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Baltimore Ravens Super Bowl 47 Predictions, Keys to Game, Picks

January 21st, 2013 by Adam Markowitz (Bankroll Sports Columnist) | Posted in NFL Football   Comments Off on Baltimore Ravens Super Bowl 47 Predictions, Keys to Game, Picks
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Ravens Super BowlThey didn’t take the easiest road in the world to get here, but the Baltimore Ravens have made it to the Super Bowl for the second time in their franchise’s history. They’ll get a chance to claim their second ever Lombardi Trophy on February 3rd, but they have a long road to climb to be able to get to that point. Check out our Super Bowl keys to the game and what the Ravens needs to do to beat the San Francisco 49ers in New Orleans.

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#4 Baltimore Ravens vs. #2 San Francisco 49ers
Superbowl 47 Location: Mercedes Benz Superdome, New Orleans, LA
Superbowl Date/Time: Sunday, February 3rd, 6:30 p.m. (ET)
Superbowl TV Coverage: CBS

Key #1: Joe Flacco has to come up with one more “elite” game
We’ve had this one drilled down our throats for weeks, months… and heck, even years! QB Joe Flacco isn’t an elite quarterback. We know this. All we have to do is look at the way that he stands in the pocket, the way that he ultimately plays under pressure from time to time, and his numbers, and we know that he isn’t the second coming of John Elway or Joe Montana. However, what Flacco is, is a winner. He has brought his team to the playoffs for five straight seasons, has won at least one playoff game for five straight seasons, has made it to the AFC Championship Game three times in the last four years, and now, he has his team just one game away from the Lombardi Trophy. Something different has happened this time around, though. Flacco is actually outplaying some of these truly “elite” quarterbacks. QB Tom Brady looked like a chump in the second half of the AFC Championship Game in comparison to Flacco, while the week before, Flacco was throwing big time passes, while QB Peyton Manning was busy getting picked off in overtime. The former first round pick of the Ravens has thrown for 853 yards and eight TDs over the course of his last games here in the postseason. Sure, some of it was luck, and sure, had that 70-yard floating pass not found its way into the hands of WR Jacoby Jones, we’d probably still be talking about Flacco as the man that has never won the big game in his career. But now, Flacco can say that he is a winner. He has been in the Super Bowl. And with one more game with the stats of an elite quarterback, there might be no way to avoid putting Joe Cool in the same discussion with Brady and Manning.

Key #2: Torrey Smith has to find space deep in the San Fran secondary
The 49ers can be had in their secondary, and we have seen it time and time again over the course of the last few weeks. They allowed WR Julio Jones to catch 11 passes for 182 yards and two TDs against the Atlanta Falcons, and he hasn’t nearly been the only receiver of late to make some big plays happen against these 49ers. Roddy White did it (7 catches, 100 yards). James Jones did it (4 catches, 87 yards, 1 TD). Michael Floyd did it with Brian Hoyer throwing him the football (8 catches, 166 yards, 1 TD). Brandon Lloyd did it, too (10 catches, 190 yards). Four of these five names all share the same thing in common: They aren’t No. 1 receivers on their own teams. In fact, short of the NFC Championship Game, there really aren’t any top targets that have beaten up the Niners. It’s always been the No. 2 or No. 3 guy in the pecking order. Smith is that type of receiver, and he is a man that can get up the field in a hurry. It isn’t a prerequisite for him to score, and he doesn’t even have to have one of these games where he catches 10 passes for 130 yards. Smith just needs to break through the 49ers in the back end a time or two over the course of the game, and the passing game could really open up.

Superbowl 47 Odds at Diamond Sportsbook
Baltimore Ravens +4
San Francisco 49ers -4
Over/Under 48.5
Click Here to Bet Your Ravens vs. Ravens Picks!

Key #3: The offensive line has to keep Aldon Smith out of the backfield
The best games that the 49ers have had this year have seemingly all involved big outings from LB Aldon Smith. The man from Mizzou had 19.5 sacks this year, and in games in which he logged at least one sack, the team allowed 13.1 points per game. In games in which Smith doesn’t get a sack, which now includes five games in a row, the Niners have conceded 24.6 points per game, and they certainly have looked beatable. Of course, we know that there are some fallacies in there, as Smith is getting more attention and room is opening up for some of the other members of the front seven to get to the quarterback. However, this is a real key in this game. When the Ravens were struggling at their worst this year, they were allowing men like DE JJ Watt or DE Von Miller wreak havoc on Flacco and the offense. If the offensive line and the combination of tight ends and FB Vonta Leach can figure out how to put a hat on Smith, it’s going to make life a heck of a lot easier for this offense for the whole game.

