Archive for April, 2010

Updated Final Four MVP Odds and Free Predictions

April 5th, 2010 by Adam Markowitz (Bankroll Sports Columnist) | Posted in NCAA Basketball   Comments Off on Updated Final Four MVP Odds and Free Predictions
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BetUS Sportsbook is all set for the biggest college basketball betting game of the year when the Duke Blue Devils and the Butler Bulldogs tip it off on Monday night! Here at Bankroll Sports, we’re taking a look at the final odds for the Final Four MVP award, which will be handed out at the conclusion of tonight’s game.

Nolan Smith, Duke Blue Devils

Why He Could Win: He has been the most consistent players for the Blue Devils in this tournament. Smith has averaged 18.6 points per game in the dance, making him one of the top scorers in this entire field of 65. You also know that unless he gets injured or into some serious foul trouble that he isn’t leaving the court for more than a minute or two at a time, so Smith will certainly have the chance to take all of the shots he needs.

Why He Might Not Win: Because he’s sort of the forgotten Blue Devil. Smith probably isn’t the best pure scorer on this team, nor is he the best rebounder or assists man. Even when he is leading the team in scoring for a game, the spotlight still often shines on either G Jon Scheyer or F Kyle Singler if either one of those two is having a solid night.

The Final Word: You can find Smith at +250 at BetUS Sportsbook to win MVP honors, which makes him the favorite to take down the award. However, unlike for Scheyer or Singler, it’s going to take a truly amazing effort for Smith to steal those votes that will go to one of the other two Dookies in the event that either one has a comparable game. Look elsewhere.

Jon Scheyer, Duke Blue Devils

Why He Could Win: He’s the leader of a senior-laden team, and he’s also the squad’s top scorer. Scheyer went off for 23 on West Virginia on Saturday night, making him the leader at this point in terms of scoring in the Final Four. If there’s a man that can take over any game single handedly from the outside, Scheyer is your guy, and if he can catch fire, Butler needs to look out. The senior can go on a 12-0 run all by himself very, very quickly.

Why He Might Not Win: Scheyer’s biggest problem is that he is notoriously inconsistent. Ultimately in most games, he gets his points and his assists, but sometimes, it takes awhile to get on the stat sheet. That can’t happen if he hopes to lead his team to victory and take down the MVP title.

The Final Word: Scheyer has been lined at +300 at BetUS Sportsbook to win the MVP award. In our eyes, this is the best bang for your buck. With another 20+ point effort, Scheyer will most likely be the highest scorer in the Final Four, and normally speaking, if you’re the Final Four’s leading point man and your team wins it all, you’re going to be the winner. Considering backing Scheyer at decent odds.

Gordon Hayward, Butler Bulldogs

Why He Could Win: It seems like a foregone conclusion that Hayward is winning the MVP award for the Bulldogs in the event that they win this game. He’s also the only player on the court that has any hope of winning the honors should his team lose. Hayward has averaged 16.6 points and 6.2 rebounds per game in the dance to this point, and his best three games have come against his hardest three opponents in Syracuse, Kansas State, and Michigan State. If there’s any hope of beating the Dookies, Hayward is going to have to play like an MVP.

Why He Might Not Win: Simply put, Butler probably isn’t winning this game. That would almost certainly shut any chances out of Hayward grabbing this award.

The Final Word: Hayward is the top Bulldog on the board at +300 at BetUS Sportsbook to win MVP honors. However, think about this one carefully before placing this bet. You can also get Butler at +290 on the moneyline in this game. If we reasonably assess that Howard isn’t winning this award without the Bulldogs winning the contest, you’re a lot better off passing on Hayward on this prop and taking the Horizon League champs to win the title instead just in case he gets hurt or someone else goes absolutely crazy.

Kyle Singler, Duke Blue Devils

Why He Could Win: The media loves a good story. After having the worst game of his career against Baylor in the Elite 8 by going 0/10 from the field and 0/5 from downtown and only scoring five points, Singler bounced back in the Final Four by scoring 21 points and bringing down nine boards in one of the statistically best games of his season. Just like Smith and Scheyer, Singler has the ability to score and score in bunches, as demonstrated by his nearly 18 points per game average in ’09-’10.

Why He Might Not Win: It’s hard to overlook that goose egg that he put up against Baylor. Even though that shouldn’t factor in to whether or not Singler wins this award, as a voter, it’s hard to look at Singler’s body of work in the dance and really say that he deserves any sort of MVP Award, especially when Smith has been so great over this whole tournament and Scheyer has caught fire in the L/3 rounds.

