Kansas City Chiefs vs. Pittsburgh Steelers Props & Predictions 11/12

Last Updated: November 12th, 2012 by Adam Markowitz (Bankroll Sports Columnist)
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Full Chiefs @ Steelers NFL Prop Sheet Listed Below

The Pittsburgh Steelers and Kansas City Chiefs are set to continue the 2012 NFL season, and as a part of our analysis of the Week 10 betting lines, we are taking a look at some of the best NFL props on the board for this crucial primetime fight.

Shortest Field Goal Made Over/Under 25.5 Yards (+100): K Ryan Succop has kicked just one field this year of less than 25 yards, while K Shaun Suisham has just three. However, we have to think that Mother Nature is going to play some tricks on both of these teams. Getting down to the opposing 8-yard line won’t be easy as it is, but getting those last few yards will be difficult in the projected wind and rain. Both of these head coaches have already proven to be rather conservative over the course of the season, and they are likely to be putting the points on the board when they can. It only takes one kick to make us a winner in this one, and it could come at any point over the course of the game. We think that it will happen at least half the time in these conditions. Shortest Field Goal Made Under 25.5 Yards (+100)

Will Heath Miller Score a Touchdown?: And here’s a way that we can hedge our bets! Miller has scored six touchdowns this year, and five of the six have come from five yards or closer (the sixth touchdown came from nine yards out). That being said, if the Steelers are going to get inside the Kansas City 10-yard line and score, there is a good chance that it is either going to be by way of a field goal or by way of a Miller touchdown. There is a decent chance that both of these outcomes end up happening over the course of this game, and we think that it is a lot more likely that both do than both don’t. Pittsburgh is going to have its chances in the red zone, and we need two of them to go our way for the kill of getting both of these NFL props. Heath Miller To Score a Touchdown (+100)

Dwayne Bowe Over/Under 5 Receptions: Receivers have had a terrible time this year against the Steelers’ defense, especially of late. Quarterbacks have only thrown for right around 150 total yards per game against them over the course of the last three weeks, and that clearly is going to make life really difficult on Bowe. There have been four games this year in which the former LSU Tiger has had at least six receptions, but three in which he has had just three catches. With so much emphasis on the bad weather, it’s going to be hard to get the ball up the field to Bowe. If he’s going to beat us, he’s going to do so with short passes, and that’s what WR/RB Dexter McCluster is more used for than anything else. We really think that the KC offense is going to struggle, and it’s largely going to be because the ball can’t get forced into Bowe’s hands. Dwayne Bowe Under 5 Receptions (-115)

Ben Roethlisberger Over/Under 260.5 Passing Yards: This is a rough and very contradictory prop. We love using fantasy football stats to tell us how to bet these props, and this is a nice spot to use just that. According to ESPN Fantasy Sports, the Chiefs actually have the worst defense in the NFL from a fantasy standpoint on average against opposing offenses in the league. That means that Big Ben could be in for a big time day. The weather is going to play a negative role in all of this for the Pittsburgh offense, but Big Ben is used to playing in these conditions. He has had at least 260 passing yards four times this year, and that makes this prop a de facto tossup. Still, the KC defense seems to be the great equalizer, and believe it or not, it could be the fact that this game is could stay closer because of the weather that might make Roethlisberger throw the ball even more. Ben Roethlisberger Over 260.5 Passing Yards (-115)

James Harrison Over/Under 5.5 Tackles: Something is most certainly wrong with this prop, and we have to take advantage of it. We know that the Kansas City offensive line is pretty darn bad, and we wouldn’t be surprised to see Harrison have a huge impact on this game. However, he hasn’t had a game this year with more than four tackles, let alone more than five tackles. Assists will help, but in the end, this is still just far, far too high of a number, one that should be set at more like 4.5 than 5.5 James Harrison Under 5.5 Total Tackles (-115)

Kansas City Chiefs vs. Pittsburgh Steelers NFL Props @ Diamond Sportsbook (as of 11/12/12):
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Score in the First 6.5 Minutes of the Game -120
No Score in the First 6.5 Minutes of the Game -110

Chiefs Score First +175
Steelers Score First -225

First Score a Touchdown -160
First Score Not a Touchdown +130

Longest Touchdown of the Game Over 40.5 Yards -115
Longest Touchdown of the Game Under 40.5 Yards -115

Longest Field Goal Made Over 43.5 Yards -115
Longest Field Goal Made Under 43.5 Yards -115

