Archive for the ‘NFL Football’ Category

Dallas Cowboys vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers NFL Prop Picks 12/17/11

December 12th, 2011 by Adam Markowitz (Bankroll Sports Columnist) | Posted in NFL Football   Comments Off on Dallas Cowboys vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers NFL Prop Picks 12/17/11
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Our NFL prop picks continue with our Thursday Night Football picks and our Dallas Cowboys vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers prop picks. Be sure to check out our NFL prop picks for the big duel on Thursday, courtesy of BetOnline Sportsbook.

Tony Romo -42.5 Passing Yards vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers QBs
Over the course of the last few weeks, Romo really hasn’t had as many passing yards as you would figure. He only passed the 300-yard mark for the first time since Week 6 last week against the Giants, and in that game, the Cowboys allowed 400 passing yards to QB Eli Manning. We know that QB Josh Freeman has been a nightmare in terms of turning the ball over, but that doesn’t mean that he is all of a sudden going to end up forgetting how to throw the pigskin down the field. For all of their problems this year, the Bucs QBs are averaging 241.7 passing yards per game between them. This is a bad secondary that they are going against, and we think that they can get into the 260s or 270s in this one. Don’t be shocked if Tampa Bay’s QBs win this prop outright. Getting 42.5 yards is a heck of a start. Tampa Bay QBs +42.5 Passing Yards (-110 at BetOnline Sportsbook)

LeGarrette Blount +24.5 Rushing/Receiving Yards vs. Felix Jones
Jones is going to be back as the starting back for the Cowboys, but that doesn’t mean that he is going to immediately step in and put up the numbers that RB DeMarco Murray did. Murray was clearly the superior back of the two for this offense, and we just don’t know whether we are only going to see Jones in the backfield or not. RB Phillip Tanner could get some looks, especially in short yardage situations. Though Blount has been splitting carries all over the place with backs like RB Kregg Lumpkin and RB Moises Madu, he has still generally been getting his looks. He has at least 18 carries in three of his last four games. The problem is that you’re not going to get a lot of “Wow!” plays from Blount, and he isn’t going to pitch into the passing game all that often. But if he can get himself 80 yards in this one on the ground, we see no reason why he wouldn’t be a big time winner. Again, we think that this NFL prop should be a heck of a lot closer to a pick ’em than anything else. LeGarrette Blount +24.5 Rushing/Receiving Yards vs. Felix Jones (-115 at BetOnline Sportsbook).

Total Field Goals Over/Under 3.5
We know that K Dan Bailey has had some issues over the course of the last few weeks kicking important field goals at the gun, but we also know that he has just a slew of attempts this year. Bailey has made 31 of his 35 field goal attempts, and he has had at least two attempts in each of his last six games. The Dallas offense just has a tendency of reaching the red zone and just flopping. K Connor Barth, at times, is the only offense that the Bucs have. He hasn’t missed a kick since Week 6, and Head Coach Raheem Morris has a ton of confidence in him. We don’t think that there will be a shortage of yards in this game, but whether either team can execute in the red zone is a totally different story. Over 3.5 Field Goals (+145 at BetOnline Sportsbook).

Jacksonville Jaguars vs. Atlanta Falcons NFL Prop Picks 12/15/11

December 10th, 2011 by Adam Markowitz (Bankroll Sports Columnist) | Posted in NFL Football   Comments Off on Jacksonville Jaguars vs. Atlanta Falcons NFL Prop Picks 12/15/11
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Our NFL prop picks continue with our Thursday Night Football picks and our Jacksonville Jaguars vs. Atlanta Falcons prop picks. Be sure to check out our NFL prop picks for the big duel on Thursday, courtesy of BetOnline Sportsbook.

