Posts Tagged ‘NFL trends’

Super Bowl Betting History: Historical Super Bowl Spreads & Lines

January 20th, 2013 by Adam Markowitz (Bankroll Sports Columnist) | Posted in NFL Football   Comments Off on Super Bowl Betting History: Historical Super Bowl Spreads & Lines
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49ers vs. RavensIn order to make the most successful Super Bowl picks this year when the Baltimore Ravens meet the San Francisco 49ers, we really have to look at the past and pick out some of the best Super Bowl trends that are on the board. Here’s a glance at all of the Super Bowls in the past and some of the most notable things that we can point out heading into the biggest duel of the season.

Note: Teams highlighted in green were Super Bowl favorites

Super Bowl Scores

The first thing that we notice right away is that there are a ton of favorites on the Super Bowl odds that have taken down the biggest game of the year outright. Favorites are 33-13 SU over the course of the 46 Super Bowls coming into this season. There are seven Super Bowls in which the favorite has won the game outright, but has failed to cover the number, three of which have ended in a push. Half of the last six favorites that won the Super Bowl didn’t beat the Super Bowl betting lines, something that didn’t happen once for the first nine championship games. Interestingly enough though, the team that has been favored in the Super Bowl has lost three of the last five games outright, as well as from an ATS standpoint. Underdogs are 4-1 ATS in the last five Super Bowls.

Bet Guardian Sports

The Ravens and the 49ers have played in six combined Super Bowls, and they are a flat out awesome 6-0 SU in those games. The Ravens have only been in one Super Bowl in franchise history, beating the New York Giants in 2000. The 49ers have five Super Bowls to their credit, and they are going to be in the big one for the first time since way back in 1994. There is only one team in the history of the NFL that has a spotless Super Bowl record to this point that has been in the game more than one time, and that’s San Francisco. Regardless of whether it is San Fran or Baltimore that wins this game, the winner will take that distinction over of being the only undefeated team with more than one appearance in the Super Bowl. The 49ers have played in five Super Bowls, winning all five, going 4-1 ATS in those games. The only failed attempt at a cover came in 1989 against the Cincinnati Bengals.

Baltimore’s Super Bowl against the Giants exceeded the ‘total’ easily. San Fran is 3-2 for ‘over’ bettors. If history holds for the 49ers, this should be a very high scoring game. In their five Super Bowl appearances, the 49ers have averaged outscoring their foes by the whopping score of 37.6-17.8, for an average of 55.4 points per game.

Since the Ravens moved from Cleveland, there hasn’t been a heck of a lot of history for these two teams against each other. The clubs have met just four times, with the 49ers going only 1-3 in those games. The teams have split the ATS proceedings. The most recent clash was last year on Thanksgiving Day night, a 16-6 win for John over Jim in the first ever Harbaugh Bowl, pitting the two brothers against one another. The 49ers have only scored 19 total points in three games against the Ravens since 2003, though only two of the four games have stayed beneath the ‘total’ that these two teams have ever played against each other.

2013 NFL Playoff Bracket w/ NFL Playoff Schedule & Predictions

January 20th, 2013 by Adam Markowitz (Bankroll Sports Columnist) | Posted in NFL Football   Comments Off on 2013 NFL Playoff Bracket w/ NFL Playoff Schedule & Predictions
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2013 NFL PlayoffsThe 2013 NFL Playoffs are here, and here at Bankroll Sports, we are going to take a look at the 2013 NFL playoffs and make our Super Bowl 47 predictions. Don’t miss out, as our expert NFL handicappers take a look at all of the best teams in the league, which ones have a chance to go all the way, and which are still quite a ways away from getting the job done.

NFL Playoffs Bracket

Super Bowl 47
#2 San Francisco 49ers vs. #4 Baltimore Ravens

The 2013 Super Bowl 47 odds are set to go, and the 49ers and the Ravens are going to be involved in the Harbaugh Bowl. These two teams have both had long roads to get here to the Super Bowl, but they both did a remarkable job beating the NFL betting lines each and every step of the way. Baltimore had the significantly tougher road, beating the Colts, Broncos, and Patriots. They beat both Denver and New England on the road, and they did so in fine fashion both teams. Yes, one could make the argument that this team has gotten a bit lucky off of things like the tipped pass that was intercepted at the end of the AFC Championship Game and the 70-yard touchdown pass at Mile High to WR Jacoby Jones. On the other side of the field, we have the 49ers, who were favored in each of their last two games to get to this point. Head Coach Jim Harbaugh pushed all of the right buttons this year, especially when he decided to put QB Alex Smith on the bench in favor of the more nimble QB Colin Kaepernick. It seems like ancient history now though, as Kaepernick has torn up the Packers and the Falcons here in the second season. This should be a remarkable game between two teams that are 6-0 in the Super Bowl all-time between them.

