Posts Tagged ‘pro football picks’

Super Bowl Betting History: Historical Super Bowl Spreads & Lines

January 20th, 2013 by Adam Markowitz (Bankroll Sports Columnist) | Posted in NFL Football   Comments Off on Super Bowl Betting History: Historical Super Bowl Spreads & Lines
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49ers vs. RavensIn order to make the most successful Super Bowl picks this year when the Baltimore Ravens meet the San Francisco 49ers, we really have to look at the past and pick out some of the best Super Bowl trends that are on the board. Here’s a glance at all of the Super Bowls in the past and some of the most notable things that we can point out heading into the biggest duel of the season.

Note: Teams highlighted in green were Super Bowl favorites

Super Bowl Scores

The first thing that we notice right away is that there are a ton of favorites on the Super Bowl odds that have taken down the biggest game of the year outright. Favorites are 33-13 SU over the course of the 46 Super Bowls coming into this season. There are seven Super Bowls in which the favorite has won the game outright, but has failed to cover the number, three of which have ended in a push. Half of the last six favorites that won the Super Bowl didn’t beat the Super Bowl betting lines, something that didn’t happen once for the first nine championship games. Interestingly enough though, the team that has been favored in the Super Bowl has lost three of the last five games outright, as well as from an ATS standpoint. Underdogs are 4-1 ATS in the last five Super Bowls.

Bet Guardian Sports

The Ravens and the 49ers have played in six combined Super Bowls, and they are a flat out awesome 6-0 SU in those games. The Ravens have only been in one Super Bowl in franchise history, beating the New York Giants in 2000. The 49ers have five Super Bowls to their credit, and they are going to be in the big one for the first time since way back in 1994. There is only one team in the history of the NFL that has a spotless Super Bowl record to this point that has been in the game more than one time, and that’s San Francisco. Regardless of whether it is San Fran or Baltimore that wins this game, the winner will take that distinction over of being the only undefeated team with more than one appearance in the Super Bowl. The 49ers have played in five Super Bowls, winning all five, going 4-1 ATS in those games. The only failed attempt at a cover came in 1989 against the Cincinnati Bengals.

Baltimore’s Super Bowl against the Giants exceeded the ‘total’ easily. San Fran is 3-2 for ‘over’ bettors. If history holds for the 49ers, this should be a very high scoring game. In their five Super Bowl appearances, the 49ers have averaged outscoring their foes by the whopping score of 37.6-17.8, for an average of 55.4 points per game.

Since the Ravens moved from Cleveland, there hasn’t been a heck of a lot of history for these two teams against each other. The clubs have met just four times, with the 49ers going only 1-3 in those games. The teams have split the ATS proceedings. The most recent clash was last year on Thanksgiving Day night, a 16-6 win for John over Jim in the first ever Harbaugh Bowl, pitting the two brothers against one another. The 49ers have only scored 19 total points in three games against the Ravens since 2003, though only two of the four games have stayed beneath the ‘total’ that these two teams have ever played against each other.

2013 NFL Playoff Bracket w/ NFL Playoff Schedule & Predictions

January 20th, 2013 by Adam Markowitz (Bankroll Sports Columnist) | Posted in NFL Football   Comments Off on 2013 NFL Playoff Bracket w/ NFL Playoff Schedule & Predictions
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2013 NFL PlayoffsThe 2013 NFL Playoffs are here, and here at Bankroll Sports, we are going to take a look at the 2013 NFL playoffs and make our Super Bowl 47 predictions. Don’t miss out, as our expert NFL handicappers take a look at all of the best teams in the league, which ones have a chance to go all the way, and which are still quite a ways away from getting the job done.

NFL Playoffs Bracket

Super Bowl 47
#2 San Francisco 49ers vs. #4 Baltimore Ravens

The 2013 Super Bowl 47 odds are set to go, and the 49ers and the Ravens are going to be involved in the Harbaugh Bowl. These two teams have both had long roads to get here to the Super Bowl, but they both did a remarkable job beating the NFL betting lines each and every step of the way. Baltimore had the significantly tougher road, beating the Colts, Broncos, and Patriots. They beat both Denver and New England on the road, and they did so in fine fashion both teams. Yes, one could make the argument that this team has gotten a bit lucky off of things like the tipped pass that was intercepted at the end of the AFC Championship Game and the 70-yard touchdown pass at Mile High to WR Jacoby Jones. On the other side of the field, we have the 49ers, who were favored in each of their last two games to get to this point. Head Coach Jim Harbaugh pushed all of the right buttons this year, especially when he decided to put QB Alex Smith on the bench in favor of the more nimble QB Colin Kaepernick. It seems like ancient history now though, as Kaepernick has torn up the Packers and the Falcons here in the second season. This should be a remarkable game between two teams that are 6-0 in the Super Bowl all-time between them.

Final NFL Playoff Picture (AFC Playoff Bracket)
1: Denver Broncos (13-3)
2: New England Patriots (12-4)
3: Houston Texans (12-4)
4: Baltimore Ravens (10-6)
5: Indianapolis Colts (11-5)
6: Cincinnati Bengals (10-6)

AFC Playoff Schedule

AFC Wild Card Round
#5 Indianapolis Colts 9 @ #4 Baltimore Ravens 24 (Click Here For Colts @ Ravens Game Preview)
#6 Cincinnati Bengals 13 @ #3 Houston Texans 19 (Click Here For Bengals @ Texans Game Preview)

The first round of the playoffs is all set to go in the AFC, and the NFL matchups are quite intriguing. The 3/6 game between the Houston Texans and the Cincinnati Bengals is a rematch of the first round matchup last year between these two clubs. The difference this year though, is that Houston really comes into the playoffs struggling, while Cincinnati is on a high, quite the opposite of what we saw last year. The Texans have lost three of their last four games, and they went from a surefire lock for the No. 1 seed in the AFC to having to play in Wild Card Weekend. Of course, the team is a lot healthier this year than it was a campaign ago as well, knowing that QB Matt Schaub, and not QB TJ Yates will be throwing the ball all over the place. Cincinnati though, has one of the best defensive lines in the game, and it learned a lot last year with its youngsters, QB Andy Dalton and WR AJ Green. These two are going to try to pull off the upset this weekend. Click Here For Cincinnati vs. Houston NFL Playoffs Preview