Blaine Gabbert Over/Under 17.5 Completions
Simply put, we just really don’t trust Gabbert all that much. In a game in which the Jags forced seven turnovers and had the ball for seemingly the entire game, the former Missouri Tiger only completed 19-of-33 passing. That Falcons aren’t going to hand the ball over nearly that much, and they promise to have a better pass rush and more heart than the Bucs did. Considering the fact that this game will have so many fewer opportunities for the Jaguars than last week’s win did, we have no choice but to go with Blaine Gabbert Under 17.5 Pass Completions (-110 at BetOnline Sportsbook)

Total Punts Over/Under 10.5
Jacksonville punted the ball away seven times last week in a game that it dominated. The team has already punted the ball 81 times this year, including a number of which have come via the three and out. If the Jaguars punt the ball another seven times in this game it’s going to be hard to see the punt total get to anything less than 11. The Falcons take a ton of chances and chuck the ball deep all the time, and Head Coach Mike Smith often puts the ball in the hands of his punter, who is averaging almost five punts per game. It seems like a winner to us, especially with both of these teams playing on short notice and Jacksonville playing its third game under its new coach in 11 days. Over 10.5 Punts (-115 at BetOnline Sportsbook).

Matt Ryan -50.5 Passing Yards vs. Blaine Gabbert
We have already spoken just a tad about Gabbert and how we really don’t trust the fact that he is going to complete even 15 passes in this game. That being said, we take a look at the numbers that Matty Ice has put up of late and make the assumption that he is going to get to at least 260 yards through the air. He has reached that mark in six straight games, and he is starting to take some more shots down the field. He has a full set of receivers with WR Roddy White and a now-healthy WR Julio Jones, and this offense is a heck of a lot more efficient with both healthy and in the lineup. Ryan already has 3,474 passing yards this year, and we think that he is going to fly past the 4,000 mark before season’s end, especially at the rate of which he is going right now. If Ryan gets to 272, that would mean that Gabbert would have to have a career high in passing yards in order to beat us. We just don’t see any way that that could happen. Barring an injury, this should be a slam dunk. Matt Ryan -50.5 Passing Yards vs. Blaine Gabbert (-115 at BetOnline Sportsbook).

2011 NFL Prop Picks – Week 14 Fantasy Football Sleepers

December 9th, 2011 by Adam Markowitz (Bankroll Sports Columnist) | Posted in NFL Football   Comments Off on 2011 NFL Prop Picks – Week 14 Fantasy Football Sleepers
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Fantasy Football picks are here at Bankroll Sports this year, and we are going to try to make the most of your NFL props betting options at BoDog Sportsbook by giving you some of the best fantasy football sleepers in Week 14!

Nate Burleson vs. Minnesota Vikings
We took a stab at Burleson last week, and he had three catches for about 50 yards called back via offensive pass interference calls. That being said, his quarterback, Matt Stafford has been absolutely fantastic all season long, and with RB Kevin Smith still nursing that ankle injury, there doesn’t seem to be that much that the ground attack is going to do. Burleson has only found the end zone twice all year, but over these last four weeks, he has come up with seven, 12, four, and nine fantasy points. If you’re in a bind at wide receiver, this still is a good option to go to, especially in some deeper leagues or leagues which require that you use three wide receivers, or if you are looking for a decent flex play. Remember that the Vikes rank dead last in the league against opposing fantasy quarterbacks, and with all of the double and triple coverage being given to WR Calvin Johnson, Stafford has to be able to put the ball somewhere.

Santana Moss vs. New England Patriots
Moss was a middle round draft pick in most leagues this year, but he was probably dropped due to the fact that he was injured for over a month. That being said, he could probably be had on the waiver wires in most leagues, and he is going to make for a great start this week. Moss has been getting his targets over the course of the last two weeks, 13 of them to be exact, but they have only been parlayed into a total of six fantasy points. Last week, the Pats gave up just a slew of yards and points, especially late in the game against the Colts, and they have had a history of getting torched by opposing passing games. Wide receivers do more damage against the New England defense from a fantasy football perspective than any other defense in the league. Moss, in our eyes, is a must start that you can probably have for nothing via free agency.

