Archive for January 7th, 2011

Kraft Fight Hunger Bowl Picks: Boston College vs. Nevada Analysis

January 7th, 2011 by Adam Markowitz (Bankroll Sports Columnist) | Posted in College Football   Comments Off on Kraft Fight Hunger Bowl Picks: Boston College vs. Nevada Analysis
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It’ll be a college football betting dichotomy on Sunday night in San Francisco, as we get our chance to sink our teeth into one final appetizer before the main course and the BCS National Championship Game on Monday. The Nevada Wolf Pack will look to run over the Boston College Eagles in a game that should be a ton of fun at Candlestick Park. These two teams have a lot to prove, but they are complete opposites of one another. Don’t be surprised if these three keys to the game prove to make the difference on which club beats the Kraft Fight Hunger Bowl odds.

Key #1: The Eagles have to flex their defensive muscles
We know that the Nevada offense is going to get its yards and its points, but there is no reason to think that a month and a half of preparation for this game isn’t enough for the Eagles to be able to put up a great fight here in San Francisco. This is a team that prides itself on the fact that it hasn’t allowed a team to score more than 16 points against it in basically half of a season, and though that clearly won’t stay the case after the Kraft Fight Hunger Bowl, it is a fantastic goal. BC had the No. 1 ranked rushing defense in the land this year at just over 70 yards per game, and Head Coach Frank Spaziani is doing a lot of things to be able to help this team out. RB Montel Harris is sure to carry the ball at least 20 times in this game (more on this later), which should chew up some clock and keep the Pistol loaded on the sidelines for Nevada.

Kraft Fight Hunger Bowl Odds at JustBet
Boston College Eagles +7.5
Nevada Wolf Pack -7.5
Over/Under 55
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Key #2: Colin Kaepernick and Vai Taua have to want to go out victorious
QB Colin Kaepernick and RB Vai Taua have done a lot of things in their illustrious careers here in Reno. Kaepernick became the first man from a non-BCS conference to have at least 20 TDs both on the ground and through the air in the same season this year, and he is only the third to be able to pull off the feat in the history of major college football regardless of conference affiliation. He has thrown for 9,906 yards and 81 TDs, and has rushed for 4,091 yards and 59 TDs in his great career. Taua is now out of the shadow of the man he used to split the backfield with, RB Luke Lippincott. He accounted for 1,750 yards and 22 TDs this year, giving him 4,524 yards and 44 TDs on the ground with another 58 receptions for 561 yards and eight TDs as a receiver. These two have been a part of the only trio of rushers to ever have 1,000+ yards in the same season when they pulled off the feat last year, and they have averaged over 500 yards of offense per game in each of the last three seasons. What they have not done, though, is win a bowl game. In fact, you have to go back to the 2005 Hawaii Bowl in an OT victory against the UCF Knights to find the last win in a bowl game. This team was shut out three years ago by the New Mexico Lobos and was held to just 10 points against the SMU Mustangs last year. It would be a real travesty to see these two leave college without tasting what a bowl victory is like.

Key #3: Chase Rettig has to take care of the pigskin
We don’t care who you are. If you are turning the ball over and making little mistakes against the Wolf Pack, you’re going to lose. Just ask the Boise State Broncos how well they did when they were making dumb mistakes in the second half against these guys. We’ve already talked about the importance of RB Montel Harris, as he is sure to have his touches and will keep this offense moving. This junior has already accounted for 3,599 yards and 27 TDs on the ground in his career, and this is going to be a real showcase game for him here in San Francisco. However, the man of the hour on this offense is QB Chase Rettig. Just a freshman, Rettig was sort of thrown into the fire this year when neither QB Mike Marscovetra nor QB David Shinskie could get the job done. Rettig basically has half of a season of experience now as the team’s starting quarterback, and he threw for 1,117 yards and six TDs against seven picks. He doesn’t have to be a hero, but Rettig is going to have to make a few plays here and there just to keep this offense going. If Nevada is forcing him into some dumb, freshman mistakes though, the Eagles are in a boatload of trouble.

BBVA Compass Bowl Picks: Kentucky Wildcats vs. Pittsburgh Panthers

January 7th, 2011 by Adam Markowitz (Bankroll Sports Columnist) | Posted in College Football   Comments Off on BBVA Compass Bowl Picks: Kentucky Wildcats vs. Pittsburgh Panthers
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Teams that have programs that are clearly heading in the opposite direction right now look to gain some momentum in the BBVA Compass Bowl in Birmingham on Saturday afternoon. The Pittsburgh Panthers will try their best to beat the NCAA football betting odds against the up and coming Kentucky Wildcats. Beating the BBVA Compass Bowl lines in this one could be tough, and though the spread has gone the way of the Panthers for the majority of the last two weeks, the line is inevitably going to be very tight. Which way should you go? Hopefully these three keys to the game will help you out!

