Posts Tagged ‘2012 election’

Marijuana Laws: Legalize Pot Odds in Colorado, Washington, Oregon

November 4th, 2012 by Adam Markowitz (Bankroll Sports Columnist) | Posted in General Handicapping   Comments Off on Marijuana Laws: Legalize Pot Odds in Colorado, Washington, Oregon
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Light one up and pass down the ballot! Colorado, Washington, and Oregon all have initiatives to either legalize or ease restrictions on marijuana use and sales. With the number of people supporting marijuana legalization growing every year, states have been slowly taking small steps towards legalization for over a decade now but these would be some of the most progressive reforms yet. It comes as no surprise that these initiatives involve three of the most liberal states in the US or that these three early adopters are voting on this on Tuesday.

In Colorado, voters will be able to vote on Amendment 64 which will decriminalize marijuana and give it the same restrictions as alcohol, legalizing it fully for anyone under 21 and allowing stores to sell weed with a state license. If this passes, Colorado would be the first state in the country to fully legalize marijuana and could open the floodgates for other states and perhaps even the national government to fully legalize pot. Currently, Amendment 64 is a -210 favorite at SportBet Sportsbook to pass per the 2012 election odds and the odds for the measure not to pass are +160. When betting these lines, it’s important to keep in mind that initiative or amendment polling has a spotty track record at best, so rather than follow the polls it may be better to go with your gut.

Oregon voters will decide on Measure 80 on Tuesday, but this reform does not seem to have near the support that Amendment 64 has in Colorado. The measure is currently a massive -750 betting favorite according to the marijuana legalization chances with the option of the measure passing checking in as a +450 underdog at A poll released on Wednesday found that 49% of Oregon voters opposed the measure and only 42% supported it. However, marijuana advocates quickly pointed out how the poll may have been skewed due to pollsters conducting this exclusively over the phone on landlines. They point out that a vast number of young people (assumed to be the major proponents of the measure) no longer use landlines and the poll thus had a flaw in its methodology and underrepresented the measure’s support. This is a valid argument and a poll compiled a different way may have an entirely different result.

Washington’s Initiative 502 is a huge favorite to be passed possibly because this does not liberalize marijuana to the extent that the legislation in Oregon and Colorado will. Right now, the bill is a -600 favorite to pass per the odds that weed is legalized at and is a sizeable +400 underdog to fail. With a name like the Evergreen State it seems inevitable that marijuana will be broadly legalized this fall and there may be a cloud of smoke bigger than Mt St Helen’s to celebrate.

Hovering over all of this though is the United States government, which might use its broad powers to sue any state that passes these measures as being in contradiction to federal law. Federal law prohibits marijuana sale, use, and possession and an action by the United States would tie up the legality of these laws in courts for years before potentially going all the way to the Supreme Court. One could only fathom what the Supreme Court would decide, but even this would go a long ways to the legalization of marijuana in America.

2012 Presidential Election Odds: Barack Obama 2012 Reelection Odds

October 30th, 2012 by Adam Markowitz (Bankroll Sports Columnist) | Posted in Entertainment & Exotic Odds   Comments Off on 2012 Presidential Election Odds: Barack Obama 2012 Reelection Odds
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With a little more than a week until Election Day, presidential betting action has been heating up as Barack Obama and Mitt Romney battle it out to see who is the next President of the United States of America. Romney and Obama have been ramping up their campaigns in the homestretch with each making several stops per day in key battleground states in hopes of reaching the magical number of 270 electoral votes needed to become the next POTUS.

The betting odds for the president have been in favor of President Obama since his Inauguration Day in 2009. Although he had a momentary scare with his poll numbers and betting odds free-falling after his first performance of the debate season, his last two debate showings helped stop the Romney momentum and has helped the presidential betting lines remain relatively static over the last few weeks. Currently, President Obama is a -200 favorite and Governor Romney is a +170 underdog at GT Bets Sportsbook.

One of the more interesting subplots of the political betting spectrum this election cycle has been that the betting sites have shaded more in favor of Romney than reputed polling sites like FiveThirtyEight. As of Sunday night, FiveThirtyEight gives President Obama a 73.6% chance to win, equivalent to making Obama a -279 favorite. Perhaps this could mean that a slight majority of gamblers prefer Romney to Obama or that gamblers don’t put much weight in the calculations that these sites make.

