Posts Tagged ‘Week 14 picks’

NFL Picks: San Francisco 49ers @ San Diego Chargers Props 12/16

December 15th, 2010 by Adam Markowitz (Bankroll Sports Columnist) | Posted in NFL Football   Comments Off on NFL Picks: San Francisco 49ers @ San Diego Chargers Props 12/16

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Both the San Diego Chargers and San Francisco 49ers were able to save their respective seasons last week, but they are both still clearly on life support and need some major help to be able to get through to the playoffs. Losing this one is not an option for either team, as one will have one foot in the grave and the other on the banana peel when this one is over with. Ready for your NFL picks for props in this one? Check out the best San Francisco 49ers vs. San Diego Chargers picks we have for Thursday Night Football!

Longest Field Goal Over/Under 44.5 Yards
Since coming over from the Pittsburgh Steelers, K Jeff Reed has done a nice job with the Niners, going 7-for-7 on field goals attempts. Though he has yet to boot one over 44 yards , he does have a pair of 50+ yarders to his credit as well, and you know if you can kick it 50+ yards in Heinz Field, you can kick it 60+ anywhere else. K Nate Kaeding is back as well for the Chargers, and that’s good news for those of us that are big time fans of booting the ball a long, long way. Since coming back, Kaeding has only missed twice on ten attempts, and one of those was from 56 yards out. Kaeding is the more likely of these two kickers to nail a long field goal, and especially in a game in which defense could be the theme, especially down tight, we tend to believe that there will be a field goal made Over 44.5 Yards (-110 at Hollywood Sportsbook) long on Thursday Night Football.

Alex Smith Over/Under 220.5 Passing Yards
We just knew that the oddsmakers were going to come out and put a bad number like this one on the board in this spot. Smith really looked like a totally different quarterback when he came back to the fold on Sunday, as he threw for 255 yards and three TDs. What we have to remember is that that came in a big time win as well. The rushing game just isn’t good enough to be able to carry the load without RB Frank Gore in the fold, and the end result is going to require Smith to throw more passes to get the job done. This might be one of the best secondaries statistically in football, but we’re tending to want to throw those out when analyzing this one. The weapons are there on this San Fran team to make some real noise, and if that’s the case, especially if it is playing from behind most of, or the entire way, Smith should have no problems going Over 220.5 Passing Yards (-115 at Hollywood Sportsbook).

Vernon Davis Over/Under 57.5 Receiving Yards
This is the same type of logic that we are going to use with Davis as we did with Smith just a moment ago. The big time tight end had a great game last week, catching five passes for 70 yards and a TD. In the games that Smith has both started and finished, Davis has gotten to at least 70 yards through the air five times in nine tries. That’s a heck of a percentage from our standpoint, as we know that we are going to make a ton of money over the long haul at that type of percentage. Normally, we hate playing props like this one against teams with tremendous linebacking cores, but there really might not be much other choice for Smith but to work the ball to his tight end, especially if the corners take the deep game away from WR Michael Crabtree. It might not be the prettiest prop in the world, but Davis should go Over 57.5 Receiving Yards (-115 at Hollywood Sportsbook) against the Chargers.

Philip Rivers Over/Under 1.5 Touchdown Passes
You have to be a believer in the fact that the 49ers have a secondary that is better than their stats suggest in this one. Rivers has thrown at least two TD passes in all but four of his games this year, but he would need to keep up at a rate like this all season long to be able to beat this prop this often. We’re not so sure that he can do it, especially knowing that this is a fight for San Fran’s life as well. Though we know that more often than not, especially at home, the San Diego signal caller is going to find the end zone at least twice on the day, he has only thrown three scores in total in his L/3 overall. Are things decaying? It’s quite possible. Don’t be shocked if Rivers stays Under 1.5 TD Passes (+180 at Hollywood Sportsbook) and gives us a huge cash.

NFL Football Picks: Thursday Night Football Props (12/9/10)

December 9th, 2010 by Adam Markowitz (Bankroll Sports Columnist) | Posted in NFL Football   Comments Off on NFL Football Picks: Thursday Night Football Props (12/9/10)
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The Indianapolis Colts might be on life support. The Tennessee Titans certainly are. These two teams are going to have to fight tooth and nail on Thursday Night Football to be able to save their seasons, as one will be able to make up some ground on the Jacksonville Jaguars, while the other is probably going to be in a boatload of trouble, if not eliminated from playoff contention.

Peyton Manning Over/Under 28.5 Completions
We know that Manning is going to have to throw the ball a whole boatload of times to be able to beat the Titans, and it does make a ton of sense for him to have to complete upwards of 30 passes against a team that doesn’t have the greatest secondary in the world. However, Head Coach Jim Caldwell has to be able to run the ball against a defensive line that loves to get after the quarterback on a regular basis, just to slow it down. It doesn’t seem all that likely that we’re going to see No. 18 complete 29 or more passes, in spite of the fact that he is averaging over 29 per game. We think that this is a case of the oddsmakers overreacting upon the number of times that Manning had to put the ball in the air last week against the Cincinnati Bengals. This week, he’ll put up tamer numbers. Manning will stay Under 28.5 Completions (-105 at Hollywood Sportsbook) on Thursday Night Football.

Will the Colts Score a Rushing Touchdown Against the Titans?
They might have to. We hate betting on props like this because the oddsmakers are constantly trying to hook us in with the “yes” bet. However, we realize that Indy is probably scoring three TDs in this game at bare minimum, and there have already been ten rushing scores on the season against 24 passing TDs. That’s a bit over a 3-1 ratio, meaning for every rushing TD, there are 2.4 passing TDs by Manning. RB Javarris James has reached pay dirt five times this season on the ground, and if Indy gets close to the end zone, he’ll be called upon to get the job done and finish things off. Again, we have to remember that this is a Tennessee team that isn’t built on the inside the same way that the Dallas Cowboys and other teams that the Colts have faced are. Indy Will Score a Rushing Touchdown (-130 at Hollywood Sportsbook).

Blair White Over/Under 34.5 Receiving Yards
The more we see White in the lineup, the more that we like. White is consistently another one of these guys that Manning has that just runs great routes, finds ways to get to where he needs to be, and has pretty good hands. With features like that, Manning can make you a Pro Bowler in a heartbeat. White has been called upon for at least four receptions in three straight games, and though we think that Manning is going to have to do some more running of the football to get the job done in this one, White could still get his looks, particularly if he is lined up in the slot. This could be a really nice spot against a secondary that doesn’t go particularly deep to take advantage of the situation. White should go Over 34.5 Receiving Yards (-115 at Hollywood Sportsbook) against the Titans.

Chris Johnson Over/Under 107.5 Rushing Yards
Alright CJ, now is your time! After a pair of lousy weeks, we know that Johnson is chomping at the bit, particularly in a nationally televised game, to be able to get going once again, and he knows that the Colts are the perfect matchup for him to do so. Johnson should be able to slow down the Indianapolis offense, as the Colts allowed 100 yards on the ground to RB Tashard Choice, a man that hadn’t touched the ball but a handful of times on the season coming in. Now, Johnson is all revved up after a couple of lousy games. If he can’t figure out how to get going in this one, the Titans are going to be dead in the water, especially with QB Kerry Collins calling the shots under center. Historically, this is one of the worst rush defenses in the NFL that Johnson is going again, and for that reason alone, he busts his streak and goes Over 107.5 Rushing Yards (-115 at Hollywood Sportsbook).