Posts Tagged ‘Week 4 picks’

NFL Football Picks: Monday Night Football Props (10/4/10)

October 3rd, 2010 by Adam Markowitz (Bankroll Sports Columnist) | Posted in General Handicapping   Comments Off on NFL Football Picks: Monday Night Football Props (10/4/10)
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If you’re a fan of good old fashioned hard hitting football between two teams that just don’t like each other, this is the game for you! The Miami Dolphins and New England Patriots are sure to put on a real show on MNF this week, as they meet at Sun Life Stadium in a game that is absolutely crucial for both teams involved. Check out some of the NFL props for the game that we are keying in on to try to make you some great cash on the action!

Will there be a score in the first 6 1/2 minutes of the game?
Normally speaking, this prop would be set at 7:30, not 6:30, but due to the fact that this is the highest NFL betting ‘total’ on the board in Week 4, the number has come down just a tad. It won’t matter. The Dolphins now know that they can stretch the field quite a bit on the Pats, who seem to be relatively helpless defensive right now. With WR Brandon Marshall being used as an inviting target, big plays are very, very possible. We already know that the Brady Bunch has the top scoring offense in the game at 30.0 points per game, as QB Tom Brady and WR Randy Moss can hook up for a TD pass from anywhere on the field. Yes, there absolutely will be a score in the first 6:30 (-120 at Hollywood Sportsbook) on Monday Night Football.

Ronnie Brown Over/Under 65.5 Rushing Yards
Something is wrong with RB Ricky Williams right now. He doesn’t have a single carry this year for more than eight yards, and the end result might be more weight put onto the shoulders of RB Ronnie Brown. Brown is averaging well more than two yards per carry more than Williams is this year, and the defense on the other side of the field isn’t exactly known for its ability to stop the run, especially if you can bounce the ball outside and away from DT Vince Wilfork. Remember the MNF game last year when the Fins absolutely dominated time of possession against the Indianapolis Colts to try to keep QB Peyton Manning off the field? HC Tony Sparano knows that that would be a fantastic game plan to use on Monday night. Go with Brown Over 65.5 rushing yards (-115 at Hollywood Sportsbook).

Randy Moss Total Receptions Over/Under 4.5
Normally, it seems like a bit of a slam dunk for Moss to go ‘over’ this type of a number, but perhaps that shouldn’t be considered the case anymore. He only has nine total receptions on the season, and that’s due to the emergence of men like WR Julian Edelman, TE Rob Gronkowski, and TE Aaron Hernandez. Plus, age really isn’t helping Moss out any, as he is spending more and more plays on the sidelines when he isn’t being utilized. The Dolphins know that Moss is still a lethal deep threat though, and he is going to be a force to be reckoned with. Will Moss get his big play or two over the course of the game? Probably. However, especially if Miami does a great job of protecting the football, we have a hard time figuring how he is going to be getting to five receptions on the day unless he is really force fed the ball. That’s not a necessity for Brady and the offense anymore at this point in Moss’ career. Go with good ol’ Randy Under 4.5 Receptions (-120 at Hollywood Sportsbook) in this battle against the Dolphins.

2010 NFL Trends: Week 4 Cheat Sheet

October 1st, 2010 by Adam Markowitz (Bankroll Sports Columnist) | Posted in NFL Football   Comments Off on 2010 NFL Trends: Week 4 Cheat Sheet
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Week 4 of the NFL season is right around the corner! The handicapping experts of Bankroll Sports have key releases for you this weekend. Props and free picks will be available to you on our sports blog as well. However, to kick off this NFL betting week, we’re going to take a look at the most important NFL trends and matchup histories for the Week 4 NFL matchups.

Sunday, October 3rd, 1:00 ET: Detroit Lions @ Green Bay Packers
NFL Trends of Note
The Packers are just 9-2-1 ATS in their L/12 overall
Detroit is 1-6-1 ATS in its L/8 in division
The Lions are 2-6-2 ATS in their L/10 roadies

Series History
Green Bay has simply dominated this series, winning every game dating back to the first clash in 2005, a stretch of nine straight overall. In that run, Detroit has only covered two spreads, with the most recent cover coming at Lambeau Field in December 2008. The Pack have averaged 35.0 PPG over their L/6 with Detroit and haven’t scored less than 26 points in a game in that stretch.