The Final Word: There’s a reason that Singler is +400 at BetUS Sportsbook to be named Final Four MVP. We don’t necessarily like Singler’s chances any better than Smith’s to capture the award, but we do like his odds a lot better. It seems a lot more likely that the forward can go off for 25+ points and steal the hearts of the voters in the process than that Smith can do the same thing. It’s going to take a huge effort, but if Singler can get it done, he may win this award as the fourth choice on the board.

Weekly Sports Betting Rap Sheet (4/5/10)

April 5th, 2010 by Adam Markowitz (Bankroll Sports Columnist) | Posted in General Handicapping   Comments Off on Weekly Sports Betting Rap Sheet (4/5/10)
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The first week of April brings the rare crossover between four major sports, as the MLB, NHL, NBA, and NCAA hoops all collide. But before we look ahead at the week that will be, here at Bankroll Sports, we’re analyzing the week that was and giving all sorts of heck to those that have drawn our ire as sports betting fanatics.

Rap Sheet Picture of the Week
Philadelphia Eagles HC Andy Reid, who looks angrier than ever about the fact that his franchise quarterback, Donovan McNabb was traded for peanuts in his own division.

There’s no better place to start than in the NBA this week, and boy, would we love to give a piece of our mind to the New Orleans Hornets. You get G Chris Paul, your pride and joy, back in the lineup after he missed what felt like an eternity to this franchise, and you promptly come out and beat the Lakers on your home court. Great, right? After all, it’s not often that you can give up 31 points to G Kobe Bryant and 26 points and 22 rebounds to F Pau Gasol and live to tell about it. However… What gives after that, Hornets? As 9.5 point favorites, the Wizards came into New Orleans Arena and spanked the Hornets 96-91. That was followed up by a nine point loss in Memphis, which we deem to be excusable. But losing to the Nets? By four touchdowns? The 115-87 win for Jersey was clearly its biggest ‘W’ of the season, and it came at the expense of a team that just looks like it has given up. Don’t worry, the laughs aren’t over quite yet if you missed this embarrassing one in Jersey. Minnesota is still on the schedule!

This may not have a heck of a lot to do with gambling at this point, but is there any doubt that the Philadelphia Eagles are getting smacked by the Washington Redskins twice this season? Apparently, making it to five NFC Championship Games and a Super Bowl wasn’t enough for QB Donovan McNabb, so the Iggles shipped him out of town. Ok, no problem, right? After all, guys get traded at the end of their careers all the time. But to send him to Washington??? You’re just asking to get whooped up on, Philly. And this blogger, who notoriously hates the Redskins, is going to love watching McNabb come back into the City of Brotherly Love and beat the snot out of your team this season.

The bullpen for the New York Yankees is already off to a flying start this year. You’d figure in and amongst all of the money that this team spends that they’d learn that eventually, a bullpen is going to help you out, right? But no, apparently having leads of 5-1 and 7-5 aren’t good enough. It’s not bad enough that David Robertson allowed his only inherited runner to cross home plate, but then Chan Ho Park proved once again why the Yanks have no clue how to spend their bucks by giving up three runs (two earned) in a three-run seventh. Don’t worry Joba Chamberlain, we’re not forgetting the three hits and a run you gave up in your 1.1 innings worked either. The final stat line for the New York pen? 2.2 IPs, 4 runs (3 earned), 6 hits, 2 walks, 1 K, 1 HR allowed. That’s a WHIP of 3.00 and an ERA of 13.50. Stellar job, boys. Stellar.

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Season Long MLB Betting Prop Free Picks

April 3rd, 2010 by Adam Markowitz (Bankroll Sports Columnist) | Posted in MLB Baseball   Comments Off on Season Long MLB Betting Prop Free Picks
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The MLB betting season is back and will start on Easter night! BetUS Sportsbook will have all of the action covered for you all season long, and we’ll get started with some of the props offered at BetUS that could prove to be real moneymaking efforts.

Prop Bet #1: Kansas City Royals +3 wins vs. Cleveland Indians: Any combination of team season wins totals is available for you to bet on at BetUS Sportsbook, but the one that we’re going to focus in on is the duel between AL Central rivals, the Cleveland Indians and Kansas City Royals. We already discussed our opinions on the Royals in our MLB season win totals predictions, but a look at the Indians shows that this team isn’t all that great either. Aside from the fact that this was the worst bullpen in the majors last year and made absolutely no improvements there, the lineup card is going to struggle this year as well unless someone like a OF Grady Sizemore or DH Travis Hafner steps up. Even if that is the case, the Tribe just don’t have a winning mentality about them at all right now, and it’d be shocking to us to not see the Royals finish in front of Cleveland in the AL Central.

