Posts Tagged ‘NFL props’

Atlanta Falcons vs. New Orleans Saints NFL Prop Picks (12/26/11)

December 26th, 2011 by Adam Markowitz (Bankroll Sports Head Columnist) | Posted in NFL Football  
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Our NFL prop picks continue with our Monday Night Football picks and our Atlanta Falcons vs. New Orleans Saints prop picks. Be sure to check out our NFL prop picks for the big duel on Monday, courtesy of BetOnline Sportsbook.

Michael Turner, Jacquizz Rodgers, and Jason Snelling Over/Under 128.5 Rushing + Receiving Yards
Playing ‘unders’ in NFL props like this one can be dangerous, as we have a slew of players that are involved, which really removes the potential easy out of an early injury. The first time that these two teams met, Turner and Rodgers alone had 126 yards on the ground and another 43 as receivers, and that really doesn’t bode well for the ‘under’ in this one. However, we have to look at the great job that New Orleans has really done this year against backfield groupings like this one. The team is averaging allowing just 109.9 rushing yards per game, and that is in a division in which th e Carolina Panthers and Tampa Bay Buccaneers run the snot out of the football. Sure, dump off passes might be the death of us in this one, but we are definitely going to take our chances that the power of the New Orleans defense is going to be enough to get the job done in this very crucial game. Michael Turner, Jacquizz Rodgers, and Jason Snelling Under 128.5 Rushing + Receiving Yards (-115 at BetOnline Sportsbook)

Darren Sproles Over/Under 83.5 Rushing + Receiving Yards
Sproles really is a one of a kind back in this league, as he does just about everything. Sure, he is only run between the tackles a handful of times per game, but he is capable of being a 100+ yard receiver as well in any game, and any time he touches the football, it could go a long, long way. Sproles has 496 yards on the ground and 659 more as a receiver, both of which are career highs with two games to play. In the first meeting, he was really kept under wraps, as he rushed for just one yard and had four catches for two yards. However, that isn’t going to stop him by any means, as he is surely going to have a heck of a lot better day than that. He will probably get at least seven or eight targets as a receiver, and if he can catch just four or five of them, it could result in a slew of yards. We just don’t like the Atlanta defense and its capability of slowing down Sproles yet again in this game. When push comes to shove, at home, Sproles is a different back, and he is going to show it on Monday. Darren Sproles Over 83.5 Rushing + Receiving Yards (-115 at BetOnline Sportsbook).

Drew Brees Over/Under 2.5 TD Passes
Asking a quarterback to throw for three TDs in a game is always a tall task, but we think that this is going to be one of these days in which Brees puts his name back in the hat for the MVP award once and for all. Sure, he isn’t going to catch QB Aaron Rodgers for the most passing touchdowns in the league at 45 since he “only” has 37 scores, but he is going to become the first quarterback of the season to throw for at least 5,000 yards, and he is probably going to break QB Dan Marino’s record for most passing yards in a season on this night. Brees is 220 yards shy of becoming the first man to ever throw for 5,000 yards in a season twice in his career, and he needs another 83 yards to break Marino’s record. We think that he will do it, and do it with flying colors, and if he needs to play in Week 17, we think that he could even come up near the 5,500 yard mark to totally smash the record to bits and pieces as well. With 16 TDs and no picks over the course of his last five games, Brees is just rolling right now, and we don’t see how he isn’t going to throw for at least three TDs at least half the time in this situation. Remember that he already has three or more scores in seven of his 14 games this year, including in five of his six played here at the Louisiana Superdome. Drew Brees Over 2.5 TD Passes (+105 at BetOnline Sportsbook).

2011 NFL Prop Picks – Week 16 Fantasy Football Sleepers

December 23rd, 2011 by Adam Markowitz (Bankroll Sports Head Columnist) | Posted in NFL Football  
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Playing for your fantasy football league championship? Check out our fantasy football sleepers for Week 16, including some of our best fantasy football picks.