Seattle Seahawks D/ST vs. St. Louis Rams
Last week, we made a huge mistake by recommending the Jaguars’ defense on Monday Night Football against the Chargers. This week, we vow to make amends. The Seahawks play better defense than they do offense, and this is as important of a game as they will play all season long against a terrible St. Louis team that just can’t get out of its own way. The Rams rank dead last in the league in scoring offense and in a number of offensive categories, and with the potential there for the weather to be iffy at CenturyLink Field, especially in front of that fantastic crowd that provides such a great home field advantage, Seattle makes for a great start. Over the last four week, the Seahawks have been good for 18, six, 20, and nine points, and they have been worth double digits five times this year.

Ricky Williams vs. Indianapolis Colts
Last week, we watched Williams get 13 fantasy points in his best day of the year against the Browns. It’s not like RB Ray Rice didn’t get his touches, as he rumbled for over 200 yards and a score. That being said, Williams also had 16 carries for 76 yards and a TD. Now comes an Indianapolis defense which can’t get out of its own way under most circumstances. Especially with this game at home, the possibility is there for a blowout, and just as we took a chance with RB Stevan Ridley last week with the Pats, we are confident that we can get double digits worth of points for the second straight week out of Williams after he didn’t do better than six in any game over the course of the first three months of the season.

St. Louis Rams vs. Seattle Seahawks NFL Prop Picks (12/12/11)

December 8th, 2011 by Adam Markowitz (Bankroll Sports Columnist) | Posted in NFL Football   Comments Off on St. Louis Rams vs. Seattle Seahawks NFL Prop Picks (12/12/11)
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Our NFL prop picks continue with our Monday Night Football picks and our St. Louis Rams vs. Seattle Seahawks prop picks. Be sure to check out our NFL prop picks for the big duel on Monday, courtesy of BetOnline Sportsbook.

Marshawn Lynch Over/Under 109.5 Rushing Yards
Enter: Beast Mode. Lynch defined the term “Beast Mode” last year when he ran right through the New Orleans Saints’ defense in the playoffs. Now, he has clearly kicked himself into some gear that hardly anyone has been able to stop. Lynch has found the end zone in eight straight games, and he has rumbled for at least 100 yards in three of his last four. Now, he’s going against a defense that is allowing over 150 yards per game on the ground and has been absolutely blistered by a number of the top running backs in the league. The saddest part is that the Rams haven’t played much of a schedule either, and now, their offense is probably not going to be spending all that much time on the field considering how brutal the quarterback situation has turned out to be. Lynch should come up near 30 carries as long as this one stays relatively close for at least three quarters. Marshawn Lynch Over 109.5 Rushing Yards (-115 at BetOnline Sportsbook)

Doug Baldwin Over/Under 3 Receptions
Baldwin was held down to just one catch for 21 yards in last week’s win over the Philadelphia Eagles, but he and QB Tarvaris Jackson have still built up a nice rapport. He has come up with at least three receptions in six of his last eight games, and in one of those games in which he didn’t end up getting to at least this number, he was knocked out with a concussion against the Baltimore Ravens. This is a bad defense all around that Baldwin is going to be going again, and we have to continue to stress the fact that Seattle is probably going to get a slew of chances with the football on this night. Baldwin should be the one that really capitalizes, especially with WR Sidney Rice out of the lineup. Doug Baldwin Over 3 Receptions (+105 at BetOnline Sportsbook).

James Laurinaitis Over/Under 7.5 Tackles
We don’t normally play on these props for tackles, because they are generally awfully random. However, in this case, we don’t really like the chances of Laurinaitis to reach this number. The former Ohio State Buckeye does have at least 10 tackles in three of his last six games, but he only has one other game in which he has more than 7.5 tackles on the season. Sure, Lynch is going to be running the ball right at him over and over again, but that doesn’t mean that Head Coach Pete Carroll isn’t very knowledgeable of the situation. Laurinaitis will have a decent game, but to ask him to come up with eight tackles is a heck of a lot of work to ask for out of a single linebacker. James Laurinaitis Under 7.5 Tackles (-115 at BetOnline Sportsbook).

