Posts Tagged ‘Super Bowl trends’

Super Bowl Betting History: Historical Super Bowl Spreads & Lines

January 20th, 2013 by Adam Markowitz (Bankroll Sports Columnist) | Posted in NFL Football   Comments Off on Super Bowl Betting History: Historical Super Bowl Spreads & Lines
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49ers vs. RavensIn order to make the most successful Super Bowl picks this year when the Baltimore Ravens meet the San Francisco 49ers, we really have to look at the past and pick out some of the best Super Bowl trends that are on the board. Here’s a glance at all of the Super Bowls in the past and some of the most notable things that we can point out heading into the biggest duel of the season.

Note: Teams highlighted in green were Super Bowl favorites

Super Bowl Scores

The first thing that we notice right away is that there are a ton of favorites on the Super Bowl odds that have taken down the biggest game of the year outright. Favorites are 33-13 SU over the course of the 46 Super Bowls coming into this season. There are seven Super Bowls in which the favorite has won the game outright, but has failed to cover the number, three of which have ended in a push. Half of the last six favorites that won the Super Bowl didn’t beat the Super Bowl betting lines, something that didn’t happen once for the first nine championship games. Interestingly enough though, the team that has been favored in the Super Bowl has lost three of the last five games outright, as well as from an ATS standpoint. Underdogs are 4-1 ATS in the last five Super Bowls.

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The Ravens and the 49ers have played in six combined Super Bowls, and they are a flat out awesome 6-0 SU in those games. The Ravens have only been in one Super Bowl in franchise history, beating the New York Giants in 2000. The 49ers have five Super Bowls to their credit, and they are going to be in the big one for the first time since way back in 1994. There is only one team in the history of the NFL that has a spotless Super Bowl record to this point that has been in the game more than one time, and that’s San Francisco. Regardless of whether it is San Fran or Baltimore that wins this game, the winner will take that distinction over of being the only undefeated team with more than one appearance in the Super Bowl. The 49ers have played in five Super Bowls, winning all five, going 4-1 ATS in those games. The only failed attempt at a cover came in 1989 against the Cincinnati Bengals.

Baltimore’s Super Bowl against the Giants exceeded the ‘total’ easily. San Fran is 3-2 for ‘over’ bettors. If history holds for the 49ers, this should be a very high scoring game. In their five Super Bowl appearances, the 49ers have averaged outscoring their foes by the whopping score of 37.6-17.8, for an average of 55.4 points per game.

Since the Ravens moved from Cleveland, there hasn’t been a heck of a lot of history for these two teams against each other. The clubs have met just four times, with the 49ers going only 1-3 in those games. The teams have split the ATS proceedings. The most recent clash was last year on Thanksgiving Day night, a 16-6 win for John over Jim in the first ever Harbaugh Bowl, pitting the two brothers against one another. The 49ers have only scored 19 total points in three games against the Ravens since 2003, though only two of the four games have stayed beneath the ‘total’ that these two teams have ever played against each other.

Super Bowl Trends: Harbowl Ravens vs. 49ers Predictions, History

January 20th, 2013 by Adam Markowitz (Bankroll Sports Columnist) | Posted in NFL Football   Comments Off on Super Bowl Trends: Harbowl Ravens vs. 49ers Predictions, History
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Harbowl Super BowlTrying to beat the Super Bowl odds is never something that is easy to do, and that’s why there are a lot of amateurs that struggling with the Super Bowl lines every year. However, history could be very important in this duel between the San Francisco 49ers and the Baltimore Ravens, and we are going to take the time to show you the most important Super Bowl betting trends for the game. Join us, as we analyze the “Harbowl” this year, as Jim Harbaugh and John Harbaugh square off against each other on the Super Bowl betting lines in the biggest game of the entire season.