Rex Grossman vs. Minnesota Vikings
Grossman has been effective over the course of the last few weeks, putting up at least 14 fantasy points in three of his last five games. Now, the former Florida Gator is going against a Minnesota defense which is absolutely terrible against the pass. The rushing game for Washington just hasn’t been all that great, and because of that, there has to be a thought that the passing game is going to really be in for a good effort. There aren’t many reasons to care about this game, but this is a big reason. Grossman could surprisingly be one of the more effective fantasy football quarterbacks in championship weekend.

Brandon Marshall vs. New England Patriots
The Dolphins are playing their Super Bowl this week against the Patriots on the road, and we really think that they are going to put up a heck of a fight. New England’s secondary is still suspect at best, while Miami’s offense has been doing better and better of late, and Marshall has caught a TD in three of the last four weeks. He’s getting a ton of looks as well, and though he only has had a total of 11 receptions over the course of the last three weeks, a lot of looks are going deep. Marshall has had 12 catches for 236 yards in his last two games against the Pats, and we absolutely feel as though he is in for a big time game.

Jeremy Shockey vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers
The Panthers had a big time game last week against the Houston Texans, and now, they are going to try to stretch their winning streak in a game in which they really should win against the Bucs. Shockey has found the end zone in two straight games, and he and TE Greg Olsen both really make great plays this week against a Tampa Bay defense which ranks No. 22 in the league against tight ends. Shockey doesn’t quite get the same types of targets that Olsen does, but with seven red zone targets, most of which have come in the last month and a half or so, we think that this is a great play if you’re short on tight ends.

CJ Spiller vs. Denver Broncos
The Patriots really got the job done against the Broncos last week in part to their ground game, which isn’t normally all that imposing. That being said, Spiller had a mammoth game this past week, coming up with a whopping 28 points in a game that really looked like it was had by the man on IR in this backfield, RB Fred Jackson. Spiller is only averaging right around a dozen carries per game in his starts with Jackson out of the fold, but he is really making the most of those carries, averaging well over six yards per tote. The Broncos are going to probably make this a pretty short game, but you can really make up the difference with Spiller by putting him in at wide receiver in most fantasy leagues.

2011 NFL Prop Picks – Week 15 Fantasy Football Sleepers

December 12th, 2011 by Adam Markowitz (Bankroll Sports Head Columnist) | Posted in NFL Football  
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We’re down to the nitty-gritty of the fantasy football season, and we are set to head into the playoffs. Find yourself in a bind? Check out these fantasy football sleepers for Week 15!

Heath Miller vs. San Francisco 49ers
The Niners still haven’t allowed a rushing touchdown this year, and it is completely up in the air whether QB Ben Roethlisberger is going to give it a go or not on Monday Night Football. That doesn’t mean that all of a sudden, Pittsburgh isn’t going to score. It’ll be tough to get the ball up the field to these speedy receivers against a great San Fran secondary, but the Steelers might be able to work the ball to Miller in the slot. Miller only has 56 points so far this season in standard ESPN.com fantasy leagues, but he really could be in line for a decent day, especially near the red zone if RB Rashard Mendenhall can’t find any holes to take advantage of. This is a sneaky play for a man that you could probably find on the waiver wire.

Sammy Morris vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Before you ask who Sammy Morris is and what he is doing in this article, we’ll answer those questions for you. He might be the back that is getting the goal line carries this week against a rush defense that ranks dead last in the game against fantasy backs this year. The Cowboys signed Morris on Tuesday, but with both RBs Phillip Tanner and DeMarco Murray going on IR in recent weeks, Jerry Jones had to do something to bolster his team’s running game. RB Felix Jones isn’t anywhere near a between the tackles back, and at 6’2″, 200 lbs, we very well could see some action for Morris straight off of the streets, a la Kevin Smith a few weeks ago for the Lions. Don’t say that we didn’t warn you, especially against a Tampa Bay team that is turning the ball over a ton and can’t seem to get out of its own way offensively this year.