Odds The Indianapolis Colts Go Winless 0-16 In 2011-12

December 3rd, 2011 by Adam Markowitz (Bankroll Sports Columnist) | Posted in NFL Football   Comments Off on Odds The Indianapolis Colts Go Winless 0-16 In 2011-12
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As of this posting (12/3), the Indianapolis Colts are 0-11 and are five steps away from pulling off the dubious distinction of an 0-16 season. We take a moment to look at the odds the Colts finish 0-16 this year. They are +160 to pull off the bad feat, and we are set to take a look at their chances.

Indianapolis went from having one of the best passing games in the league to one of the worst. The team is averaging just 181.0 yards per game passing this year, No. 28 in the game. A lot of the problem is that QB Curtis Painter just isn’t ready to play in the NFL. He is only completing 54.3 percent of his passes with six scores against nine picks. He replaced the ineffective QB Kerry Collins, who led the team to three losses in a row before being benched and eventually put on injured reserve. Now, the ball will be turned over to QB Dan Orlovsky.

The problem with Orlovsky is that he has already had his hand in an 0-16 team, doing so with the Detroit Lions last decade. That being said, the former Connecticut Husky probably has the best chance of leading this team to a victory.

However, if you look at the schedule over the course of the next two weeks, you see a road game at the New England Patriots and a road game against the Baltimore Ravens in back to back weeks. We already know that the Pats and their potent passing game are three touchdown favorites, and especially if Indy doesn’t figure out how to cover this spread this week, it will probably be a three TD dog again next week when the Ravens come to town.

To wrap up the season, the Tennessee Titans and Houston Texans pay a visit to Lucas Oil Field, and the Colts will finish up with a road game at the Jacksonville Jaguars.

Let’s look at a brief comparison between these Colts and the 2008 Lions. Orlovsky led a passing game that averaged 206 passing yards and 83.3 rushing yards per game. These Colts are basically on par with that, and they are actually scoring fewer points per game. Those Lions were averaging 16.8 points per game against the 13.6 points per game for these Colts. Defensively, Indy has the worst defense in the league at 29.7 points per game. Those Lions averaged 32.3 points per game allowed, a mark that the Colts still have plenty of time to catch up to.

There are two more factors that we have to take into consideration. The first is that Head Coach Jim Caldwell could become a lame duck coach. There are grumblings that an 0-16 season would see Caldwell get fired, which might become important for his team to put together their biggest efforts.

The second, of course, is whether the Colts try to get QB Peyton Manning back on the field or not at the end of this season. Manning has been cleared to start to practice once again, though he hasn’t made any notions that he is going to get back on the field at any point. That being said, if he does get back on the field, we will see just how important he is to this team, and he could possibly lead the squad to a victory or two.

2011 NFL Prop Picks – Week 13 Fantasy Football Sleepers

December 3rd, 2011 by Adam Markowitz (Bankroll Sports Columnist) | Posted in NFL Football   Comments Off on 2011 NFL Prop Picks – Week 13 Fantasy Football Sleepers
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Fantasy Football picks are here at Bankroll Sports this year, and we are going to try to make the most of your NFL props betting options at BoDog Sportsbook by giving you some of the best fantasy football sleepers in Week 13!

DeAngelo Williams vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Most who spent relatively high fantasy football draft picks on Williams have probably either cut him loose or have just forgotten about him. However, Carolina’s richest running back has had double digits worth of fantasy points in each of the last two weeks, and he is starting to at least get a few more carries than RB Jonathan Stewart. Either way, the Tampa Bay defense has had a miserable time going against some of the top running games in the league, as this unit ranks No. 31 in the league against rushers in terms of fantasy points. It’s always scary to see QB Cam Newton stealing touchdowns, but Williams has gotten a couple red zone looks of late, so we know that he at least has a shot of getting the job done.

