2014 AFC & NFC Championship Prop Odds, Picks

Championship weekend is here and while many are looking to figure out the sides and total, some of the better value is in player props. We’ll take a look at some prop bets that could present some value.

Free NFC Championship Picks
Green Bay at Seattle @ 3:05 pm EST
Game Line: Seattle -7.5 (-105) Total: 47

Total TD Passes – Aaron Rodgers (Green Bay)
Free NFC Championship Pick: Over 2.5 (+140)
Call me crazy, but I like Green Bay’s chances on Sunday. The question you have to ask yourself, how hurt is Rodgers? Let’s just forget about the first game of the season, this is a different Green Bay team and their offensive line is playing at an extremely high level. I think there is some value here, and Rodgers throwing more than 3 touchdowns with all the weapons he has is not out of the question.

Will James Starks (Green Bay) score a TD in the game?
Free NFC Championship Pick: Yes +575
A lot of value here as you have a backup running back that shows up in big games. I do think Starks can be a factor, especially as I think Green Bay will limit Eddie Lacy in the first half to save him for the second half. Starks is also a great receiving back, and is pretty versatile. This is some great value here.

Will Eddie Lacy (Green Bay) record 150 or more rushing yards?
Free NFC Championship Pick: Yes +2000
A long shot yes, but you might think Eddie Lacy is a little banged up, but he didn’t take a lot of hit last weekend. Does Seattle have a great defense? Without a doubt…but if there’s any running back that can match the physicality of the Seahawks’ defense, it’s Lacy. Tremendous value!

Russell Wilson (Seattle) – Total TD Passes
0: +300, 1: +175, 2: +220
Ok, there’s a variety of picks here, all positive EV wagers. I do believe Russell Wilson will throw a touchdown pass; it’s just a matter of how many. But each wager is showing some value.

Will Russell Wilson (Seattle) score a rushing TD in the Game?
Free NFC Championship Prop Pick: Yes – +250
Again, another wager with a ton of value. Wilson has 6 rushing touchdowns this season, and there’s no question that he’ll be a threat to take one to the house on Sunday.

Free AFC Championship Prop Picks
Indianapolis at New England @ 6:40 pm EST
Game Line: New England -7 (-105) Total: 54

Andrew Luck (Indianapolis) – Total Rushing yards
Free AFC Championship Picks: Over 17.5 yards (-125)
Yeah there’s some juice here, but I like this play. Luck is very athletic, and can extend the play…New England has an outstanding secondary, and I think there will be more than a few times where Luck will get loose and run for some extra yards. I think this is a real solid wager.

Will Andrew Luck (Indianapolis) score a rushing touchdown in the game?
AFC Championship Prop Pick: Yes +300
Again, this goes back to my last prop, I think there’s some value here…and I think it’s worth a look as Luck can get to the end zone using his legs.

Will Reggie Wayne (Indianapolis) score a TD in the game?
AFC Championship Prop Pick: Yes +250
Is it me or does it seem that Reggie Wayne seem like the forgotten guy in Indianapolis? Wayne has a ton of big game experience, and with so much focus on T.Y. Hilton and newcomer Donte Moncrief, Wayne could definitely get open for a score here. Should Indy find themselves down early, I think the chances of Wayne finding the end zone are pretty good.

Will Brandon LaFell (New England) score a touchdown in the game?
AFC Championship Prop Pick: Yes +140
Well, seeing with what happened last weekend, Brandon LaFell certainly isn’t afraid to come up in big spots. LaFell caught the game winning touchdown, and has become one of Tom Brady’s favorite targets. Solid value here.

Total Tackles and assists Jamie Collins (New England)
AFC Championship Prop Pick: Over 8.5 -105
Collins is a force, and in last years playoff game against Indianapolis he was a factor. Collins has the speed and is great in coverage. I expect the young linebacker to be very active in Sunday’s game.