Key #1: Pittsburgh has to want to be here
We know that this is a very difficult task for the Panthers. There is no doubt that a Kentucky team that fought all season long in the SEC just to finish at .500 is going to be thrilled to play in a bowl game this year under first year Head Coach Joker Phillips, but there is a real question there for U-Pitt. The team’s Head Coach Dave Wannstedt won’t be here in Birmingham, as he was forced to step down after another very iffy season that resulted in a second tier bowl bid. Defensive Coordinator Phil Bennett is going to be taking over as the team’s head coach for this game, and he very well could end up using this as his interview to be the next man in charge of the team. The only reason this is possible though, is because Head Coach Mike Haywood, who was signed just a few weeks ago, was released from his duties after being arrested for a domestic violence call against him. Now, to top it all off, the up and down Panthers aren’t playing in a BCS bowl game, something that looked like a near certainty at the start of November, as they blew a two game edge in the conference and are stuck playing in one of the last bowl games of the year in one of the least desirable locations for a duel.

BBVA Compass Bowl Odds at JustBet
Kentucky Wildcats +3.5
Pittsburgh Panthers -3.5
Over/Under 52.5
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Key #2: Morgan Newton needs to prove that he is a superstar in the making
Phillips really had a tough time deciding who his quarterback was going to be in camp this year, and he decided to go with experience over athleticism, choosing QB Mike Hartline over QB Morgan Newton. Here at the BBVA Compass Bowl though, he really doesn’t have a lot of options. Hartline was suspended for this game a month ago, and he won’t be making the trip to Birmingham with the team. Instead, the ball belongs to Newton, who will inevitably take most of the snaps over the course of the day. Newton only threw the ball seven times this year, and he had just four carries, but he brings a level of athleticism to the table that kind of looks like another SEC quarterback with the last name of Newton… No, we’re not confusing Morgan for Cameron, but we know that UK’s Newton does have the ability to make plays both with his arm and with his legs, and he can really confuse the defense for the Panthers if he takes full advantage of his skill set. Newton just has to relax and let the game come to him in his first career start, and he should be fine, especially if he listens to Key No. 3…

Key #3: The ball must get into the hands of Randall Cobb
The Panthers have a fantastic defense, ranking No. 9 in the country and ranking in the Top 25 against the rush, the pass, and in scoring. However, this unit clearly has some chink that can be exposed, and it is going to be up to Cobb to make those cracks even bigger. Cobb touched the football an average of 11.8 times per game this year, but that isn’t going to cut it here in the BBVA Compass Bowl. Cobb has the ability to really light up a game in a hurry, as he will take the snap directly as a Wildcat QB, where he can throw the ball, run the ball either to the inside or to the outside, or hand it off, he can take wide receiver sweeps, and he can catch passes. Between those three things, he accounted for over 1,400 yards this year with 15 TDs. Not only does Cobb getting his numbers put points on the board directly for the Wildcats, but it takes attention away from RB Derrick Locke and WR Chris Matthews, the two of which ended up with 19 TDs between them on the year. If the Panthers can’t figure out where Cobb is at all times when he breaks the huddle, they are going to be in a ton of trouble, as this young man can really do it all on the field.

BCS Bowl Picks: Oregon Ducks vs. Auburn Tigers Keys to the Game

January 7th, 2011 by Adam Markowitz (Bankroll Sports Columnist) | Posted in College Football   1 Comment »

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For several weeks, we have been anticipating how the BCS National Championship picture would pan out. Once and for all, we know that the Auburn Tigers will be facing off with the Oregon Ducks as the No. 1 and No. 2 teams in the country, and the winning team will collect the hardware as the National Champions in 2010-11. With still a month to go before the game kicks off, we present the three keys to the biggest game of the year that you need to pay attention to before making your BCS Championship picks. The opening National Championship line features Auburn favored by 2.5 points, while the ‘total’ has been set at 74.5.