Ravens vs. 49ers All-Time Series
2011: Ravens 16 – 49ers 6
2007: Ravens 9 – 49ers 7
2003: Ravens 44 – 49ers 6
1996: 49ers 38 – Ravens 20

There isn’t all that much history here between the 49ers and the Ravens, but the history that is there is rich with defensive showdowns. In the first ever “Harbowl” between San Fran’s Jim and Baltimore’s John, the Ravens got the best of the Niners on Thanksgiving Day in 2011. That was a game that was played between the 20s for the most part, and neither team that all that many chances to get points on the board. Even when they did have chances to score, there were a lot of field goals, and not a lot of chances at full touchdowns. The 49ers now have just a total of 19 points in their last three meetings with LB Ray Lewis and this remarkable Baltimore defense, which has stayed consistently remarkable over the course of the last several seasons.

History though, doesn’t really suggest that one of these teams has the extreme advantage over the other. Yes, Baltimore owns the 3-1 SU advantage in this series, but it has historically been a heck of a lot better than these 49ers have been. San Francisco, as a result, is 2-2 ATS in those games. Even the ‘total’ is split right down the line with two ‘overs’ and two ‘unders’ in spite of the fact that the 49ers have only scored more than seven points once in this series all-time, and that was back in 1996.

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Of late though, both of these teams have been understandably hot. They are a combined 5-0 SU and ATS here in the playoffs between them. The 49ers have been playing great ball of late. They have gone 7-2 SU and 6-3 ATS over the course of the nine games that QB Colin Kaepernick has started this year, and they have averaged 28.6 points per game in those outings. QB Joe Flacco and the Ravens have won and covered their last four meaningful games, as we aren’t going to count the Week 17 loss against the Cincinnati Bengals when both sets of starters were out of the lineup by halftime. Both of San Fran’s games have flown past the ‘total’ with relative ease here in the second season. In spite of the fact that Baltimore has scored at least 24 points in all of its games, two of the three have failed to reach the number.

Super Bowl Betting Trends: Super Bowl XLV Cheat Sheet

January 30th, 2011 by Adam Markowitz (Bankroll Sports Columnist) | Posted in NFL Football   Comments Off on Super Bowl Betting Trends: Super Bowl XLV Cheat Sheet
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Making Superbowl picks are our specialty here at Bankroll Sports, and in order to give you a helping hand on the upcoming duel in the Super Bowl, we’re breaking down some of the most notable Super Bowl trends for the duels left in the second season!

Sunday, February 6th, 6:35 ET: Green Bay Packers vs. Pittsburgh Steelers
NFL Trends of Note
The Packers are…
-5-1 ATS in their L/6 games against teams with a winning record
-5-1 ATS in their L/6 games overall
-19-6-1 ATS in their L/26 games following games in which they hold their foes to two TDs or fewer
-6-2 ATS in their L/8 games as favorites
-8-3-1 ATS in their L/12 games played on field turf
-12-5-1 ATS in their L/18 games following an ATS win
-2-5 ATS in their L/7 playoff games as favorites

The Steelers are…
-4-0 ATS in their L/4 games overall
-9-1 ATS in their L/10 playoff games
-5-1 ATS in their L/6 games following an SU victory
-4-1 ATS in their L/5 games following an ATS victory
-16-5-1 ATS in their L/22 games as underdogs of three points or fewer
-34-16-1 ATS in their L/51 games as underdogs overall

The over is…
-4-0 in Pittsburgh’s L/4 games following an ATS victory
-4-0 in Pittsburgh’s L/4 games following an SU victory
-5-1 in Pittsburgh’s L/6 playoff games as an underdog
-4-1 in Pittsburgh’s L/5 games overall
-16-5 in Pittsburgh’s L/21 playoff games

The under is…
-4-0 in Pittsburgh’s L/4 games as an underdog
-6-1 in Green Bay’s L/7 games following an SU victory
-8-3 in Green Bay’s L/11 games following an ATS victory
-5-2 in Green Bay’s L/7 games as a favorite of three points or fewer
-9-4 in Green Bay’s L/13 games against teams with a winning record
-5-2 in Green Bay’s L/7 games played on field turf

Series History
These are, without a shadow of a doubt, the two most storied franchises in the history of the NFL. Between them, there are 20 championships, nine of which are Superbowl betting victories. The two teams don’t generally play all that often, but they did last year, and Pittsburgh came away with a 37-36 triumph at home at Heinz Field. The Steelers have had the upper hand on the Pack for quite some time as well. Dating back to 1980, these two teams have met eight times, with Pittsburgh going 6-2 SU and 4-4 ATS. Though the last game between them featured 73 points, there hasn’t been another game between them that has had more than 47, and three of the L/6 clashes have featured 30 points or fewer.