The other battle is a big one as well, as the Baltimore Ravens and the Indianapolis Colts will square off at M&T Bank Stadium. This is the third time that these two teams have met in the playoffs, and those meetings occurred three years ago and three years prior to that. The Colts won both games. QB Andrew Luck will be on center stage in this, his first career playoff game, and he is going to try to go on the road and get the job done against a Baltimore team that has a great history of playing in the second season. QB Joe Flacco and the gang feel like they have the talent to get back to the AFC Championship Game for the second straight year, but there are some real questions about this defense in the end. This unit ranked in the 20s in most of the major defensive categories this year, something that you never, ever saw with this unit in the last decade or so. Click Here For Indianapolis vs. Baltimore NFL Playoffs Preview

The road to the Super Bowl goes through Mile High this year, as the Denver Broncos will host either the Bengals if they win, or the Colts/Ravens winner if Cincinnati fails. Houston will visit the No. 2 New England Patriots with a win in the first round of the playoffs, but if that the Texans lose, the winner of the Indianapolis/Baltimore game will head to Foxboro instead.

AFC Divisional Round
#3 Houston Texans 28 @ #2 New England Patriots 41 (Click Here For Texans @ Patriots Game Preview)
#4 Baltimore Ravens 38 @ #1 Denver Broncos 35 (Click Here For Broncos @ Ravens Game Preview)

The Texans might have lost three of their final four games in the regular season, but they ultimately still made it to the second round of the playoffs anyway when they knocked off the Bengals 19-13. This terrible stretch for the team started in Foxboro against the Patriots, but if there is a measure of revenge, this would be the time for the franchise to get it. There is no bigger moment in the history of the Houston franchise than this, and an upset would mean worlds to the club to get to the AFC Championship Game. New England has to be happy to have had the week off, but Head Coach Bill Belichick knows that this won’t be the easiest game in the world. It’s going to be a massive mismatch to see QB Matt Schaub against QB Tom Brady, but the Houston defense has to prove that the last meeting of these two teams was a farce. Obviously though, Schaub has to get the ball into the end zone, something that he has only done once in the last five games. The Houston offense only has two total TDs in the last four games, and that isn’t going to cut it. Click Here For Houston @ New England NFL Playoffs Preview

We have another December rematch in the second round of the AFC playoffs as well when the Ravens take on the Broncos. That game wasn’t the prettiest for the visitors either, as the Ravens were beaten 34-17 in that game. What’s worse for Baltimore is that that game came at M&T Bank Stadium, and now, to keep its season going, it is going to have to go to the other side of the country and knock off the No. 1 team in the conference, fresh off of a bye week. QB Peyton Manning has accomplished a ton this year, but one of the games in which he really didn’t play at his best was the game against these Ravens. That being said though, he did play well and brought the team to the easy victory without much muss or fuss. We know that Manning can win games in the playoffs, but can he do it in Denver in an outdoor setting instead of doing it at home in the RCA Dome/Lucas Oil Stadium? That’s going to be the big time question that has to be answered. QB Joe Flacco hasn’t had a problem getting here in the playoffs, but he has had a problem winning these big time games against the best teams in the AFC. This very well could be the last game of this era of Ravens football, knowing that LB Ray Lewis is retiring when this season is over with, and Baltimore is a heavy underdog and is not expected to challenge. Click Here For Baltimore @ Denver NFL Playoffs Preview

AFC Championship Game
#4 Baltimore Ravens 28 @ #2 New England Patriots 13 (Click Here For Ravens @ Patriots Game Preview)

For the second straight year, the Ravens and the Patriots are going to be playing against each other with the Lamar Hunt Trophy on the line. The winner will move on to Super Bowl 47, while the loser will have a long offseason to figure out what went wrong. QB Tom Brady and his Patriots are looking for some payback after losing 31-30 at M&T Bank Stadium back in September in a game that was decided by a last-second field goal by K Justin Tucker. Baltimore though, still has some revenge on its mind as well from losing the AFC Championship Game last year in this very building. Remember that WR Lee Evans had what would have been the game-winning touchdown pass in his hands before dropping it, and there was no excuse for K Billy Cundiff to miss a 32-yard field goal that would have forced overtime. There is a ton of emotion that is going to go into this game. It could be LB Ray Lewis’ last game. It could send Brady to a sixth Super Bowl, which would tie an NFL record for all players and would break the record for the most starts for a quarterback in the Super Bowl. It could be the game that validates the career of QB Joe Flacco. Or it could be just another game where the Ravens end up falling short of the ultimate goal, further making them the choke artists of the league. This should be a great game in Foxboro on Sunday. Click Here For Baltimore @ New England NFL Playoffs Preview

Final NFL Playoff Picture (NFC Playoff Bracket)
1: Atlanta Falcons (13-3)
2: San Francisco 49ers (11-4-1)
3: Green Bay Packers (11-5)
4: Washington Redskins (10-6)
5: Seattle Seahawks (11-5)
6: Minnesota Vikings (10-6)

NFC Playoff Schedule

NFC Wild Card Round
#5 Seattle Seahawks 24 @ #4 Washington Redskins 14 (Click Here For Seahawks @ Redskins Game Preview)
#6 Minnesota Vikings 10 @ #3 Green Bay Packers 24 (Click Here For Vikings @ Packers Game Preview)

