Archive for December 1st, 2012

2012 NFL Week 13 Lines – Week Thirteen Odds Breakdown

December 1st, 2012 by Adam Markowitz (Bankroll Sports Columnist) | Posted in NFL Football   Comments Off on 2012 NFL Week 13 Lines – Week Thirteen Odds Breakdown
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The List of Week 13 NFL Lines Are Listed At Bottom Of Article

Giants vs. RedskinsThe 2012 NFL season is winding towards the playoffs, and there are just five weeks left to go before the season comes to an end and the NFL playoff picture will be set. There is a lot of jockeying for position yet to do, and Week 13 will be lucky for some, and incredibly unlucky for others.

If you’re a fan of relatively surprising results, the Week 13 odds are probably for you. There are a tremendous number of close games that could go either way, but there are just four NFL point spreads this week thus far that are featuring odds of a field goal or less.

One of those games is the crucial tilt at Qualcomm Stadium, where the Cincinnati Bengals and San Diego Chargers will meet. The Bengals are back into the discussion for the AFC Wild Card spot, and they really would love to have this one to potentially take over as the lead dog for the sixth and final postseason bid in the AFC. The Chargers are on the verge of a disaster, and after losing a heartbreaker last weekend at home, a loss in this one would probably signal the end of the season and the end of Head Coach Norv Turner. Still, the Bengals are getting the nod by a two points.

Another of the close calls is going to come on Monday Night Football. The New York Giants and Washington Redskins are separated by just two games in the NFC East, and one of two things is going to happen this weekend. Either the G-Men are going to end up pulling away from the rest of the pack and really locking down the division title, or they’re going to be in a dog fight down the stretch. This is the chance for QB Robert Griffin III to shine, and the NFL odds suggest that he has a shot of pulling off the upset, as he and his Skins are just +2.5.

The other narrow NFL pointspreads are in games that really just aren’t all that interesting. The Carolina Panthers are laying a field goal to the Kansas City Chiefs at Arrowhead Stadium, while the Oakland Raiders are -1.5 against the Cleveland Browns. About the only interested man in these two games is QB Matt Barkley, who might be heading to one of these teams next year as the face of the franchise.

On the other end of the spectrum, there are three games that feature point spreads of greater than a touchdown, and these are some really interesting ones. The Dallas Cowboys are coming off of the debacle on Thanksgiving Day at home against Washington, and now, they are going to have to take on a Philadelphia Eagles team that is falling faster than an airplane without an engine. The Cowboys are giving 9.5.

Ironically, that’s the exact same point spread that the Green Bay Packers are favored over the Minnesota Vikings on Sunday. Both of these teams were beaten last week by contenders in the NFC, and they are both going to really need a win in this one to get back on good footing. The loser is going to be in a lot of trouble in the race in the NFC Wild Card chase, and that team could be out of the chase to win the NFC North as well, which might be a death sentence in the crowded and top heavy NFC.

The third big favorites are the New England Patriots, who actually can wrap up the AFC East if they beat the Miami Dolphins on Sunday. They’re three up games right now, and they’re going to be up four with four to play if they win in South Beach. If not though, this could become a relatively interesting stretch run for both teams. Remember that Miami is just a game out in the AFC Wild Card race as well. The Fins are getting a 7.5 point head start to cover the spread in wacky Week 13.

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Elsewhere around the league, the general feeling is that the rich are going to get richer, and the poor are going to get poorer. The Chicago Bears are the perfect example. They’re heading up the NFC North at 8-3 and are right on the verge of a first round bye in the playoffs. They’ll take on the Seattle Seahawks, who are going to be playing in their second straight road game a long way from home. The Hawks, who are in the final playoff slot right now, are +4.5.

Seattle is still trying to chase down the San Francisco 49ers in the NFC West as well, but the Niners aren’t relenting at 8-2-1. QB Colin Kaepernick clearly has taken over as the man of the hour for the Niners, and he is going to be facing a second straight road test in this one as well. San Francisco is favored by a touchdown over the St. Louis Rams in a rematch of the tie game at Candlestick Park from a few weeks ago.

On Thursday Night Football, the Atlanta Falcons are favored by 3.5 against the New Orleans Saints, while the other 10-1 team in the league, the Houston Texans, are giving 5.5 to the Tennessee Titans.

Elsewhere at the top of the AFC, the Denver Broncos are -7 at home against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, while the Baltimore Ravens are -6.5 at home against the Pittsburgh Steelers, who are hoping to get QB Ben Roethlisberger back in the lineup.

