Posts Tagged ‘football props’

Monday Night Football Props: Colts vs. Chargers Predictions 10/14

October 14th, 2013 by Adam Markowitz (Bankroll Sports Columnist) | Posted in NFL Football   Comments Off on Monday Night Football Props: Colts vs. Chargers Predictions 10/14
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Ryan Mathews ChargersOur Indianapolis Colts vs. San Diego Chargers picks are set and ready to go at Bankroll Sports, but if you’re looking for a bit of a different way to take advantage of some of the Monday Night Football prop bets, you’ve come to the right place. Today, we’re going to be breaking down some of the best NFL props on the board for Monday Night Football, all of which come courtesy of Diamond Sportsbook.

Andrew Luck Under 280.5 Passing Yards – We’re really not all that sure at what the oddsmakers have been looking at here with Luck. He hasn’t come anywhere near this total of passing yards but once all season long in a game, and though he is going against a bad secondary, he also is only throwing the ball right around 30 times per game on the season. If Luck is only going to put the pill in the air 30 times in this game, he is going to have to average right around nine yards per attempt, and we know that he isn’t going to do that more often than not. Especially at +100 odds, we have to think that this is a winning bet more than half the time to make us winners.

Coby Fleener To Score a Touchdown (+125) – Fleener has had himself a good second season, and without TE Dwayne Allen there to steal his targets, the Stanford grad is really shining. He has scored a touchdown in two of his three games this year, but he has been targeted in the end zone in four of the five. Luck is going to complete more of his shots into the end zone than you’d think, and we have to remember that this San Diego defense has had no luck whatsoever defending against tight ends this year. Remember Monday Night Football the first time that the Chargers played on it this year? They allowed three touchdowns to the tight ends of the Houston Texans. We only need one in this one, and we think that Fleener is going to be the man that gets it in at least half of his games.

Philip Rivers Under 290.5 Passing Yards – Rivers has put up three games with at least 400 passing yards this year, but this is a very good Indianapolis secondary that he is going up against that ranks fifth in the NFL against the pass. Sure, Rivers could rack up a bunch of garbage yards, and that might end up beating us, but we are believers that this is going to be a close game one way or the other. Remember that in the two games where Rivers didn’t throw for 400 yards, he also didn’t even throw for 200 yards. Eventually, he’ll settle somewhere in the middle, and we have to think that right around 250 yards is about right for the man from NC State.

Keenan Allen Over 4 Receptions – Asking Allen to get to four receptions to push and five to win seems like a decent bet to us at this point. The rookie out of Cal has had 11 receptions, but more importantly 19 targets in his last two games, proving that he is the man that Rivers is going to love to throw the rock to when he gets the chance to do so. Some of the shots have been deep that Allen has gotten, and though that isn’t really going to help us in terms of receptions, we do think that quantity in this case will be good enough to outshine the lack of quality that some of the throws have had to Allen over the course of the last two weeks.

Antonio Gates To Not Score a Touchdown – It’s only a pick ’em prop, and we think that “no” should be the favorite here by a sizeable margin. The Colts haven’t allowed a tight end to find the end zone against them this year, and in most of the games that they have played, tight ends have caught two passes or fewer. Gates has had himself a good season, but he isn’t getting all of the looks from Rivers in the end zone as he used to. We think that this is a man that could be in for a decent night, but the end zone isn’t in the cards more often than not in all likelihood.

MNF Prop Picks: Steelers vs. Bengals Predictions 9/16/13

September 16th, 2013 by Adam Markowitz (Bankroll Sports Columnist) | Posted in NFL Football   Comments Off on MNF Prop Picks: Steelers vs. Bengals Predictions 9/16/13
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Bengals vs. SteelersOur Pittsburgh Steelers vs. Cincinnati Bengals picks are set and ready to go at Bankroll Sports, but if you’re looking for a bit of a different way to take advantage of some of the Monday Night Football prop bets, you’ve come to the right place. Today, we’re going to be breaking down some of the best NFL props on the board for Monday Night Football, all of which come courtesy of Diamond Sportsbook.