The NFC side of the playoffs took its twists and turns in Week 17, but matters are all set at this point. For the third time this season, and for the third time since the start of December, the Green Bay Packers and the Minnesota Vikings are going to play against each other in the 3/6 game. RB Adrian Peterson will once again be the focal point, as he rushed for over 400 yards in two games against the Pack this year. Green Bay won the NFC North, earning the right to host this game, but it has to be smarting after losing last week at the Metrodome. The win put Minnesota into the second season and kept Green Bay from getting a first round bye. It’s a total mismatch between QB Aaron Rodgers and QB Christian Ponder, but these two teams played two great games against each other this year that could have gone either way. Click Here For Minnesota vs. Green Bay NFL Playoffs Preview

The Washington Redskins ended up earning the final playoff spot of the year by beating the Dallas Cowboys in the final Sunday Night Football game of the year, and now, they are going to reap the rewards. That was their seventh straight victory to end the season, and they needed that to win the NFC East. QB Robert Griffin III is clearly put together one of the best seasons that a rookie quarterback has ever had, but the man that he is going to be facing off against in this one, QB Russell Wilson threw for the most touchdowns in a single season for a rookie with 26. Wilson and the Seattle Seahawks really did a remarkable job this year, especially playing at home, where they ran the table and went 8-0. The problem? They went just 3-5 on the road, and they are going to have to win three more games on the road just to get to the Super Bowl. These two teams have played four straight games in Seattle in their meetings, including last year when the Skins pulled the upset. Click Here For Seattle vs. Washington NFL Playoffs Preview

The Atlanta Falcons have won the top seed in the NFC, and they are going to be waiting for the worst seed left remaining in the second season. Clear on the opposite coast, the San Francisco 49ers will be around to take on most likely the Packers, or the winner of the Seahawks/Redskins game.

NFC Divisional Round
#3 Green Bay Packers 31 @ #2 San Francisco 49ers 45 (Click Here For Packers @ 49ers Game Preview)
#5 Seattle Seahawks @ #1 Atlanta Falcons (Click Here For Seahawks @ Falcons Game Preview)

The second round of the playoffs will open up when the Packers and the 49ers do battle. This is a rematch of a Week 1 game that went the way of the Niners. However, QB Alex Smith was the quarterback in that one, and QB Colin Kaepernick is now the man calling the shots. The Packers were forced to throw the ball all game long, as they had to play the whole game from behind. This time around though, both of these teams are coming into the proceedings hot with a lot more on the line. There is going to be no degree of sneaking up on anyone. The winner of this one knows that it is going to have a good chance of hosting the NFC Championship Game, so the stakes are going to be even higher than they normally would be for a playoff game this early in the postseason. Click Here For Green Bay vs. San Francisco NFL Playoffs Preview

A Seattle team that is as hot as could be is going to take on an Atlanta team that has a god awful playoff history to start Sunday’s NFL playoffs action. The Seahawks have the second longest winning streak in the conference right now at six, and they have covered five of those six. The Falcons need a win in the playoffs more than any other team in the second saeson. They haven’t won a game since 2004 in the postseason, and QB Matt Ryan has a terrible history here in the playoffs. Seattle is the only team that went on the road and won a game in the playoffs in the first round, and it is going to have to fly from Seattle to DC back to Seattle and then to Atlanta for this one. It should be a very interesting game for sure, and it is expected to be the closest of the four playoff games in the Divisional Round of the playoffs Click Here For Seattle vs. Atlanta NFL Playoffs Preview

NFC Championship Game
#2 San Francisco 49ers 28 @ #1 Atlanta Falcons 24 (Click Here For 49ers @ Falcons Game Preview)

The 2013 NFC Championship Game should be a doozy this week. There aren’t many neutral NFL fans that would say that the Falcons are the better of the two teams that are going to be on the field. They do have home field advantage though, and that could go a long way, especially since the 49ers are playing a long way away from home. San Francisco has to get over the fact that it blew it in the NFC title game a campaign ago at home against the New York Giants, but this would be the way to get some sweet revenge. QB Colin Kaepernick put together one of the biggest games that a quarterback has ever had in a postseason game, especially for a quarterback that was making his postseason debut. That was at home, though. This one is on the road, and it comes in a hostile environment. The Falcons put together 30 minutes of championship football and 30 minutes of suspect football against the Seahawks. If we see the Falcons that played the first half against Seattle for the full 60 minutes, they’ll be in the Super Bowl. If we see the Falcons that played the second half against Seattle, this could be a brutal showing in the Georgia Dome, and all of the haters will be right back on the case of Head Coach Mike Smith and QB Matt Ryan. Click Here For San Francisco vs. Atlanta NFL Playoffs Preview

Super Bowl Betting Trends: Super Bowl XLV Cheat Sheet

January 30th, 2011 by Adam Markowitz (Bankroll Sports Columnist) | Posted in NFL Football   Comments Off on Super Bowl Betting Trends: Super Bowl XLV Cheat Sheet
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Making Superbowl picks are our specialty here at Bankroll Sports, and in order to give you a helping hand on the upcoming duel in the Super Bowl, we’re breaking down some of the most notable Super Bowl trends for the duels left in the second season!

Sunday, February 6th, 6:35 ET: Green Bay Packers vs. Pittsburgh Steelers
NFL Trends of Note
The Packers are…
-5-1 ATS in their L/6 games against teams with a winning record
-5-1 ATS in their L/6 games overall
-19-6-1 ATS in their L/26 games following games in which they hold their foes to two TDs or fewer
-6-2 ATS in their L/8 games as favorites
-8-3-1 ATS in their L/12 games played on field turf
-12-5-1 ATS in their L/18 games following an ATS win
-2-5 ATS in their L/7 playoff games as favorites

The Steelers are…
-4-0 ATS in their L/4 games overall
-9-1 ATS in their L/10 playoff games
-5-1 ATS in their L/6 games following an SU victory
-4-1 ATS in their L/5 games following an ATS victory
-16-5-1 ATS in their L/22 games as underdogs of three points or fewer
-34-16-1 ATS in their L/51 games as underdogs overall