Sunday, October 3rd, 1:00 PM ET: Carolina Panthers @ New Orleans Saints
NFL Trends of Note
Carolina is 7-1 ATS in its L/8 against teams with a winning record
The Saints are 2-7 ATS in their L/9 as favorites
New Orleans is 2-6 ATS in its L/8 played on field turf

Series History
Carolina has actually won all but two of the L/9 meetings dating back to 2005. Last season’s was a Panthers ATS sweep, as there was no issue knocking off either NFL spread over the course of the year. Carolina has four straight ATS under its belt against the Saints and is 7-2 ATS over the L/9 ATS as well as SU. The L/2 meetings went ‘under’ the ‘total’, while five of the L/6 have failed to reach the number.

Sunday, October 3rd, 1:00 PM ET: Denver Broncos @ Tennessee Titans
NFL Trends of Note
Denver has covered three straight against the Titans overall
Tennessee is 2-10 ATS in its L/12 years in Week 4
The Titans are 10-4 ATS in their L/14 against teams with losing records

Series History
As we’ve already said, it’s been awhile since Tennessee has come up with a ‘W’ in this series. You have to go back to 1995 to find the last regular season triumph. However, Denver hasn’t visited the Music City since 2004. It walked out a winner that day to the tune of 37-16. The Broncos have at least 34 on the board in each of their L/3 meetings with Tennessee, while the Titans have scored 20, 10, and 16 respectively in those three duels.

Sunday, October 3rd, 1:00 PM ET: Cincinnati Bengals @ Cleveland Browns
NFL Trends of Note
The Bengals are 1-13 ATS in their L/14 years in Week 4
Cincinnati is 3-8 ATS in its L/11 overall
The Browns are 8-1 ATS in their L/9 games played in October

Series History
These two teams simply don’t like each other a whole bunch. The Bengals might have won both games last year SU, but the Browns won the ATS war in each clash. The underdog has covered six straight overall. Four of the L/5 have stayed ‘under’ the number, while the ‘under’ is 8-3 in the L/11 meetings in the Dawg Pound. The Browns haven’t won a game here against Cincinnati since 2007 in that wild 51-45 game in which QB Derek Anderson threw five TD passes and RB Jamal Lewis rushed for 216 yards.

Sunday, October 3rd, 1:00 PM ET: San Francisco 49ers @ Atlanta Falcons
NFL Trends of Note
The Niners are 1-7-1 ATS in their L/9 played in October
San Fran is 9-3-2 ATS in its L/14 against teams with a winning record
Atlanta is 7-2 ATS in its L/9 home games

Series History
Last year, Atlanta marched into AT&T Park and absolutely crippled the 49ers 45-10 as short underdogs. All of a sudden, San Fran badly needs to make amends for that. However, the Niners haven’t won a game in this series since these two teams were in the NFC West together, a stretch of three straight dating back to 2001. San Francisco also hasn’t scored more than 19 points in a game in this series since then. The Falcons are 5-3 ATS over the L/8 meetings.

Sunday, October 3rd, 1:00 PM ET: Seattle Seahawks @ St. Louis Rams
NFL Trends of Note
Seattle is 1-9 ATS in its L/10 on the road
St. Louis is 7-22 ATS in its L/29 against the NFC West
The Rams are 7-17 ATS in their L/24 against teams with a winning record

Series History
It’s been Seattle, Seattle, and more Seattle since 2005 in this series, as the Seahawks haven’t lost a game to the Rams in that stretch. Several of these games were absolute beat downs as well, as five of the L/9 have been decided by at least ten points. The Seahawks have covered six straight in this series and eight out of ten overall. Seattle has put at least 23 on the board in all ten clashes.

Sunday, October 3rd, 1:00 PM ET: Baltimore Ravens @ Pittsburgh Steelers
NFL Trends of Note
The Ravens are 7-2-1 ATS in their L/10 as underdogs of a field goal or less
Baltimore is 22-10-1 ATS in its L/33 played on grass
The Steelers are 35-17-2 ATS in their L/54 games played in October

Series History
Even though you’d tend to believe that both of these teams are prone to ‘under’ games, it has been the ‘over’ that has cashed quite a bit. In fact, ‘over’ bettors are a whopping 6-1-1 in the L/8 meetings of these arch rivals. The home team has won six of the L/7, but Baltimore has been the one losing host and is just 2-5 in those seven. The Steelers are 3-0-1 ATS over their L/4 clashes, including already nearly winning one game with QB Dennis Dixon under center last year in Baltimore.