Final NFL Playoff Picture (AFC Playoff Bracket)
1: Denver Broncos (13-3)
2: New England Patriots (12-4)
3: Houston Texans (12-4)
4: Baltimore Ravens (10-6)
5: Indianapolis Colts (11-5)
6: Cincinnati Bengals (10-6)

AFC Playoff Schedule

AFC Wild Card Round
#5 Indianapolis Colts 9 @ #4 Baltimore Ravens 24 (Click Here For Colts @ Ravens Game Preview)
#6 Cincinnati Bengals 13 @ #3 Houston Texans 19 (Click Here For Bengals @ Texans Game Preview)

The first round of the playoffs is all set to go in the AFC, and the NFL matchups are quite intriguing. The 3/6 game between the Houston Texans and the Cincinnati Bengals is a rematch of the first round matchup last year between these two clubs. The difference this year though, is that Houston really comes into the playoffs struggling, while Cincinnati is on a high, quite the opposite of what we saw last year. The Texans have lost three of their last four games, and they went from a surefire lock for the No. 1 seed in the AFC to having to play in Wild Card Weekend. Of course, the team is a lot healthier this year than it was a campaign ago as well, knowing that QB Matt Schaub, and not QB TJ Yates will be throwing the ball all over the place. Cincinnati though, has one of the best defensive lines in the game, and it learned a lot last year with its youngsters, QB Andy Dalton and WR AJ Green. These two are going to try to pull off the upset this weekend. Click Here For Cincinnati vs. Houston NFL Playoffs Preview

The other battle is a big one as well, as the Baltimore Ravens and the Indianapolis Colts will square off at M&T Bank Stadium. This is the third time that these two teams have met in the playoffs, and those meetings occurred three years ago and three years prior to that. The Colts won both games. QB Andrew Luck will be on center stage in this, his first career playoff game, and he is going to try to go on the road and get the job done against a Baltimore team that has a great history of playing in the second season. QB Joe Flacco and the gang feel like they have the talent to get back to the AFC Championship Game for the second straight year, but there are some real questions about this defense in the end. This unit ranked in the 20s in most of the major defensive categories this year, something that you never, ever saw with this unit in the last decade or so. Click Here For Indianapolis vs. Baltimore NFL Playoffs Preview

The road to the Super Bowl goes through Mile High this year, as the Denver Broncos will host either the Bengals if they win, or the Colts/Ravens winner if Cincinnati fails. Houston will visit the No. 2 New England Patriots with a win in the first round of the playoffs, but if that the Texans lose, the winner of the Indianapolis/Baltimore game will head to Foxboro instead.

AFC Divisional Round
#3 Houston Texans 28 @ #2 New England Patriots 41 (Click Here For Texans @ Patriots Game Preview)
#4 Baltimore Ravens 38 @ #1 Denver Broncos 35 (Click Here For Broncos @ Ravens Game Preview)

The Texans might have lost three of their final four games in the regular season, but they ultimately still made it to the second round of the playoffs anyway when they knocked off the Bengals 19-13. This terrible stretch for the team started in Foxboro against the Patriots, but if there is a measure of revenge, this would be the time for the franchise to get it. There is no bigger moment in the history of the Houston franchise than this, and an upset would mean worlds to the club to get to the AFC Championship Game. New England has to be happy to have had the week off, but Head Coach Bill Belichick knows that this won’t be the easiest game in the world. It’s going to be a massive mismatch to see QB Matt Schaub against QB Tom Brady, but the Houston defense has to prove that the last meeting of these two teams was a farce. Obviously though, Schaub has to get the ball into the end zone, something that he has only done once in the last five games. The Houston offense only has two total TDs in the last four games, and that isn’t going to cut it. Click Here For Houston @ New England NFL Playoffs Preview

We have another December rematch in the second round of the AFC playoffs as well when the Ravens take on the Broncos. That game wasn’t the prettiest for the visitors either, as the Ravens were beaten 34-17 in that game. What’s worse for Baltimore is that that game came at M&T Bank Stadium, and now, to keep its season going, it is going to have to go to the other side of the country and knock off the No. 1 team in the conference, fresh off of a bye week. QB Peyton Manning has accomplished a ton this year, but one of the games in which he really didn’t play at his best was the game against these Ravens. That being said though, he did play well and brought the team to the easy victory without much muss or fuss. We know that Manning can win games in the playoffs, but can he do it in Denver in an outdoor setting instead of doing it at home in the RCA Dome/Lucas Oil Stadium? That’s going to be the big time question that has to be answered. QB Joe Flacco hasn’t had a problem getting here in the playoffs, but he has had a problem winning these big time games against the best teams in the AFC. This very well could be the last game of this era of Ravens football, knowing that LB Ray Lewis is retiring when this season is over with, and Baltimore is a heavy underdog and is not expected to challenge. Click Here For Baltimore @ Denver NFL Playoffs Preview

AFC Championship Game
#4 Baltimore Ravens 28 @ #2 New England Patriots 13 (Click Here For Ravens @ Patriots Game Preview)