The over is…
-4-0 in Pittsburgh’s L/4 games following an ATS victory
-4-0 in Pittsburgh’s L/4 games following an SU victory
-5-1 in Pittsburgh’s L/6 playoff games as an underdog
-4-1 in Pittsburgh’s L/5 games overall
-16-5 in Pittsburgh’s L/21 playoff games

The under is…
-4-0 in Pittsburgh’s L/4 games as an underdog
-6-1 in Green Bay’s L/7 games following an SU victory
-8-3 in Green Bay’s L/11 games following an ATS victory
-5-2 in Green Bay’s L/7 games as a favorite of three points or fewer
-9-4 in Green Bay’s L/13 games against teams with a winning record
-5-2 in Green Bay’s L/7 games played on field turf

Series History
These are, without a shadow of a doubt, the two most storied franchises in the history of the NFL. Between them, there are 20 championships, nine of which are Superbowl betting victories. The two teams don’t generally play all that often, but they did last year, and Pittsburgh came away with a 37-36 triumph at home at Heinz Field. The Steelers have had the upper hand on the Pack for quite some time as well. Dating back to 1980, these two teams have met eight times, with Pittsburgh going 6-2 SU and 4-4 ATS. Though the last game between them featured 73 points, there hasn’t been another game between them that has had more than 47, and three of the L/6 clashes have featured 30 points or fewer.

NFL Football Picks: Championship Weekend Props 1/23/11

January 23rd, 2011 by Adam Markowitz (Bankroll Sports Columnist) | Posted in NFL Football   Comments Off on NFL Football Picks: Championship Weekend Props 1/23/11
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There are only three games left in the entire NFL betting campaign, but before we get ready to make our Super Bowl XLV picks, we have some unfinished business to tend to in the AFC and NFC Championship Games. Check out our NFL prop picks for two of the biggest games of the entire season!

Will There Be a Score in the First 6.5 Minutes of the Game Bears/Packers Game?
We know that the Chicago offense got off to a great start last week against the Seattle Seahawks, but we also have to remember that these two teams have played some absolutely sparkling defense along the way as well. If the Bears get the ball first, there is a decent chance that a scoring drive might take over 6.5 minutes even if it does happen on the opening sequence, believe it or not. We’re believers that points could be at a premium on Sunday, and though that might not necessarily translate into a lower scoring game, we’ll take our chances that the first score doesn’t occur early on. Bank on there being No Score in the First 6.5 Minutes (-110 at Hollywood Sportsbook) between the Bears and the Packers.

Will There Be a Safety in Both Championship Games?
This season, including the playoffs, there have only been 13 safeties. That’s right. Over the course of all of those games in the NFL betting schedule, 264 of them, there have only been 13 safeties. That’s one safety in every 4.9% of games played in the league this year. In 2009, there were only 14 safeties, including the playoffs. Let’s do some simple math here, shall we? Over the last 531 games in the NFL, there have been 27 safeties, or one safety in approximately 20 games (5.08%). If we can hit this prop at -1000 in 94.92% of our games, we’re going to be worth a ton of money. Over 1,000 games, at this price, if we were to bet $1,000 to win $100, we would have a profit of $4,412. Not a bad haul, eh? No Safety in the NFC Championship Game, and No Safety in the AFC Championship Game (-1000 Each Bet at Hollywood Sportsbook).

Aaron Rodgers Over/Under 3.5 Rushing Attempts
Rodgers certainly hasn’t been afraid to tuck it and run when he has to this season, as he was one of the best running options for a team that really didn’t have all that much to work with in that department in 2010. The former Cal Golden Bear took off 64 times this year and accounted for 356 yards in the regular season, but what impressed us the most is the fact that he had seven carries in the 10-3 win over these Bears in Week 17. Rodgers hasn’t gotten to this point yet in the playoffs, as he only has five carries in two games, but we tend to believe that this will be an exception, as the Chicago defense is a lot more prone to sending a lot of men after the quarterback, which could cause Rodgers to have to escape more often than he really wants to. He’ll go Over 3.5 Rushing Attempts (-120 at Hollywood Sportsbook) against the Colts.

Matt Forte Over/Under 16.5 Yards on Longest Carry
It’s only one stroke of luck and one stroke of genius that will get Forte to this type of a number. We’ve seen that the Bears have stayed committed to Forte this season when they have had the chance to, and over the course of the last four games, he has at least 15 carries in all four outings and has averaged 19 carries per game. Forte isn’t really the most explosive runner in the world, but he has had a ton of opportunities, especially when he gets the ball in open space, to be able to take advantage and pick up some huge gainers. Over the course of the second half of the season, Chicago’s top running back has had a long carry of at least 17 yards six times, and we tend to believe that that will continue on Sunday. Forte’s longest carry will be Over 16.5 Yards (-115 at Hollywood Sportsbook).

Total Sacks in the AFC Championship Game
We’re a tad surprised to see Hollywood hang a ‘5’ in this game instead of a ‘5.5’ due to the fact that last week, there were 11 sacks in the duel between the Steelers and the Baltimore Ravens. We know that there are a ton of problems right now for the Steelers up front, and the Jets have really yet to show their best pass rush in these playoffs to date. After getting after QB Tom Brady all week last week, we have no doubt that New York can get to QB Ben Roethlisberger in this one, and when it does, it is going to make those opportunities pay off. There is no way, with these two ferocious defenses, that there aren’t Over 5 Sacks (-130 at Hollywood Sportsbook) significantly more often than not.