Key #4: The defense has to confuse Colin Kaepernick
It is clear that the more time that QB Colin Kaepernick has to throw the ball and get into space, the more likely he is to make the big time play to burn the Baltimore defense. We have seen that time and time again. Teams just underestimate how fast this guy really is, and in the end, he has blown just about every unit he has faced up, especially here in the playoffs. However, Kaepernick isn’t without his struggles, and he has made some young mistakes. There isn’t a defense that has more ornate schemes than this Baltimore ‘D’, especially with two weeks to game plan for the mobile quarterback. Though the Atlanta defense didn’t end up having the most success in the world, it was clear that it had a better chance to get off the field when Kaepernick was in the pocket than when he was out of it, but that doesn’t have to remain the case when push comes to shove. Remember that the pick six that Kaepernick threw against the Green Bay Packers at the outset of that game came while he was on the move, and he made a poor decision. Whatever it takes to make Kaepernick make some of those bad decisions, as rare as they are, is what will be the key factor here for Baltimore defensively.

Key #5: The emotion just can’t run out
If you really look at the talent level that the Ravens have been playing with and playing against over the course of the last several weeks, you have to think that they have just been overmatched. They certainly weren’t a more talented team than either New England or Denver, but they were able to persevere in spite of the fact, largely because of the emotions that are coming from the squad in purple. Oh sure, LB Ray Lewis’ pending retirement is helping the team ride that wave, as is the fact that the team has that “us against the world” mentality to it. However, there is always a danger, especially with the long layoff before this one kicks off, that any team is going to fall flat. The Ravens have to keep this intensity up for the next two weeks, because they are running into a very businesslike team in the 49ers that are going to be in the Bayou for business and business only, not a party. If that intensity isn’t high from the start of practice on Monday through the very last second of the Super Bowl, the Ravens are going to be in some trouble for sure, and they run the risk of getting their doors blown off.

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San Francisco 49ers Super Bowl 47 Predictions, Keys to Game, Picks

January 20th, 2013 by Adam Markowitz (Bankroll Sports Columnist) | Posted in NFL Football   Comments Off on San Francisco 49ers Super Bowl 47 Predictions, Keys to Game, Picks
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Super Bowl 49ersThe San Francisco 49ers became the first team to lock up a spot in Super Bowl 47 when they knocked off the Atlanta Falcons 28-24 at the Georgia Dome. Now, they’re playing in the biggest game of the season, and we are set to make our Superbowl predictions and picks.  In this article we’ll discuss the keys to the game; as in what the 49ers need to do to win the Super Bowl.

Click Here For The 2013 NFL Playoff Bracket, the 2013 NFL Playoffs Schedule, and all of our NFL Playoff Game Previews

#2 San Francisco 49ers vs. #4 Baltimore Ravens
Super Bowl 47 Location: Mercedes Benz Superdome, New Orleans, LA
When is the Super Bowl?: Sunday, February 3rd, 6:30 p.m. (ET)
Super Bowl TV Coverage: CBS

Key #1: 49ers have to come out firing & let C.K. orchestrate the offense from the start.
Early in the Falcons game, it appeared that Jim Harbaugh & Greg Roman were trying to out-think Atlanta defensive coordinator, Mike Nolan.  It seemed as if the 49ers assumed that all the focus would be on Kaepernick’s running ability out of the pistol formation.  On the very first play, the 49ers came out of the huddle, showed the pistol formation, and than quickly switched to a power-i before running their first play.  Perhaps this was their way of saying, “We’ll do what we want”.  But, it didn’t fool Atlanta’s defense at all.  A hand-off to Gore resulted in Falcon defenders filling holes and swarming to the football.  Everyone knows the 49ers intend to run the football between the tackles, regardless of how well Kaepernick slinging the rock.  If the Niners coaching staff really wanted to throw the Falcon defense off-guard, a 5-wide receiver set along with a no-huddle offense from the start really would have done the trick.  The Falcons were playing the run on every play in the first quarter, and the 49ers were playing right into their hands.  Due to the quick three-and-outs, Kaepernick wasn’t able to get comfortable orchestrating the offense until he was allowed to hit some receivers in stride and make some check downs.  Baltimore is going to do everything they can to show that San Francisco’s highly touted offensive front isn’t going to push them around in the running game (and they are going to try to rattle the young gunslinger).  The Ravens will be very aggressive  in doing so.  Therefore, making sure C.K. gets into a rhythm throwing the football early is important.  Not only will it surprise the Ravens defense, but it will also open things up for the Gore/James/Kap running attack trifecta.  It will also allow them to use the Pistol more often later on in the game.  Making the older Ray Lewis run around a little bit, so that he’s huffing and puffing, rather than screaming, will do wonders for the 49ers offense.