For the second straight year, the Ravens and the Patriots are going to be playing against each other with the Lamar Hunt Trophy on the line. The winner will move on to Super Bowl 47, while the loser will have a long offseason to figure out what went wrong. QB Tom Brady and his Patriots are looking for some payback after losing 31-30 at M&T Bank Stadium back in September in a game that was decided by a last-second field goal by K Justin Tucker. Baltimore though, still has some revenge on its mind as well from losing the AFC Championship Game last year in this very building. Remember that WR Lee Evans had what would have been the game-winning touchdown pass in his hands before dropping it, and there was no excuse for K Billy Cundiff to miss a 32-yard field goal that would have forced overtime. There is a ton of emotion that is going to go into this game. It could be LB Ray Lewis’ last game. It could send Brady to a sixth Super Bowl, which would tie an NFL record for all players and would break the record for the most starts for a quarterback in the Super Bowl. It could be the game that validates the career of QB Joe Flacco. Or it could be just another game where the Ravens end up falling short of the ultimate goal, further making them the choke artists of the league. This should be a great game in Foxboro on Sunday. Click Here For Baltimore @ New England NFL Playoffs Preview

Final NFL Playoff Picture (NFC Playoff Bracket)
1: Atlanta Falcons (13-3)
2: San Francisco 49ers (11-4-1)
3: Green Bay Packers (11-5)
4: Washington Redskins (10-6)
5: Seattle Seahawks (11-5)
6: Minnesota Vikings (10-6)

NFC Playoff Schedule

NFC Wild Card Round
#5 Seattle Seahawks 24 @ #4 Washington Redskins 14 (Click Here For Seahawks @ Redskins Game Preview)
#6 Minnesota Vikings 10 @ #3 Green Bay Packers 24 (Click Here For Vikings @ Packers Game Preview)

The NFC side of the playoffs took its twists and turns in Week 17, but matters are all set at this point. For the third time this season, and for the third time since the start of December, the Green Bay Packers and the Minnesota Vikings are going to play against each other in the 3/6 game. RB Adrian Peterson will once again be the focal point, as he rushed for over 400 yards in two games against the Pack this year. Green Bay won the NFC North, earning the right to host this game, but it has to be smarting after losing last week at the Metrodome. The win put Minnesota into the second season and kept Green Bay from getting a first round bye. It’s a total mismatch between QB Aaron Rodgers and QB Christian Ponder, but these two teams played two great games against each other this year that could have gone either way. Click Here For Minnesota vs. Green Bay NFL Playoffs Preview

The Washington Redskins ended up earning the final playoff spot of the year by beating the Dallas Cowboys in the final Sunday Night Football game of the year, and now, they are going to reap the rewards. That was their seventh straight victory to end the season, and they needed that to win the NFC East. QB Robert Griffin III is clearly put together one of the best seasons that a rookie quarterback has ever had, but the man that he is going to be facing off against in this one, QB Russell Wilson threw for the most touchdowns in a single season for a rookie with 26. Wilson and the Seattle Seahawks really did a remarkable job this year, especially playing at home, where they ran the table and went 8-0. The problem? They went just 3-5 on the road, and they are going to have to win three more games on the road just to get to the Super Bowl. These two teams have played four straight games in Seattle in their meetings, including last year when the Skins pulled the upset. Click Here For Seattle vs. Washington NFL Playoffs Preview

The Atlanta Falcons have won the top seed in the NFC, and they are going to be waiting for the worst seed left remaining in the second season. Clear on the opposite coast, the San Francisco 49ers will be around to take on most likely the Packers, or the winner of the Seahawks/Redskins game.

NFC Divisional Round
#3 Green Bay Packers 31 @ #2 San Francisco 49ers 45 (Click Here For Packers @ 49ers Game Preview)
#5 Seattle Seahawks @ #1 Atlanta Falcons (Click Here For Seahawks @ Falcons Game Preview)

The second round of the playoffs will open up when the Packers and the 49ers do battle. This is a rematch of a Week 1 game that went the way of the Niners. However, QB Alex Smith was the quarterback in that one, and QB Colin Kaepernick is now the man calling the shots. The Packers were forced to throw the ball all game long, as they had to play the whole game from behind. This time around though, both of these teams are coming into the proceedings hot with a lot more on the line. There is going to be no degree of sneaking up on anyone. The winner of this one knows that it is going to have a good chance of hosting the NFC Championship Game, so the stakes are going to be even higher than they normally would be for a playoff game this early in the postseason. Click Here For Green Bay vs. San Francisco NFL Playoffs Preview