Selection: Kansas City Royals +3 wins at BetUS. 100% Deposit Bonus by clicking This Link.)

Prop Bet #2: Zack Greinke Over/Under 13.5 Wins: Here we go again with the Royals. Last season, the AL Cy Young Award winner had a breakout season, winning 16 games on an awful Kansas City team. He had a 2.16 ERA and 1.07 WHIP. Remember this as well. He had a whopping nine starts on the season in which he allowed no more than two earned runs in which he either got a no-decision or a loss. If Kansas City really does have an improved team, at least a few of those NDs should become wins. Don’t be surprised to see Greinke contending for the Cy Young once again this season, as he may approach that coveted 20 win barrier for the first time in his already illustrious career.

Selection: Zack Greinke over 13.5 wins at BetUS. 100% Deposit Bonus by clicking This Link.)

Prop Bet #3: Adam Dunn vs. Jason Bay Total Regular Season Home Runs: Washington Nationals’ 1B/OF Adam Dunn is laying 8.5 homers to the newly acquired New York Mets OF Jason Bay in spite of the fact that Dunn only hit two more bombs than Bay did a year ago. But let’s remember one crucial difference this year for Bay. Last year, he was taking potshots at the Green Monster. Now, he goes to a ballpark that ate fly balls for lunch at Citi Field. Granted, Bay will still have half of his games on the road, and Dunn also plays in a huge pitchers park. The Nats’ slugger has popped at least that 38 bombs in each of the L/3 seasons. We fully expect that Bay is going to struggle to reach 30 in that ballpark.

Selection: Adam Dunn -8.5 home runs at BetUS. 100% Deposit Bonus by clicking This Link.)

Prop Bet #4: Manny Ramirez vs. David Ortiz Total Regular Season Hits: What a fun little prop this is! The guys who used to bat #3 and #4 in Boston’s lineup for years are pitted against each other for hits in the season, and Manny is spotting Big Papi 30.5 hits to start. Over the L/2 years, Ortiz has only managed to averaged 120 hits per season, and it feels like Ramirez, future Hall of Famer, would be able to clear 150 hits with ease, right? Not so fast. We’ll start with Papi. For a year in which Boston’s cleanup hitter only hit .238, Ortiz still managed 129 hits. Even if he bats just .250 and gets the same number of plate appearances, he’ll have 135 hits. Now we’re talking about Manny having to get to 166 to beat us. Ramirez batted .290 last season, and if we safely assume that he doesn’t get busted for steroids again in this year, he’ll be on a clip for about 150 hits. It’s clear that this isn’t the same Manny Ramirez that was lighting it up in Boston, as he’s already talking about retirement after this season. If that’s the case and Manny starts to become disinterested, you may be stealing that 30 hit head start with Boston’s slugger.

Selection: David Ortiz +30.5 hits at BetUS. 100% Deposit Bonus by clicking This Link.)

MLB Betting Free Picks: Baseball Season Win Totals

April 3rd, 2010 by Adam Markowitz (Bankroll Sports Columnist) | Posted in MLB Baseball   1 Comment »
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Sportsbook.com is an excellent sportsbook for betting MLB futures! Today, we’re taking at look at some of the juiciest season win totals that you can dig into for the 2010 season!

New York Yankees Over 95.5 Wins: Let’s just analyze the Yankees in a really quick nutshell, because no one wants to admit outside of the Bronx that they’re betting on the Yankees to do well. But this was a team that won 103 games last season and is just better this year than it was a year ago. Yes, both DHs Johnny Damon and Hideki Matsui have moved on, but new DH Nick Johnson can really tear the cover off the baseball, and replacement OF Curtis Granderson could go 30/30 by taking potshots at those short porches in left and right field at New Yankee Stadium. Add RHP Javier Vazquez into the mix, and the recipe is just far too ripe to pass on the boys in pinstripes.

Kansas City Royals Over 72 Wins: Now here’s a team that we like and like quite a bit. Before we even look at anything that the Royals did in the offseason, just take a look at the rest of the division. The Twins certainly are not a better team than they were a year ago, as SS Orlando Cabrera and closer Joe Nathan are both gone. Detroit lost both SP Edwin Jackson and OF Curtis Granderson and only got back SP Max Scherzer of any note in return. Chicago is still a time bomb waiting to happen. Just from that standpoint alone, Kansas City should find a few more wins in divisional play. That being said, this is clearly a better team than the one that won 65 games last year. C Jason Kendall will bring some stability to a pitching staff that really hasn’t had a competent defensive catcher ever, and OFs Scott Podsednik and Rick Ankiel should be notable upgrades on what was playing in the outfield last year for this team. We tend to think that KC can compete, though we’d just be happy to see it reach 73 ‘W’s.