Santana Moss vs. New York Giants
Last week, Moss had 11 targets, but he was only able to convert on three of those. That being said, he did have 81 yards and a TD, and now, he is going against a defense which ranks No. 31 against fantasy wide receivers this year in that of the Giants. New York just doesn’t have a great secondary, and if you want proof of that, just check the 76 yards that Moss had the first time that these two teams met in Week 1. It seems as though Moss is getting back into the groove again after missing a month injured, and he could be in line for another big time day for Washington, as it tries to pull off the upset of the G-Men to ruin their playoff chances.

Arizona Cardinals D/ST vs. Cleveland Browns
In spite of the fact that the Browns have a hard time putting points on the board, they really haven’t been all that bad about turning the ball over and giving up sacks thanks to the short passing game of QB Colt McCoy. The Cardinals aren’t a turnover forcing machine either, but in this one, we know that we have a safe play that isn’t going to cost you points. We always have the off chance at a defensive TD, especially against an offense that is going to be likely featuring QB Seneca Wallace on Sunday, and we know that DB Patrick Peterson is always capable of returning a punt for a touchdown. The Cardinals have only had one week since Week 7 in which they have scored fewer than eight points. They’re not going to be a play that wins you your week, but if you’re in a bind and want a consistent option that you know will get you some point, Arizona’s defense and special teams could probably be had off of the waiver wires.

Dallas Cowboys vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers NFL Prop Picks 12/17/11

December 12th, 2011 by Adam Markowitz (Bankroll Sports Head Columnist) | Posted in NFL Football  
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Our NFL prop picks continue with our Thursday Night Football picks and our Dallas Cowboys vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers prop picks. Be sure to check out our NFL prop picks for the big duel on Thursday, courtesy of BetOnline Sportsbook.

Tony Romo -42.5 Passing Yards vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers QBs
Over the course of the last few weeks, Romo really hasn’t had as many passing yards as you would figure. He only passed the 300-yard mark for the first time since Week 6 last week against the Giants, and in that game, the Cowboys allowed 400 passing yards to QB Eli Manning. We know that QB Josh Freeman has been a nightmare in terms of turning the ball over, but that doesn’t mean that he is all of a sudden going to end up forgetting how to throw the pigskin down the field. For all of their problems this year, the Bucs QBs are averaging 241.7 passing yards per game between them. This is a bad secondary that they are going against, and we think that they can get into the 260s or 270s in this one. Don’t be shocked if Tampa Bay’s QBs win this prop outright. Getting 42.5 yards is a heck of a start. Tampa Bay QBs +42.5 Passing Yards (-110 at BetOnline Sportsbook)

LeGarrette Blount +24.5 Rushing/Receiving Yards vs. Felix Jones
Jones is going to be back as the starting back for the Cowboys, but that doesn’t mean that he is going to immediately step in and put up the numbers that RB DeMarco Murray did. Murray was clearly the superior back of the two for this offense, and we just don’t know whether we are only going to see Jones in the backfield or not. RB Phillip Tanner could get some looks, especially in short yardage situations. Though Blount has been splitting carries all over the place with backs like RB Kregg Lumpkin and RB Moises Madu, he has still generally been getting his looks. He has at least 18 carries in three of his last four games. The problem is that you’re not going to get a lot of “Wow!” plays from Blount, and he isn’t going to pitch into the passing game all that often. But if he can get himself 80 yards in this one on the ground, we see no reason why he wouldn’t be a big time winner. Again, we think that this NFL prop should be a heck of a lot closer to a pick ‘em than anything else. LeGarrette Blount +24.5 Rushing/Receiving Yards vs. Felix Jones (-115 at BetOnline Sportsbook).