Key #2: 49ers secondary has to communicate and avoid allowing big plays down the field.
The one knock against the 49ers over the course of the last few weeks is that they’ve been giving up some big plays down the field.  Early in the Falcons game, a blown assignment by the 49ers secondary allowed Julio Jones to catch a wide open TD.  The Ravens proved in the AFC Championship Game that they can score using the big play, as they got off quite a few big plays in the second half against the Patriots. Baltimore likes to run a modified hurry up, and it has the potential to get a heck of a lot of snaps off if the defense can’t get off the field. Keeping a close eye on WR Torrey Smith down the field and Anquan Boldin over the middle will be very important.  When playing against any elite defense, most teams that have a big arm quarterback are going to take their shots down the field; hoping they can either make a play or get a flag.  If the 49ers can bat these deep ball shots down, they will force the Ravens into some early 3rd and longs and some mistakes.

Super Bowl Betting Odds at WagerWeb Sportsbook
San Francisco 49ers -4
Baltimore Ravens +4
Over/Under 48.5
Click Here to Bet Your Super Bowl Picks!

Key #3: Someone has to get in the face of quarterback, Joe Flacco
Though we know that QB Joe Flacco has a history of being cool in the pocket, he has also had some games in which he has folded as well when he is under a lot of pressure. Matt Ryan was very comfortable early in the NFC Championship.  However, in the second half, they were able to get to him a little bit and force him into some mistakes.  Clearly the talent is there to get to Flacco.  DE Aldon Smith is one of the best pass rushers in the game and DT Justin Smith is a monster up front as well.  However, DT Isaac Sopoaga managed to get the only sack of the game against Atlanta. Two weeks ago, LB Patrick Willis had the only sack against QB Aaron Rodgers and the Pack. Aldon Smith, had 19.5 sacks in his first 13 games of the season, but has not recorded a single sack in his last five games.  He seems to get them in bunches as he recorded 11 sacks over a 4 game span in the midway point of the season. Regardless, it doesn’t have to be Smith, but someone had better get a hand in Flacco’s face and knock him around a little bit.

Key #4: Other receivers have to step up aside from Michael Crabtree
Head Coach John Harbaugh isn’t a fool by any stretch of the imagination. He knows that WR Michael Crabtree is going to get the ball thrown his way quite a bit, as Crabtree really is the only outstanding receiver that the team has at its disposal. The Texas Tech Red Raider caught 15 passes for 176 yards and two TD in the playoffs thus far.  He was largely blanketed by a bevy of Atlanta defensive backs in the NFC Championship (opening things up for a big game from Vernon Davis). No matter what the Baltimore defense throws at Crabtree, he’ll get his catches, but someone else has to step it up. Don’t discount guys like WR Randy Moss and TE Delanie Walke. Though the two only combined for four catches and 66 yards, they were all in clutch spots for the offense. It’s not a matter of getting 100 yards out of Davis, Moss, or anyone else in the lineup, it’s just that a few guys need to make a few big plays to help Kaepernick win his first Superbowl.

WagerWeb

Key #5: The 49ers’ front seven absolutely cannot miss tackles
RB Ray Rice is going to be coming and coming strong at the San Francisco defense, and he forces as many missed tackles of linebackers as any running back in the league with his low center of gravity. TE Dennis Pitta and WR Anquan Boldin also have the ability to bowling over unsuspecting members of the secondary to boot. San Fran is one of the best tackling teams in football, and it comes all over the field. This is the second straight year that Head Coach Jim Harbaugh has had his 49ers in the Top 5 in the league in tackles, and that has to hold true in the Super Bowl. If Rice is shaking tackles left and right, the Niners are going to be in some trouble. They have to continue to wrap up at the point of attack no matter who has the football. If they do that, Baltimore is going to have a heck of a time just trying to move the pigskin.

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AFC Championship Prop Picks: Ravens vs. Patriots Predictions 1/20

January 20th, 2013 by Adam Markowitz (Bankroll Sports Columnist) | Posted in NFL Football   Comments Off on AFC Championship Prop Picks: Ravens vs. Patriots Predictions 1/20
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Tom BradyThe New England Patriots and Baltimore Ravens are set to continue the 2013 NFL playoffs, and as a part of our analysis of the AFC Championship Game betting lines, we are taking a look at some of the best NFL props on the board for this crucial clash.

