Posts Tagged ‘Green Bay Packers’

NFL Football Picks: Championship Weekend Props 1/23/11

January 23rd, 2011 by Adam Markowitz (Bankroll Sports Head Columnist) | Posted in NFL Football  
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There are only three games left in the entire NFL betting campaign, but before we get ready to make our Super Bowl XLV picks, we have some unfinished business to tend to in the AFC and NFC Championship Games. Check out our NFL prop picks for two of the biggest games of the entire season!

Will There Be a Score in the First 6.5 Minutes of the Game Bears/Packers Game?
We know that the Chicago offense got off to a great start last week against the Seattle Seahawks, but we also have to remember that these two teams have played some absolutely sparkling defense along the way as well. If the Bears get the ball first, there is a decent chance that a scoring drive might take over 6.5 minutes even if it does happen on the opening sequence, believe it or not. We’re believers that points could be at a premium on Sunday, and though that might not necessarily translate into a lower scoring game, we’ll take our chances that the first score doesn’t occur early on. Bank on there being No Score in the First 6.5 Minutes (-110 at Hollywood Sportsbook) between the Bears and the Packers.

Will There Be a Safety in Both Championship Games?
This season, including the playoffs, there have only been 13 safeties. That’s right. Over the course of all of those games in the NFL betting schedule, 264 of them, there have only been 13 safeties. That’s one safety in every 4.9% of games played in the league this year. In 2009, there were only 14 safeties, including the playoffs. Let’s do some simple math here, shall we? Over the last 531 games in the NFL, there have been 27 safeties, or one safety in approximately 20 games (5.08%). If we can hit this prop at -1000 in 94.92% of our games, we’re going to be worth a ton of money. Over 1,000 games, at this price, if we were to bet $1,000 to win $100, we would have a profit of $4,412. Not a bad haul, eh? No Safety in the NFC Championship Game, and No Safety in the AFC Championship Game (-1000 Each Bet at Hollywood Sportsbook).

Aaron Rodgers Over/Under 3.5 Rushing Attempts
Rodgers certainly hasn’t been afraid to tuck it and run when he has to this season, as he was one of the best running options for a team that really didn’t have all that much to work with in that department in 2010. The former Cal Golden Bear took off 64 times this year and accounted for 356 yards in the regular season, but what impressed us the most is the fact that he had seven carries in the 10-3 win over these Bears in Week 17. Rodgers hasn’t gotten to this point yet in the playoffs, as he only has five carries in two games, but we tend to believe that this will be an exception, as the Chicago defense is a lot more prone to sending a lot of men after the quarterback, which could cause Rodgers to have to escape more often than he really wants to. He’ll go Over 3.5 Rushing Attempts (-120 at Hollywood Sportsbook) against the Colts.

Matt Forte Over/Under 16.5 Yards on Longest Carry
It’s only one stroke of luck and one stroke of genius that will get Forte to this type of a number. We’ve seen that the Bears have stayed committed to Forte this season when they have had the chance to, and over the course of the last four games, he has at least 15 carries in all four outings and has averaged 19 carries per game. Forte isn’t really the most explosive runner in the world, but he has had a ton of opportunities, especially when he gets the ball in open space, to be able to take advantage and pick up some huge gainers. Over the course of the second half of the season, Chicago’s top running back has had a long carry of at least 17 yards six times, and we tend to believe that that will continue on Sunday. Forte’s longest carry will be Over 16.5 Yards (-115 at Hollywood Sportsbook).

Total Sacks in the AFC Championship Game
We’re a tad surprised to see Hollywood hang a ’5′ in this game instead of a ’5.5′ due to the fact that last week, there were 11 sacks in the duel between the Steelers and the Baltimore Ravens. We know that there are a ton of problems right now for the Steelers up front, and the Jets have really yet to show their best pass rush in these playoffs to date. After getting after QB Tom Brady all week last week, we have no doubt that New York can get to QB Ben Roethlisberger in this one, and when it does, it is going to make those opportunities pay off. There is no way, with these two ferocious defenses, that there aren’t Over 5 Sacks (-130 at Hollywood Sportsbook) significantly more often than not.