A Seattle team that is as hot as could be is going to take on an Atlanta team that has a god awful playoff history to start Sunday’s NFL playoffs action. The Seahawks have the second longest winning streak in the conference right now at six, and they have covered five of those six. The Falcons need a win in the playoffs more than any other team in the second saeson. They haven’t won a game since 2004 in the postseason, and QB Matt Ryan has a terrible history here in the playoffs. Seattle is the only team that went on the road and won a game in the playoffs in the first round, and it is going to have to fly from Seattle to DC back to Seattle and then to Atlanta for this one. It should be a very interesting game for sure, and it is expected to be the closest of the four playoff games in the Divisional Round of the playoffs Click Here For Seattle vs. Atlanta NFL Playoffs Preview

NFC Championship Game
#2 San Francisco 49ers 28 @ #1 Atlanta Falcons 24 (Click Here For 49ers @ Falcons Game Preview)

The 2013 NFC Championship Game should be a doozy this week. There aren’t many neutral NFL fans that would say that the Falcons are the better of the two teams that are going to be on the field. They do have home field advantage though, and that could go a long way, especially since the 49ers are playing a long way away from home. San Francisco has to get over the fact that it blew it in the NFC title game a campaign ago at home against the New York Giants, but this would be the way to get some sweet revenge. QB Colin Kaepernick put together one of the biggest games that a quarterback has ever had in a postseason game, especially for a quarterback that was making his postseason debut. That was at home, though. This one is on the road, and it comes in a hostile environment. The Falcons put together 30 minutes of championship football and 30 minutes of suspect football against the Seahawks. If we see the Falcons that played the first half against Seattle for the full 60 minutes, they’ll be in the Super Bowl. If we see the Falcons that played the second half against Seattle, this could be a brutal showing in the Georgia Dome, and all of the haters will be right back on the case of Head Coach Mike Smith and QB Matt Ryan. Click Here For San Francisco vs. Atlanta NFL Playoffs Preview

Super Bowl Betting Trends: Super Bowl XLV Cheat Sheet

January 30th, 2011 by Adam Markowitz (Bankroll Sports Columnist) | Posted in NFL Football   Comments Off on Super Bowl Betting Trends: Super Bowl XLV Cheat Sheet
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Making Superbowl picks are our specialty here at Bankroll Sports, and in order to give you a helping hand on the upcoming duel in the Super Bowl, we’re breaking down some of the most notable Super Bowl trends for the duels left in the second season!

Sunday, February 6th, 6:35 ET: Green Bay Packers vs. Pittsburgh Steelers
NFL Trends of Note
The Packers are…
-5-1 ATS in their L/6 games against teams with a winning record
-5-1 ATS in their L/6 games overall
-19-6-1 ATS in their L/26 games following games in which they hold their foes to two TDs or fewer
-6-2 ATS in their L/8 games as favorites
-8-3-1 ATS in their L/12 games played on field turf
-12-5-1 ATS in their L/18 games following an ATS win
-2-5 ATS in their L/7 playoff games as favorites

The Steelers are…
-4-0 ATS in their L/4 games overall
-9-1 ATS in their L/10 playoff games
-5-1 ATS in their L/6 games following an SU victory
-4-1 ATS in their L/5 games following an ATS victory
-16-5-1 ATS in their L/22 games as underdogs of three points or fewer
-34-16-1 ATS in their L/51 games as underdogs overall

The over is…
-4-0 in Pittsburgh’s L/4 games following an ATS victory
-4-0 in Pittsburgh’s L/4 games following an SU victory
-5-1 in Pittsburgh’s L/6 playoff games as an underdog
-4-1 in Pittsburgh’s L/5 games overall
-16-5 in Pittsburgh’s L/21 playoff games

The under is…
-4-0 in Pittsburgh’s L/4 games as an underdog
-6-1 in Green Bay’s L/7 games following an SU victory
-8-3 in Green Bay’s L/11 games following an ATS victory
-5-2 in Green Bay’s L/7 games as a favorite of three points or fewer
-9-4 in Green Bay’s L/13 games against teams with a winning record
-5-2 in Green Bay’s L/7 games played on field turf

Series History
These are, without a shadow of a doubt, the two most storied franchises in the history of the NFL. Between them, there are 20 championships, nine of which are Superbowl betting victories. The two teams don’t generally play all that often, but they did last year, and Pittsburgh came away with a 37-36 triumph at home at Heinz Field. The Steelers have had the upper hand on the Pack for quite some time as well. Dating back to 1980, these two teams have met eight times, with Pittsburgh going 6-2 SU and 4-4 ATS. Though the last game between them featured 73 points, there hasn’t been another game between them that has had more than 47, and three of the L/6 clashes have featured 30 points or fewer.

NFL Football Picks: Championship Weekend Props 1/23/11

January 23rd, 2011 by Adam Markowitz (Bankroll Sports Columnist) | Posted in NFL Football   Comments Off on NFL Football Picks: Championship Weekend Props 1/23/11
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There are only three games left in the entire NFL betting campaign, but before we get ready to make our Super Bowl XLV picks, we have some unfinished business to tend to in the AFC and NFC Championship Games. Check out our NFL prop picks for two of the biggest games of the entire season!