Joe Flacco Over/Under 34.5 Pass Attempts: Flacco attempted 523 passes in his first 15 games of the season (we’ll throw out Week 17 when he played just two drives against the Cincinnati Bengals), an average of 34.9 pass attempts per game. Over the course of the last several weeks since Jim Caldwell took over as the team’s offensive coordinator, the run game has been a significantly bigger part of the game. So forget about the fact that Joe Cool put the ball in the air 39 times when these two met the first time, and forget about that average. Instead, look at the fact that Flacco threw the ball 34 times last week against the Denver Broncos… in a game which lasted over five quarters and the team played catch up for a good chunk of the second half. The Baltimore defense is just on the field for too many plays right now, 87 in each of the last two weeks, for Flacco to get to this type of a number of pass attempts. Joe Flacco Under 34.5 Pass Attempts (+100)

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Will Ray Rice Score a Touchdown?: This seems to be an odd line. Rice only at -140 to score a touchdown? That basically insinuates that he is only going to score in nine of the 16 games in the regular season, and about 10 of the 18 that he has played this year including the playoffs. Again, throw out Week 17, and Rice has 10 TDs scored in eight games this year. Still, one of those touchdowns came against these Patriots, and it feels as though the team has to get close enough to the goal line for Rice to get in. Remember that last year, Rice had 15 total touchdowns in his 16 games, and we think that he has a lot better than a 60/40 chance to find pay dirt against a sometimes suspect New England defense. Ray Rice To Score a Touchdown (-140)

Ray Lewis Over/Under 9.5 Tackles: We apologize to the big man out of Miami, but asking for Ray Ray to get to 10 tackles in this game is tough. A lot of the tackles made against the Patriots are done so in open space and are more often done by safeties than anything else. (For that reason, Ed Reed Over 5.5 Tackles is probably a great play.) Yes, Lewis has had 13 and 17 tackles in his two playoff games, and yes, he had at least 10 tackles in four of his six games before getting injured, but a lot of that came against teams that prefer to run the football. This is more of a high octane passing attack that gets the ball out on the edges and doesn’t run the ball inside quite as much. Lewis could ultimately suffer when push comes to shove. Ray Lewis Under 9.5 Tackles (-105)

Tom Brady Rushing Yards Over/Under 1.5: Brady isn’t going to openly run the ball all that much, and he only had 23 rushing attempts all year long. That being said, especially in these short yardage situations when the team is running the hurry up offense, Brady has been known to get up under center and sneak it straight forward. He faked that a couple of times against the Texans last week and get the ball on the edge to his running backs instead, but we know that the option is still there for him to do so. The numbers suggest that Brady will end up with exactly zero yards rushing. We think that he is going to end up with at least a few yards when push comes to shove. Tom Brady Over 1.5 Rushing Yards (-115)

Will Shane Vereen Score a Touchdown?: Let’s be realistic about Vereen here for a second. He only scored four TDs all year long in the regular season. Yes, Brady loves to keep the offense out there in the form that it is in, and yes, Vereen did score three times last week and caught some big time passes out of the backfield, but he still has five games with a touchdown scored out of 14 games including the regular season, and that just isn’t going to cut it with us. Get last week’s game out of your mind and play this one by the numbers. Shane Vereen To Not Score a Touchdown (-135)

Ray Rice (-4.5) Rushing Yards vs. Stevan Ridley: It’s an interesting comparison for sure. Ridley rushed for more yards in the regular season, accounting for 1,263 yards on the ground, and he is the one going against a defense that allows a lot more yards on the ground than the Patriots do. Of course, what we saw last week out of the Texans is that RB Arian Foster was able to move the ball against this unit on the ground when he was given the opportunity to do so, especially as the game wore on. Don’t think that Caldwell wasn’t looking at that and thinking that he had some real opportunities. Ridley isn’t also necessarily the only back that is going to touch the football. Rice will split some with RB Bernard Pierce, but he is still the horse that the team rides upon. Go with Rice here to outdo Ridley with an experience-driven game.