LaDainian Tomlinson Over/Under 18.5 Receiving Yards
You know that LT is going to get his touches in this game, and you know that the Pittsburgh defense is going to do what it can to make sure that he doesn’t have the same 49 yards on 11 carries that he had when these two squads met last month. We know that Tomlinson hasn’t been used all that much as a receiver of late, but there is a point that QB Mark Sanchez is going to have to realize that he doesn’t have the time to work the ball up the field against this Pittsburgh defense. Last week, it was TE Todd Heap for the Ravens that made all of those catches over the middle of the field, and it is clear that Tomlinson is going to be asked to fill that role as a check down option at times when Sanchez is in trouble. LT will go Over 18.5 Receiving Yards (-115 at Hollywood Sportsbook) against the Pittsburgh defense.

Heath Miller Over/Under 3.5 Receptions
We’ve already talked just a tad about inside routes with Heap and the Steelers defense, but what about the New York ‘D’? This unit really doesn’t give up much of anything to anyone, but if there is a bit of a weakness, it is against teams that really utilize either tight ends or other receiving options to sit down in the middle of the field. Last week, Brady was really forced to do nothing but try to throw balls underneath to WR Deion Branch and TE Rob Gronkowski, while the week before, the Colts did the exact same thing with TE Jacob Tamme. Now, enter Heath Miller, who has had at least four catches in three straight games and is proving to be a great safety net for Roethlisberger when he gets himself out of some trouble in the pocket. Big Ben loves using his big time tight end, as Miller often gets at least a half dozen looks per game. He’s a big play threat up the seams and could be in for a lot of looks on Sunday, especially knowing that WR Mike Wallace and his friends are going to be worked a ton up the sides of the field. This is the man in the middle that should have a great day. Miller will go Over 3.5 Receptions (-115 at Hollywood Sportsbook) against the New York ‘D’.

NFC Championship Picks: Green Bay Packers vs. Chicago Bears Analysis

January 16th, 2011 by Adam Markowitz (Bankroll Sports Head Columnist) | Posted in NFL Football  

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betus468x60 NFC Championship Picks: Green Bay Packers vs. Chicago Bears Analysis

The first spot in Super Bowl XLV will be handed out on Sunday, January 23rd at Soldier Field in Chicago, IL, as the Chicago Bears will take on the Green Bay Packers. These two teams know all about each other, having already played two games this season, with the home team winning both duels. The Bears covered both sets of NFL odds in these divisional clashes, and the oddsmakers still have them as three point underdogs on Sunday. Which team will beat the NFC Championship odds? Check out these three keys to the game that should be the deciding factors.

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Key #1: The Bears need to play defense like they did in the first half against Seattle and not in the second half
We know that the NFC Divisional Round duel against the Seattle Seahawks was really a tale of two halves for the Bears, as they were completing dominating for about two and a half quarters before pulling up lame down the stretch and nearly blowing the cover. However, this is a unit that has just been downright nasty all season long, allowing just 90.1 yards per game on the ground in the regular season. Chicago only allowed 34 yards on 12 carries in its first postseason tussle as well. The Bears did allow 331.5 yards per game in the regular season to these Packers, but we really know better. A lot of the yards for QB Aaron Rodgers were created from just a few big plays, but they ultimately were not parlayed into all that many points. Keeping this team to just 27 points in two games is definitely a feat to be proud of. There were also two turnovers forced by the men from the Windy City in this one, which is a problem that the Packers have had at times over the course of this season. They’ve done a great job of protecting the pigskin thus far in the second season, especially against the Falcons when they had just one blown fumble, and the three turnovers that they have had haven’t really come back to bite them.

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Green Bay Packers -3
Chicago Bears +3
Over/Under 44
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Key #2: Alright Jay Cutler… What’ve you got?
This isn’t necessarily a key that will cause Chicago to win this game, but it certainly could be a key to losing it. Cutler has been much maligned since coming to the Windy City, as he has thrown 42 picks in two years after throwing for just 37 picks in two and a half years with the Denver Broncos. The media in the Midway has been all over his case about not protecting the football and not coming up big in big games, and there are certainly still some reasons to believe that this is the case after winning his first playoff game on Sunday. Cutler did only go 15-of-28 on the day, a completion percent of just 53.6 percent, and this came against a defense that was dreadful against the pass all year long. The former Vanderbilt Commodore did toss three picks in two games against Green Bay in the regular season, and he ended the season with 16 boo boos. Enter the Packers ‘D’. This unit had 24 picks in the regular season, the most in the NFC and just one behind the New England Patriots for the league lead. We always thought that you wouldn’t find a better ball hawk in the game than DB Charles Woodson, but we were wrong. DB Tramon Williams has developed a tremendous nose for the ball, and he had the amazing pick six that sunk the Atlanta Falcons last Saturday. If Cutler gets careless with the football, he will throw picks to this team, and if he does that, the Bears don’t stand a chance.