LaDainian Tomlinson Over/Under 18.5 Receiving Yards
You know that LT is going to get his touches in this game, and you know that the Pittsburgh defense is going to do what it can to make sure that he doesn’t have the same 49 yards on 11 carries that he had when these two squads met last month. We know that Tomlinson hasn’t been used all that much as a receiver of late, but there is a point that QB Mark Sanchez is going to have to realize that he doesn’t have the time to work the ball up the field against this Pittsburgh defense. Last week, it was TE Todd Heap for the Ravens that made all of those catches over the middle of the field, and it is clear that Tomlinson is going to be asked to fill that role as a check down option at times when Sanchez is in trouble. LT will go Over 18.5 Receiving Yards (-115 at Hollywood Sportsbook) against the Pittsburgh defense.

Heath Miller Over/Under 3.5 Receptions
We’ve already talked just a tad about inside routes with Heap and the Steelers defense, but what about the New York ‘D’? This unit really doesn’t give up much of anything to anyone, but if there is a bit of a weakness, it is against teams that really utilize either tight ends or other receiving options to sit down in the middle of the field. Last week, Brady was really forced to do nothing but try to throw balls underneath to WR Deion Branch and TE Rob Gronkowski, while the week before, the Colts did the exact same thing with TE Jacob Tamme. Now, enter Heath Miller, who has had at least four catches in three straight games and is proving to be a great safety net for Roethlisberger when he gets himself out of some trouble in the pocket. Big Ben loves using his big time tight end, as Miller often gets at least a half dozen looks per game. He’s a big play threat up the seams and could be in for a lot of looks on Sunday, especially knowing that WR Mike Wallace and his friends are going to be worked a ton up the sides of the field. This is the man in the middle that should have a great day. Miller will go Over 3.5 Receptions (-115 at Hollywood Sportsbook) against the New York ‘D’.

Super Bowl Betting Trends: AFC & NFC Championship Cheat Sheet

January 20th, 2011 by Adam Markowitz (Bankroll Sports Columnist) | Posted in NFL Football   1 Comment »
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Making Superbowl picks are our specialty here at Bankroll Sports, and in order to give you a helping hand on the upcoming duels in the AFC and NFC Championship Games, we’re breaking down some of the most notable Super Bowl trends for the duels left in the second season!

Sunday, January 23rd, 3:00 ET: Green Bay Packers @ Chicago Bears
NFL Trends of Note
The Packers are…
-5-1 ATS in their L/6 games on grass
-4-1 ATS in their L/5 on the road against teams with winning home records
-5-2 ATS in their L/7 as favorites
-5-2 ATS in their L/7 road games
-7-3 ATS in their L/10 against teams from the NFC
-11-5-1 ATS in their L/17 following an ATS victory
-1-5 ATS in their L/6 playoff games as a favorite
-9-3 ATS in their L/12 visits to Soldier Field

The Bears are…
-4-0 ATS in their L/4 games in January
-6-1 ATS in their L/7 against teams with a winning record
-4-1 ATS in their L/5 against the NFC North
-2-9 ATS in their L/11 as underdogs of between 3.5 and 10 points
-5-2 ATS in their L/7 following an SU victory
-4-1 ATS in their L/5 home games against teams with a winning road record
-6-1 ATS in their L/7 played on grass

The over is…
-4-1 in Green Bay’s L/5 playoff games
-5-2 in Green Bay’s L/7 road playoff games
-16-7 in Green Bay’s L/23 games as favorites of between 3.5 and 10 points
-4-0 in Chicago’s L/4 home games
-9-1 in Chicago’s L/10 games played in January
-5-1 in Chicago’s L/6 playoff games
-4-1 in Chicago’s L/5 home games against teams with a winning road record

The under is…
-5-0 in Green Bay’s L/5 games as road favorites
-6-2 in Green Bay’s L/8 against the NFC North
-5-2 in Green Bay’s L/7 road games against teams with winning home records
-8-2 in Green Bay’s L/10 road games
-18-7-1 in Chicago’s L/26 games as underdogs of between 3.5 and 10 points
-61-30-2 in Chicago’s L/93 games as underdogs overall
-6-0 in the L/6 meetings between Green Bay and Chicago
-5-1 in the L/6 meetings of Green Bay and Chicago at Soldier Field

Series History
You aren’t going to find two teams that really hate each other more than this, as these two teams have a history that is very, very deep. The Bears did pick up the victory against the NFL odds in both meetings this year with the Packers, but those were the first two covers in this series for the men from the Windy City since December 2007, a stretch of four straight for the Pack. Since 2004, these two teams have been relatively split, as Chicago is 8-6 SU and 7-6-1 ATS. However, the previous six meetings all belonged to Green Bay both SU and ATS. The Packers just love coming to Soldier Field. Since 1994, they are 14-4 SU and 13-5 ATS. The only time that these two met in the month of January here in the Windy City was in 2005, a 31-14 win for the visiting Packers.

Sunday, January 23rd, 6:30 ET: New York Jets @ Pittsburgh Steelers
NFL Trends of Note
The Jets are…
-4-0 ATS in their L/4 against the AFC
-6-1 ATS in their L/7 played in January
-4-1 ATS in their L/5 playoff games
-12-4 ATS in their L/16 played on the road
-8-3 ATS in their L/11 as underdogs
-10-4 ATS in their L/14 as underdogs of between 3.5 and 10 points
-14-6 ATS in their L/20 as road underdogs
-9-4 ATS in their L/13 against teams with a winning record
-4-1 ATS in their L/5 meetings with the Steelers

The Steelers are…
-9-0 ATS in their L/9 played in January
-5-0 ATS in their L/5 home playoff games
-8-1 ATS in their L/9 playoff games overall
-5-1 ATS in their L/6 overall
-5-1 ATS in their L/6 playoff games as favorites
-4-1 ATS in their L/5 home games
-4-1 ATS in their L/5 as home favorites
-4-1 ATS in their L/5 as favorites of between 3.5 and 10 points in the playoffs
-22-9 ATS in their L/31 home games as favorites of between 3.5 and 10 points