Who Will Score First New England Touchdown?: This is a sneaky one for sure. The team scored 59 touchdowns this year in the regular season, and Brady threw 34 of them, so there is a good chance that it’s going to be a passing score. TE Aaron Hernandez is the receiving favorite at 4 to 1, but there are a lot of other great options as well. But instead, the man that we are going to be keying in on is Brady. Remember how we talked about his rushing yards earlier? Brady had four rushing scores this year, which is only two fewer than WR Wes Welker (who is 9/2) and the same as WR Brandon Lloyd (13 to 2). We know we’re losing more often than not, but it’s still a great play to make on Brady to score first for the Pats more than one out of 15 times. Tom Brady To Score First New England Touchdown (+1500)

NFC Championship Prop Picks: 49ers vs. Falcons Predictions 1/20

January 17th, 2013 by Adam Markowitz (Bankroll Sports Columnist) | Posted in NFL Football   Comments Off on NFC Championship Prop Picks: 49ers vs. Falcons Predictions 1/20
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Atlanta FalconsThe Atlanta Falcons and San Francisco 49ers are set to continue the 2013 NFL playoffs, and as a part of our analysis of the NFC Championship Game betting lines, we are taking a look at some of the best NFL props on the board for this crucial clash.

Colin Kaepernick Over/Under 62.5 Rushing Yards: Don’t do it! It’s a trap! Kaepernick shocked the world last week by rushing for 181 yards and two TDs against the Packers, and now, he is going to be going against a defense that was torched by a very similar QB Russell Wilson. Remember folks, last week was the highest scoring divisional round in NFL history, and it really wasn’t all that close. What Wilson and Kaepernick did was out of this world, and they just can’t be expected to have repeat performances. Sure, this could be problematic, knowing that ultimately, Kaepernick only needs to do a bit more than a third of what he did last week. However, look back at the raw numbers. Since Kaepernick jumped into the starting lineup, he has tallied 10, 27, 84, 53, 28, 31, 5, and 181 yards in his eight games. Even by averages, that’s only 52.4 yards per game, and when you take out the last two games, both of which we consider to be outliers, that number is still only at 38.8 yards per game. Think about this another way. The over/under here is 62.5, and we’ll just say that it’s a 50/50 proposition and this ends up being the average that Kaepernick were to have over the course of a 16-game season. That would leave him at exactly 1,000 yards. Know how many quarterbacks have rushed for 1,000 yards in a single season? One. Michael Vick. Once. In all of these years of NFL history. Don’t get suckered into what you saw last week.Colin Kaepernick Under 62.5 Rushing Yards (+100)

Will Frank Gore Score a Touchdown?: The Atlanta defense only gets credit for its scoring average, but it did allow four second half touchdowns last week against the Seahawks. If the Niners get into the end zone even three times, Gore is almost sure to score at least one of them. He found the end zone in 10 of his 17 games this year, and we really like these percentages at this point. Though Gore didn’t score San Fran’s final short touchdown of the game against the Packers (Anthony Dixon did), we still think that there is a great chance that Gore will find his way into the Promised Land at some point during this game. Frank Gore To Score a Touchdown (+100)

Michael Crabtree Over/Under 85.5 Receiving Yards: Here’s the problem that Crabtree has in this game: He’s going to be the only receiver that has a chance, and he is going to be matched up with a great corner in DB Asante Samuel, who has the ability to shut down even the best of receivers in the biggest of games. The only thing factor that scares us here is that Kaepernick has really only had eyes for Crabtree over the course of the last several weeks. He has had five games with at least 93 yards and five games with at least seven receptions in his last six games, all of which were started by Kaepernick, and he hadn’t put up more than seven receptions in a single game with QB Alex Smith calling the shots. Still, we think that this is just too high of a number for Crabtree to reach more often than not with a great corner on his back. Michael Crabtree Under 85.5 Receiving Yards (-115)

Vernon Davis Over/Under 40.5 Receiving Yards: This could be the best play on the board, and it could be the worst play on the board. If you believe in what you saw last week when TE Zach Miller absolutely lit up this secondary, this is a fantastic play to make. If you believe what you have seen over the course of the last several weeks when Davis was totally shut down and often held to just one reception (or no receptions), maybe this isn’t so smart. But here’s what we do know historically about Davis: He might have had a bad season, but he averaged 55.7 yards per game over his previous three seasons before this year. He’s still the second leading receiver on the team, and he still is a great option to use over the middle. It’s tough to throw against these Atlanta corners. It’s not always as tough to take advantage of the intermediate throws into the middle of the field. If Davis ever had a good game in him, this would be the game for that to happen. Vernon Davis Over 40.5 Receiving Yards (-115)