AFC Championship Game Picks: New York Jets @ Pittsburgh Steelers

January 17th, 2011 by Adam Markowitz (Bankroll Sports Columnist) | Posted in NFL Football   2 Comments »
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There’s only one game left for all of the marbles in the AFC this year, as the Pittsburgh Steelers and New York Jets will be vying for the last spot in Super Bowl XLV on Sunday night. These two teams play some brutal football, and they are sure to put on a real defensive showcase when they collide in the Steel City. The oddsmakers have given the host Steelers the 3.5 point nod in this one, but is it justified? These three keys to the game should be used to sort out your AFC Championship Game picks for 2011.

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Key #1: Pressuring Big Ben
Here’s the interesting thing about this game and this key in particular. The Jets absolutely cannot beat the Steelers if they don’t figure out how to get in the face of QB Ben Roethlisberger. This doesn’t mean that they need to really get their stats like they did against QB Tom Brady when they brought him down five times on Sunday, but they do need to at least get in Big Ben’s throwing lanes and cause him to take some extra hits and spend some more time in the pocket. For Pittsburgh, it probably isn’t vital that the O-Line keeps men away from Roethlisberger due to the fact that he is a huge man and can shake some tackles. However, no one wants to see their quarterback take a dozen or more shots on the day like the Jets are planning for Pittsburgh’s signal caller in this one. The depth problem for Pittsburgh at offensive tackle has been well documented, as this team is already three deep right now into its depth chart from the start of the year at that position, and there are absolutely no more injuries that can be afforded. The interior line is in fine shape, and this is where New York brings the majority of its pressure, but the whole unit of five, six, or even seven blockers on some plays, really has to be broken down by the Jets if they hope to survive in the Steel City.

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Over/Under 38
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Key #2: Sanchez and company have to take care of the football
It really seems like the “Duh” statement of the year to think that the Jets have to keep a hold of the football in order to beat the Steelers, but this is exactly what the problem was for the Baltimore Ravens last week. If RB Ray Rice doesn’t fumble that screen pass or if QB Joe Flacco doesn’t fumble that snap or make that ill advised throw… if any of those things don’t happen, this game is likely being played in Baltimore and not in Pittsburgh. The Jets have just as much firepower on offense as Baltimore does, but they don’t have nearly as much confidence in QB Mark Sanchez as the Ravens do in QB Joe Flacco. However, on Sunday against the New England Patriots, “The Sanchise” was on fire, as he threw three TD passes and was not picked off. In fact, the Jets didn’t turn the ball over once on the day, something that is amazing against a defense that led the league in picks on the campaign. It seems awfully fundamental to think about, but it really is this simple. If the Jets turn the ball over more than once in this one, they’re in a lot of trouble. The Steelers need to make sure that they get the job done and get the ball back in the hands of their offense, where the real damage can be done. Remember when these two teams met the first time that S Troy Polamalu didn’t play. He’s a real difference maker in the center of this defense, and he could be a turnover forcing machine come Sunday.

Key #3: Rashard Mendenhall has to be big
If there’s one player for the Steelers that really has to have an impact game on Sunday, it is RB Rashard Mendenhall. He is the man that is going to keep the pressure off of Big Ben and the passing game, and he is also the one that can frustrate this defense to no end if he can keep the ball moving on the ground and keep that clock going. Mendenhall rushed for 100 yards on 19 carries the first time around when these teams met, proving that New York indeed had a beatable defense this year on the ground. This was still a unit that ranked No. 2 in the AFC and No. 3 in the league at just 90.1 yards per game this year, and the Jets did a fantastic job holding down the Pats, as neither RB Danny Woodhead nor RB BenJarvus Green-Ellis reached the 50 yard barrier on the day on Sunday. When Mendenhall reaches the 100+ yard barrier, the Steelers generally win, though obviously this was a huge exception this year. Pittsburgh was 5-0 when Mendenhall reached 100+ yards in his career prior to this point. You can bet that he is going to get his carries like he did last week against Baltimore, and when push comes to shove, having him make a big impact on this game might be the difference between going to the Super Bowl and watching it on TV for the men from the Steel City.

