2010 NFL Betting: Preseason Top 10 ATS Power Rankings
August 14th, 2010 by | Posted in NFL Football No Comments »The 2010 NFL betting campaign is just around the corner! In order to keep you up on all the action, Bankroll Sports has listed the Top 10 ATS teams from 2009, their 2010 Super Bowl odds, and our NFL predictions for them for this season!
#1 Green Bay Packers (+1000 to win Super Bowl XLV at JustBet Sportsbook): The Pack posted the best marks in the league last year for NFL betting fans, going 11-4-1 ATS. They are going to be back with a fantastic offense loaded with talent. QB Aaron Rodgers is likely to reach the 4,000 yard barrier for the third straight season to start his career, which is a feat that even some of the greatest in NFL history never even remotely came close to. If DC Dom Capers’ defense can keep its head on straight and post some of the best numbers in the league once again, there’s no reason to think that the Green Bay won’t once again be on top of the NFL ATS power ratings.
#2 Atlanta Falcons (+2500 to win Super Bowl XLV at JustBet Sportsbook): It’s impressive to think that the Falcons followed up a playoff campaign in 2008 with a non-playoff one in 2009 but still went a lofty 11-5 ATS. Could that bode even better for this year? HC Mike Smith thinks he has a winning formula, so he brought back the majority of players from last year’s 9-7 team. The only real key additions were LB Sean Weatherspoon, acquiring in the first round of the NFL Draft, and DB Dunta Robinson, who was picked up via free agency from the Houston Texans. Picking up Robinson was key, as it was the pass defense that really hurt this team late in games last season. Asking for 11 covers again this season might be a bit much, but Atlanta should post another great record this year.
#3 Indianapolis Colts (+600 to win Super Bowl XLV at JustBet Sportsbook): As long as #18 is roaming the sidelines for the Colts, they are going to be a difficult team to bet against. One would figure that the oddsmakers would be incredibly tough on them week in and week out, but in spite of the fact that their numbers are almost always at least a tad inflated, they went a rock solid 10-5-1 ATS in 2009. This could be the year that Indy snaps back to earth if the NFL spreads keep as high as they have been in recent seasons. It has a brutal schedule, and QB Peyton Manning is going to have to contend with a new offensive coordinator, as Tom Moore has retired.
#4 San Francisco 49ers (+3000 to win Super Bowl XLV at JustBet Sportsbook): This is probably a make-or-break season in the coaching career of Mike Singletary. No man asks for more from his team, nor will anyone get more from his players than does Singletary. Still, in spite of the fact that he went an awesome 9-4-3 ATS in last year’s regular season, Singletary has still yet to take this team to the playoffs. With a quarterback rotation set in stone and one of the most talented offensive lines in the game, the 49ers have no excuses this year. As long as the oddsmakers don’t start putting up unrealistically high numbers on it, San Francisco is going to be a great bet, particularly as underdogs this season.
#5 Cleveland Browns (+10000 to win Super Bowl XLV at JustBet Sportsbook): The Browns closed out last season by winning four straight games both SU and ATS to finish the year at 10-6 ATS. The turnaround was sparked by the addition of GM Mike Holmgren to the staff. Holmgren decided to retain HC Eric Mangini, but he dumped both of his quarterbacks. If QB Jake Delhomme can reinvent himself and the Browns play as hard as they did down the stretch last season, they could challenge for a playoff spot in the AFC. The Steelers, Bengals, and Ravens need to be very careful when this team turns up on the schedule. The end result should be covers galore!
#6 Minnesota Vikings (+1000 to win Super Bowl XLV at JustBet Sportsbook): This is a team that is probably damned if it does and damned if it doesn’t. If QB Brett Favre does come back to Minnesota, it will likely be overinflated in most every game it plays due to the fact that Favre had an epic season last year. If he doesn’t come back, the oddsmakers are still probably going to overrate this team due to the fact that Tarvaris Jackson and Sage Rosenfels flat out stink. Duplicating last year’s 9-6-1 ATS mark is going to be virtually impossible unless someone comes up with a truly Herculean effort.