Pittsburgh Pirates Under 69.5 Wins: Newsflash: The Pirates aren’t very good. They’re not going to get any better this year either. The Bucs are almost certainly the worst team in baseball. Their pitching staff isn’t anything to write home about, and their lineup is basically 2B Akinori Iwamura and a ton of guys that are barely old enough to drink a beer, let alone rent a car. Everyone in Steeltown knows that another 100-loss season could very well be on the horizon, and there’s nothing stopping us from saying that they won’t touch a 70-win barrier that they haven’t reached since 2004.

Houston Astros Under 73.5 Wins: This is almost a bit of a prospective futures bet than anything else. What we’re hoping for out of the ‘Stros this year is that 1B Lance Berkman and OF Carlos Lee both get traded. If that’s the case, this is a team that will almost certainly rival Pittsburgh for the gutter in the NL Central. Let’s also realize that Milwaukee and Cincinnati are both going to be competing with the Cubs and Cardinals for divisional supremacy, so it is very possible to see two teams finish with at least 100 losses in the same division, particularly in one with six teams. Houston’s pitching staff is just woeful beyond SPs Wandy Rodriguez and Roy Oswalt, and taking SS Miguel Tejada out of this lineup is only going to make things that much worse for a team that didn’t have much of an offense last season either.

Washington Nationals Over 72 Wins: Are we insane for backing the Nats after they lost 103 games last season? It’s possible that we’ve gone a tad bit crazy, but we think that the boys from DC are in for a much better year this year than they had in ’09. Adding SP Jason Marquis to the front end of the rotation will help out John Lannan quite a bit, as will the inevitably moment that SP Stephen Strasburg comes up from the minor leagues. The lineup hasn’t been the issue with this team. 1B Adam Dunn and 3B Ryan Zimmerman can mash, no doubt, and OF Nyjer Morgan is expected to produce big things at the top of the order. But the staff ranked 28th in the majors last year with a 5.02 team ERA and absolutely must get better.

How to Lay 24 Points in a Final Four Battle

April 2nd, 2010 by Adam Markowitz (Bankroll Sports Columnist) | Posted in NCAA Basketball   Comments Off on How to Lay 24 Points in a Final Four Battle

When arguably four of the best teams in your sport are playing in a playoff format on a neutral court, how on earth can you ever lay 24 points in a game?

If there’s money to be made as they play it, we’re going to have it covered here at Bankroll Sports. I know that women’s college basketball probably isn’t the sexiest thing in the world to bet on (no pun intended), but how can we really ignore what the Connecticut women’s basketball team has done on its road to the Women’s Final Four? Just take a look at these final scores…

Round 1: UConn 95 – Southern 39
Round 2: UConn 90 -Temple 36
Round 3: UConn 74 – Iowa State 36
Round 4: UConn 90 – Florida State 50

That’s right. Four games. 87.3 points per game scored. 40.3 points per game allowed.

There’s a five letter word that comes to mind that describes those numbers, but since we’re keeping it G-Rated, we’ll just say that that’s awfully dominant.

“I challenge anyone to say that we’re arrogant and we’re cocky and we disrespect the game” -UConn Women’s Basketball Coach Geno Auriemma on the question of whether his team is guilty of running up the score on its opponents.

 

One analyst on ESPN came up with the perfect line about UConn’s HC Geno Auriemma. He’s the only man or woman in the country that can convince his team in any sport at any level that they’re down by two points with a minute to play when in actuality, they’re up by 40. How else can you describe the fact that the Huskies were still using the full court press against Florida State in the Elite 8 with less than five minutes to play in the game?

Some of the statistics from this UConn team in this tournament have just been brutal. F Maya Moore, who is leading the team is scoring at 18.4 points per game this year, has outscored the entire other team in the first half of three of the Huskies’ tourney tussles. The Huskies have taken their first double digit lead within eight minutes of four of their games.

I thought that this 64 team tournament was supposed to be a celebration of the best teams in women’s college basketball, not a total destruction of them.

Has to make you wonder, right… UConn’s women -3 against the New Jersey Nets?