Will There Be a Score in the First 6.5 Minutes of the Game Bears/Packers Game?
We know that the Chicago offense got off to a great start last week against the Seattle Seahawks, but we also have to remember that these two teams have played some absolutely sparkling defense along the way as well. If the Bears get the ball first, there is a decent chance that a scoring drive might take over 6.5 minutes even if it does happen on the opening sequence, believe it or not. We’re believers that points could be at a premium on Sunday, and though that might not necessarily translate into a lower scoring game, we’ll take our chances that the first score doesn’t occur early on. Bank on there being No Score in the First 6.5 Minutes (-110 at Hollywood Sportsbook) between the Bears and the Packers.

Will There Be a Safety in Both Championship Games?
This season, including the playoffs, there have only been 13 safeties. That’s right. Over the course of all of those games in the NFL betting schedule, 264 of them, there have only been 13 safeties. That’s one safety in every 4.9% of games played in the league this year. In 2009, there were only 14 safeties, including the playoffs. Let’s do some simple math here, shall we? Over the last 531 games in the NFL, there have been 27 safeties, or one safety in approximately 20 games (5.08%). If we can hit this prop at -1000 in 94.92% of our games, we’re going to be worth a ton of money. Over 1,000 games, at this price, if we were to bet $1,000 to win $100, we would have a profit of $4,412. Not a bad haul, eh? No Safety in the NFC Championship Game, and No Safety in the AFC Championship Game (-1000 Each Bet at Hollywood Sportsbook).

Aaron Rodgers Over/Under 3.5 Rushing Attempts
Rodgers certainly hasn’t been afraid to tuck it and run when he has to this season, as he was one of the best running options for a team that really didn’t have all that much to work with in that department in 2010. The former Cal Golden Bear took off 64 times this year and accounted for 356 yards in the regular season, but what impressed us the most is the fact that he had seven carries in the 10-3 win over these Bears in Week 17. Rodgers hasn’t gotten to this point yet in the playoffs, as he only has five carries in two games, but we tend to believe that this will be an exception, as the Chicago defense is a lot more prone to sending a lot of men after the quarterback, which could cause Rodgers to have to escape more often than he really wants to. He’ll go Over 3.5 Rushing Attempts (-120 at Hollywood Sportsbook) against the Colts.

Matt Forte Over/Under 16.5 Yards on Longest Carry
It’s only one stroke of luck and one stroke of genius that will get Forte to this type of a number. We’ve seen that the Bears have stayed committed to Forte this season when they have had the chance to, and over the course of the last four games, he has at least 15 carries in all four outings and has averaged 19 carries per game. Forte isn’t really the most explosive runner in the world, but he has had a ton of opportunities, especially when he gets the ball in open space, to be able to take advantage and pick up some huge gainers. Over the course of the second half of the season, Chicago’s top running back has had a long carry of at least 17 yards six times, and we tend to believe that that will continue on Sunday. Forte’s longest carry will be Over 16.5 Yards (-115 at Hollywood Sportsbook).

Total Sacks in the AFC Championship Game
We’re a tad surprised to see Hollywood hang a ‘5’ in this game instead of a ‘5.5’ due to the fact that last week, there were 11 sacks in the duel between the Steelers and the Baltimore Ravens. We know that there are a ton of problems right now for the Steelers up front, and the Jets have really yet to show their best pass rush in these playoffs to date. After getting after QB Tom Brady all week last week, we have no doubt that New York can get to QB Ben Roethlisberger in this one, and when it does, it is going to make those opportunities pay off. There is no way, with these two ferocious defenses, that there aren’t Over 5 Sacks (-130 at Hollywood Sportsbook) significantly more often than not.

LaDainian Tomlinson Over/Under 18.5 Receiving Yards
You know that LT is going to get his touches in this game, and you know that the Pittsburgh defense is going to do what it can to make sure that he doesn’t have the same 49 yards on 11 carries that he had when these two squads met last month. We know that Tomlinson hasn’t been used all that much as a receiver of late, but there is a point that QB Mark Sanchez is going to have to realize that he doesn’t have the time to work the ball up the field against this Pittsburgh defense. Last week, it was TE Todd Heap for the Ravens that made all of those catches over the middle of the field, and it is clear that Tomlinson is going to be asked to fill that role as a check down option at times when Sanchez is in trouble. LT will go Over 18.5 Receiving Yards (-115 at Hollywood Sportsbook) against the Pittsburgh defense.