There are only three games left that we have not referenced. The Indianapolis Colts and Detroit Lions are going to be battling it out to get into the playoffs in their respective conferences. Detroit knows that it is going to need to win out in all likelihood to get into the playoffs, in a very tough task in the NFC North. The Buffalo Bills are still in the thick of the fight in the AFC Wild Card race with so many teams at the bottom struggling, and they are going to need to take down the Jacksonville Jaguars to keep that dream intact. The Bills are favored by six in Orchard Park. Finally, the New York Jets, even without Fireman Ed in attendance, are laying 4.5 to the slumping Arizona Cardinals, who really have to have Head Coach Ken Whisenhunt on alert for his job after a seventh loss in a row last week.

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This is one of the more interesting weeks of NFL totals that we have seen all year. It shouldn’t go as much of a surprise that the Falcons and Saints are combining for the highest ‘total’ of the season. Both QB Matt Ryan and QB Drew Brees have the ability to really light it up, and they are both clearly going to be able to put points up in bunches against defenses that have both been suspect at best. However, the number of 55.5 is one of the highest that you’ll see, not just this year, but really ever in the NFL.

There are four other games that are featuring ‘totals’ in the 50s as well. QB Peyton Manning and company only put up 17 points last week against Kansas City, but the team had dropped at least 30 in five games in a row before that. That’s why the Bucs and Broncos are sitting in at 50.5 right now. Indy and Detroit feature a ‘total’ of 51.5 after the offensive showcase on Thanksgiving Day in Motown, while Monday Night Football also features a ‘total’ of 51.

However, on the other end of the spectrum, there are at least two games that feature ‘totals’ as low as we have seen this year. The Jets and the Cardinals are two of the worst offensive teams in the league right now, and that’s why they have the lowest over/under on the Week 13 odds at 36.5. The Bears and Seahawks aren’t much higher at 37.5, though. Don’t be shocked when push comes to shove, if the Steelers and Ravens end up in the 30s as well. The opening number is set at 40, but that could dip if the news about Big Ben isn’t good.

2012 NFL Week 13 Odds @ WagerWeb Sportsbook (as of 12/1/12):
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Week 13 NFL Odds for Thursday, November 29th
301 New Orleans Saints +3.5
302 Atlanta Falcons -3.5
Over/Under 54

NFL Week 13 Lines for Sunday, December 1st (1:00 ET Kickoffs)
339 Seattle Seahawks +3
340 Chicago Bears -3
Over/Under 37.5

341 Minnesota Vikings +7.5
342 Green Bay Packers -7.5
Over/Under 45.5

343 San Francisco 49ers -7.5
344 St. Louis Rams +7.5
Over/Under 41

345 Arizona Cardinals +6
346 New York Jets -6
Over/Under 36.5

347 Carolina Panthers -3.5
348 Kansas City Chiefs +3.5
Over/Under 38.5

349 Indianapolis Colts +6.5
350 Detroit Lions -6.5
Over/Under 51

351 Jacksonville Jaguars +6
352 Buffalo Bills -6
Over/Under 42.5

353 New England Patriots -7.5
354 Miami Dolphins +7.5
Over/Under 51

355 Houston Texans -6.5
356 Tennessee Titans +6.5
Over/Under 47

NFL Week 13 Betting Lines for Sunday, December 1st (4:00 ET Kickoffs)
357 Tampa Bay Buccaneers +8
358 Denver Broncos -8
Over/Under 50.5

359 Pittsburgh Steelers +7.5
360 Baltimore Ravens -7.5
Over/Under 36

361 Cleveland Raiders -1.5
362 Oakland Raiders +1.5
Over/Under 37.5

363 Cincinnati Bengals -1.5
364 San Diego Chargers +1.5
Over/Under 46

Sunday Night Football Week 13 Odds for Sunday, December 1st
365 Philadelphia Eagles +10.5
366 Dallas Cowboys -10.5
Over/Under 43

Monday Night Football Week 13 Lines for Monday, December 2nd
367 New York Giants -3
368 Washington Redskins +3
Over/Under 51

Thursday Night NFL Picks: Broncos vs. Raiders Props/Predictions 12/6

December 1st, 2012 by Adam Markowitz (Bankroll Sports Columnist) | Posted in NFL Football   Comments Off on Thursday Night NFL Picks: Broncos vs. Raiders Props/Predictions 12/6
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Full Broncos vs. Raiders NFL Prop Sheet Listed Below

Peyton Manning Broncos vs. RaidersThe Oakland Raiders and Denver Broncos are set to continue the 2012 NFL season, and as a part of our analysis of the Week 14 betting lines, we are taking a look at some of the best NFL props on the board for this crucial Thursday Night Football matchup.