Key #3: The battle at the line of scrimmage
You can bet that line play is going to be preached on both sides of the football this week. The Packers probably think they can get away with a little more leniency on this facet of the game because they are so talented elsewhere, but the team that wins this battle is most likely going to be the one that wins this game. Neither offensive line was that sharp all year, as neither opened up that many holes for the running game. Even in the divisional round games, the Bears averaged just 3.91 yards per carry (and that includes a 21 yard scamper by Cutler), while the Packers only averaged 3.10 yards per carry. Chicago’s OL is going to have to find a way to stop a Green Bay front that had five sacks of QB Matt Ryan on Saturday night, two of which came from one of the biggest sack masters in the league, LB Clay Matthews. The Packers are going to have to contend with a front seven that just has a mean streak in it, and though the Bears did really have the individual stats this year that some of the players on Green Bay’s ‘D’ did, they had the second best defensive front in terms of rushing this year in the league at just 90.1 yards per game.

NFL Football Picks: Sunday Night Football Props (10/24/10)

October 23rd, 2010 by Adam Markowitz (Bankroll Sports Head Columnist) | Posted in College Football  
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QB Brett Favre is heading back to the city that he was once the wonder child in, as he takes his newest team, the Minnesota Vikings into Lambeau Field to take on the Green Bay Packers. Check out our NFL prop selections for Sunday Night Football’s huge clash!

Brett Favre Total Passing Yards Over/Under 234.5
Things are getting better and better for No. 4 in Minneapolis, especially with WR Randy Moss in the fold. We know that Favre barely reached 100 yards passing last week against the Dallas Cowboys, but this is a totally different scenario. This is back in Green Bay. On top of that, Green Bay’s front seven is going to be keying in on RB Adrian Peterson, which really could make for a huge game for the Vikings’ passing game. Favre threw for four TD passes last year when he came to Lambeau Field, and we tend to think that he will get somewhere near this number with plenty of time to spare in this one. DB Al Harris is still banged up, just as there are a number of other Packers dealing with various injuries. Go with Favre Over 234.5 passing yards (-115 at Hollywood Sportsbook) on Sunday Night Football.

Greg Jennings Over/Under 5 Receptions
Logic would suggest that Jennings should be flying over this five reception mark due to the fact that he is one of the only targets that QB Aaron Rodgers really has to throw to at this point. However, Jennings has only reached this point once this entire season. The bad news for us in this prop is that it happened to be last week that he got there. The good news is that the Miami Dolphins’ defense was prone to a ton of deep balls. The Vikes shouldn’t be as prone to that tremendous long ball down the field like Miami was, as this is a defense that focuses more on the pass with just four ferocious rushers in the front line. As a result, we aren’t so convinced that Jennings is going to be getting there. Go with the man from “The U” Under 5 receptions (-115 at Hollywood Sportsbook).

James Jones Over/Under 2 Receptions
Call this more of a gut shot than anything else. Last week, Jones was thrown at three teams but didn’t end up making any receptions. He did have four catches the week before against the Washington Redskins after TE Jermichael Finley got hurt. This really has become one of the only threats that Rodgers has underneath on the inside, so if the Vikes are going to be keying in on Jennings and WR Donald Driver, this could be the man that ends up taking all of the pressure off with short to medium routes. We’ll take a shot on Jones going Over 2 Receptions (-160 at Hollywood Sportsbook) in this battle against the Vikings.

NFL Football Picks: Monday Night Football Props (9/27/10)

September 27th, 2010 by Adam Markowitz (Bankroll Sports Head Columnist) | Posted in NFL Football  
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There aren’t many undefeated teams left standing in the NFL world this year, but two of them will take center stage on Monday night when the Green Bay Packers duke it out with the Chicago Bears. Our NFL handicappers have the best props on the board that you should be looking at when getting ready to place NFL prop bets on this game!