#7 Philadelphia Eagles (+3000 to win Super Bowl XLV at JustBet Sportsbook): Fly Eagles, fly! Philly could be an interesting team to back this year if QB Kevin Kolb can step right into the role that QB Donovan McNabb vacated when he was traded to the Washington Redskins in the offseason. The Eagles could have a porous defense which holds them back this year though, which could make that 9-7 ATS mark from 2009 difficult to repeat. Still, a lot of NFL lines are going to be tight when this team takes on its competitors, so if you think Philadelphia can win nine games, you probably think it can cover nine spreads as well.
#8 New York Jets (+1200 to win Super Bowl XLV at JustBet Sportsbook): Last season, the Jets fooled a lot of teams, and the end result was a stellar 9-7 ATS mark. They marched all the way to the AFC Championship Game on the back of a strong defense and a rushing attack that ranked first in the NFL. Conventional wisdom suggests that the additions of DB Antonio Cromartie and DB Kyle Wilson could make this defense even more frightening, especially now that DT Kris Jenkins is healthy. Still, it’s going to take QB Mark Sanchez improving his game for New York to put up these types of results again.
#9 Denver Broncos (+6500 to win Super Bowl XLV at JustBet Sportsbook): Though many are down on the Broncos this year, we have to remember that most of the pieces to this puzzle are once again back in place. The big losses are WR Brandon Marshall, TE Tony Scheffler, and LB Elvis Dumervil. Dumervil, who led the team with 17 sacks last year, might be able to play at the end of this season after tearing a pectoral muscle in the preseason. However, the oddsmakers are seemingly making huge adjustments to this team. Yes, the Broncos collapsed down the stretch last year, but losses don’t mean failed covers. If the numbers get too large, improving on a 9-7 ATS record from ’09 is doable.
#10 Carolina Panthers (+5000 to win Super Bowl XLV at JustBet Sportsbook): The same could be said about the Panthers and their 9-7 ATS record from last year. Losing QB Jake Delhomme might be addition by subtraction, as both Matt Moore and rookie Jimmy Clausen can’t do much worse than the former Louisiana-Lafayette Ragin’ Cajun did last year. This season will once again revolve around the defense and running backs DeAngelo Williams and Jonathan Stewart. The Panthers might be able to surprise, as several are down on their chances of making the postseason in what could be the final year for HC John Fox.
#5. WR Roddy White (Atlanta Falcons) – Roddy White became a force for the Atlanta Falcons in his 3rd season, catching 83 receptions for 1,202 yards and 6 scores. A year later in the 2008 season those numbers improved with help from one of the best rookie quarterbacks that ever stepped on the field. White ended 2008 with 88 catches and ranked 4th in the NFL with 1,382 yards. However, following the breakout season that resulted in White’s first trip to a Pro Bowl things took an ugly turn. Entering the 2009 off-season, White was to begin the 5th year of a 5 year contract worth 2.28 million for the season. However, that was not nearly good enough for Roddy, when he announced he would not return to the team until he got the type of money he deserves for being an elite NFL target. It just happened to workout for White. After days of negotiation, White was offered a contract for 6 years worth 50 million dollars, becoming the 2nd highest paid receiver in the NFL. The proposal was good enough to get White back on the practice fields immediately and satisfied for at least a few more years. However, the deal has not appeared to be beneficial to the Falcons considering White has caught just 15 passes for 119 yards through his first 3 games in 2009. At this rate, he will be worth around $13,000 for every yard he produces for the Falcons organization.
#4. CB Dunta Robinson (Houston Texans) – Dunta Robinson was a first round pick for the Texans back in 2004. He jumped out to an impressive start in his rookie season picking off 6 passes. The early success brought some big bucks to the Texans star cornerback. However, Robinson has failed to repeat the success he has had in his rookie season. Robinson has had a season high, 2 interceptions since the 2004 season, and when his contract expired at the end of last season things got interesting. Robinson wanted money that a top 5 corner in the NFL would receive (around 23 million). However, Houston administration offered him just 18 million and evidently that was an insult to the young defensive back. While 5 million is a lot of money, it’s definitely not a soft proposal due to Robinson’s production in the NFL. However, Robinson held out from signing a long term contract and settled for 1 year deal making fewer than 10 million for the 2009 season. Robinson made even more headlines this season when his cleats were inscribed with the words “Pay me Rick” on the hill of the shoe. A statement aimed at Texans general manager Rick Smith. The move by Robinson to withhold from long term contract, reportedly cost the Texans cornerback 23 million in guaranteed funds.