The over is…
-4-0 in New York’s L/4 games as a road underdog of 3.5 to 10 points
-5-0 in New York’s L/5 games on grass
-10-1 in New York’s L/11 road games
-7-1 in New York’s L/8 games as an underdog
-8-2 in New York’s L/10 games in January
-8-2 in New York’s L/10 games following an ATS victory
-9-3 in New York’s L/12 games following an SU win
-19-7-1 in New York’s L/27 games against the AFC
-5-2 in New York’s L/7 playoff games
-5-0 in Pittsburgh’s L/5 AFC Championship Games
-4-0 in Pittsburgh’s L/4 playoff games as favorites
-10-1 in Pittsburgh’s L/11 home playoff games
-19-2 in Pittsburgh’s L/21 games played in January
-14-2 in Pittsburgh’s L/16 playoff games
-20-7-1 in Pittsburgh’s L/28 home games against teams with a winning road record
-51-25-3 in Pittsburgh’s L/79 games as a home favorite

The under is…
-5-2 in the L/7 meetings in this series

Series History
Dating back to 1981, there are only 15 meetings between the Jets and the Steelers, and this is bound to be yet another epic clash. The only playoff meeting in the bunch came in 2005, when New York had every chance in the world to pull off the upset as 9.5 point underdogs, but kick after kick kept either coming up short or sailing wide to give the Steelers a chance. Eventually, they came up with a 20-17 triumph in OT. The Jets did win the one meeting this year between these teams, and it came here at Heinz Field. The 22-17 win was the victory that really started this great run of games for the Jets, who are now in their second straight AFC Championship Game. New York has covered three straight in this series, but the Steelers are 11-4 ATS since 1981.

NFL Football Picks: Wild Card Weekend Props 1/8/11

January 8th, 2011 by Adam Markowitz (Bankroll Sports Columnist) | Posted in NFL Football   Comments Off on NFL Football Picks: Wild Card Weekend Props 1/8/11
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Saturday marks the first day of 2011 NFL playoff betting action, as four teams begin their quest to win the Lombardi Trophy. Check out some of the best props on the board for today’s NFL betting action!

Reggie Bush Rushing + Receiving Yards Over/Under 77.5
We’re taking a bit of a gamble here on Bush, as we know that he could be in a position where he just doesn’t touch the ball all that much. However, we do have a few things on our side in this one. First off, we tend to believe that the Saints are going to be winning this game the whole way, which really should prompt a tremendous amount of carries for someone in this backfield. The second thing on our side is that we know that there aren’t really any healthy rushing options for Head Coach Sean Peyton to turn to, as all of his top backs are on the shelf in this one. Will it be RB Julius Jones, or Bush getting the rock more often than not? We tend to believe that the answer is Bush, and if that’s the case, he should easily get to this number. Especially when you consider the fact that you know the former USC Trojan is good for at least three or four catches on the day as well, we have to go with Bush Over 77.5 Rushing + Receiving Yards (-115 at Hollywood Sportsbook) in Wild Card Weekend.

New Orleans Saints Margin of Victory
This is the type of prop that we only like to play in certain situations. However, knowing that the Saints are already laying 11 points in this game, it seems like a good conclusion that they are going to be winning this one by at least double that more than one out of seven times. The Seahawks have already been railroaded by lesser teams by this many points at home this year, and there is a decent chance that the wheels could just fall off of the train at some point for the hosts. No, we’re not saying that New Orleans is a lock to win this game, or that we necessarily think that they are beating the NFL odds in this one more often than not, but we do think that we are getting a fantastic price here on them to win this game by at least 22 points. New Orleans Saints Margin of Victory 22 Points or More (+700 at Hollywood Sportsbook).

Mark Sanchez Longest Completion Over/Under 31.5 Yards
This is perhaps the strongest prop on the board, as it is the weakest number that the oddsmakers have put up there. Sanchez has a number of weapons at his disposal that can stretch the field, namely WR Santonio Holmes and WR Braylon Edwards. He takes his fair share of shots down the field over the course of the game, and here, we are just asking him to pull the trigger for one shot of at least 32 yards. That’s something that Sanchez has already done ten times this year in just 15 starts. Yes, we know that we are factoring into the equation getting hurt and all of that, but without any unforeseen circumstances, especially in a game in which we know that Head Coach Rex Ryan is pulling out all of the stops, there is no reason to think that Sanchez’s longest completion won’t be Over 31.5 Yards (-115 at Hollywood Sportsbook) against the Colts.

Peyton Manning First Pass Complete Or Incomplete
C’mon Hollywood… Give us a break. Manning completed right around 2/3 of his passes this year, completing 66.2 percent of all attempts, and that doesn’t even include all of the times that he spiked the football. Sure, the Jets have a fantastic defense, but this is a gimme. We know that this is cashing at least two out of three times, and if that’s the case, we’re going to make quite a good bit of money on this NFL prop bet. Manning’s first pass will be Complete (-190 at Hollywood Sportsbook).

Adam Vinetiari Over/Under 7.5 Points
You don’t see us try our hand at the various kicker props all that often, but this is a great situation to be in right now. We really probably only need Vinetiari to kick two field goals in this game for him to get past the 7.5 point mark, and we tend to think, especially in the playoffs, that this is going to happen at least 60 percent of the time. Sure, we know that Vinetiari only reached this point eight times on the season, and we know that he doesn’t have a leg that can boot the ball 50+ yards anymore, but we also know that this is playoff time, and there isn’t a kicker that has nailed more clutch kicks in his career than this man has. Especially kicking in absolutely perfect conditions in the dome, there’s no reason to believe that Vinetiari can’t go Over 7.5 Points (-115 at Hollywood Sportsbook) at least six out of ten times.