Total Field Goals Over/Under 3.5
We know that K Dan Bailey has had some issues over the course of the last few weeks kicking important field goals at the gun, but we also know that he has just a slew of attempts this year. Bailey has made 31 of his 35 field goal attempts, and he has had at least two attempts in each of his last six games. The Dallas offense just has a tendency of reaching the red zone and just flopping. K Connor Barth, at times, is the only offense that the Bucs have. He hasn’t missed a kick since Week 6, and Head Coach Raheem Morris has a ton of confidence in him. We don’t think that there will be a shortage of yards in this game, but whether either team can execute in the red zone is a totally different story. Over 3.5 Field Goals (+145 at BetOnline Sportsbook).

Jacksonville Jaguars vs. Atlanta Falcons NFL Prop Picks 12/15/11

December 10th, 2011 by Adam Markowitz (Bankroll Sports Head Columnist) | Posted in NFL Football  
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Our NFL prop picks continue with our Thursday Night Football picks and our Jacksonville Jaguars vs. Atlanta Falcons prop picks. Be sure to check out our NFL prop picks for the big duel on Thursday, courtesy of BetOnline Sportsbook.

Blaine Gabbert Over/Under 17.5 Completions
Simply put, we just really don’t trust Gabbert all that much. In a game in which the Jags forced seven turnovers and had the ball for seemingly the entire game, the former Missouri Tiger only completed 19-of-33 passing. That Falcons aren’t going to hand the ball over nearly that much, and they promise to have a better pass rush and more heart than the Bucs did. Considering the fact that this game will have so many fewer opportunities for the Jaguars than last week’s win did, we have no choice but to go with Blaine Gabbert Under 17.5 Pass Completions (-110 at BetOnline Sportsbook)

Total Punts Over/Under 10.5
Jacksonville punted the ball away seven times last week in a game that it dominated. The team has already punted the ball 81 times this year, including a number of which have come via the three and out. If the Jaguars punt the ball another seven times in this game it’s going to be hard to see the punt total get to anything less than 11. The Falcons take a ton of chances and chuck the ball deep all the time, and Head Coach Mike Smith often puts the ball in the hands of his punter, who is averaging almost five punts per game. It seems like a winner to us, especially with both of these teams playing on short notice and Jacksonville playing its third game under its new coach in 11 days. Over 10.5 Punts (-115 at BetOnline Sportsbook).

Matt Ryan -50.5 Passing Yards vs. Blaine Gabbert
We have already spoken just a tad about Gabbert and how we really don’t trust the fact that he is going to complete even 15 passes in this game. That being said, we take a look at the numbers that Matty Ice has put up of late and make the assumption that he is going to get to at least 260 yards through the air. He has reached that mark in six straight games, and he is starting to take some more shots down the field. He has a full set of receivers with WR Roddy White and a now-healthy WR Julio Jones, and this offense is a heck of a lot more efficient with both healthy and in the lineup. Ryan already has 3,474 passing yards this year, and we think that he is going to fly past the 4,000 mark before season’s end, especially at the rate of which he is going right now. If Ryan gets to 272, that would mean that Gabbert would have to have a career high in passing yards in order to beat us. We just don’t see any way that that could happen. Barring an injury, this should be a slam dunk. Matt Ryan -50.5 Passing Yards vs. Blaine Gabbert (-115 at BetOnline Sportsbook).

2011 NFL Prop Picks – Week 14 Fantasy Football Sleepers

December 9th, 2011 by Adam Markowitz (Bankroll Sports Head Columnist) | Posted in NFL Football  
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Fantasy Football picks are here at Bankroll Sports this year, and we are going to try to make the most of your NFL props betting options at BoDog Sportsbook by giving you some of the best fantasy football sleepers in Week 14!