#3. Terrell Owens (Buffalo Bills) – Owens’ contract propaganda, like his career, may be coming to an end. But, that does not take away from the multiple contract tirades that were given over the course of his career. Owens burst on the scene 1996 with the San Francisco 49ers and did not really breakout until the 2001 season. After a few pay increases and stable years, Owens became unhappy during the 2003 season and wanted to “explore his options.” The move was to land a bigger contract and that he did in 2004, when the Philadelphia Eagles gave him a 7 year deal worth 48 million dollars. Evidently the contract was not good enough. A year later after making 7.5 million the season prior, Owens openly stated that he needed a new contract “to feed his family.” After tons of controversy during his tenure with the Eagles, Owens was given a 2nd chance by the Dallas Cowboys, when they gave him a 3 year deal worth 25 million. Owens became an effective force in Dallas in lure of an elite passing offense destined for success. After posting a 1,355 yard season in 2007, Owens received another contract renewal for 4 years equaling 34 millions and more importantly, a 12 million signing bonus. While the deal was never made a public affair, it was reported the Owens requested a salary increase following the big year for the Cowboys. However, that would be the last of the salary saga for the controversial wide receiver. Owens was cut from Dallas following 2008 after internal conflict and picked up by the Buffalo Bills, where he has yet to produce this season catching just 8 passes for 158 yards (as of week 4)
#2. QB JaMarcus Russell (Oakland Raiders) – JaMarcus Russell was selected as the number 1 overall pick in the 2007 draft, but when the contract negotiations did not add up. Russell’s career went from the highest of high to the lowest of lows. In retrospect, the holdout was simply ridiculous. Russell was offered a 6 year deal for 60 million dollar contract with a guaranteed amount of 26.5 million. However, that was not good enough for the rookie who had never stepped on the field. The lucrative part of the story was not that Russell was unsatisfied with the yearly figures, but was looking for 30 million in guaranteed money. It almost seemed like he had 28 million in credit card debt that had to be taken care of right away. The holdout lasted several weeks which was enough time for the Raiders future quarterback to miss both training camps and all of the preseason. As a result, Russell was so far behind that he played catch up for the remainder of the 2007 season, starting just 4 games. To make matters worse, Russell has yet to have any success in the NFL after demanding all the money before ever proving his worthiness. Russell currently sits ranked dead last out of all starters for 2009 with a quarterback rating of 42.4 which has included just 1 touchdown pass all year with 4 other interceptions. In 2009, Al Davis is currently paying JaMarcus around 1.6 million dollars per touchdown pass.
#1. WR Michael Crabtree (San Francisco 49ers) – Whatever happened to proving your worth in your profession? Up until week 5, where negotiations were opened up again, the Michael Crabtree holdout was beginning to look like it could have ended up being the most ridiculous and foolish holdout in NFL history. After months of non-negotiations and each passing week of regular season action, it appeared that Crabtree was not going to play at all in his rookie season. The 49ers’ tenth overall pick in the 2009 draft was expected to be the first receiver selected in the NFL draft, but went 2nd behind Maryland’s Darius Heyward-Bey. Heyward-Bey and the Raiders reached a 5 year deal worth 38 millions, with 23.5 million guaranteed. However, Crabtree assumed that because of his name, he was worth more then what Heyward-Bey was paid by the Raiders. He demanded that he get more than the 23.5 million guaranteed that Heyward-Bey received. Evidently the 49ers have no interest in paying him that kind of money and doing so would give future rookies the impression that they can re-write the “slotting system” rules of rookie contract negotiations. So, “Crabs” and the 49ers organization haven’t reached any type of agreement after four weeks of NFL action. At this point, he has missed so much time of development and may no longer be worth the 20 million (plus incentives) that the 49ers originally offered him. Crabtree now has put himself into a foolish situation where he could miss the entire 2009 season. The question a lot of people are asking is what other team would want negotiate a deal with him for 2010 after missing an entire year of football? Even if a team were to negotiate with him, it would be unwise to offer him the type of money initially offered by the 49ers. However, the saga continues to put a bad taste on the perception of greed in the NFL. Crabtree’s public perception is also being ruined by this holdout, and if he doesn’t change his ways, so could his career in the NFL.
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