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As our expert handicappers continue to prepare for the upcoming football season, my fellow Bankoll Sports bloggers and staff writers will continue to find the best preseason odds and picks for all your football props and futures. And, we will continue to offer up our picks. My colleges have already broken down the conference previews and given you full explanations of what you might expect to see from the NFL in 2009. However, we will now take this a step further and make our over/under picks for how many wins some of these teams will accomplish this season, taking advantage of the odds that some of these books (including; Superbook / 50% cash signup bonus using this link & BetUS Sportsbook – 100% match play bonus when using this link) have posted. As always, the Bankroll Sports website continue to bring to you free football picks picks that are sure to beef up your bankroll for the 2009 post season.
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Check our what the writers and I have come up with for our 2009 NFL team win totals.
Free Pick #1: New Orleans Saints
Over 9 Wins -115
Under 9 Wins -115
The New Orleans Saints return the NFL’s best offense from 2008. Drew Brees racked up over 5,000 yards to lead the best passing attack in the NFL. The Saints offense will again be among the best in the NFL this season, but they still have concerns on defense. The defense ranked in the bottom 7 in scoring defense last season allowing nearly 25 points per game. However, the defense should be much improved this season. Defensive ends, Charles Grant (triceps) and Will Smith (hernia) both played with injuries last year and the Saints struggled to get and pressure at all on the quarterback. Both of these key players should be healthy heading into the season, making the defensive front stronger. Also, the secondary will get the addition of Ohio State’s Malcolm Jenkins. Despite not having any experience, Jenkins will play immediately. The Saints also added CB Jabari Greer from Buffalo to their secondary that gave up 221 yards per game. New Orleans may not have one of the best defenses this season, but they should be highly improved. Even with the horrible defense in 2008, the Saints were a factor in nearly every game. Their 8-8 record can be a bit misleading considering 6 of those losses were by 5 points or less. Expect some things to fall their way this year and watch for a breakout season from the highly talented New Orleans Saints.
Pick – Over 9 Wins
Free Pick #2: Chicago Bears
Over 8 ½ Wins -140
Under 8 ½ Wins +110
Basically if you are going to try and get me to believe the Bears will win less games than they did in 2008 I would love to hear your explanation. Chicago landed one of the best young quarterbacks in the game over the off season in Jay Cutler. The problems that have plagued the Bears for the last few years are finally over behind center. Sure, the Bears may not have any big play-maker at wide out like most experts like to say or is that argument legit? Devin Hester has tremendous speed but we have never been able to see how effective his speed is because there has not been a quarterback that could hit him down field. Cutler can make all the throws on the field including the bombs down field so we will really get to see what the receiving core can do. Plus there are some talented young receivers in the stable as well. The Bears defense is popularly known for being strong every year. The defense did not have the season expected on paper in 2008, but a lot of that could be blamed on the offense which gave up 27 turnovers. There is just no way the Bears will be worse than last season with Cutler behind center. In fact they should be focusing more on the winning the NFC North than having to worry about improving their record.
Pick – Over 8 1/2
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Free Pick #3: Detroit Lions
Over 4 ½ -125
Under 4 ½ -105
This line maybe a sucker bet, but I will bite. The Detroit Lions will definitely be improved behind new coach Jim Schwartz. The Lions loaded up on talent during the NFL draft landing the number 1 overall pick with quarterback Matthew Stafford and also grabbing tight end Brandon Pettigrew late in the first round. However, they still have the worse offensive line in football and they are not going to be able to protect Stafford. The offensive line gave up 52 sacks in 2008 and they have yet to sign the first player that could turn that around. Plus the biggest problem last season was not only the offense, but perhaps even bigger the problem lie on the defensive side of the ball. The Lions allowed 404 yards per game last season by far the worse in the league. Detroit also ranked dead last in scoring defense allowing 32 points per game. The Lions added some players on defense like cornerbacks Phillip Buchanon (Tampa Bay) and Anthony Henry (Dallas). Detroit also drafted Louis Delmas (Western Michigan) to add support in the weak secondary. However, these players are not the ones that will turn things around. They still have major issues up front and stopping the run. I believe the Lions win a few games, but 5 wins may be a bit too optimistic.
Pick – Under 4 ½
Free Pick #4: Baltimore Ravens
Over 8 ½ -175
Under 8 ½ +145
The odds on this line may not be the most profitable, but I believe this bet is probably the best of them all. I had the Ravens to upset the Steelers this season in the AFC North despite getting beat 3 times by the Steelers in 2008. The Ravens defense ranked 2nd in nearly every category behind Pittsburgh last season. They may have some aging veterans on that side of the ball, but I would expect no less than a top 3 defense again this season. Rookie Joe Flacco had a tremendous season behind center and it will be interesting to see if he can continue to progress. Flacco really controlled the ball well towards the end of the season and you could also see the confidence building behind Flacco through the play calling. The Ravens attempted a good bit of deep balls towards the end of the season and I’m guessing they will attempt even more early this season. WR Derrick Mason is one of the best in the league even though he may not get the credit he deserves. LeRon McClain led the team in rushing with 902 yards in 2008. However, McClain will be making the move to fullback this season. Willis McGahee and Ray Rice will get the bulk of the carries in the backfield. However, having McClain in the back field as well should give defenses extra concern in the running game. The Ravens may become a much bigger offensive force this season and that is one reason I predicting them to take down the AFC North. The defense would have to fall apart and the offense become motionless for the Ravens to be held under 9 wins.
Pick – Over 8 ½
Free Pick #5 (Best Bet): Carolina Panthers
Over 8 ½ -105
Under 8 ½ -125
I have the Carolina Panthers listed as a team that could really be in some serious trouble this season. Do not get me wrong, they do have some talented personnel that can perform. However, they are a team with a lot of issues. One of these issues is quarterback Jake Delhomme. I have believed Delhomme has held this team back for years. My theory was backed up in the playoffs last year against Arizona when he threw 5 interceptions. If it wasn’t for the playmaking ability of Steve Smith, the passing game in Carolina would be non-existent. The Panthers strength last season was the ground attack led by Jonathon Stewart and DeAngelo Williams. The two combined for nearly 2300 yards as one of the best duos in the league. The offensive line should get a lot of that credit for the strong running attack. Carolina will have another strong front five again this season. However, the offensive line will have very little depth heading into this season, meaning if the big guys start going down, then so will the running game. Another reason the unit maybe heading for destruction in 2009, is their very poor run defense. The rush defense allowed over 120 yards per game ranking in the bottom of the NFL. Star defensive end Julius Peppers signed a one year deal even though it was obvious he wanted out of town. However, the Panthers franchised Peppers for a one year deal worth just under 17 million. Rookie Everette Brown will be the long term replacement for Peppers, but it will take him a while before he is terrorizing quarterbacks and turning heads. The defensive front could really take a step back this season which is a bad combination with the already shaky secondary. Those combinations on offense and defense will just be too much for the team to overcome this season. History shows that the NFC South usually flip flops every season. The Panthers may have won the division in 2008, but do not be surprised if they are at the bottom of the NFC South in 2009.
Pick – Under 8 ½