Nate Burleson vs. Minnesota Vikings
We took a stab at Burleson last week, and he had three catches for about 50 yards called back via offensive pass interference calls. That being said, his quarterback, Matt Stafford has been absolutely fantastic all season long, and with RB Kevin Smith still nursing that ankle injury, there doesn’t seem to be that much that the ground attack is going to do. Burleson has only found the end zone twice all year, but over these last four weeks, he has come up with seven, 12, four, and nine fantasy points. If you’re in a bind at wide receiver, this still is a good option to go to, especially in some deeper leagues or leagues which require that you use three wide receivers, or if you are looking for a decent flex play. Remember that the Vikes rank dead last in the league against opposing fantasy quarterbacks, and with all of the double and triple coverage being given to WR Calvin Johnson, Stafford has to be able to put the ball somewhere.

Santana Moss vs. New England Patriots
Moss was a middle round draft pick in most leagues this year, but he was probably dropped due to the fact that he was injured for over a month. That being said, he could probably be had on the waiver wires in most leagues, and he is going to make for a great start this week. Moss has been getting his targets over the course of the last two weeks, 13 of them to be exact, but they have only been parlayed into a total of six fantasy points. Last week, the Pats gave up just a slew of yards and points, especially late in the game against the Colts, and they have had a history of getting torched by opposing passing games. Wide receivers do more damage against the New England defense from a fantasy football perspective than any other defense in the league. Moss, in our eyes, is a must start that you can probably have for nothing via free agency.

Seattle Seahawks D/ST vs. St. Louis Rams
Last week, we made a huge mistake by recommending the Jaguars’ defense on Monday Night Football against the Chargers. This week, we vow to make amends. The Seahawks play better defense than they do offense, and this is as important of a game as they will play all season long against a terrible St. Louis team that just can’t get out of its own way. The Rams rank dead last in the league in scoring offense and in a number of offensive categories, and with the potential there for the weather to be iffy at CenturyLink Field, especially in front of that fantastic crowd that provides such a great home field advantage, Seattle makes for a great start. Over the last four week, the Seahawks have been good for 18, six, 20, and nine points, and they have been worth double digits five times this year.

Ricky Williams vs. Indianapolis Colts
Last week, we watched Williams get 13 fantasy points in his best day of the year against the Browns. It’s not like RB Ray Rice didn’t get his touches, as he rumbled for over 200 yards and a score. That being said, Williams also had 16 carries for 76 yards and a TD. Now comes an Indianapolis defense which can’t get out of its own way under most circumstances. Especially with this game at home, the possibility is there for a blowout, and just as we took a chance with RB Stevan Ridley last week with the Pats, we are confident that we can get double digits worth of points for the second straight week out of Williams after he didn’t do better than six in any game over the course of the first three months of the season.

St. Louis Rams vs. Seattle Seahawks NFL Prop Picks (12/12/11)

December 8th, 2011 by Adam Markowitz (Bankroll Sports Head Columnist) | Posted in NFL Football  
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Our NFL prop picks continue with our Monday Night Football picks and our St. Louis Rams vs. Seattle Seahawks prop picks. Be sure to check out our NFL prop picks for the big duel on Monday, courtesy of BetOnline Sportsbook.

Marshawn Lynch Over/Under 109.5 Rushing Yards
Enter: Beast Mode. Lynch defined the term “Beast Mode” last year when he ran right through the New Orleans Saints’ defense in the playoffs. Now, he has clearly kicked himself into some gear that hardly anyone has been able to stop. Lynch has found the end zone in eight straight games, and he has rumbled for at least 100 yards in three of his last four. Now, he’s going against a defense that is allowing over 150 yards per game on the ground and has been absolutely blistered by a number of the top running backs in the league. The saddest part is that the Rams haven’t played much of a schedule either, and now, their offense is probably not going to be spending all that much time on the field considering how brutal the quarterback situation has turned out to be. Lynch should come up near 30 carries as long as this one stays relatively close for at least three quarters. Marshawn Lynch Over 109.5 Rushing Yards (-115 at BetOnline Sportsbook)

Doug Baldwin Over/Under 3 Receptions
Baldwin was held down to just one catch for 21 yards in last week’s win over the Philadelphia Eagles, but he and QB Tarvaris Jackson have still built up a nice rapport. He has come up with at least three receptions in six of his last eight games, and in one of those games in which he didn’t end up getting to at least this number, he was knocked out with a concussion against the Baltimore Ravens. This is a bad defense all around that Baldwin is going to be going again, and we have to continue to stress the fact that Seattle is probably going to get a slew of chances with the football on this night. Baldwin should be the one that really capitalizes, especially with WR Sidney Rice out of the lineup. Doug Baldwin Over 3 Receptions (+105 at BetOnline Sportsbook).

