is surely the deep threat in this game, but if you are asking us whether he is going to get behind the Alabama secondary in this game, we certainly don’t think so. This seems like an awfully short price on a man that only scored eight TDs all season long. Randle To Not Score a TD (-180 at Bovada Sportsbook)

Total Turnovers Over/Under 3.5
Though both of these defenses forced a ton of turnovers this year, the truth of the matter is that neither one turned the ball over all that much, including in the game against one another back in November. There were a grand total of four turnovers in the first meeting, but QB Jarrett Lee threw two of them, while WR Marquis Maze threw one as well. These teams simply don’t lose fumbles, and in the punt return game, DB Tyrann Mathieu has some of the best hands in the game, while P Brad Wing’s punts are basically never returned. That will certainly cut down the number of opportunities that either team has at turning the ball over. There could be a ton of punts in this one, just like there was the first time around, but we don’t see a slew of turnovers. Asking either team to force more than two turnovers against the other in this one is going to be a tall, tall task, and we just don’t see any way that it happens. It’s chalky, but it is certainly the right play to make. Under 3.5 Total Turnovers (-350 at Bovada Sportsbook)

Will Either Team Score Three Straight Times
Sure, if you are really a believer that these two teams are going to play another one of these wild 9-6 games that ends in overtime, you are better served betting the “No” on this prop. That being said, we think that suckers are going to take that +120 all day long, as the thought has to be whether there are going to be three scores, let alone three scores coming in a row by the same team. It only needs to happen once though, and in at least two out of every three games, it happens. Both of these teams are good enough offensively to make it happen, and in the event that this one starts to get out of hand (and don’t discount the fact that it might), it will be clear that someone will score three straight times, either when trying to post a comeback, or trying to pull away from the other once and for all. A Team Scores Three Straight Times (-160 at Bovada Sportsbook)