NFC Championship Picks: Green Bay Packers vs. Chicago Bears Analysis

January 16th, 2011 by Adam Markowitz (Bankroll Sports Columnist) | Posted in NFL Football   Comments Off on NFC Championship Picks: Green Bay Packers vs. Chicago Bears Analysis

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The first spot in Super Bowl XLV will be handed out on Sunday, January 23rd at Soldier Field in Chicago, IL, as the Chicago Bears will take on the Green Bay Packers. These two teams know all about each other, having already played two games this season, with the home team winning both duels. The Bears covered both sets of NFL odds in these divisional clashes, and the oddsmakers still have them as three point underdogs on Sunday. Which team will beat the NFC Championship odds? Check out these three keys to the game that should be the deciding factors.

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Key #1: The Bears need to play defense like they did in the first half against Seattle and not in the second half
We know that the NFC Divisional Round duel against the Seattle Seahawks was really a tale of two halves for the Bears, as they were completing dominating for about two and a half quarters before pulling up lame down the stretch and nearly blowing the cover. However, this is a unit that has just been downright nasty all season long, allowing just 90.1 yards per game on the ground in the regular season. Chicago only allowed 34 yards on 12 carries in its first postseason tussle as well. The Bears did allow 331.5 yards per game in the regular season to these Packers, but we really know better. A lot of the yards for QB Aaron Rodgers were created from just a few big plays, but they ultimately were not parlayed into all that many points. Keeping this team to just 27 points in two games is definitely a feat to be proud of. There were also two turnovers forced by the men from the Windy City in this one, which is a problem that the Packers have had at times over the course of this season. They’ve done a great job of protecting the pigskin thus far in the second season, especially against the Falcons when they had just one blown fumble, and the three turnovers that they have had haven’t really come back to bite them.

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Chicago Bears +3
Over/Under 44
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Key #2: Alright Jay Cutler… What’ve you got?
This isn’t necessarily a key that will cause Chicago to win this game, but it certainly could be a key to losing it. Cutler has been much maligned since coming to the Windy City, as he has thrown 42 picks in two years after throwing for just 37 picks in two and a half years with the Denver Broncos. The media in the Midway has been all over his case about not protecting the football and not coming up big in big games, and there are certainly still some reasons to believe that this is the case after winning his first playoff game on Sunday. Cutler did only go 15-of-28 on the day, a completion percent of just 53.6 percent, and this came against a defense that was dreadful against the pass all year long. The former Vanderbilt Commodore did toss three picks in two games against Green Bay in the regular season, and he ended the season with 16 boo boos. Enter the Packers ‘D’. This unit had 24 picks in the regular season, the most in the NFC and just one behind the New England Patriots for the league lead. We always thought that you wouldn’t find a better ball hawk in the game than DB Charles Woodson, but we were wrong. DB Tramon Williams has developed a tremendous nose for the ball, and he had the amazing pick six that sunk the Atlanta Falcons last Saturday. If Cutler gets careless with the football, he will throw picks to this team, and if he does that, the Bears don’t stand a chance.

Key #3: The battle at the line of scrimmage
You can bet that line play is going to be preached on both sides of the football this week. The Packers probably think they can get away with a little more leniency on this facet of the game because they are so talented elsewhere, but the team that wins this battle is most likely going to be the one that wins this game. Neither offensive line was that sharp all year, as neither opened up that many holes for the running game. Even in the divisional round games, the Bears averaged just 3.91 yards per carry (and that includes a 21 yard scamper by Cutler), while the Packers only averaged 3.10 yards per carry. Chicago’s OL is going to have to find a way to stop a Green Bay front that had five sacks of QB Matt Ryan on Saturday night, two of which came from one of the biggest sack masters in the league, LB Clay Matthews. The Packers are going to have to contend with a front seven that just has a mean streak in it, and though the Bears did really have the individual stats this year that some of the players on Green Bay’s ‘D’ did, they had the second best defensive front in terms of rushing this year in the league at just 90.1 yards per game.