James Laurinaitis Over/Under 7.5 Tackles
We don’t normally play on these props for tackles, because they are generally awfully random. However, in this case, we don’t really like the chances of Laurinaitis to reach this number. The former Ohio State Buckeye does have at least 10 tackles in three of his last six games, but he only has one other game in which he has more than 7.5 tackles on the season. Sure, Lynch is going to be running the ball right at him over and over again, but that doesn’t mean that Head Coach Pete Carroll isn’t very knowledgeable of the situation. Laurinaitis will have a decent game, but to ask him to come up with eight tackles is a heck of a lot of work to ask for out of a single linebacker. James Laurinaitis Under 7.5 Tackles (-115 at BetOnline Sportsbook).

Odds The Indianapolis Colts Go Winless 0-16 In 2011-12

December 3rd, 2011 by Adam Markowitz (Bankroll Sports Head Columnist) | Posted in NFL Football  
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As of this posting (12/3), the Indianapolis Colts are 0-11 and are five steps away from pulling off the dubious distinction of an 0-16 season. We take a moment to look at the odds the Colts finish 0-16 this year. They are +160 to pull off the bad feat, and we are set to take a look at their chances.

Indianapolis went from having one of the best passing games in the league to one of the worst. The team is averaging just 181.0 yards per game passing this year, No. 28 in the game. A lot of the problem is that QB Curtis Painter just isn’t ready to play in the NFL. He is only completing 54.3 percent of his passes with six scores against nine picks. He replaced the ineffective QB Kerry Collins, who led the team to three losses in a row before being benched and eventually put on injured reserve. Now, the ball will be turned over to QB Dan Orlovsky.

The problem with Orlovsky is that he has already had his hand in an 0-16 team, doing so with the Detroit Lions last decade. That being said, the former Connecticut Husky probably has the best chance of leading this team to a victory.

However, if you look at the schedule over the course of the next two weeks, you see a road game at the New England Patriots and a road game against the Baltimore Ravens in back to back weeks. We already know that the Pats and their potent passing game are three touchdown favorites, and especially if Indy doesn’t figure out how to cover this spread this week, it will probably be a three TD dog again next week when the Ravens come to town.

To wrap up the season, the Tennessee Titans and Houston Texans pay a visit to Lucas Oil Field, and the Colts will finish up with a road game at the Jacksonville Jaguars.

Let’s look at a brief comparison between these Colts and the 2008 Lions. Orlovsky led a passing game that averaged 206 passing yards and 83.3 rushing yards per game. These Colts are basically on par with that, and they are actually scoring fewer points per game. Those Lions were averaging 16.8 points per game against the 13.6 points per game for these Colts. Defensively, Indy has the worst defense in the league at 29.7 points per game. Those Lions averaged 32.3 points per game allowed, a mark that the Colts still have plenty of time to catch up to.

There are two more factors that we have to take into consideration. The first is that Head Coach Jim Caldwell could become a lame duck coach. There are grumblings that an 0-16 season would see Caldwell get fired, which might become important for his team to put together their biggest efforts.

The second, of course, is whether the Colts try to get QB Peyton Manning back on the field or not at the end of this season. Manning has been cleared to start to practice once again, though he hasn’t made any notions that he is going to get back on the field at any point. That being said, if he does get back on the field, we will see just how important he is to this team, and he could possibly lead the squad to a victory or two.