Sunday, October 3rd, 1:00 PM ET: New York Jets @ Buffalo Bills
NFL Trends of Note
The Jets are 2-10 ATS in their L/12 played in October
New York is 7-2 ATS in its L/9 against the AFC
Buffalo is 3-11 ATS in its L/14 home games

Series History
The underdog is a whopping 20-8 ATS over the L/28 meetings of these two AFC East rivals. An eight game winning streak for the pup ATS in this series came to a close last December when the Jets walked out of Ralph Wilson Stadium with a 19-13 win. The road team has won six of the L/8, with each team winning one road game. Both meetings last year stayed well ‘under’ the ‘total’, and there has only been one ‘over’ since 2006 (4-1-1).

Sunday, October 3rd, 4:05 PM ET: Indianapolis Colts @ Jacksonville Jaguars
NFL Trends of Note
The Colts are 10-2 ATS in their L/12 played in October
Jacksonville is 7-25 ATS in its L/32 played on grass
The Jags are 4-14 ATS in their L/18 played at home

Series History
Indianapolis has always had some problems with the Jags, but over the L/5 years, this series has been cut fairly down the middle. The team split the SU and ATS proceedings in each of the L/4 years even though the Colts have only lost twice in that stretch. The Colts haven’t lost in Jacksonville since December 2006, including last year’s 35-31 victory, which marked the third straight trip here with at least 29 points scored.

Sunday, October 3rd, 4:05 PM ET: Houston Texans @ Oakland Raiders
NFL Trends of Note
Houston is 7-1 ATS in its L/8 years in Week 4
The Texans are 4-1 ATS in five meetings against the Raiders
Oakland is just 17-39-1 ATS in its L/57 home games

Series History
Last year, the Texans trounced the Raiders 29-6 at home to dominate the nine point spread. It was the first time in which a favorite even won a game SU in this series, let alone ATS, and if you would like, you can even include the one preseason matchup of these teams in there as well from 2005. Historically, this series is a very low scoring one, as no game has featured more than 47 points, while the L/2 have easily stayed ‘under’ the number.

Sunday, October 3rd, 4:15 PM ET: Arizona Cardinals @ San Diego Chargers
NFL Trends of Note
The Cards have won seven straight ATS in October
Arizona is 10-2 ATS in its L/12 as an underdog
The Bolts have covered five straight following an ATS defeat

Series History
There aren’t many regular season meetings between these two teams since the start of the 2000s in spite of the fact that it feels like they meet every year in the preseason. San Diego won 27-20 on New Year’s Eve 2006, but the Cards covered the 14 point NFL odds that day. In 2002, the Bolts won 23-15 in Tucson, while in 2001, Arizona trumped the Chargers here at Qualcomm Stadium 20-17 in a very similar looking game to the one that will be played on Sunday.

Sunday, October 3rd, 4:15 PM ET: Washington Redskins @ Philadelphia Eagles
NFL Trends of Note
The Skins are 4-1-3 ATS in their L/8 played on grass
Washington is 4-10-1 ATS in its L/15 played in October
The Eagles are 4-1 ATS in their L/5 in October

Series History
For whatever reason, Washington has seemed to have the Eagles’ number in spite of the fact that it has largely stunk in that stretch. The Eagles did win both games last year but only went 1-1 ATS with the ‘Skins covering here in the City of Brotherly Love. In fact, the last time that Philly covered a home game against Washington was back in 2006, a 27-3 victory. Since that point, the Redskins are 2-1 SU and 3-0 ATS.

Sunday, October 3rd, 8:20 PM ET: Chicago Bears @ New York Giants
NFL Trends of Note
Chicago is 3-8 ATS in its L/11 road games
New York is 1-8 ATS in its L/9 against teams with a winning road record
The road team is 8-0 both SU and ATS in this series dating back to 1992

Series History
And if that isn’t a golden trend for Bears bettors, we don’t know what is! Chicago hasn’t lost a game in the Meadowlands since the 1980s and has won all of its meetings in the 1990s and 2000s by at least seven points. All four duels in the 1990s played past the ‘total’, but since that point, ‘under’ bettors are 3-2 and none of the three ‘unders’ got anywhere near the ‘total’.

Monday, September 27th, 8:30 PM ET: New England Patriots @ Miami Dolphins
NFL Trends of Note
New England is just 2-6 ATS in its L/8 against the AFC East
The Dolphins are 8-2 ATS in their L/10 in division
Miami is 6-2 ATS in its L/8 played in October

Series History
Miami beat the Pats at home last year 22-21 for its fourth cover in the L/5 games in this series. Big time spreads are nothing new in this rivalry either, as the Dolphins have been double digit dogs four times just since 2007, including being a 22 point dog in Gillette Stadium in ’07. Both clashes last year stayed ‘under’ the ‘total’, which bucked the trend of three out of four ‘overs’ over the previous two years.

