Posts Tagged ‘NFL prop picks’

Odds The Indianapolis Colts Go Winless 0-16 In 2011-12

December 3rd, 2011 by Adam Markowitz (Bankroll Sports Columnist) | Posted in NFL Football   Comments Off on Odds The Indianapolis Colts Go Winless 0-16 In 2011-12
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As of this posting (12/3), the Indianapolis Colts are 0-11 and are five steps away from pulling off the dubious distinction of an 0-16 season. We take a moment to look at the odds the Colts finish 0-16 this year. They are +160 to pull off the bad feat, and we are set to take a look at their chances.

Indianapolis went from having one of the best passing games in the league to one of the worst. The team is averaging just 181.0 yards per game passing this year, No. 28 in the game. A lot of the problem is that QB Curtis Painter just isn’t ready to play in the NFL. He is only completing 54.3 percent of his passes with six scores against nine picks. He replaced the ineffective QB Kerry Collins, who led the team to three losses in a row before being benched and eventually put on injured reserve. Now, the ball will be turned over to QB Dan Orlovsky.

The problem with Orlovsky is that he has already had his hand in an 0-16 team, doing so with the Detroit Lions last decade. That being said, the former Connecticut Husky probably has the best chance of leading this team to a victory.

However, if you look at the schedule over the course of the next two weeks, you see a road game at the New England Patriots and a road game against the Baltimore Ravens in back to back weeks. We already know that the Pats and their potent passing game are three touchdown favorites, and especially if Indy doesn’t figure out how to cover this spread this week, it will probably be a three TD dog again next week when the Ravens come to town.

To wrap up the season, the Tennessee Titans and Houston Texans pay a visit to Lucas Oil Field, and the Colts will finish up with a road game at the Jacksonville Jaguars.

Let’s look at a brief comparison between these Colts and the 2008 Lions. Orlovsky led a passing game that averaged 206 passing yards and 83.3 rushing yards per game. These Colts are basically on par with that, and they are actually scoring fewer points per game. Those Lions were averaging 16.8 points per game against the 13.6 points per game for these Colts. Defensively, Indy has the worst defense in the league at 29.7 points per game. Those Lions averaged 32.3 points per game allowed, a mark that the Colts still have plenty of time to catch up to.

There are two more factors that we have to take into consideration. The first is that Head Coach Jim Caldwell could become a lame duck coach. There are grumblings that an 0-16 season would see Caldwell get fired, which might become important for his team to put together their biggest efforts.

The second, of course, is whether the Colts try to get QB Peyton Manning back on the field or not at the end of this season. Manning has been cleared to start to practice once again, though he hasn’t made any notions that he is going to get back on the field at any point. That being said, if he does get back on the field, we will see just how important he is to this team, and he could possibly lead the squad to a victory or two.

2011 NFL Prop Picks – Week 13 Fantasy Football Sleepers

December 3rd, 2011 by Adam Markowitz (Bankroll Sports Columnist) | Posted in NFL Football   Comments Off on 2011 NFL Prop Picks – Week 13 Fantasy Football Sleepers
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Fantasy Football picks are here at Bankroll Sports this year, and we are going to try to make the most of your NFL props betting options at BoDog Sportsbook by giving you some of the best fantasy football sleepers in Week 13!

DeAngelo Williams vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Most who spent relatively high fantasy football draft picks on Williams have probably either cut him loose or have just forgotten about him. However, Carolina’s richest running back has had double digits worth of fantasy points in each of the last two weeks, and he is starting to at least get a few more carries than RB Jonathan Stewart. Either way, the Tampa Bay defense has had a miserable time going against some of the top running games in the league, as this unit ranks No. 31 in the league against rushers in terms of fantasy points. It’s always scary to see QB Cam Newton stealing touchdowns, but Williams has gotten a couple red zone looks of late, so we know that he at least has a shot of getting the job done.

Stevan Ridley vs. Indianapolis Colts
Ridley has only really had one good game this year, a 97-yard effort against the Oakland Raiders in Week 4. Since that point, he only has 21 carries for 46 yards without a sniff of the end zone. However, this game against the Colts is going to be an interesting one, as Head Coach Bill Belichick knows that this is going to be a great opportunity to use all of his running backs against a pitiful defense that ranks dead last in the league in a number of categories. Ridley may get some more looks, especially if RB Danny Woodhead and RB Shane Vereen can’t go, as both are injured.