Ben Roethlisberger Over 1.5 Touchdown Passes (-125) – It’s going to be tough to think that Big Ben is going to be held under two touchdowns again in this one. The Steelers have to have a better offensive team than what we saw last week out of the Titans, and we think that some are going to be fooled into thinking that they are going to just be a dud of a team offensively once again this season. What we do know though, is that there really isn’t much of a way to score a touchdown on this team otherwise. Roethlisberger can throw it to a suspect group of receivers, but the team just can’t run the football. It’ll be really, really tough to get into the end zone on the ground this whole year for Pittsburgh, and as a result, Big Ben is going to have to throw at least three quarters of the touchdowns to lead this team to victories.

Ben Roethlisberger Total Over 0.5 Interceptions (-200) – It’s a steep price, but Roethlisberger is going to get picked off at least two times out of three on the road against a Cincinnati defense that forces a ton of turnovers and puts all sorts of pressure on the quarterback. The implication is that Pittsburgh is going to throw the ball at least 36 times in this game, and if that turns out to be the case, we would need a pick in 2.8% of his passes. That’s not a bad ratio as it is, and Roethlisberger should oblige with at least one ball that gets taken back by a man dressed in red and black.

Giovani Bernard Over 49.5 Rushing + Receiving Yards (-115) – This might be a bit of a donkey play, but we think that the time is coming for Bernard to take over in the backfield over RB BenJarvus Green-Ellis. This is a good game to do it as well. RB Chris Johnson ran the ball a ton last week, and he ultimately didn’t get anywhere against a Pittsburgh defense that remains stout on the inside. That could give the opportunity to get Bernard in the game more often, as Green-Ellis is going to have a short leash before getting pulled. We don’t need a heck of a lot out of Bernard, and we know that he is going to be used in the passing game a bit as well. Getting to 50 yards isn’t out of the question, and it is something that could very easily happen on just seven or eight plays in the game.

Longest Touchdown of the Game Over 40.5 Yards (-115) – This is a matter of perception versus reality. The perception is there that the Steelers are going to score 10 points and 10 points only every single time they come on the field, and the perception is there that the Bengals are going to be able to hold this club down for most of the game. The reality is that the Steelers have no choice but to put the ball in the air quite a bit, and that might mean taking some shots down the field. The other reality? No one on the planet is successfully defending WR AJ Green, who can go off for a 40+ yard score at any given point.

Monday Night Football Props: Raiders vs. Broncos Predictions 9/23

September 15th, 2013 by Adam Markowitz (Bankroll Sports Columnist) | Posted in NFL Football   Comments Off on Monday Night Football Props: Raiders vs. Broncos Predictions 9/23
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Demaryius Thomas BroncosOur Oakland Raiders vs. Denver Broncos picks are set and ready to go at Bankroll Sports, but if you’re looking for a bit of a different way to take advantage of some of the Monday Night Football prop bets, you’ve come to the right place. Today, we’re going to be breaking down some of the best NFL props on the board for Monday Night Football, all of which come courtesy of Diamond Sportsbook.

Will There Be a Score in First 6:30 of the Game? – If you really believe that the Raiders have the goods to be able to slow down this Denver offense in any respect, the answer to this prop is definitively going to be “no.” Many feel as though this game is just going to be a ridiculous shootout, and we aren’t all that sure that that is going to be the case. Monday Night Football games tend to start just a bit slowly in relation to some of the other games on the docket, and this one is going to be no exception whatsoever. Especially if Oakland gets the ball first, we feel pretty darn good about this one, knowing that RB Darren McFadden and the ground game will take at least a couple minutes off of the clock before turning it over to QB Peyton Manning and the Broncos. This could be easy pickings at +120.

Total Punts Made in the Game Over 8.5 (-120) – Denver games haven’t exactly been known for their punts over the course of the first two weeks of the season, but Oakland games have. The Raiders might not have P Shane Lechler any longer, but they do have P Marquette King, who is averaging almost 49 yards per punt this year. The stat that might really surprise you? Denver has already punted the ball 12 times this year. If the Broncos are going to punt even five times in this one, we have all the confidence in the world that the Raiders are going to boot it away another four even though they are only averaging three punts per game. Both of these teams will end up with over 70 punts when push comes to shove this season, and if that’s the case, getting to nine shouldn’t be all that difficult more often than not.