2010-11 NFL Playoff Picture & Playoff Scenarios (Updated 12/29)

January 2nd, 2011 by Adam Markowitz (Bankroll Sports Columnist) | Posted in NFL Football   6 Comments »
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NFC East

Philadelphia Eagles (10-5) – Philly’s chances of moving up in the playoff picture was shot on Tuesday night when it was shocked by the Minnesota Vikings at home. Now, the No. 3 seed awaits the NFC East champs regardless of what happens in the finale against the Dallas Cowboys. Remaining Schedule: vs. DAL

New York Giants (9-6) – The Giants put themselves in a world of hurt right now in the push in the NFC. A win is a must next week against the Washington Redskins, and anything less won’t get the job done. Then from there, the G-Men need either a loss by the Packers against the Chicago Bears, or they need the New Orleans Saints to lose both this week against the Atlanta Falcons and next week against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. Remaining Schedule: @ WAS

Washington Redskins (6-9) – The Redskins upset the Jacksonville Jaguars last week, but they know that they can deliver an even bigger blow to the New York Giants next week with an upset at home. Aside from the ability to feel good about ending an arch rival’s season though, there’s nothing else to play for in our nation’s capitol. Remaining Schedule: vs. NYG

Dallas Cowboys (5-10) – Gaffes both offensively and on special teams really cost the Cowboys a ‘W’ at the lowly Arizona Cardinals. We’re probably going to get our first look at QB Stephen McGee as a starter next week unless QB Tony Romo decides to suit up, as QB Jon Kitna is out of the lineup. Remaining Schedule: vs. PHI

NFC North

Chicago Bears (11-4) – It’s not often that you see the Bears rooting for the Minnesota Vikings, but with their hated rivals’ victory on a rare Tuesday Night Football duel, they clinched a first round bye in the playoffs. Chicago really doesn’t have anywhere to go from here unless a bunch of things happen. It needs a win and losses by both the Atlanta Falcons and New Orleans Saints to become the No. 1 seed in the playoffs. Remaining Schedule: @ GB

Green Bay Packers (9-6) – It’s win and in for the Packers this week, as they know that a ‘W’ against the Chicago Bears puts them in the playoffs once and for all. They can also get in with a loss, but only if both the Tampa Bay Buccaneers and New York Giants lose in Week 17 as well. There’s nowhere to go but to be the No. 6 seed in the playoffs, meaning a win parlayed with a victory by the Philadelphia Eagles sets up a rematch in the Windy City between these same two teams next week in the first round of the playoffs. Remaining Schedule: vs. CHI

Minnesota Vikings (6-9) – Give the Vikes some big time credit for taking down the Philadelphia Eagles on the road on Tuesday with third string QB Joe Webb doing the bulk of the damage offensively. The ‘W’ might have saved the job for Head Coach Leslie Frazier, who really wants to have the interim tag removed from his title for next year. Remaining Schedule: @ DET

Detroit Lions (5-10) – Give it up for the Lions, who have now won back to back road games for the first time in eons. Their fans should come out in droves this week to support them for the finale against the Minnesota Vikings, which could be the game that ensures that they do not finish in last place in the NFC North. Remaining Schedule: vs. MIN

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NFC South

Atlanta Falcons (12-3) – Atlanta didn’t do itself any favorites on Monday Night Football by losing to the New Orleans Saints, as now, it needs to win this final game of the season against the Carolina Panthers to ensure the No. 1 seed in the playoffs in the NFC. A loss makes things more interesting. If that happens and the Saints win on Sunday, the Falcons are suddenly going on the road as a Wild Card. If the Saints also lose and the Bears win, they’ll be the No. 2 seed, and if all three teams lose, they’ll hang on as the top seed in the conference. Remaining Schedule: vs. CAR

New Orleans Saints (11-4) – The Saints took a situation that could have been very, very sticky and turned it into one with nothing to lose on Sunday. They beat the Atlanta Falcons and kept their hopes alive for an NFC South title, and if it were acquired, they would be the No. 1 overall seed in the NFC. It’ll take a win by over the Tampa Bay Buccaneers and an Atlanta loss to the lowly Carolina Panthers to happen though, and anything less leaves it on the road as the No. 5 seed, where it will take on the NFC West champs in the Wild Card round of the playoffs. Remaining Schedule: vs. TB

Tampa Bay Buccaneers (9-6) – The Bucs pretty much know that they are coming out of the No. 6 seed in the playoffs if they get in, as their only chance of being the No. 5 seed would be a win in Week 17 over the New Orleans Saints and losses in Week 17 by both the Green Bay Packers and New York Giants. With the unlikeliness of that happening, Tampa Bay is sitting at home tonight and cheering for the Atlanta Falcons. That would put the Bucs in a position where a win would put them within a win and loss by either the Packers or Giants from getting into the playoffs. A loss in Week 17 eliminates Tampa Bay one way or the other. Remaining Schedule: @ NO

Carolina Panthers (2-13) – It’s official… And with the first pick in the 2011 NFL Draft, the Carolina Panthers select… Remaining Schedule: @ ATL

NFC West

St. Louis Rams (7-8) – Once St. Louis won its duel against the San Francisco 49ers on Sunday, it knew that the showdown next week against the Seattle Seahawks was for all the marbles in the division. A win leaves the Rams as the No. 4 seed in the playoffs and hosting a game in the first round. A loss eliminates them from the postseason. Remaining Schedule: @ SEA

Seattle Seahawks (6-9) – Seahawks fans have to be wondering what in the heck Head Coach Pete Carroll was doing when he played QB Matt Hasselbeck last week against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. The game was 100% meaningless to the Seahawks once the St. Louis Rams beat the San Francisco 49ers, as we knew that the game up at Qwest Field on Sunday Night Football was going to be the one that determined the winner of the NFC West regardless. Just like the Rams, a win earns the No. 4 seed, while a loss knocks Seattle out of the playoffs. Remaining Schedule: vs. STL

San Francisco 49ers (5-10) – It should really come as no surprise to anyone that the Niners canned Head Coach Mike Singletary just hours after they were eliminated from the playoffs mathematically. Remaining Schedule: vs. ARI