Matt Ryan Over/Under 280.5 Passing Yards: Here’s where we’re using some common sense. Matty Ice just hasn’t been all that good in the playoffs in his career, and even last week against the Seahawks, he wasn’t all that special. He’s going against a secondary now that ranked fourth in the league, allowing just over 200 passing yards per game. Ryan threw for 250 yards last week against the Seahawks, most of which came in the first two and a half quarters. That was the only time in his career in which he threw for more than 200 yards in a postseason game. This probably is going to be another one of these struggles for Ryan from start to finish. Matt Ryan Under 280.5 Passing Yards (+100)

Roddy White Over/Under 79.5 Receiving Yards: Same sort of concept. If Matty Ice doesn’t thrown for 280, White probably isn’t getting to 80. White has been all over the place anyway. He had 76 yards last week against the Seahawks and just 42 the week before against Tampa Bay. He had seven games this year with at least 100 yards, but all but one of the rest of his games featured 76 yards or fewer. It’s possible that White ends up having a great day, but it just isn’t all that likely. Consider that two of his 100+ yard games came against the lousy Panthers, one came against the lousy Saints, one came against the lousy Cowboys, and one came against the lousy Lions. Against some of the better sets of corners in the league? 38 yards against the Eagles, 57 yards against the Bucs, 42 yards against the Bucs the second time, 76 yards against the Seahawks… It just doesn’t look all that good for White.

Julio Jones Over/Under 72.5 Receiving Yards: And here we are again. White has had six straight games with 74 yards or fewer, and he has had 71 or fewer in five of those six. A deep play threat, you know that Jones is going to be blanketed with two deep coverage for most of the game against the 49ers, and that’s not going to help out his cause either. The only way Ryan gets to 280 is by hitting Jones deep. If that doesn’t happen, the former member of the Alabama Crimson Tide isn’t getting to 73 either.

Ravens @ Patriots AFC Championship Game Predictions, Picks 1/20

January 13th, 2013 by Adam Markowitz (Bankroll Sports Columnist) | Posted in NFL Football   Comments Off on Ravens @ Patriots AFC Championship Game Predictions, Picks 1/20
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AFC Championship GameThe 2013 NFL playoff picks are going to be difficult to make, and in this one, the Baltimore Ravens and the New England Patriots are set to do battle with one another. Check out our Ravens vs. Patriots predictions and the keys to the AFC Championship Game for Baltimore vs. New England.

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#4 Baltimore Ravens @ #2 New England Patriots
Ravens vs. Patriots Location: Gillette Stadium, Foxboro, MA
Ravens vs. Patriots Date/Time: Sunday, January 20th, 6:00 p.m. (ET)
Ravens vs. Patriots On TV: CBS

Key #1: The Ravens need to figure out how to keep from being on the field for 80+ snaps
There are only so many snaps that a defense can be on the field for. The Baltimore defense has been on the field for exactly 87 plays over the course of the last two weeks against the Indianapolis Colts and the Denver Broncos. The team only allowed three field goals against the Colts, and though there were 35 points allowed to the Broncos, 14 of those points were allowed on special teams. Conceding 21 points in over five quarters on the road to the No. 1 team in the AFC is nothing to be ashamed of. Though emotion has gotten this team thus far, and LB Ray Lewis has been tremendous in his farewell tour, there is still only so much that can be asked of for a team that allowed 350.8 yards and 21.5 points per game this year. QB Tom Brady is the master of running play after play and taking advantage of a tired defense. He did it all last week against the Houston Texans, and he might be able to take advantage of that against the Ravens as well. New England ran 77 plays when these two teams met the first time. If it does that again, Baltimore is going to be in a heck of a lot of trouble. If the Ravens can get the job done on defense and keep control of the ball on the ground with RB Ray Rice, this could be a very interesting game.

Ravens @ Patriots Odds at Diamond Sportsbook
Baltimore Ravens +9
New England Patriots -9
Over/Under 51
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Key #2: The Patriots have to get over all of their injuries
Brady might be healthy and ready to get back to the Super Bowl for the second straight year, but he doesn’t quite have the healthiest team in the world around him. TE Rob Gronkowski is out for the rest of the year with his second forearm injury of the campaign, and RB Danny Woodhead might be out of the lineup as well. Granted, last week, we saw RB Shane Vereen step up with three total touchdowns, and RB Stevan Ridley had himself a great game, too. Ridley only had 37 yards on 13 carries when these two teams met the first time around, and both Woodhead, RB Brandon Bolden, and WR Julian Edelman were the three offensive touchdown scorers. Bolden will likely have to suit if Woodhead sits, and Edelman’s season is said and done with. All of a sudden, there is a huge difference from entering last week’s game when the Pats were as healthy as they have been all season long, and now when they have a few vital injuries that could prove to be costly. Just about everyone is going to be on notice this week to get into the lineup for New England, and whomever it is that is out there is going to have to be at his best beat the Ravens.