Longest Touchdown Over/Under 44.5 Yards
We haven’t quite seen the cannon for QB Aaron Rodgers come out yet this year, but that doesn’t mean that he doesn’t have the capability of throwing a 45 yard TD pass. The Bears don’t have a ton of deep threats either, but any time that WR Devin Hester touches the ball, magic can happen. One of the big boys for the Packers could pull this feat off at any second as well, as Rodgers loves chucking the ball to both WR Donald Driver and WR Greg Jennings. Especially since both of these defenses love taking chances, we’re going to say that there is going to be a TD of Over 44.5 yards (-115 at Hollywood Sportsbook) more often than not in a battle of these two squads.

Aaron Rodgers Over/Under 20 Completions
This is a relatively simple prop that should not be overanalyzed. Rodgers simply doesn’t have a ground game to rely on, and HC Mike McCarthy knows it. Trying to run into the teeth of the Chicago defense generally isn’t that good of an idea either, as the combo of DT Tommy Harris and LB Brian Urlacher is there to munch any running back in their paths. Instead, Rodgers is going to be asked to use slip screens and short dump offs as if they were long handoffs in this game. That being said, we don’t see how he isn’t going to go Over 20 completions (-120 at Hollywood Sportsbook).

Jermichael Finley Over/Under 4 Receptions
Finley is quickly becoming the security blanket that Rodgers uses when he can’t find either Driver or Jennings available down the field. This is emerging as one of the best tight ends in the game. Once again, if the Bears defense gets aggressive, Finley could be in for a big, big night. We don’t see how he won’t at least reach, and like end up going Over 4 Receptions (-130 at Hollywood Sportsbook) in this battle against the Bears.

Will Jay Cutler Throw an Interception?
This is just too easy to pass up! Cutler nearly reached the 30 INT mark last year, and now he’s going against a defense that is going to be in his face all night. Congrats to the Vandy grad for only throwing one INT in his first two games of the season. The fun and games are over tonight. Cutler Will throw an INT (-225 at Hollywood Sportsbook) in this game.

2010 NFL Betting: Preseason Top 10 ATS Power Rankings

August 14th, 2010 by Adam Markowitz (Bankroll Sports Head Columnist) | Posted in NFL Football  
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The 2010 NFL betting campaign is just around the corner! In order to keep you up on all the action, Bankroll Sports has listed the Top 10 ATS teams from 2009, their 2010 Super Bowl odds, and our NFL predictions for them for this season!

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Aaron Rodgers 2010 NFL Betting: Preseason Top 10 ATS Power Rankings #1 Green Bay Packers (+1000 to win Super Bowl XLV at JustBet Sportsbook): The Pack posted the best marks in the league last year for NFL betting fans, going 11-4-1 ATS. They are going to be back with a fantastic offense loaded with talent. QB Aaron Rodgers is likely to reach the 4,000 yard barrier for the third straight season to start his career, which is a feat that even some of the greatest in NFL history never even remotely came close to. If DC Dom Capers’ defense can keep its head on straight and post some of the best numbers in the league once again, there’s no reason to think that the Green Bay won’t once again be on top of the NFL ATS power ratings.

#2 Atlanta Falcons (+2500 to win Super Bowl XLV at JustBet Sportsbook): It’s impressive to think that the Falcons followed up a playoff campaign in 2008 with a non-playoff one in 2009 but still went a lofty 11-5 ATS. Could that bode even better for this year? HC Mike Smith thinks he has a winning formula, so he brought back the majority of players from last year’s 9-7 team. The only real key additions were LB Sean Weatherspoon, acquiring in the first round of the NFL Draft, and DB Dunta Robinson, who was picked up via free agency from the Houston Texans. Picking up Robinson was key, as it was the pass defense that really hurt this team late in games last season. Asking for 11 covers again this season might be a bit much, but Atlanta should post another great record this year.

#3 Indianapolis Colts (+600 to win Super Bowl XLV at JustBet Sportsbook): As long as #18 is roaming the sidelines for the Colts, they are going to be a difficult team to bet against. One would figure that the oddsmakers would be incredibly tough on them week in and week out, but in spite of the fact that their numbers are almost always at least a tad inflated, they went a rock solid 10-5-1 ATS in 2009. This could be the year that Indy snaps back to earth if the NFL spreads keep as high as they have been in recent seasons. It has a brutal schedule, and QB Peyton Manning is going to have to contend with a new offensive coordinator, as Tom Moore has retired.