2010 NCAA Football Trends: Week 4 Cheat Sheet

September 22nd, 2010 by Adam Markowitz (Bankroll Sports Columnist) | Posted in College Football   Comments Off on 2010 NCAA Football Trends: Week 4 Cheat Sheet
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Week 4 college football betting is here! Bankroll Sports is back with more NCAA football picks for Week 4 of the year, but before we do that, we need to take a look at the important trends and history that the teams that are facing against each other this week.

Thursday, September 23rd: Miami Hurricanes @ Pittsburgh Panthers
NCAA Football Trends of Note
-The Canes are 3-13 ATS in their L/16 off of a bye week
-U-Pitt is 12-6 ATS in its L/16 games on grass
-The Panthers are 7-3 ATS in their L/10 at home

Series History
The Canes have won every meeting of these teams dating back to 1998, but this is the first time the squads have met outside of Big East play. Miami won 28-14 the last time it travel to Pitt, but the time before, it was a 27.5 point favorite. My, how times have changed now that the Canes are just short four point choices of the oddsmakers in a game that many think could go either way.

Friday, September 24th: TCU Horned Frogs @ SMU Mustangs
NCAA Football Trends of Note
-The Horned Frogs are 4-10 ATS in their L/14 against C-USA
-TCU is 5-1 ATS in its L/6 on the road
-SMU is 18-7-1 ATS in its L/26 against teams with a winning record

Series History
These two teams have met in each of the L/3 seasons, and though it looks like it would be a runaway for the 3-0 Horned Frogs, who have won the three games by an aggregate score of 108-28, that just isn’t the case. SMU holds a 2-1 ATS edge and is 5-2 ATS over the L/7 meetings against one of the mid-major powers of the country.

Saturday, September 25th: Virginia Tech Hokies @ Boston College Eagles
NCAA Football Trends of Note
-The Hokies are 6-2 ATS in their L/8 overall
-V-Tech is 22-9 ATS in its L/31 roadies
-BC is just 2-14 ATS in its L/16 against teams with a losing record, including an 0-2 mark this year

Series History
These two former Big East teams have met five times over the L/3 years, including twice in the ACC Championship Game. V-Tech is 3-2 SU and ATS. The favorite has won and covered four straight, and no road team has won in this series since 2003, save for BC winning in Blacksburg is 2007. The last time the Hokies won on Chestnut Hill came in 2002 as an 8.5 point favorite.

Saturday, September 25th: NC State Wolfpack @ Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets
NCAA Football Trends of Note
-NC State is 5-0-1 ATS in its L/6 played in September
-The Wolfpack are 11-5 ATS in their L/16 in the ACC
-G-Tech is 7-1 ATS in its L/8 played in conference

Series History
Surprisingly, it has been the road team that has dominated this series of late, winning three straight and four out of five. The Ramblin’ Wreck are 5-1 SU in their L/6 against NC State and 4-1 ATS in their L/5 in this series as well. This is the first meeting of these ACC foes since 2006.

Saturday, September 25th: Stanford Cardinal @ Notre Dame Fighting Irish
NCAA Football Trends of Note
-The Cardinal are just 2-9 ATS in their L/11 against independent teams
-Notre Dame is 0-5 ATS in its L/5 following an ATS win
-The Irish are only 17-35 ATS in their L/52 under the watchful eyes of Touchdown Jesus

Series History
These annual rivals really hate each other, and for good reason. Stanford beat Notre Dame for the first time since 2002 last year, but the Irish are still dominating the NCAA football odds in this series. They have covered three straight and seven out of nine dating back to last the 2001 campaign.

Saturday, September 25th: Temple Owls @ Penn State Nittany Lions
NCAA Football Trends of Note
-The Owls are 11-5 ATS in their L/16 overall
-Penn State is 7-3 ATS in its L/10 against the MAC, including one cover already this season
-The Nittany Lions are 6-2 ATS in their L/8 against Temple

Series History
Needless to say, this is Temple’s best chance to win a game in this series a quite some time. These teams have met quite a bit since 1992, ten times to be exact, and this is the first time the Owls haven’t been dogs by at least 25 points. PSU didn’t cover last year in a 31-6 victory, but it hasn’t won a game by less than that 25 point margin in this series since 2003. Over the L/4 meetings, the Owls have scored a grand total of nine points and haven’t found the end zone more than once in a game against the Nittany Lions since 1995. They lost that game 66-14.