Longest Field Goal of the Game Over/Under 44.5 Yards: Oh, c’mon! This is Sea Bass we’re talking about! K Sebastian Janikowski has only missed two kicks this year, and they are both of the 60+ yard variety. Just by himself, he has had five games this year in which he has booted a field goal of at least 45 yards, and in four of those games, that kick has come from at least 51 yards. There is no doubt if Oakland gets inside of the Denver 40 yard line, Head Coach Dennis Allen has no doubts about sending on his kicking unit. K Matt Prater is a slightly different story, as he has had a few games this year without a single field goal. He does have three games with field goals made of over 50 yards, and one of those games was against these very same Raiders. It really seems as though there will be at least a whack or two from long range in this one, and we have to think that, especially if it’s Janikowski, he’ll have no problems booting it through the uprights. Longest Field Goal of the Game Over 44.5 Yards -115

Will the Raiders Ever Lead Against the Broncos?: They didn’t the first time these teams played… Granted, this game is at home, and we don’t expect to see the Broncos put up over 500 yards of offense once again, but it still feels like there has to be nowhere near a 50/50 chance that the Raiders don’t even find their way in front in this one. Denver hasn’t led from start to finish in a game since October 28th against the New Orleans Saints, and it is really, really tough to be that to a team on the road. At some point, Oakland has to get on the board, whether it be first or shortly thereafter, and if that turns out to be the case, we would like to think that it is going to be in front for at least a few seconds in this one, no matter how bad the end result might truly be. Oakland Raiders To Lead During The Game (-160)

Peyton Manning Over/Under 299.5 Passing Yards: Manning has been insanely efficient this year, throwing for over 3,500 yards in spite of the fact that he has fewer pass attempts than any other quarterback that has thrown for that many yards. The problem that we have with Manning is that he hasn’t reached 300 passing yards but once in the last five games, and that was a game in which he had just 301 yards. Manning has only exceeded 309 yards three times this year, and that hasn’t happened since losing to the New England Patriots back in Week 5. Granted, one of those times did come against these Raiders, but is Manning really going to complete 78.9 percent of his passes again in this one. It’s entirely possible, especially knowing that the Raiders’ defense has been a sieve over the course of the last several weeks of the season, but it really seems like a square as heck play to think that Manning is going to get to three bills more often than not in this one. Peyton Manning Under 299.5 Passing Yards (+100)

Demaryius Thomas Over/Under 95.5 Receiving Yards: Just because Manning is down though, doesn’t mean that Thomas has to be down, too. The Georgia Tech product has been out of this world over the course of this season, and he has five 100+ yard games on the campaign (to go with his 99-yard effort last week). When Manning gets locked in with Thomas, it is starting to look like the good old days of when he was getting the job done with WR Marvin Harrison. Thomas is his security blanket, especially when the going gets tough. Thomas hasn’t had a 100+ yard game since Week 10, but this is the worst secondary that he has run across since that point as well. Manning will hit him with a bomb over the course of this one, and a few of the medium range passes will put Thomas over the top by the end of the third quarter. Demaryius Thomas Over 95.5 Receiving Yards (-115)

Denver Broncos vs. Oakland Raiders NFL Props @ JustBet Sportsbook (as of 12/6/12):
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Score in the First 6 Minutes of the Game -120
No Score in the First 6 Minutes of the Game -110

Broncos Score First -200
Raiders Score First +160

First Score a Touchdown -180
First Score Not a Touchdown +150

Longest Touchdown of the Game Over 46.5 Yards -115
Longest Touchdown of the Game Under 46.5 Yards -115

Longest Made Field Goal of the Game Over 44.5 Yards -115
Longest Made Field Goal of the Game Under 44.5 Yards -115

Shortest Made Field Goal of the Game Over 25.5 Yards -130
Shortest Made Field Goal of the Game Under 25.5 Yards +100

Special Teams Or Defensive Touchdown Scored +160
No Special Teams Or Defensive Touchdown Scored -200

Raiders To Ever Lead The Game -160
Raiders To Never Lead The Game +130

Peyton Manning Passing Yards Over 299.5 -130
Peyton Manning Passing Yards Under 299.5 +100

Peyton Manning TD Passes Over 2.5 -115
Peyton Manning TD Passes Under 2.5 -115

Peyton Manning Throws an Interception -115
Peyton Manning Doesn’t Throw an Interception -115

Demaryius Thomas Receiving Yards Over 95.5 -115
Demaryius Thomas Receiving Yards Under 95.5 -115

Demaryius Thomas Scores a Touchdown -130
Demaryius Thomas Doesn’t Score a Touchdown +100