Arizona Cardinals (5-10) – Can you imagine just how bad the NFC West is if the Cardinals end up finishing second in the division? That could be a reality with a win on Sunday against the San Francisco 49ers. Remaining Schedule: @ SF

AFC East

New England Patriots (13-2) – The road to the Super Bowl goes through Foxboro officially, as the Pats locked up the No. 1 overall seed in the playoffs with a win on Sunday at the Buffalo Bills. If we see QB Tom Brady and the regulars on Sunday against the Miami Dolphins, it will only be as a cameo appearance for the hometown crowd to applaud their heroes, as this one is totally meaningless. Remaining Schedule: vs. MIA

New York Jets (10-5) – The Jets essentially hit the backdoor in the playoffs, earning a spot in the second season in spite of the fact that they lost on Sunday to the Chicago Bears. They know that they’ll be the No. 6 seed if the Baltimore Ravens and Pittsburgh Steelers both win in Week 17 regardless of what happens at home against the Buffalo Bills, but if the Pittsburgh Steelers lose and the Jets win, they’ll move up to the No. 5 seed. To show how little Head Coach Rex Ryan cares about that, he’s already announced that he is sitting QB Mark Sanchez on Sunday. Remaining Schedule: vs. BUF

Miami Dolphins (7-8) – Is it just us, or are the Dolphins praying that QB Jake Locker falls to them this year in the NFL Draft? The offense has been disgraceful all season long, and two picks by QB Chad Henne in a span of just a few minutes took a ten point lead and turned it into a seven point defeat against the lowly Detroit Lions. Remaining Schedule: @ NE

Buffalo Bills (4-11) – The Bills never really stood a chance on Sunday in the home finale against the New England Patriots, and they can’t even really spoil anything against the New York Jets this weekend either. Remaining Schedule: @ NYJ

AFC North

Pittsburgh Steelers (11-4) – Step 1 for Pittsburgh is complete, but there is still one more matter to take care of. The Steelers need to beat the Cleveland Browns on Sunday to win the AFC South. A loss by the Baltimore Ravens would also get the job done, though there is clearly no desire to backdoor into a first round bye like that. A loss and wins by the Ravens and the New York Jets would leave Pittsburgh as the No. 6 seed. A loss and a loss by the Jets leaves it at No. 5.Remaining Schedule: @ CLE

Baltimore Ravens (11-4) – Baltimore is going everything that it can to become the No. 2 seed in the AFC, as it needs to just keep on winning and hope that the Pittsburgh Steelers trip in Week 17. A win and a loss by the New York Jets guarantees no worse than the No. 5 seed in the playoffs, while a win and a Pittsburgh loss wins the division. The Ravens are already in the dance for certain, though. Remaining Schedule: vs. CIN

Cleveland Browns (5-10) – The Browns never stood a shot against the Baltimore Ravens, and now they are stuck taking on the Pittsburgh Steelers. Remaining Schedule: vs. PIT

Cincinnati Bengals (4-11) – The Bengals upset the San Diego Chargers to end their season on Sunday, and they can ensure that the Baltimore Ravens are going on the road with an upset at M&T Bank Stadium in Week 17. Remaining Schedule: @ BAL

AFC South

Indianapolis Colts (9-6) – It’s win and in at this point for the Colts, but they have a lifeline now as well after extending their lead in the AFC South to one with one to play. A win and a loss by the Kansas City Chiefs wins the No. 3 seed, while a win or a loss by the Jacksonville Jaguars and a win by the Chiefs leaves Indy at No. 4. Remaining Schedule: vs. TEN

Jacksonville Jaguars (8-7) – The Jags know that they need to win on Sunday, something that they probably had to do one way or the other to win the AFC South. Sunday’s loss against the Washington Redskins really didn’t hurt them any. The only road to the second season is a win parlayed with a loss by the Indianapolis Colts, and if that were to happen, Jacksonville would be the No. 4 seed in the playoffs. Remaining Schedule: @ HOU

Tennessee Titans (6-9) – The Titans were officially knocked out of the playoffs in Week 16 with a bad loss at the Kansas City Chiefs. Now, all they can do is play the role of spoiler against the Indianapolis Colts, who are likely to win the AFC South again this year. Remaining Schedule: @ IND

Houston Texans (5-10) – The newest way the Texans blew a game came this week when they were beaten by a rookie quarterback for his first career win after holding a 17 point lead at halftime and a 13 point edge going into the fourth quarter. Is there a reason that Head Coach Gary Kubiak hasn’t been fired yet? Remaining Schedule: vs. JAX

AFC West

Kansas City Chiefs (10-5) – Kansas City could really care less whether it ends up being the No. 3 or the No. 4 seed, but a win on Sunday against the Oakland Raiders would clinch the No. 3 seed. A loss and a win by the Indianapolis Colts would knock the Chiefs down to No. 4. Regardless though, KC can call itself the champion of the AFC West, something that was looked at as an impossibility at the outset of the season. Remaining Schedule: vs. OAK

San Diego Chargers (8-7) – In typical Chargers fashion, they were defeated by the Cincinnati Bengals on Sunday to knock them out of the playoffs once and for all. It probably wouldn’t have mattered, as KC was probably unlikely to lose a game down the stretch, but this really eliminated any chance and might have put Head Coach Norv Turner on a very, very hot seat as we go into next year. Remaining Schedule: @ DEN

Oakland Raiders (7-8) – Oakland knew that its season was over before getting started in Week 16, as it was bounced from the second season when the Kansas City Chiefs won earlier that day. Still, the chance to finish .500 by beating the division champs on the road in the regular season finale is too good of a chance to pass up for a team that is clearly on the rise. Remaining Schedule: @ KC

Denver Broncos (4-11) – Denver really messed up its chances of having the No. 2 pick in the NFL Draft by beating the Houston Texans on Sunday, but QB Tim Tebow was all smiles after posting a huge comeback from down 17 at the half and 13 through three quarters to notch his first ever win. Remaining Schedule: vs. SD