Peyton Manning Under 315.5 Passing Yards (+105) – Doesn’t Manning have to get held under 300 yards at some point in a game this year? It seems as though we are more just hoping against hope that he doesn’t do it in this one. In actuality though, we have a justification for it. Oakland has a secondary that is competent and is completely capable of shutting down some of the best passing attacks in the league. DB Charles Woodson is still one of the best in the league, even at his age, and he is showing that he has something left in the tank when he takes to the field against some of the best in the biz. Oakland is going to play ball control offense, and the end result could be a lot lower statistics than most of the Broncos are used to getting.

Demaryius Thomas Under 5 Receptions (+110)
Wes Welker Under 6.5 Receptions (+105)
Eric Decker Under 5 Receptions (-105)
Julius Thomas Under 5.5 Receptions (-115)

Odds have it, someone is going to beat us here, but if you add all of this up, you’ll see a total of 22 receptions between these four players, and that’s not including anything else that Manning might end up doing with his passes. It’s just not a great percentage play to be banking on all of these ‘overs’. One week, it was Decker that caught nine passes. The next it was Welker that caught nine. Manning is going to take whatever matchup is out there that can get the ball up the field the most efficiently, and that means there are going to be receivers that are taken out of the game each and every week, even against Oakland. Remember that the Broncos aren’t actually going to rack up 450 yards of offense every single week, and they aren’t going to really score 40+ points every single week either. These receivers give us a great opportunity to cash in on what are some really weak props in our eyes, as it would take a minimum of 30 Manning completions in this game (an absolutely insane number) to even come close to beating us completely.

Sunday Night Football Prop Picks: Giants vs. Cowboys Predictions

September 8th, 2013 by Adam Markowitz (Bankroll Sports Columnist) | Posted in NFL Football   Comments Off on Sunday Night Football Prop Picks: Giants vs. Cowboys Predictions
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Giants vs. CowboysOur New York Giants vs. Dallas Cowboys picks are set and ready to go at Bankroll Sports, but if you’re looking for a bit of a different way to take advantage of some of the Sunday Night Football prop bets, you’ve come to the right place. Today, we’re going to be breaking down some of the best NFL props on the board for Sunday Night Football, all of which come courtesy of Diamond Sportsbook.

Longest Touchdown in the Game Over 47.5 Yards – Last year when these two played, there wasn’t a single touchdown that went for more than 40 yards. That being said, this time around, we see a lot of potential, especially on New York’s side. The preseason opened up with a bomb of a touchdown from QB Eli Manning to WR Victor Cruz, and the matchup is there for that same thing to happen again in this one. Cruz is going to be running free in the slot quite a bit, especially with Dallas likely blitzing on over half of the team’s passing downs. Add in there the fact that RB DeMarco Murray has a keen nose for the big time play, and the makings are there that there will be at least one of these really long touchdowns when push comes to shove on Sunday Night Football.

DeMarco Murray -5.5 Rushing + Receiving Yards vs. David Wilson – We would have loved this NFL prop bet even more had RB Andre Brown not broken his leg in the preseason. That being said though, Head Coach Tom Coughlin very well could be counting on more than just Wilson to tote the rock in this one, and he might have to behind a very suspect offensive line that is going to likely be missing both C David Baas and T David Diehl. Murray is a man that is running with gusto right now, and ever since he was benched for that fumble in the preseason, he has been a man on a mission. We have a great feeling that Murray is going to be rumbling for at least 100 yards in this one, while Wilson might struggle to ever really get traction. Murray is clearly the better bet here.

Victor Cruz +12.5 Receiving Yards vs. Dez Bryant – Bryant catches absolutely everything that comes his way, but we aren’t all that sure that Cruz isn’t the better bet here. We’ve already highlighted the possibility that the salsa dancing star can make things happen in the slot in this one against a Dallas secondary that is relatively suspect, but we want to focus in on Bryant here. Last season in two games versus the G-Men, Bryant had just a total of nine catches. Yes, those nine catches did go for some big time yardage numbers, but even getting to 100 might not necessarily be enough in this one. We know that the Giants know what’s coming this week with Bryant (and Miles Austin) on the outside. What we don’t know is whether Cruz, who had two lackluster games last season against Dallas, can be stopped with the new blitzing scheme that is going to be in place for the boys from “Big D.”