Key #3: Joe Cool has to stay calm and continue to deliver the big time throws
QB Joe Flacco ended up with a raw deal last year. He is still looked upon as the man that is never going to take his team to a Lombardi Trophy, yet in the AFC Championship Game, he still played his heart out. On a day when RB Ray Rice and RB Ricky Williams combined for just 89 yards on 27 carries without a touchdown, and on a day where the weather was awful and the New England defense was swarming, Joe Cool threw for 306 yards and two TDs against one pick. What’s worse for Flacco is that he delivered the ball right on the money that would have won the game if it weren’t dropped by WR Lee Evans, and it’s anyone’s guess as to whether he would have won the game in overtime had K Billy Cundiff not missed that chip shot of a field goal attempt. Over the course of the last two weeks, Flacco has thrown for 613 yards and five TDs without tossing a pick, and the argument could be made that it is the best stretch of football that he has played in his entire career in the postseason. If that continues, the Ravens will have a shot at winning once again. If it doesn’t continue and Flacco resorts back into the quarterback that is largely known for blowing it when the games count the most, Baltimore has no chance.

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49ers vs. Falcons NFC Championship Game Picks, Predictions 1/20

January 13th, 2013 by Adam Markowitz (Bankroll Sports Columnist) | Posted in NFL Football   Comments Off on 49ers vs. Falcons NFC Championship Game Picks, Predictions 1/20
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San Francisco 49ers v Atlanta FalconsThe 2013 NFL playoff picks are going to be difficult to make, and in this one, the San Francisco 49ers and the Atlanta Falcons are set to do battle with one another. Check out our 49ers vs. Falcons predictions and the NFC Championship Game keys to the game for San Francisco vs. Atlanta.

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#2 San Francisco 49ers @ #1 Atlanta Falcons
49ers vs. Falcons Location: Georgia Dome, Atlanta, GA
49ers vs. Falcons Date/Time: Sunday, January 20th, 3:00 p.m. (ET)
49ers vs. Falcons On TV: FOX
Key #1: Vernon Davis has to be a factor for the Niners
We know that the 49ers have been a remarkable team all year long, and they put up an outstanding effort against the Green Bay Packers last week. However, if there has been a knock on QB Colin Kaepernick, it is that he just hasn’t really figured out how to get a great rapport consistently with any of his receivers. Last week, the Falcons were just destroyed by TE Zach Miller, who finished the day with eight receptions for 142 yards and a touchdown. Miller isn’t the only tight end this year to light up the Falcons. Five tight ends since November 29th have put up at least 50 receiving yards against this Atlanta defense. Davis was expected to have a heck of a season, but he only had 41 receptions for 548 yards with five TDs. He also had just one catch against the Packers, but it did go for 44 yards. That now gives Davis just seven receptions in his last seven games dating back to Week 12 against the New Orleans Saints. If Davis isn’t going to be able to figure out how to get the job done, Kaepernick might have a tough time trying to get together with his receivers. Only WR Michael Crabtree had more than two receptions against Green Bay, and with DB Asante Samuel matched up with Crabtree all day on Sunday, someone else will have to step it up. Davis is the perfect man to do just that.

49ers @ Falcons Odds at Diamond Sportsbook
San Francisco 49ers -3.5
Atlanta Falcons +3.5
Over/Under 47
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Key #2: The Falcons have to get some pressure on Colin Kaepernick
DE John Abraham spent most of the game on the sidelines with an ankle injury in the Divisional playoff game, and as a result, QB Russell Wilson was able to run all over the field. Wilson finished with 385 passing yards and 60 rushing yards, and a lot of what he created over the course of the game came on the move. QB Colin Kaepernick has proven that he has ice water in his veins, and he isn’t going to be worried about playing on the road in this situation. He beat the New England Patriots and New Orleans Saints on the road in the regular season, and in his first playoff start, he rebounded from throwing a pick six on the first drive of the game by rushing for 181 yards and two TDs and throwing for 263 yards and two TDs. Atlanta did get two sacks on Wilson, but that just wasn’t good enough, especially in the second half. With Abraham certainly in doubt for this coming week’s game, someone else is going to need to get into the backfield and force Kaepernick to throw the ball, because if he gets on the run like Wilson successfully did time and time again on Sunday, it is going to be a long day for this defense.