What’s certain is that President Obama has a much clearer route to remaining in the Oval Office than Governor Romney does. Obama has more solid electoral votes than Romney and thus does not need to win as many of the swing states in order to secure re-election. Of utmost importance to both parties with regards to these swing states, is the Buckeye State. Romney would be extremely hard-pressed to claim victory in this election without winning Ohio as Obama would have the election all but locked up if Ohio went blue. Both parties have rapidly mobilized their resources in this state and by November 6 it is unlikely that any Ohio voter has not been robo-dialed, e-mailed or snail mailed in hopes of securing their vote. Other than Ohio, Colorado, Nevada, New Hampshire, Virginia, Florida, Iowa, and Wisconsin are the important swing states in this one and voters there can expect to be harangued heavily over the next eight days.

For the fourth straight presidential election, heading up to Election Day there is not a clear winner between incumbent President Barack Obama and challenger Governor Mitt Romney. Even though Romney is still trailing, he still has a very sizeable chance to win the election according to both the presidential betting odds and the prognostication websites dedicated to determining who the next president will be. Once again, the presidency will come down to a handful of swing states that have the power to decide who will be America’s next president.

Anyone who has paid even cursory attention to the election, knows that Ohio and its 18 electoral votes is of the foremost importance of any swing state. Currently, Barack Obama is seen as a -170 favorite per the state of Ohio betting lines with Mitt Romney being a +130 underdog. However, respected political site FiveThirtyEight is much more bullish on President Obama’s odds, giving him a 73.5% chance to win the state. Both candidates will be doing much of their campaigning in this crucial key state over the next week, highlighting its importance in the election. No Republican has ever won the presidency without winning Ohio, so this race is Mitt Romney’s top priority in order to succeed Barack Obama.

Although it is only worth 9 electoral votes, the race in Colorado is an intriguing one because it is as close to a toss-up as any other state battle. Mitt Romney is listed as a -145 favorite to win the state according to GT Bets Sportsbook despite the fact that FiveThirtyEight gives Obama a 57% advantage in the state. Recently released polls from PPP, Grove, Keating Research, Marist, and Purple Strategies all also give the advantage to the sitting president and Obama has recent history on his side as well, winning the state handily over John McCain during the 2008 election.

Pennsylvania isn’t much of a battleground state this election, but the fact that it has 20 electoral votes makes it very valuable in getting to the magical number of 270. Obama is listed as a heavy favorite (-600) to take the Keystone State and Romney is a sizeable underdog (+400). Unlike these other states though, Pennsylvania has been de-centralized with neither candidate running a campaign ad on either the state’s television or radio waves during the election cycle and neither candidate has made more than a few campaign stops in the state with none coming during the month of October.

The mecca of American sports betting is up for grounds in this election despite Obama coasting to a victory in Nevada in 2008, winning the state by 12.5%. This time, the state is projected to only be decided by a few percentage points one way or the other. Obama is a -300 favorite to take the state by the individual state betting lines with Romney listed as a +220 underdog.

It may be an undercard to the presidential race, but senate betting odds are now up for gamblers to wager on. Democrats currently control the Senate and are expected to retain control of the upper house of Congress in 2012, even though 21 Democratic Party candidates have their seats on the line compared to only 10 Republican seats up for grabs. GT Bets Sportsbook currently has the odds on Democrats gaining control of the Senate at -300 with Republicans listed as a +220 underdog to either gain control or split control. Before this election, Democrats held 51 seats in the US Senate compared to only 47 seats for the Republicans with 2 seats being held by independents. Democrats are heavy favorites in most of the races and are expected to keep the majority.

Some individual senate races have garnered a lot of publicity, possibly none more so than the race in Missouri between Claire McCaskill (D) and Todd Akin (R). Todd Akin set off a political firestorm earlier in the race when he claimed that women could not get pregnant from “legitimate rape” because the female body had hormones that would cause her to be infertile. This humongous gaffe immediately swung the race for McCaskill who has been a strong favorite ever sense and was a big blow to the Republicans who saw Missouri as a winnable state for the GOP. Akin resisted calls from Republican leadership to bow out of the race but is very unlikely to win the seat as a +450 underdog per the Senate betting lines compared to McCaskill with her -750 favorite status.

Virginia has been the center of some controversy as well and there is a much more open race going on between Tim Kaine (D) and George Allen (R). Kaine is the favorite right now with GT Bets Sportsbook listing him as a -265 favorite and Allen placed as a moderate +185 underdog. Allen has gotten a recent boost in spending though with casino magnate Sheldon Adelson recently donating $1.5 million to one of Allen’s super-PACs. Expect to see a flood of ads on local television stations due to the influx of money in Allen’s warchest.

Massachusetts may be one of the most liberal states in the nation, but they have had success recently with Republicans moving toward the center and stealing seats away from Democrats. Scott Brown (R) hopes to continue this trend, but is a +310 underdog to Elizabeth Warren (D) -430. Warren appears to be pulling away in polls with the latest PPP poll showing here with a 9 point lead, but anything can happen in the run-up to Election Day.

