NFL Prop Picks & NFL Week 4 Picks (Sunday, October 2, 2011)

Last Updated: October 2nd, 2011 by Adam Markowitz (Bankroll Sports Columnist)
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We’re all set to wrap up the first quarter of the NFL season, and here at Bankroll Sports, we’re always keeping our eyes peeled to the best ways to boost your bankroll. Today, we’re looking at the best NFL prop picks on the NFL Week 4 schedule!

Calvin Johnson TD in the First Half
There’s a point that Calvin Johnson has to have a game in which he doesn’t score two TDs, right? In this one, he can have a million TDs if he wants, as long as one of those scores isn’t in the first half. The truth of the matter is that the Cowboys play significantly better defense than most probably think, and they are going to be sending the heat at QB Matt Stafford all day long. Defensive Coordinator Rob Ryan is a smart cookie, and he knows that the Megatron is the only receiving threat of huge note that Stafford has to throw the ball to, especially near the red zone, and the end result is going to be coverage getting rolled out to his side quite a bit. We know that Johnson should probably be about -200 to score a TD in most games that he is out there, and if that’s the case, we just don’t see him scoring a TD in the first half a high enough percentage of the time to get the job done. If the fair price is -200 on him scoring a TD for the game, it should be +130 for him scoring in the first half. No Calvin Johnson 1st Half Touchdown (-140 at 5Dimes Sportsbook)

Darren Sproles Over/Under 66.5 Rushing + Receiving Yards
Sproles has been great this year, and the more time that he spends on the field, the better off the New Orleans offense seems to be. That being said, a lot of the swing passes that would have gone to Sproles very well could be going to the returning WR Marques Colston this week. Against the Jags, we look for RB Mark Ingram and RB Pierre Thomas to be more involved in the game both as rushers and potentially as short receiving backs as well. Sproles might not be that much a part of the game plan, as there shouldn’t be that much trickery that needs to be called to win this game. Sproles Under 66.5 Rushing + Receiving Yards (-115 at 5Dimes Sportsbook)

Tim Hightower Over/Under 100.5 Rushing + Receiving Yards
The evil, mad scientist, Head Coach Mike Shanahan cannot be trusted with his running backs all that often. RB Roy Helu took some extra snaps last week against the Cowboys, and he very well could be eating into the production that Hightower ends up with. That being said, even in a game in which Hightower took virtually every snap in the backfield, he only had 97 total yards against the Giants, and their defense is probably right about on par with that of the Rams. That being said, we’re not so sure that the Redskins are running away with this one, and if they’re playing catch up, that probably means more time for Helu and less opportunities for Hightower to touch the rock. Tim Hightower Under 100.5 Rushing + Receiving Yards (-115 at 5Dimes Sportsbook)

Marcedes Lewis Over/Under 2 Receptions
It’s not often that we come up with a prop that has simply never lost, but that’s the case for this prop with Lewis. We know that rookie QB Blaine Gabbert hasn’t shown anything to us yet, and we also know that Lewis is coming off of an injury that has been nagging him in recent weeks, but last year, the former UCLA Bruin didn’t have a single game in which he caught fewer than two passes. For a man that caught 58 balls last year and is considered to likely be a bigger part of the offense this year, we just don’t see how he won’t catch at least a couple check downs, especially against a New Orleans team that has been smashed by opposing tight ends this season. Marcedes Lewis Over 2 Receptions (-180 at 5Dimes Sportsbook)

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Posted in NFL Football - Last Updated on Sunday, October 2nd, 2011 @ 12:21 am (EST)
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