Nate Burleson vs. New Orleans Saints
Odds have it, there is going to be a shootout in the Bayou on Sunday, and that means that QB Matt Stafford is going to have to put the ball in the air quite a bit to have any chance of sticking around with QB Drew Brees and the Saints. Burleson has had at least four catches in each of Detroit’s last four games, and he has emerged as a legitimate second receiver opposite of the great WR Calvin Johnson. Finding the end zone might be tough, as there is a lot of attention paid to both Johnson and TE Brandon Pettigrew when the Lions get in the red zone, but especially if you’re in a PPR league, Burleson makes for a great play, and he might be able to be had via free agency.

Jacksonville Jaguars D/ST vs. San Diego Chargers
The Jags are allowing just over 18 points per game this year, and you know that they are going to play a relatively short game with all of the running that RB Maurice Jones-Drew should be doing. That being said, the Chargers look like a lame team right now with a lame duck coach, and their offense just turns the ball over a ton. San Diego’s offense ranks No. 19 in the league for fantasy points against defensive, but a lot of the damage came at the start of the season when the team was 4-1. The Bolts haven’t won since that point, they have been devastatingly bad. That shouldn’t change on Monday with new Head Coach Mel Tucker in charge of the Jags.

Odds The Green Bay Packers Go Undefeated In 2012

December 3rd, 2011 by Adam Markowitz (Bankroll Sports Columnist) | Posted in NFL Football   Comments Off on Odds The Green Bay Packers Go Undefeated In 2012
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Can the Green Bay Packers really run the table this year? The Packers are now +145 to finish out the season with a 16-0 record, and they are +310 to finish out the season with a perfect 19-0 season, which would make them the first team in NFL history to win 19 games without defeat in the season.

However, if you’re going to get in on the Packers to run the table, you probably are going to want to invest this week. Green Bay is a 6.5 point favorite on the road against the New York Giants, but once that game is said and done with, there really aren’t any tremendous challenges left. The Packers have to play the Oakland Raiders at home, Kansas City Chiefs on the road, and then the two teams that are fighting for the Wild Card spots in the conference, the Chicago Bears and Detroit Lions at home. From there, it would be home games in the playoffs, where the Pack hardly ever lose.

If you’re going to beat Green Bay, you’re going to have to do so with your passing game, wihch is why we think that the Giants have a puncher’s chance. The Packers rank No. 31 in the league in pass defense at 287.8 yards per game and No. 30 in total defense at 393.4 yards per game. We’ve seen QB Philip Rivers nearly post a tremendous comeback in the fourth quarter against Green Bay, and if he can do it, so can the likes of QB Eli Manning and QB Matt Stafford.

However, it’s just ridiculously difficult to stop this offense. Green Bay has only been held under 35 points at home once this year, and that came in a game that was a blowout from start to finish against the St. Louis Rams. QB Aaron Rodgers has thrown three of his four picks this year at Lambeau Field, but he also hasn’t had a game in which he has thrown fewer than three TDs at home either. He also hasn’t had a game this year in which he has had a quarterback rating of less than 111. Considering the fact that no quarterback has ever had a rating that high for a full season, it’s amazing that he has done that in all 11 of his games.

Should the Packers win on Sunday, expect to see this prop come down to even money or so, if even that.

Philadelphia Eagles vs. Seattle Seahawks NFL Prop Picks (12/1/11)

November 29th, 2011 by Adam Markowitz (Bankroll Sports Columnist) | Posted in NFL Football   Comments Off on Philadelphia Eagles vs. Seattle Seahawks NFL Prop Picks (12/1/11)
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Our NFL prop picks continue with our Thursday Night Football picks and our Philadelphia Eagles vs. Seattle Seahawks prop picks. Be sure to check out our NFL prop picks for the big duel on Thursday, courtesy of BetOnline Sportsbook.

Brent Celek Over/Under 4.5 Receptions
Celek has looked like a significantly bigger piece to the offense for the Eagles in the last few weeks, and he could be in store for a nice game on Thursday as well. With QB Vince Young under center over the last two weeks, Celek has 11 receptions for 135 yards. The Seattle defense has been prone to underneath passing routes this year, and this is where Celek really makes his living. We just don’t trust that WR DeSean Jackson is going to be in the game mentally after being suspended and benched in two of the team’s last three games, and we already know that WR Jeremy Maclin is out, so that really could open things up for Celek to have a nice game on Thursday. Brent Celek Over 4.5 Receptions (-115 at BetOnline Sportsbook)

Seattle Longest Pass Completion Over/Under 34.5 Yards
This is a sucker’s bet if we’ve ever seen one. You’d like to think that this is a gimme to just get one pass play of at least 35 yards over the course of a game, right? However, we just don’t see this happening anywhere near half the time, especially against these great corners that the Eagles have. RB Marshawn Lynch isn’t a back that catches many passes out of the backfield, and RB Leon Washington, the man that could take a screen pass 60 yards doesn’t get on the field often enough to scare us. WR Doug Baldwin and WR Ben Obamanu are both relatively slow, and WR Sidney Rice, the team’s only game breaker on the outside was put on IR this past week. Last week, there wasn’t even a pass play that went for 30 yards, let alone 35, and you have to remember that we are talking about a quarterback here in QB Tarvaris Jackson that only has thrown for 221 yards or fewer in each of his last four games. Don’t count on a big pass play tonight. Seattle Longest Pass Completion Under 34.5 Yards (-115 at BetOnline Sportsbook).