2012 Presidential Election Update (Current Presidential Election Odds) @ GT Bets (as of 11/5/12):
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Politics Other Sports Money Line
2012 US Presidential Election
Tue 11/6 1001 Barack Obama wins 2012 election -340
10:00AM 1002 Mitt Romney wins 2012 election +280

Tue 11/6 1103 Barack Obama wins Colorado -150
10:00AM 1104 Mitt Romney wins Colorado +110

Tue 11/6 1105 Barack Obama wins Florida +215
10:00AM 1106 Mitt Romney wins Florida -295

Tue 11/6 1109 Barack Obama wins Iowa -260
10:00AM 1110 Mitt Romney wins Iowa +180

Tue 11/6 1111 Barack Obama wins Maine -4500
10:00AM 1112 Mitt Romney wins Maine +1500

Tue 11/6 1113 Barack Obama wins Michigan -750
10:00AM 1114 Mitt Romney wins Michigan +450

Tue 11/6 1115 Barack Obama wins Minnesota -1050
10:00AM 1116 Mitt Romney wins Minnesota +550

Tue 11/6 1117 Barack Obama wins Nevada -1500
10:00AM 1118 Mitt Romney wins Nevada +700

Tue 11/6 1119 Barack Obama wins New Hampshire -245
10:00AM 1120 Mitt Romney wins New Hampshire +175

Tue 11/6 1121 Barack Obama wins North Carolina +400
10:00AM 1122 Mitt Romney wins North Carolina -600

Tue 11/6 1123 Barack Obama wins Ohio -260
10:00AM 1124 Mitt Romney wins Ohio +180

Tue 11/6 1125 Barack Obama wins Oregon -4500
10:00AM 1126 Mitt Romney wins Oregon +1500

Tue 11/6 1127 Barack Obama wins Pennsylvania -530
10:00AM 1128 Mitt Romney wins Pennsylvania +350

Tue 11/6 1129 Barack Obama wins Virginia -140
10:00AM 1130 Mitt Romney wins Virginia +100

Tue 11/6 1131 Barack Obama wins Wisconsin -320
10:00AM 1132 Mitt Romney wins Wisconsin +240

2012 US Presidential Election – Electoral College
Tue 11/6 1221 Barack Obama electoral votes over 249½ -1200
10:00AM 1222 Barack Obama electoral votes under 249½ +600

Tue 11/6 1223 Barack Obama electoral votes over 259½ -530
10:00AM 1224 Barack Obama electoral votes under 259½ +350

Tue 11/6 1225 Barack Obama electoral votes over 279½ -260
10:00AM 1226 Barack Obama electoral votes under 279½ +180

Tue 11/6 1227 Barack Obama electoral votes over 289½ -145
10:00AM 1228 Barack Obama electoral votes under 289½ +105

Tue 11/6 1229 Barack Obama electoral votes over 294½ -115
10:00AM 1230 Barack Obama electoral votes under 294½ -125

Tue 11/6 1231 Barack Obama electoral votes over 299½ +115
10:00AM 1232 Barack Obama electoral votes under 299½ -155

Tue 11/6 1233 Barack Obama electoral votes over 309½ +210
10:00AM 1234 Barack Obama electoral votes under 309½ -290

Tue 11/6 1261 Electoral College to be tied 269-269 +2500
10:00AM 1262 Electoral College not tied 269-269 -5000

2012 US Presidential Election – Popular Vote
Tue 11/6 1303 Barack Obama popular vote -0.49999% -150
10:00AM 1304 Mitt Romney popular vote +0.49999% +110

Tue 11/6 1305 Barack Obama popular vote -0.99999% -105
10:00AM 1306 Mitt Romney popular vote +0.99999% -135

Tue 11/6 1305 Barack Obama popular vote -1.99999% +175
10:00AM 1306 Mitt Romney popular vote +1.99999% -245

Tue 11/6 1315 Barack Obama popular vote +0.49999% -230
10:00AM 1316 Mitt Romney popular vote -0.49999% +170

Tue 11/6 1391 Gary Johnson popular vote over 0.49999% -600
10:00AM 1392 Gary Johnson popular vote under 0.49999% +400

Tue 11/6 1393 Gary Johnson popular vote over 0.99999% +100
10:00AM 1394 Gary Johnson popular vote under 0.99999% -140

Tue 11/6 1395 Gary Johnson popular vote over 1.49999% +210
10:00AM 1396 Gary Johnson popular vote under 1.49999% -290