Heath Miller Over/Under 3.5 Receptions
We’ve already talked just a tad about inside routes with Heap and the Steelers defense, but what about the New York ‘D’? This unit really doesn’t give up much of anything to anyone, but if there is a bit of a weakness, it is against teams that really utilize either tight ends or other receiving options to sit down in the middle of the field. Last week, Brady was really forced to do nothing but try to throw balls underneath to WR Deion Branch and TE Rob Gronkowski, while the week before, the Colts did the exact same thing with TE Jacob Tamme. Now, enter Heath Miller, who has had at least four catches in three straight games and is proving to be a great safety net for Roethlisberger when he gets himself out of some trouble in the pocket. Big Ben loves using his big time tight end, as Miller often gets at least a half dozen looks per game. He’s a big play threat up the seams and could be in for a lot of looks on Sunday, especially knowing that WR Mike Wallace and his friends are going to be worked a ton up the sides of the field. This is the man in the middle that should have a great day. Miller will go Over 3.5 Receptions (-115 at Hollywood Sportsbook) against the New York ‘D’.

Super Bowl Betting Trends: AFC & NFC Championship Cheat Sheet

January 20th, 2011 by Adam Markowitz (Bankroll Sports Columnist) | Posted in NFL Football   1 Comment »
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Making Superbowl picks are our specialty here at Bankroll Sports, and in order to give you a helping hand on the upcoming duels in the AFC and NFC Championship Games, we’re breaking down some of the most notable Super Bowl trends for the duels left in the second season!

Sunday, January 23rd, 3:00 ET: Green Bay Packers @ Chicago Bears
NFL Trends of Note
The Packers are…
-5-1 ATS in their L/6 games on grass
-4-1 ATS in their L/5 on the road against teams with winning home records
-5-2 ATS in their L/7 as favorites
-5-2 ATS in their L/7 road games
-7-3 ATS in their L/10 against teams from the NFC
-11-5-1 ATS in their L/17 following an ATS victory
-1-5 ATS in their L/6 playoff games as a favorite
-9-3 ATS in their L/12 visits to Soldier Field

The Bears are…
-4-0 ATS in their L/4 games in January
-6-1 ATS in their L/7 against teams with a winning record
-4-1 ATS in their L/5 against the NFC North
-2-9 ATS in their L/11 as underdogs of between 3.5 and 10 points
-5-2 ATS in their L/7 following an SU victory
-4-1 ATS in their L/5 home games against teams with a winning road record
-6-1 ATS in their L/7 played on grass

The over is…
-4-1 in Green Bay’s L/5 playoff games
-5-2 in Green Bay’s L/7 road playoff games
-16-7 in Green Bay’s L/23 games as favorites of between 3.5 and 10 points
-4-0 in Chicago’s L/4 home games
-9-1 in Chicago’s L/10 games played in January
-5-1 in Chicago’s L/6 playoff games
-4-1 in Chicago’s L/5 home games against teams with a winning road record

The under is…
-5-0 in Green Bay’s L/5 games as road favorites
-6-2 in Green Bay’s L/8 against the NFC North
-5-2 in Green Bay’s L/7 road games against teams with winning home records
-8-2 in Green Bay’s L/10 road games
-18-7-1 in Chicago’s L/26 games as underdogs of between 3.5 and 10 points
-61-30-2 in Chicago’s L/93 games as underdogs overall
-6-0 in the L/6 meetings between Green Bay and Chicago
-5-1 in the L/6 meetings of Green Bay and Chicago at Soldier Field

Series History
You aren’t going to find two teams that really hate each other more than this, as these two teams have a history that is very, very deep. The Bears did pick up the victory against the NFL odds in both meetings this year with the Packers, but those were the first two covers in this series for the men from the Windy City since December 2007, a stretch of four straight for the Pack. Since 2004, these two teams have been relatively split, as Chicago is 8-6 SU and 7-6-1 ATS. However, the previous six meetings all belonged to Green Bay both SU and ATS. The Packers just love coming to Soldier Field. Since 1994, they are 14-4 SU and 13-5 ATS. The only time that these two met in the month of January here in the Windy City was in 2005, a 31-14 win for the visiting Packers.

Sunday, January 23rd, 6:30 ET: New York Jets @ Pittsburgh Steelers
NFL Trends of Note
The Jets are…
-4-0 ATS in their L/4 against the AFC
-6-1 ATS in their L/7 played in January
-4-1 ATS in their L/5 playoff games
-12-4 ATS in their L/16 played on the road
-8-3 ATS in their L/11 as underdogs
-10-4 ATS in their L/14 as underdogs of between 3.5 and 10 points
-14-6 ATS in their L/20 as road underdogs
-9-4 ATS in their L/13 against teams with a winning record
-4-1 ATS in their L/5 meetings with the Steelers

The Steelers are…
-9-0 ATS in their L/9 played in January
-5-0 ATS in their L/5 home playoff games
-8-1 ATS in their L/9 playoff games overall
-5-1 ATS in their L/6 overall
-5-1 ATS in their L/6 playoff games as favorites
-4-1 ATS in their L/5 home games
-4-1 ATS in their L/5 as home favorites
-4-1 ATS in their L/5 as favorites of between 3.5 and 10 points in the playoffs
-22-9 ATS in their L/31 home games as favorites of between 3.5 and 10 points

