March Madness Props: Which Bubble Teams Make NCAA Tournament?

Last Updated: March 17th, 2013 by Adam Markowitz (Bankroll Sports Columnist)
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John Calipari Kentucky Online Sportsbooks are coming out NCAA Tournament props each and every day. Check out some of the NCAA Tournament prop picks that are currently on the board, and be sure to check back to this page for the rest of the march towards the NCAA Tournament, as we analyze some of the college basketball betting lines for the teams that are going to get in, or be left out of the NCAA Tournament.

Prop List Updated As Of 3/17/13
All Props Listed Courtesy of 5Dimes Sportsbook

Boise State Makes NCAA Tournament -210
Boise State Doesn’t Make NCAA Tournament +160

We’re a bit surprised to see the Broncos favored by this much to get into the NCAA Tournament, knowing that they are one of the last few teams into the dance according to Joe Lunardi. Still, we think that playing in the Mountain West will be enough to get the boys from Boise into the dance.

Middle Tennessee State Makes NCAA Tournament +100
Middle Tennessee State Doesn’t Make NCAA Touranment -140

The Blue Raiders went 28-5 and lost in the semifinals of the Sun Belt Tournament. However, they have an RPI of 29, the 11th best non-conference SOS in the nation, and at least 28 wins with fewer than six losses. Know how many teams have ever missed out on the tournament with those credentials? Zero. We have to think there’s better than a 50/50 shot that the Blue Raiders are headed to Dayton.

Ole Miss Makes NCAA Tournament -265
Ole Miss Doesn’t Make NCAA Tournament +185

It’s going to be really tough to keep the Rebels out, even if they get beaten by Florida by 40 today. They are the one team in the SEC that really took care of the business that they needed to tend to in order to get into the dance. It’d be tough to imagine that a team that finishes the season 25-9 in the SEC would even have a shot of missing the dance. The SEC was weak this year. It wasn’t that weak.

La Salle Makes NCAA Tournament -170
La Salle Doesn’t Make NCAA Tournament +130

The Explorers are the last team that Joe Lunardi has in his bracket, and many have this team as either the last or next to last team in the field. La Salle can send a thank you card out to the rest of the teams in the A-10. The power of this conference are going to get the Explorers in, though at this price, we’d probably have to pass. You don’t want to be laying -170 on a team that is the last squad in the dance.

Virginia Makes NCAA Tournament +220
Virginia Doesn’t Make NCAA Tournament -300

Do we think that Virginia is going to get into the dance? We do not. However, this is a nice price on the Cavaliers. If they don’t get in, they’ll have the best BPI in the nation amongst teams that are in the NIT in all likelihood. A lot of their losses came early in the season when they were fighting injuries. There are some good wins, and even a few great ones, but that really doesn’t make up for it all as we see it. UVA will be close, and perhaps it will be the first team out. We still think that it is worth the risk at this price.

Maryland Makes the NCAA Tournament +170
Maryland Doesn’t Make the NCAA Tournament -230

The Terps were probably just a few points away from dancing. They couldn’t quite figure out how to kill off the lead that North Carolina had in the last few minutes of the semifinals of the ACC Tournament, and as a result, they are going to be stuck as one of the high seeds in the NIT. We don’t see any way that Maryland is getting in, and we would be laying the -230.

Tennessee Makes NCAA Tournament -120
Tennessee Doesn’t Make NCAA Tournament -120

The Volunteers might be the team looking forward to the SEC Championship Game the most. If Ole Miss wins that game, it’s going to be tougher to justify putting the Vols in the dance, as the SEC really doesn’t deserve four teams. If Florida wins though, the victory over the Gators looks that much stronger, and perhaps Tennessee gets the nod. It’s a vintage tossup between the Vols, Blue Raiders, and Explorers, two of the three of which will get in. We wouldn’t want any part of this prop bet.

Southern Miss Makes NCAA Tournament +250
Southern Miss Doesn’t Make NCAA Tournament -350

We have seen the Selection Committee make some wild picks for the dance in the past, but this one would be to bizarre. The Golden Eagles literally don’t have a single win against a good team this year; winless against the RPI Top 50. You’re not going to get into the dance, even with this crazy field, without one great victory to fall back on.

Kentucky Makes NCAA Tournament +350
Kentucky Doesn’t Make NCAA Tournament -530

It’s easy to suggest that there is at least a one in four shot of the Wildcats getting into the NCAA Tournament, just based upon name recognition alone. However, unless F Nerlens Noel is going to pull a Willis Reed and get back on the court, the sad facts aren’t avoidable. UK is 4-4 in its last eight games, and the last of those games was a crushing defeat at the hands of a Vandy team that finished the season below .500. If UK gets in, it’s name and name alone that gets it there.

Massachusetts Makes NCAA Tournament +350
Massachusetts Doesn’t Make NCAA Tournament -530

There’s just no chance here whatsoever. The Minutemen aren’t even going to sniff the NCAA Tournament after losing to VCU and turning the ball over 22 times on Saturday.

Alabama Makes NCAA Tournament +450
Alabama Doesn’t Make NCAA Tournament -750

At least there’s some intrigue here. Alabama doesn’t have much in the way of even decent wins, but it doesn’t have a bad loss either. Losing to Florida by 10 in the SEC Semifinals wasn’t the end of the world, but that was a game that the Tide really needed to win. We think that this might be one of the last teams being considered to get into the field. Alabama won’t likely get in, but we could see it showing up on the line at least one out of five times. It might be worth a lottery ticket play.

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Posted in NCAA Basketball - Last Updated on Sunday, March 17th, 2013 @ 10:00 am (EST)
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