#4 San Francisco 49ers (+3000 to win Super Bowl XLV at JustBet Sportsbook): This is probably a make-or-break season in the coaching career of Mike Singletary. No man asks for more from his team, nor will anyone get more from his players than does Singletary. Still, in spite of the fact that he went an awesome 9-4-3 ATS in last year’s regular season, Singletary has still yet to take this team to the playoffs. With a quarterback rotation set in stone and one of the most talented offensive lines in the game, the 49ers have no excuses this year. As long as the oddsmakers don’t start putting up unrealistically high numbers on it, San Francisco is going to be a great bet, particularly as underdogs this season.

mike holmgren 2010 NFL Betting: Preseason Top 10 ATS Power Rankings #5 Cleveland Browns (+10000 to win Super Bowl XLV at JustBet Sportsbook): The Browns closed out last season by winning four straight games both SU and ATS to finish the year at 10-6 ATS. The turnaround was sparked by the addition of GM Mike Holmgren to the staff. Holmgren decided to retain HC Eric Mangini, but he dumped both of his quarterbacks. If QB Jake Delhomme can reinvent himself and the Browns play as hard as they did down the stretch last season, they could challenge for a playoff spot in the AFC. The Steelers, Bengals, and Ravens need to be very careful when this team turns up on the schedule. The end result should be covers galore!

#6 Minnesota Vikings (+1000 to win Super Bowl XLV at JustBet Sportsbook): This is a team that is probably damned if it does and damned if it doesn’t. If QB Brett Favre does come back to Minnesota, it will likely be overinflated in most every game it plays due to the fact that Favre had an epic season last year. If he doesn’t come back, the oddsmakers are still probably going to overrate this team due to the fact that Tarvaris Jackson and Sage Rosenfels flat out stink. Duplicating last year’s 9-6-1 ATS mark is going to be virtually impossible unless someone comes up with a truly Herculean effort.

#7 Philadelphia Eagles (+3000 to win Super Bowl XLV at JustBet Sportsbook): Fly Eagles, fly! Philly could be an interesting team to back this year if QB Kevin Kolb can step right into the role that QB Donovan McNabb vacated when he was traded to the Washington Redskins in the offseason. The Eagles could have a porous defense which holds them back this year though, which could make that 9-7 ATS mark from 2009 difficult to repeat. Still, a lot of NFL lines are going to be tight when this team takes on its competitors, so if you think Philadelphia can win nine games, you probably think it can cover nine spreads as well.

#8 New York Jets (+1200 to win Super Bowl XLV at JustBet Sportsbook): Last season, the Jets fooled a lot of teams, and the end result was a stellar 9-7 ATS mark. They marched all the way to the AFC Championship Game on the back of a strong defense and a rushing attack that ranked first in the NFL. Conventional wisdom suggests that the additions of DB Antonio Cromartie and DB Kyle Wilson could make this defense even more frightening, especially now that DT Kris Jenkins is healthy. Still, it’s going to take QB Mark Sanchez improving his game for New York to put up these types of results again.

#9 Denver Broncos (+6500 to win Super Bowl XLV at JustBet Sportsbook): Though many are down on the Broncos this year, we have to remember that most of the pieces to this puzzle are once again back in place. The big losses are WR Brandon Marshall, TE Tony Scheffler, and LB Elvis Dumervil. Dumervil, who led the team with 17 sacks last year, might be able to play at the end of this season after tearing a pectoral muscle in the preseason. However, the oddsmakers are seemingly making huge adjustments to this team. Yes, the Broncos collapsed down the stretch last year, but losses don’t mean failed covers. If the numbers get too large, improving on a 9-7 ATS record from ’09 is doable.

#10 Carolina Panthers (+5000 to win Super Bowl XLV at JustBet Sportsbook): The same could be said about the Panthers and their 9-7 ATS record from last year. Losing QB Jake Delhomme might be addition by subtraction, as both Matt Moore and rookie Jimmy Clausen can’t do much worse than the former Louisiana-Lafayette Ragin’ Cajun did last year. This season will once again revolve around the defense and running backs DeAngelo Williams and Jonathan Stewart. The Panthers might be able to surprise, as several are down on their chances of making the postseason in what could be the final year for HC John Fox.