NFL Picks: San Francisco 49ers @ San Diego Chargers Props 12/16

Last Updated: December 15th, 2010 by Adam Markowitz (Bankroll Sports Columnist)

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Both the San Diego Chargers and San Francisco 49ers were able to save their respective seasons last week, but they are both still clearly on life support and need some major help to be able to get through to the playoffs. Losing this one is not an option for either team, as one will have one foot in the grave and the other on the banana peel when this one is over with. Ready for your NFL picks for props in this one? Check out the best San Francisco 49ers vs. San Diego Chargers picks we have for Thursday Night Football!

Longest Field Goal Over/Under 44.5 Yards
Since coming over from the Pittsburgh Steelers, K Jeff Reed has done a nice job with the Niners, going 7-for-7 on field goals attempts. Though he has yet to boot one over 44 yards , he does have a pair of 50+ yarders to his credit as well, and you know if you can kick it 50+ yards in Heinz Field, you can kick it 60+ anywhere else. K Nate Kaeding is back as well for the Chargers, and that’s good news for those of us that are big time fans of booting the ball a long, long way. Since coming back, Kaeding has only missed twice on ten attempts, and one of those was from 56 yards out. Kaeding is the more likely of these two kickers to nail a long field goal, and especially in a game in which defense could be the theme, especially down tight, we tend to believe that there will be a field goal made Over 44.5 Yards (-110 at Hollywood Sportsbook) long on Thursday Night Football.

Alex Smith Over/Under 220.5 Passing Yards
We just knew that the oddsmakers were going to come out and put a bad number like this one on the board in this spot. Smith really looked like a totally different quarterback when he came back to the fold on Sunday, as he threw for 255 yards and three TDs. What we have to remember is that that came in a big time win as well. The rushing game just isn’t good enough to be able to carry the load without RB Frank Gore in the fold, and the end result is going to require Smith to throw more passes to get the job done. This might be one of the best secondaries statistically in football, but we’re tending to want to throw those out when analyzing this one. The weapons are there on this San Fran team to make some real noise, and if that’s the case, especially if it is playing from behind most of, or the entire way, Smith should have no problems going Over 220.5 Passing Yards (-115 at Hollywood Sportsbook).

Vernon Davis Over/Under 57.5 Receiving Yards
This is the same type of logic that we are going to use with Davis as we did with Smith just a moment ago. The big time tight end had a great game last week, catching five passes for 70 yards and a TD. In the games that Smith has both started and finished, Davis has gotten to at least 70 yards through the air five times in nine tries. That’s a heck of a percentage from our standpoint, as we know that we are going to make a ton of money over the long haul at that type of percentage. Normally, we hate playing props like this one against teams with tremendous linebacking cores, but there really might not be much other choice for Smith but to work the ball to his tight end, especially if the corners take the deep game away from WR Michael Crabtree. It might not be the prettiest prop in the world, but Davis should go Over 57.5 Receiving Yards (-115 at Hollywood Sportsbook) against the Chargers.

Philip Rivers Over/Under 1.5 Touchdown Passes
You have to be a believer in the fact that the 49ers have a secondary that is better than their stats suggest in this one. Rivers has thrown at least two TD passes in all but four of his games this year, but he would need to keep up at a rate like this all season long to be able to beat this prop this often. We’re not so sure that he can do it, especially knowing that this is a fight for San Fran’s life as well. Though we know that more often than not, especially at home, the San Diego signal caller is going to find the end zone at least twice on the day, he has only thrown three scores in total in his L/3 overall. Are things decaying? It’s quite possible. Don’t be shocked if Rivers stays Under 1.5 TD Passes (+180 at Hollywood Sportsbook) and gives us a huge cash.

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Posted in NFL Football - Last Updated on Wednesday, December 15th, 2010 @ 7:29 pm (EST)
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