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Key #3: Atlanta absolutely has to run the football
Sure, you can pick on what the Falcons had done in the past in the playoffs and you can say that QB Matt Ryan and Head Coach Mike Smith had never won a playoff game since coming to Atlanta. However, the real NFL expert handicappers that disliked the Falcons did so because they didn’t run the ball well all season long, and they really didn’t play great defense. In the first half against the Seahawks, they did both of those items. They held twice on defense in the red zone, and they rushed the ball for 133 yards. In the second half, they allowed three touchdowns on the first three drives of the half on defense, and they only rushed for 34 yards. Needless to say, with as close as the Seahawks came to winning on Sunday, the Falcons are lucky to be here. If they don’t find a way to run the ball against a San Francisco defense that allowed just 94.2 yards per game this year on the ground, this game won’t be even close, as Matty Ice proved last week that he probably isn’t winning the NFC by himself without the help of RB Jacquizz Rodgers and RB Michael Turner.

Houston Texans @ New England Patriots NFL Playoff Predictions 1/13

January 13th, 2013 by Adam Markowitz (Bankroll Sports Columnist) | Posted in NFL Football   Comments Off on Houston Texans @ New England Patriots NFL Playoff Predictions 1/13
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Tom BradyOur 2013 NFL playoffs predictions continue on Sunday, January 13th with the Houston Texans vs. New England Patriots. We are set to make our Texans vs. Patriots predictions, tips, and keys to the game for this crucial duel in the Divisional round of the playoffs.

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#3 Houston Texans @ #2 New England Patriots
Texans vs. Patriots Location: Gillette Stadium, Foxboro, MA
Texans vs. Patriots Date/Time: Sunday, January 13th, 4:30 p.m. (ET)
Texans vs. Patriots On TV: CBS

Key #1: Houston has to come to Gillette meaning business
We just can’t imagine that the Texans are going to come into this one the same way that they did the first time around. Everyone on the team was given a letterman jacket just before going up to Foxboro a month ago, and the club got the living heck beaten out of it. The lasting impression of that game was that the Patriots were playing the game against the Texans on Monday Night Football as all business, while Houston was really there overconfident in itself. This time though, it has to be 100% business for the Texans, who are playing in the biggest game in franchise history. This win would be the best thing that ever happened to the Texans in their 10-year history, but they can’t ultimately get caught up in the moment. This is just too big of a game to ultimately come up here thinking that it is going to be fun and games in Foxboro against a team that clearly is going to be taking this game as pure business.

Texans @ Patriots Odds at WagerWeb Sportsbook
Houston Texans +9.5
New England Patriots -9.5
Over/Under 48.5
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Key #2: The Patriots have to figure out how to slow down JJ Watt again
The Cincinnati Bengals just couldn’t do it last week. DE JJ Watt was remarkable against the Bengals, and though he only finished up with five tackles and a sack, he was all over the field and caused chaos for QB Andy Dalton and the gang. The Houston defense absolutely cannot play better than it did this past week, as it held the Bengals to just 198 yards of offense and kept them without a third down conversion. Of course, the catalyst of this team is Watt, and it really seems as though when he is non-existent, the defense is non-existent. When the Pats and the Texans played five weeks ago, Watt had just two tackles and two assists, but more importantly, he didn’t have a single sack, nor did he really get his hands on QB Tom Brady. The end result? Brady went 21-of-35 for 296 yards with four TDs and no picks. It is clear if Brady gets time to sit in the pocket and throw the football, he is going to pick any secondary in the league apart, especially against this Houston secondary that has been prone to giving up some big time plays.

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Key #3: Arian Foster can’t have an off day after a huge day against the Bengals
RB Arian Foster rushed for 140 yards on 32 carries against the Bengals in the Wild Card round of the postseason, and he is now the only player in the history of the league to rush for at least 100 yards in each of his first three playoff games. What was amazing is that Foster did that against a great defensive front, and he didn’t have a single carry for more than 17 yards on the day. Foster now has eight 100+ yard games this year. The team went 8-0 SU and 6-2 ATS in those games. There were only four games in which he was held to 50 yards or fewer, and the team lost three of those four outings. In the one exception of a game against the Tennessee Titans, RB Justin Forsett rushed for 64 yards to pick up the slack. Of course, one of those games where Foster was held down came against these very same Patriots, as he had just 46 yards on 15 carries. He did score a touchdown on the day, but it wasn’t nearly good enough to get the job done. New England did finish the year ranked ninth in the NFL against the rush, but there were better defenses that Foster has run against in his career.

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