Shortest Field Goal Made Over 25.5 Yards -130
Shortest Field Goal Made Under 25.5 Yards +100

Total Field Goals Made Over 3.5 +110
Total Field Goals Made Under 3.5 -140

Total Punts Over 8.5 +100
Total Punts Under 8.5 -130

Total Sacks Over 4 -110
Total Sacks Under 4 -120

Defensive or Special Teams Touchdown Scored +160
No Defensive or Special Teams Touchdown Scored -200

Chiefs To Lead the Game at Any Point -120
Chiefs To Never Lead the Game -110

Matt Cassel Completions Over 20.5 -110
Matt Cassel Completions Under 20.5 -120

Matt Cassel Longest Completion Over 30.5 Yards -115
Matt Cassel Longest Completion Under 30.5 Yards -115

Matt Cassel Touchdown Passes Over 1.5 +220
Matt Cassel Touchdown Passes Under 1.5 -300

Matt Cassel Throws an Interception -300
Matt Cassel Doesn’t Throw an Interception +220

Jamaal Charles Rushing Yards Over 63.5 -115
Jamaal Charles Rushing Yards Under 63.5 -115

Jamaal Charles Receptions Over 3 +110
Jamaal Charles Receptions Under 3 -140

Jamaal Charles Scores a Touchdown +130
Jamaal Charles Doesn’t Score a Touchdown -160

Dwayne Bowe Receptions Over 5 -115
Dwayne Bowe Receptions Under 5 -115

Dwayne Bowe Receiving Yards Over 63.5 -115
Dwayne Bowe Receiving Yards Under 63.5 -115

Dwayne Bowe Scores a Touchdown +200
Dwayne Bowe Doesn’t Score a Touchdown -260

Dexter McCluster Receptions Over 3.5 +110
Dexter McCluster Receptions Under 3.5 -140

Jon Baldwin Receptions Over 1.5 -130
Jon Baldwin Receptions Under 1.5 +100

Tony Moeaki Receptions Over 2 -115
Tony Moeaki Receptions Under 2 -115

Derrick Johnson Solo + Assisted Tackles Over 7.5 -115
Derrick Johnson Solo + Assisted Tackles Under 7.5 -115

Ryan Succop Total Points Over 6.5 -125
Ryan Succop Total Points Under 6.5 -105

Ben Roethlisberger Completions Over 22.5 -115
Ben Roethlisberger Completions Under 22.5 -115

Ben Roethlisberger Longest Completion in Yards Over 39.5 -115
Ben Roethlisberger Longest Completion in Yards Under 39.5 -115

Ben Roethlisberger Passing Yards Over 260.5 -115
Ben Roethlisberger Passing Yards Under 260.5 -115

Ben Roethlisberger Touchdown Passes Over 1.5 -220
Ben Roethlisberger Touchdown Passes Under 1.5 +170

Ben Roethlisberger Throws an Interception -135
Ben Roethlisberger Doesn’t Thrown an Interception +105

Steelers Total Rushing Yards on First Attempt Over 3.5 -130
Steelers Total Rushing yards on First Attempt Under 3.5 +100

Mike Wallace Receptions Over 5.5 -105
Mike Wallace Receptions Under 5.5 -125

Mike Wallace Receiving Yards Over 75.5 -115
Mike Wallace Receiving Yards Under 75.5 -115

Mike Wallace Scores a Touchdown -115
Mike Wallace Doesn’t Score a Touchdown -115

Heath Miller Receptions Over 5.5 +110
Heath Miller Receptions Under 4 -140

Heath Miller Receiving Yards Over 52.5 -115
Heath Miller Receiving Yards Under 52.5 -115

Heath Miller Scores a Touchdown +100
Heath Miller Doesn’t Score a Touchdown -130

Emmanuel Sanders Receptions Over 3.5 -115
Emmanuel Sanders Receptions Under 3.5 -115

Emmanuel Sanders Receiving Yards Over 48.5 -115
Emmanuel Sanders Receiving Yards Under 48.5 -115

James Harrison Total Tackles Over 5.5 -115
James Harrison Total Tackles Under 5.5 -115

Shaun Suisham Total Points Over 8.5 -130
Shaun Suisham Total Points Under 8.5 +100

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Posted in NFL Football - Last Updated on Monday, November 12th, 2012 @ 5:43 am (EST)
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