Vince Young Over/Under 22 Pass Completions
We know that Head Coach Andy Reid loves to throw the football, and we know that Young has had himself two games with relatively gaudy stats over the last two weeks. However, it just isn’t going to be the case on Thursday. Last week, Young threw the ball 48 times because the Eagles were trailing the game from basically the start of the second quarter on against a team with no secondary whatsoever. The week before, he went 23-of-36 for 258 yards against a New York secondary that has had its share of problems as well. Now, VY is going against a Seattle team that doesn’t have a brutally bad secondary, and at least if the NFL betting lines hold up, Philly may actually be winning at some point over the course of this game. Asking a backup quarterback to go on the road and complete 23 passes is just a very, very tall order. Vince Young Under 22 Pass Completions (-115 at BetOnline Sportsbook).

New York Giants vs. New Orleans Saints NFL Prop Picks (11/28/11)

November 28th, 2011 by Adam Markowitz (Bankroll Sports Columnist) | Posted in NFL Football   Comments Off on New York Giants vs. New Orleans Saints NFL Prop Picks (11/28/11)
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Our NFL prop picks continue with our Monday Night Football picks and our New York Giants vs. New Orleans Saints prop picks. Be sure to check out our NFL prop picks for the big duel on Monday, courtesy of BetOnline Sportsbook.

Marquis Colston Over/Under 5.5 Pass Receptions
We really recommend playing all of the ‘overs’ for all of the New Orleans receivers this week, as the Giants just don’t have a great secondary and their pass rush probably isn’t going to be able to put all that much pressure onto QB Drew Brees. Colston has really started to build a great rapport with Brees since coming back to the lineup after missing a few games, and the end result has been some huge outings. Just in the last four weeks, Colston has at least 90 yards three times, and he has three TDs in that stretch as well. Don’t be shocked if he ends up with at least 10 looks on Monday, and if that’s the case, he’ll get at least six receptions for certain. Marquis Colston Over 5.5 Pass Receptions (-115 at BetOnline Sportsbook)

Drew Brees Over/Under 2.5 TD Passes
Think that Brees loves playing in primetime? So far this year, the Saints have played a pair of games in primetime, and in those two games, Brees has a total of eight TD passes without tossing an interception, and he has 744 passing yards to show for it. By the way, the team has a tremendous 96 points scored in those two games as well. Sure, we know that Brees hasn’t thrown for more than two scores against a defense not named the Indianapolis Colts since Week 3 against the Houston Texans, but the team hasn’t scored more than 30 but once in that stretch as well. Look for both of those stats to change on Monday against a suspect New York outfit that is definitely going in the wrong direction in the standings. Brees Over 2.5 TD Passes (+120 at BetOnline Sportsbook).

Will Eli Manning Throw a TD or an INT First?
Death, taxes, and Eli Manning throwing at least one pick in every crucial game for the Giants. They’re the only three things in life that you can absolutely count on 100% of the time. Manning has only been picked off nine times this season, but four of those INTs have come in the last three weeks. Now, he is going to be battling against probably the harshest crowd that he will face all season long, and you know that the boys from the Bayou are going to want to get off to a fast start. There has to be at least a 40% chance of Manning making the big mistake before finding the end zone through the air. Manning To Throw an INT Before a TD (+190 at BetOnline Sportsbook).

2011 NFL Prop Picks – Week 12 Fantasy Football Sleepers

November 25th, 2011 by Adam Markowitz (Bankroll Sports Columnist) | Posted in NFL Football   Comments Off on 2011 NFL Prop Picks – Week 12 Fantasy Football Sleepers
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Fantasy Football picks are here at Bankroll Sports this year, and we are going to try to make the most of your NFL props betting options at BoDog Sportsbook by giving you some of the best fantasy football sleepers in Week 12!

Michael Jenkins vs. Atlanta Falcons
This is going to be an interesting week for the Minnesota offense without RB Adrian Peterson in the fold. WR Percy Harvin could be used more as a running back than anything else, and either way, QB Christian Ponder is likely going to have to put the ball in the air to get the job done against an Atlanta defense that typically excels against the run. The Falcons defense ranks No. 25 against fantasy wide receivers this year, and after DB Dunta Robinson, there really isn’t a heck of a lot out there in terms of defensive backs. Don’t be surprised if Jenkins, who has seen increased looks over the course of the last several weeks turns out to be a top target of Ponder’s on Sunday.