The over is…
-4-0 in New York’s L/4 games as a road underdog of 3.5 to 10 points
-5-0 in New York’s L/5 games on grass
-10-1 in New York’s L/11 road games
-7-1 in New York’s L/8 games as an underdog
-8-2 in New York’s L/10 games in January
-8-2 in New York’s L/10 games following an ATS victory
-9-3 in New York’s L/12 games following an SU win
-19-7-1 in New York’s L/27 games against the AFC
-5-2 in New York’s L/7 playoff games
-5-0 in Pittsburgh’s L/5 AFC Championship Games
-4-0 in Pittsburgh’s L/4 playoff games as favorites
-10-1 in Pittsburgh’s L/11 home playoff games
-19-2 in Pittsburgh’s L/21 games played in January
-14-2 in Pittsburgh’s L/16 playoff games
-20-7-1 in Pittsburgh’s L/28 home games against teams with a winning road record
-51-25-3 in Pittsburgh’s L/79 games as a home favorite

The under is…
-5-2 in the L/7 meetings in this series

Series History
Dating back to 1981, there are only 15 meetings between the Jets and the Steelers, and this is bound to be yet another epic clash. The only playoff meeting in the bunch came in 2005, when New York had every chance in the world to pull off the upset as 9.5 point underdogs, but kick after kick kept either coming up short or sailing wide to give the Steelers a chance. Eventually, they came up with a 20-17 triumph in OT. The Jets did win the one meeting this year between these teams, and it came here at Heinz Field. The 22-17 win was the victory that really started this great run of games for the Jets, who are now in their second straight AFC Championship Game. New York has covered three straight in this series, but the Steelers are 11-4 ATS since 1981.

AFC Championship Game Picks: New York Jets @ Pittsburgh Steelers

January 17th, 2011 by Adam Markowitz (Bankroll Sports Columnist) | Posted in NFL Football   2 Comments »
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There’s only one game left for all of the marbles in the AFC this year, as the Pittsburgh Steelers and New York Jets will be vying for the last spot in Super Bowl XLV on Sunday night. These two teams play some brutal football, and they are sure to put on a real defensive showcase when they collide in the Steel City. The oddsmakers have given the host Steelers the 3.5 point nod in this one, but is it justified? These three keys to the game should be used to sort out your AFC Championship Game picks for 2011.

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Key #1: Pressuring Big Ben
Here’s the interesting thing about this game and this key in particular. The Jets absolutely cannot beat the Steelers if they don’t figure out how to get in the face of QB Ben Roethlisberger. This doesn’t mean that they need to really get their stats like they did against QB Tom Brady when they brought him down five times on Sunday, but they do need to at least get in Big Ben’s throwing lanes and cause him to take some extra hits and spend some more time in the pocket. For Pittsburgh, it probably isn’t vital that the O-Line keeps men away from Roethlisberger due to the fact that he is a huge man and can shake some tackles. However, no one wants to see their quarterback take a dozen or more shots on the day like the Jets are planning for Pittsburgh’s signal caller in this one. The depth problem for Pittsburgh at offensive tackle has been well documented, as this team is already three deep right now into its depth chart from the start of the year at that position, and there are absolutely no more injuries that can be afforded. The interior line is in fine shape, and this is where New York brings the majority of its pressure, but the whole unit of five, six, or even seven blockers on some plays, really has to be broken down by the Jets if they hope to survive in the Steel City.

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Pittsburgh Steelers -3.5
Over/Under 38
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Key #2: Sanchez and company have to take care of the football
It really seems like the “Duh” statement of the year to think that the Jets have to keep a hold of the football in order to beat the Steelers, but this is exactly what the problem was for the Baltimore Ravens last week. If RB Ray Rice doesn’t fumble that screen pass or if QB Joe Flacco doesn’t fumble that snap or make that ill advised throw… if any of those things don’t happen, this game is likely being played in Baltimore and not in Pittsburgh. The Jets have just as much firepower on offense as Baltimore does, but they don’t have nearly as much confidence in QB Mark Sanchez as the Ravens do in QB Joe Flacco. However, on Sunday against the New England Patriots, “The Sanchise” was on fire, as he threw three TD passes and was not picked off. In fact, the Jets didn’t turn the ball over once on the day, something that is amazing against a defense that led the league in picks on the campaign. It seems awfully fundamental to think about, but it really is this simple. If the Jets turn the ball over more than once in this one, they’re in a lot of trouble. The Steelers need to make sure that they get the job done and get the ball back in the hands of their offense, where the real damage can be done. Remember when these two teams met the first time that S Troy Polamalu didn’t play. He’s a real difference maker in the center of this defense, and he could be a turnover forcing machine come Sunday.