Saturday, September 25th: Alabama Crimson Tide @ Arkansas Razorbacks
NCAA Football Trends of Note
-The Tide are 9-2 ATS in their L/11 road games
-Arkansas is 6-2 ATS against teams with a winning record
-The Hogs are just 1-3 ATS in the L/4 meetings with Alabama

Series History
These two teams hate each other, as they meet every single September in the first month of SEC action. Arkansas hasn’t beaten Alabama since 2006, but the Tide have real reasons to be worried. They won in Fayetteville 49-14 in 2008, but before that, they had won here since 2002. Bama rolled to a 35-7 win last year in Tuscaloosa.

Saturday, September 25th: Wake Forest Demon Deacons @ Florida State Seminoles
NCAA Football Trends of Note
-The Deacs are 2-7 ATS in their L/9 road games
-Wake Forest is 8-3 ATS in its L/11 against teams with a winning record
-FSU is 2-6 ATS in its L/8 conference games

Series History
You think these two teams don’t like each other much? FSU certainly remembers that Wake Forest has won its last two trips to Tallahassee in a big way, winning 12-3 in ’08 and 30-0 in ’06. The Noles got a level of revenge last year, winning 41-28 on Tobacco Road, but for the dominant side in the ACC< that was their first win in this series dating back to 2005. The underdog has now covered six straight and has won four in a row outright.Saturday, September 25th: Kentucky Wildcats @ Florida Gators
NCAA Football Trends of Note
-The Gators are 22-6 ATS in their L/28 against teams with a winning record
-UF is 18-7 ATS in its L/25 overall
-The Wildcats are 0-3 ATS since 2007 in this series, but covered five straight before that

Series History
Don’t expect the Wildcats to be able to win this one, though. The Cats have been dominated in this series SU, as they haven’t beaten Florida in seemingly forever. UF has opened up a real can on UK over the L/2 seasons, winning be the aggregate score of 104-12.

Saturday, September 25th: South Carolina Gamecocks @ Auburn Tigers
NCAA Football Trends of Note
-The Gamecocks are 1-4 ATS in their L/5 on the road against teams with a winning home record
-Auburn is 4-10 ATS in its L/14 following an ATS defeat
-The Tigers are 1-4 ATS in their L/5 at Jordan Hare Stadium

Series History
The SEC undercard battle this week is a goodie even though these two teams have only met four times in their history. The Tigers are a perfect 4-0 SU and have now been favored in all five games since 1996. South Carolina has leveled the ATS proceeding at two games apiece with each team going 1-1 ATS at home and on the road.

Saturday, September 25th: Oregon State Beavers @ Boise State Broncos
NCAA Football Trends of Note
-The Beavers are 10-1 ATS in their L/11 road games
-OSU is 8-3 ATS in its L/11 overall
-Boise State is 44-20-2 ATS in its L/66 on the Smurf Turf

Series History
The home team has won five of the six meetings of these teams both SU and ATS. However, there have only been four clashes of these rivals since the Broncos really hit the mainstream, and the hosts won all four games. Boise State holds a 3-0-1 ATS edge though in the L/4.

Saturday, September 25th: West Virginia Mountaineers @ LSU Tigers
NCAA Football Trends of Note
-The Mountaineers have covered four straight against teams with a winning record
-WVU is 1-5 ATS in its L/6 games played on grass
-The Tigers are 4-11 ATS in their L/15 at Tiger Stadium

Series History
First meeting

Saturday, September 25th: California Golden Bears @ Arizona Wildcats
NCAA Football Trends of Note
-Cal is 6-14 ATS in its L/20 road games
-The Golden Bears are 7-2 ATS in their L/9 played on grass
-Arizona is 7-2 ATS in its L/9 played on grass

Series History
The home team has won five straight both SU and ATS in this series, with the most recent road victory coming by Cal in 2004 to the tune of 38-0 (however, it was a 23 point favorite that day). The Cats clawed as hard as they could last year, but they came up on the short end of a 24-16 decision as a 2.5 point pup.

Saturday, September 25th: Oregon Ducks @ Arizona State Sun Devils
NCAA Football Trends of Note
-The Ducks are 8-2 ATS in their L/10 overall
-Oregon is 8-3 ATS in its L/11 conference games
-The Ducks are 5-0 ATS over the L/5 years in this series

Series History
Needless to say, it has been all one way traffic for the Quack Attack. Oregon has dropped at least 35 points on ASU in five straight years, winning all five games outright as well as ATS. The last time ASU won a game at home in this series was in 2003 when it came away with a 59-14 whooping of the U of O.