Harry Douglas vs. Minnesota Vikings
The Vikes have a miserable secondary, and they really don’t have the corners to be able to match up with QB Matt Ryan. Douglas has 16 catches and over 290 yards over the course of his last four games, and in one of those games, he didn’t have a catch because of WR Julio Jones’ massive game against Indy. The former Louisville Cardinal has a great chance to get the job done on Sunday. He doesn’t have a touchdown this year, but he does have a tremendous amount of big plays, and this could be the week that he breaks one into the end zone.

Joseph Addai vs. Carolina Panthers
If there is a week that you are going to want to use any of the Colts in your fantasy football lineup, this is probably the week to do it. Addai has been nursing a hamstring injury, but he is expected to give it a go this week. Be sure to check your injury report first. If Addai is out, you might want to give Delone Carter a shot this weekend. No matter who is going against the Panthers, the running backs seem to be picking up slews of yards and lots of touchdowns. Carolina ranks dead last in the league against running backs from a fantasy standpoint, and though Indianapolis seems to be rather anemic on the ground on a regular basis, this could be the week that everything changes.

Dustin Keller vs. Buffalo Bills
Keller hasn’t found the end zone since Week 2, and he really hasn’t had a remarkable game since Week 3, but he did have four catches for 64 yards against the Bills just three weeks ago. Now, the Jets are back at home, and the Buffalo defense doesn’t look all that much better. Against the Broncos last week, Keller had five receptions for 40 yards and a slew of looks, including a few in the red zone. The Bills tend to look like a mess right now, and we don’t think that they are going to be able to keep the Jets out of the zone all that often. We’ll take our chances on Keller at tight end if we’re in a bit of a bind.

2011 NFL Prop Picks – Week 11 Fantasy Football Sleepers

November 17th, 2011 by Adam Markowitz (Bankroll Sports Columnist) | Posted in NFL Football   Comments Off on 2011 NFL Prop Picks – Week 11 Fantasy Football Sleepers
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Fantasy Football picks are here at Bankroll Sports this year, and we are going to try to make the most of your NFL props betting options at BoDog Sportsbook by giving you some of the best fantasy football sleepers in Week 11!

Carson Palmer vs. Minnesota Vikings
The Vikings rank No. 30 against the pass and are No. 31 against fantasy quarterbacks. Throw out that first game that Palmer played against Kansas City in which he was picked off three times, and you’ve got a man with some darn good fantasy stats. He’s thrown for 299+ yards in back to back games and has five touchdowns to go with it. Sure, those nine turnovers in 2.5 games are an eyesore, but it’s nothing that a couple touchdowns won’t make you feel better about. If you’re in a bye week binge at QB, this is your perfect start to make even though the Raiders are going on the road.

Michael Bush vs. Minnesota Vikings
Same game. Same type of result. The Vikings are a heck of a lot better against the run than the pass, but the way that the Raiders have force fed Bush over the last two games has been remarkable. It’s hard to believe that Bush is a backup tailback. When he has the backfield to himself though, look out! He had over 230 total yards and a TD last week, and we can see a heck of a lot more of the same this week against Minnesota. There’s just no way that Bush doesn’t get his hands on the ball at least 25 times if Run DMC is kept out of the lineup once again, which is sounding like more and more of a possibility.

Marshawn Lynch vs. St. Louis Rams
This is the same St. Louis team that just let Chris Ogbonnaya run for a ton of yards against it last week… Most have probably forgotten about Lynch, and we can see why that was the case up until a few weeks ago. He only averaged 6.4 fantasy points per game (standard ESPN scoring) over his first seven games of the year, and he looked like he was being overtaken by RB Leon Washington and a host of others in the Seattle backfield. That being said, against the Cowboys and Ravens in the last two weeks, Lynch has 55 carries, 244 yards, and a TD in each game. Now, he’s got an easy two game stretch against the Rams and Redskins and really should be started even if he is on your bench.

Dexter McCluster vs. New England Patriots
In most leagues, McCluster will work as a receiver or as a running back, which makes him the perfect play this week if you are weak in either spot due to a big bye week. We know that he hasn’t found the end zone all year long, but what we also know is that there really is no choice but to get the ball in his hands a heck of a lot more often that has already been the case. QB Tyler Palko will be checking down all game in all likelihood, and against a relatively not-so-athletic defense like that of the Patriots, this could ultimately be a game in which McCluster ends up with 60 rushing yards, 70 receiving yards, and that elusive touchdown.