Stevan Ridley vs. Indianapolis Colts
Ridley has only really had one good game this year, a 97-yard effort against the Oakland Raiders in Week 4. Since that point, he only has 21 carries for 46 yards without a sniff of the end zone. However, this game against the Colts is going to be an interesting one, as Head Coach Bill Belichick knows that this is going to be a great opportunity to use all of his running backs against a pitiful defense that ranks dead last in the league in a number of categories. Ridley may get some more looks, especially if RB Danny Woodhead and RB Shane Vereen can’t go, as both are injured.

Nate Burleson vs. New Orleans Saints
Odds have it, there is going to be a shootout in the Bayou on Sunday, and that means that QB Matt Stafford is going to have to put the ball in the air quite a bit to have any chance of sticking around with QB Drew Brees and the Saints. Burleson has had at least four catches in each of Detroit’s last four games, and he has emerged as a legitimate second receiver opposite of the great WR Calvin Johnson. Finding the end zone might be tough, as there is a lot of attention paid to both Johnson and TE Brandon Pettigrew when the Lions get in the red zone, but especially if you’re in a PPR league, Burleson makes for a great play, and he might be able to be had via free agency.

Jacksonville Jaguars D/ST vs. San Diego Chargers
The Jags are allowing just over 18 points per game this year, and you know that they are going to play a relatively short game with all of the running that RB Maurice Jones-Drew should be doing. That being said, the Chargers look like a lame team right now with a lame duck coach, and their offense just turns the ball over a ton. San Diego’s offense ranks No. 19 in the league for fantasy points against defensive, but a lot of the damage came at the start of the season when the team was 4-1. The Bolts haven’t won since that point, they have been devastatingly bad. That shouldn’t change on Monday with new Head Coach Mel Tucker in charge of the Jags.

Odds The Green Bay Packers Go Undefeated In 2012

December 3rd, 2011 by Adam Markowitz (Bankroll Sports Columnist) | Posted in NFL Football   Comments Off on Odds The Green Bay Packers Go Undefeated In 2012
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Can the Green Bay Packers really run the table this year? The Packers are now +145 to finish out the season with a 16-0 record, and they are +310 to finish out the season with a perfect 19-0 season, which would make them the first team in NFL history to win 19 games without defeat in the season.

However, if you’re going to get in on the Packers to run the table, you probably are going to want to invest this week. Green Bay is a 6.5 point favorite on the road against the New York Giants, but once that game is said and done with, there really aren’t any tremendous challenges left. The Packers have to play the Oakland Raiders at home, Kansas City Chiefs on the road, and then the two teams that are fighting for the Wild Card spots in the conference, the Chicago Bears and Detroit Lions at home. From there, it would be home games in the playoffs, where the Pack hardly ever lose.

If you’re going to beat Green Bay, you’re going to have to do so with your passing game, wihch is why we think that the Giants have a puncher’s chance. The Packers rank No. 31 in the league in pass defense at 287.8 yards per game and No. 30 in total defense at 393.4 yards per game. We’ve seen QB Philip Rivers nearly post a tremendous comeback in the fourth quarter against Green Bay, and if he can do it, so can the likes of QB Eli Manning and QB Matt Stafford.

However, it’s just ridiculously difficult to stop this offense. Green Bay has only been held under 35 points at home once this year, and that came in a game that was a blowout from start to finish against the St. Louis Rams. QB Aaron Rodgers has thrown three of his four picks this year at Lambeau Field, but he also hasn’t had a game in which he has thrown fewer than three TDs at home either. He also hasn’t had a game this year in which he has had a quarterback rating of less than 111. Considering the fact that no quarterback has ever had a rating that high for a full season, it’s amazing that he has done that in all 11 of his games.

Should the Packers win on Sunday, expect to see this prop come down to even money or so, if even that.