It’s not that the Huskies really haven’t played anyone this year. After all, they took on 15 ranked teams on the season, including games at (rankings at the time of playing them listed) #10 Texas, #12 Oklahoma, #7 Notre Dame, #7 Duke, and #12 Florida State. Their closest margin of victory this year? Twelve points at home against #13 Georgetown on February 27th. The biggest margin? Seventy against Northeastern. That’s right. Seven-Zero. Seventy.

The average final score of a Connecticut women’s basketball game this season was 82-46. The Huskies posted 25 games of at least 80 points and held ten foes in the 30s. Eleven others scored in the 40s. Heck, the poor Seton Hall Pirates only scored 24 against these chicks back on January 2nd. Happy New Year to you too, Seton Hall.

Now, Auriemma and his crew will take on their biggest challenge yet, quite literally, when Brittney Griner and her dunking ability come calling. Griner is largely considered the biggest (again, literally) star in women’s college basketball, as she is averaging 18.6 points per game, has dunked in several legitimate game situations (as opposed to just fast breaks with no challenge from the defense), and is blocking a whopping 6.4 shots per game.

However, none of that is going to matter. The average margin of victory for the Lady Huskies against ranked teams this year is 25.7 points. Many of those teams were, at least on the basis of rankings, significantly better than the Bears are. This is also a significantly bigger stage than what most of the regular season battles are worth, and Auriemma has already proven in this tournament that he isn’t calling off the dogs in any situation.

So let’s ask the question once again. How do you lay 24 points in the Final Four?

You do it with the Connecticut Huskies.

Final Four Props and Free Picks

April 1st, 2010 by Adam Markowitz (Bankroll Sports Columnist) | Posted in NCAA Basketball   Comments Off on Final Four Props and Free Picks
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With just four teams remaining in the chase for college basketball’s biggest prize, BoDog Sportsbook has assembled a list of props for the Final Four that are ripe for the picking. Here are our free Final Four prop picks for the weekend!

Prop Bet #1: What will the highest scoring team be in the Final Four games?: Considering just how good the defensive stats are in the Final Four, this prop could be incredibly difficult. After all, both over/unders are very low (Michigan State/Butler: 126, West Virginia/Duke: 130.5). However, don’t over think this one. The Bulldogs have kept both Syracuse and Kansas State under 60 points, and it seems awfully likely that that will be the fate of Michigan State as well. So now we’re looking at the winner of the Duke/West Virginia game. You probably won’t go wrong just by taking both the Mountaineers and Dookies, but we’re going to go with West Virginia because of its potential to explode and go on big runs through its post players.

Selection: West Virginia Mountaineers 5/2 at BoDog Sportsbook. (100% Deposit Bonus by clicking This Link.)

Prop Bet #2: Who will score the most points during the 2010 Final Four?: It’s important to note that the top four favorites for this prop are all either West Virginia Mountaineers or Duke Blue Devils. Remember that there is going to be someone on either Butler or Michigan State in all likelihood that really lights it up in the semifinals and moves on to the championship game. That’s why our pick is going to go against the grain. We’ll go with Michigan State’s G Durrell Summers to do the damage. Butler’s best defenders are all on the inside, so Summers may be able to pick apart this team from beyond the arc. He scored 21 points in the Elite 8 against the Volunteers, and has put together at least 19 in three straight games, which coincides with the injury to G Kalin Lucas. If Sparty can find a way to take care of the Bulldogs and end Cinderella’s season, Summers is probably going to be a favorite to cash this prop going into the final.

Selection: Durrell Summers 12/1 at BoDog Sportsbook. (100% Deposit Bonus by clicking This Link.)

Prop Bet #3: Will either Final Four game go into overtime?: Let’s be remotely realistic about this. We love overtime games, and you’re going to want to bank on this to happen at +300, but these just aren’t great odds. None of these teams have engaged in an overtime battle in the dance. Michigan State’s most recent overtime game came against Minnesota in the Big Ten Tournament, which was its only overtime duel of the year. Butler also has only played in one overtime duel this year. West Virginia needed an extra frame three times on the year, while Duke has yet to play one. If you do the math on all of that, these four teams have combined to play in overtime in just five of their 147 games, or 3.4%. Granted, these teams are significantly more evenly matched than they were with the mass majority of their opponents, and there’s a big curve that has to be given to this. But basically what you’re asking for if you’re betting yes is for one of these games to go to OT approximately 16.7% of the time. Even in the Final Four, that’s just not going to happen.

Selection: No -450 at BoDog Sportsbook. (100% Deposit Bonus by clicking This Link.)