Key #3: Rashard Mendenhall has to be big
If there’s one player for the Steelers that really has to have an impact game on Sunday, it is RB Rashard Mendenhall. He is the man that is going to keep the pressure off of Big Ben and the passing game, and he is also the one that can frustrate this defense to no end if he can keep the ball moving on the ground and keep that clock going. Mendenhall rushed for 100 yards on 19 carries the first time around when these teams met, proving that New York indeed had a beatable defense this year on the ground. This was still a unit that ranked No. 2 in the AFC and No. 3 in the league at just 90.1 yards per game this year, and the Jets did a fantastic job holding down the Pats, as neither RB Danny Woodhead nor RB BenJarvus Green-Ellis reached the 50 yard barrier on the day on Sunday. When Mendenhall reaches the 100+ yard barrier, the Steelers generally win, though obviously this was a huge exception this year. Pittsburgh was 5-0 when Mendenhall reached 100+ yards in his career prior to this point. You can bet that he is going to get his carries like he did last week against Baltimore, and when push comes to shove, having him make a big impact on this game might be the difference between going to the Super Bowl and watching it on TV for the men from the Steel City.

NFC Championship Picks: Green Bay Packers vs. Chicago Bears Analysis

January 16th, 2011 by Adam Markowitz (Bankroll Sports Columnist) | Posted in NFL Football   Comments Off on NFC Championship Picks: Green Bay Packers vs. Chicago Bears Analysis

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The first spot in Super Bowl XLV will be handed out on Sunday, January 23rd at Soldier Field in Chicago, IL, as the Chicago Bears will take on the Green Bay Packers. These two teams know all about each other, having already played two games this season, with the home team winning both duels. The Bears covered both sets of NFL odds in these divisional clashes, and the oddsmakers still have them as three point underdogs on Sunday. Which team will beat the NFC Championship odds? Check out these three keys to the game that should be the deciding factors.

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Key #1: The Bears need to play defense like they did in the first half against Seattle and not in the second half
We know that the NFC Divisional Round duel against the Seattle Seahawks was really a tale of two halves for the Bears, as they were completing dominating for about two and a half quarters before pulling up lame down the stretch and nearly blowing the cover. However, this is a unit that has just been downright nasty all season long, allowing just 90.1 yards per game on the ground in the regular season. Chicago only allowed 34 yards on 12 carries in its first postseason tussle as well. The Bears did allow 331.5 yards per game in the regular season to these Packers, but we really know better. A lot of the yards for QB Aaron Rodgers were created from just a few big plays, but they ultimately were not parlayed into all that many points. Keeping this team to just 27 points in two games is definitely a feat to be proud of. There were also two turnovers forced by the men from the Windy City in this one, which is a problem that the Packers have had at times over the course of this season. They’ve done a great job of protecting the pigskin thus far in the second season, especially against the Falcons when they had just one blown fumble, and the three turnovers that they have had haven’t really come back to bite them.

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Chicago Bears +3
Over/Under 44
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Key #2: Alright Jay Cutler… What’ve you got?
This isn’t necessarily a key that will cause Chicago to win this game, but it certainly could be a key to losing it. Cutler has been much maligned since coming to the Windy City, as he has thrown 42 picks in two years after throwing for just 37 picks in two and a half years with the Denver Broncos. The media in the Midway has been all over his case about not protecting the football and not coming up big in big games, and there are certainly still some reasons to believe that this is the case after winning his first playoff game on Sunday. Cutler did only go 15-of-28 on the day, a completion percent of just 53.6 percent, and this came against a defense that was dreadful against the pass all year long. The former Vanderbilt Commodore did toss three picks in two games against Green Bay in the regular season, and he ended the season with 16 boo boos. Enter the Packers ‘D’. This unit had 24 picks in the regular season, the most in the NFC and just one behind the New England Patriots for the league lead. We always thought that you wouldn’t find a better ball hawk in the game than DB Charles Woodson, but we were wrong. DB Tramon Williams has developed a tremendous nose for the ball, and he had the amazing pick six that sunk the Atlanta Falcons last Saturday. If Cutler gets careless with the football, he will throw picks to this team, and if he does that, the Bears don’t stand a chance.

Key #3: The battle at the line of scrimmage
You can bet that line play is going to be preached on both sides of the football this week. The Packers probably think they can get away with a little more leniency on this facet of the game because they are so talented elsewhere, but the team that wins this battle is most likely going to be the one that wins this game. Neither offensive line was that sharp all year, as neither opened up that many holes for the running game. Even in the divisional round games, the Bears averaged just 3.91 yards per carry (and that includes a 21 yard scamper by Cutler), while the Packers only averaged 3.10 yards per carry. Chicago’s OL is going to have to find a way to stop a Green Bay front that had five sacks of QB Matt Ryan on Saturday night, two of which came from one of the biggest sack masters in the league, LB Clay Matthews. The Packers are going to have to contend with a front seven that just has a mean streak in it, and though the Bears did really have the individual stats this year that some of the players on Green Bay’s ‘D’ did, they had the second best defensive front in terms of rushing this year in the league at just 90.1 yards per game.