Key #1: Auburn’s Defense Must Stop LaMichael James and the Oregon Ground Attack
Last week, when we analyzed this from the standpoint of the Civil War with the Oregon State Beavers, we wished the Beavs good luck. They needed it. The Ducks rushed for 346 yards without QB Darron Thomas even taking a single step past the line of scrimmage on the day. The Quack Attack is averaging 309.9 yards per game this year on the ground, and that is being parlayed into the most points in the nation at 49.3 per game. To make matters worse for the opponents, if you take out that close call at the Cal Golden Bears, Oregon is averaging 323.1 yards per game on the ground, 562.3 yards per game in total, and 52.5 point per game. If the Ducks end up scoring 61 points or more in this one, they would become the highest scoring team in the history of college football. The only team with more was the 2005 Texas Longhorns, who scored 652 points… in 14 games… Oregon would have pulled this feat off in just 13 games. James is clearly going to be a finalist for the Heisman Trophy this year, as he has rushed for 1,702 yards and 21 TDs on the campaign. However, we can’t forget about RB Kenjon Barner and QB Darron Thomas either. Barner has rushed for 537 yards and six scores and just reached the century mark in the Civil War, while Thomas has 496 yards and five TDs on the ground as well. Auburn’s defense has been great against the rush this year, but it has not faced a foe like this all season long. The Tigers ranked No. 9 in the land at just 104.0 yards per game allowed, but they’ll have to really buckle down to keep the Quack Attack under 250 yards in that department.

Key #2: Cameron Newton Must Play Like Vince Young
We’ve already made one comparison in this game to the 2005 Texas Longhorns, and we are about to make our second. QB Cam Newton has drawn all sorts of comparisons to QB Vince Young, whom many thought was the best player that college football had seen until QB Tim Tebow graced the grounds at the University of Florida. There really were no players like Young that could just single handedly tear apart any defense in the country and do so seemingly without ever breaking a sweat. Who could forget about that legendary National Championship Game against the USC Trojans in January 2006 in which he rushed for 200 yards and three TDs and threw for 267 yards, gliding through one of the best defenses that the collegiate ranks had ever seen. Many think that Newton, just a junior, is better than Young is at this stage of his career. After putting up numbers like this, it’s hard to disagree. Newton, in the significantly tougher SEC, has thrown for 2,589 yards and rushed for 1,409 more, and he has thrown for 28 TDs, rushed for 20 TDs, and has one more as a receiver as well. Newton is one of just two players in the history of college football to both throw and rush for at least 20 TDs in the same season, joining Florida’s Tebow. He has also only been picked off six times and has only lost one fumble. Oregon’s defense has been known to have some holes in it, and it clearly never ran up against an offense like this anywhere in the Pac-10 this year, save perhaps against the Stanford Cardinal. However, there are no signal callers like Newton in the Pac-10, and the Ducks are finally going to get a taste of their own medicine. Still, it will be up to Newton to bust open the Oregon defense time and time again to keep up with the scoring pace that the Ducks are clearly going to be going with.

Key #3: Some Star Must Shine Outside of the Two Heisman Candidates
Believe it or not, there are more than just two players in this game! LaMichael James and Cam Newton are both amazing, but they are not the only men on the field. You can bet that after a month of game planning, the defenses are going to be keyed in on the two studs. However, there are some other men to watch, and inevitably, one of these guys is going to be the difference maker that wins the title for his school. For Auburn, the men to really keep an eye on are DT Nick Fairley, RB Michael Dyer, RB Onterio McCalebb, and WR Darvin Adams. Adams caught that ridiculous Hail Mary pass at the end of the first half of the SEC Championship Game, and he broke the SEC Championship Game record with 217 yards on seven receptions with a pair of scores… and all of those stats came in the first half. Dyer rushed for 950 yards and five scores this year, while McCalebb had 763 yards and nine TDs. Fairley is going to be the top defensive player from either of these teams, and he is the difference maker in the middle of the defensive line that will be responsible for closing down the inside ground game of the Ducks. On the other side of the field, we know that freshman S John Boyett, the team’s leader in INTs, is going to have to be at his best on the game’s biggest stage. We’ve already spoken about what RB Kenjon Barner has the ability to do, but we can’t forget about WR Jeffrey Maehl either. Maehl has been up and down at times this year, but he has 943 yards and 12 scores on a team high 68 receptions. Looking for a dark horse that could be a real difference maker for Oregon? Don’t forget about WR Josh Huff. Huff has done a little bit of everything this year, as he has 13 carries for 210 yards, 19 receptions for 303 yards, and 534 kick return yards with a total of six TDs.