2012 US Presidential Election – Electoral College / Popular Vote
Tue 11/6 1451 Electoral winner to lose popular vote +290
10:00AM 1452 Any other result -410
2012 US Presidential Election – States Won

Tue 11/6 1501 Mitt Romney states won over 26½ +100
10:00AM 1502 Mitt Romney states won under 26½ -140

2012 Congressional Elections – post election control of the Senate
Tue 11/6 1901 Democrats control the Senate -420
10:00AM 1902 Republicans control Senate / Split +300

Tue 11/6 1903 Control of Senate a split +470
10:00AM 1904 Control of Senate not a split -810

Tue 11/6 1905 Republicans control the Senate +585
10:00AM 1905 Democrats control Senate / split -1155
a split = no action

Tue 11/6 1907 Democrats control the Senate -1050
10:00AM 1908 Republicans control the Senate +550

2012 Congressional Elections – post election Senate seats
Tue 11/6 1909 Republicans hold over 47½ Senate seats -145
10:00AM 1910 Republicans hold under 47½ Senate seats +105

2012 Congressional Elections – post election control of the House of Representatives
Tue 11/6 1911 Republicans control the House of Rep. -2750
10:00AM 1912 Democrats control House of Rep / split +1450

2012 US Senate Elections
Tue 11/6 1951 Richard Carmona (D) wins Arizona +500
10:00AM 1952 Jeff Flake (R) wins Arizona -900

Tue 11/6 1953 Chris Murphy (D) wins Connecticut -1350
10:00AM 1954 Linda McMahon (R) wins Connecticut +650

Tue 11/6 1955 Joe Donnelly (D) wins Indiana -310
10:00AM 1956 Richard Mourdock (R) wins Indiana +230

Tue 11/6 1957 Elizabeth Warren (D) wins Massachusetts -400
10:00AM 1958 Scott Brown (R) wins Massachusetts +280

Tue 11/6 1959 Claire McCaskill (D) wins Missouri -475
10:00AM 1960 Todd Akin (R) wins Missouri +325

Tue 11/6 1961 Jon Tester (D) wins Montana +180
10:00AM 1962 Denny Rehberg (R) wins Montana -260

Tue 11/6 1963 Heidi Heitkamp (D) wins North Dakota +750
10:00AM 1964 Rick Berg (R) wins North Dakota -1580

Tue 11/6 1965 Sherrod Brown (D) wins Ohio -1050
10:00AM 1966 Josh Mandel (R) wins Ohio +550

Tue 11/6 1967 Tim Kaine (D) wins Virginia -320
10:00AM 1968 George Allen (R) wins Virginia +240

Tue 11/6 1969 Tammy Baldwin (D) wins Wisconsin -165
10:00AM 1970 Tommy Thompson (R) wins Wisconsin +125

2012 State Gubernatorial Elections
Tue 11/6 1981 Maggie Hassan (D) wins New Hampshire -260
10:00AM 1982 Ovide Lamontagne (R) wins New Hampshire +180

After 2012 Elections – President & Congress Combinations

Democratic President + Democratic Senate + Democratic House
Tue 11/6 2001 Dem President + Dem Senate + Dem House +2700
10:00AM 2002 Any other result or split -5800

Democratic President + Republican Senate + Republican House
Tue 11/6 2003 Dem President + Rep Senate + Rep House +3000
10:00AM 2004 Any other result or split -7000

Democratic President + Democratic Senate + Republican House
Tue 11/6 2005 Dem President + Dem Senate + Rep House -290
10:00AM 2006 Any other result or split +210

Democratic President + Republican Senate + Democratic House
Tue 11/6 2007 Dem President + Rep Senate + Dem House +12500
10:00AM 2008 Any other result or split -62500

Republican President + Democratic Senate + Republican House
Tue 11/6 2009 Rep President + Dem Senate + Rep House +350
10:00AM 2010 Any other result or split -530

Republican President + Republican Senate + Republican House
Tue 11/6 2013 Rep President + Rep Senate + Rep House +800
10:00AM 2014 Any other result or split -1700

Republican President + Democratic Senate + Democratic House
Tue 11/6 2015 Rep President + Dem Senate + Dem House +17500
10:00AM 2016 Any other result or split -87500

Ballot Initiatives – Marijuana reform and legalisation
Tue 11/6 4001 Colorado Amendment 64 to be passed -900
10:00AM 4002 Colorado Amendment 64 won’t pass +500

Tue 11/6 4003 Oregon Measure 80 to be passed +550
10:00AM 4004 Oregon Measure 80 won’t pass -1050

Tue 11/6 4005 Washington Initiative I-502 to be passed -1200
10:00AM 4006 Washington Initiative I-502 won’t pass +600