Superbowl 47 Prop Bets: Joe Flacco Super Bowl Props

January 27th, 2013 by Adam Markowitz (Bankroll Sports Columnist) | Posted in NFL Football   Comments Off on Superbowl 47 Prop Bets: Joe Flacco Super Bowl Props
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Joe FlaccoFor years and years, the debate has raged about QB Joe Flacco and whether or not he should be considered an elite quarterback or not. He doesn’t have the numbers of a truly elite star, but he has made it here to battle it out on the Super Bowl 47 odds, and this year, he has bested some of the best quarterbacks to ever play the game. Check out some of the Joe Flacco Super Bowl props available at SportBet Sportsbook

Passing Yards Over/Under 235.5: Flacco threw for 240, 331, and 282 in his three respective playoff games, and he did show against some pretty darn good defenses. This time around, he gets a San Francisco ‘D’ that has looked shoddy at times in the second season, but generally has been awesome over the course of the whole year, ranking fourth in the league. This is a big hill to climb for Flacco, and we think that getting +130 on this number of yards seems to be a nice price.

Will Flacco Throw an Interception?: Flacco is playing the best ball of his career, and for all intents and purposes, it has been basically five full games worth of game time since he has thrown a pick. The 49ers haven’t been as ball hawking in the secondary as you might think this year, especially of late. -155 says that Flacco will toss one to a guy wearing the wrong color, but +135 seems to be the better of the options.

Flacco Throws a TD Pass or an INT first?: Again, we question as to whether Flacco really is going to throw a pick or not in this game. He has taken such good care of the football that we think we have to stick with him to toss a touchdown before a pick, though that -210 price is a bit steep for our preference.

Pass Attempts Over/Under 33.5: You have to think that the Ravens are going to play this game from behind at some point, just off of the NFL betting lines, and that would insinuate that Flacco is going to toss it at least 34 times. However, he threw it just 34 times against the Broncos, and there were over five quarters of football played in that game. With OC Jim Caldwell calling the shots, it’ll be more run and less pass in the Super Bowl.

Longest Completion Over/Under 41.5 Yards: We saw the Falcons tear this secondary up for big time passes in the NFC Championship Game, but that just isn’t going to be the case this time around. Flacco does throw some deep balls, but not as often as it seems. Plus, the likelihood that Flacco hits a pass like the one he did to Jacoby Jones that forced the game in Denver to overtime isn’t all that good. This is just too many yards to expect Flacco to uncork one.

TD Passes Over/Under 1.5: The 49ers are tough to throw on, and they’re tough to score on, too. However, the Falcons did the job in the NFC title game, and Flacco has just been absolutely on fire over the course of the last several weeks. It’s only +100 for him to throw more than one TD in this one, and we think that there’s a decent chance of greater than 50/50 that he does find the end zone through the air twice.

Rushing Yards Over/Under 3.5: Over the course of the last two games, Flacco has a total of 19 rushing yards, which sort of insinuates that he is going to get on the go at least a couple of times in this game. However, we’re really not all that sure that he is going to have the ability to do that. Remember that he had a negative number of rushing yards against five of his final six foes in the regular season, and he had -3 yards against the Colts, too.

Scores a Rushing Touchdown?: Let’s be realistic here about Flacco. He isn’t rushing for a touchdown in this game. He did so three times over the course of the season, and that now covers 19 games. However, do some quick math here. Three rushing touchdowns divided by 19 games means that Flacco has found his way into the end zone in one out of 6+ games. That +525 price doesn’t seem so bad when you look at it that way, and it seems better than a -750 price seems.

Superbowl 47 Prop Bets: Colin Kaepernick Super Bowl Props

January 27th, 2013 by Adam Markowitz (Bankroll Sports Columnist) | Posted in NFL Football   Comments Off on Superbowl 47 Prop Bets: Colin Kaepernick Super Bowl Props
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5DimesQB Colin Kaepernick for the San Francisco 49ers is one of the most dynamic players in the entire league. Check out some of the Colin Kaepernick prop bets that are on the board right now to bet a 5Dimes Sportsbook

Passing Yards Over/Under 218.5: For all of the great things that Kaepernick has done over the course of the last three months or so, one of the things that he hasn’t always done well is throw the football. Sure, he threw for 233 yards against the Falcons and 263 against the Packers in his first two starts, but a lot of what he was doing was throwing the ball down the field to WR Michael Crabtree and TE Vernon Davis. In the end, he has only been asked to throw the ball a total of 52 times here in the second season. In spite of the fact that Kaepernick has been beyond this number in his last five games, we aren’t all that sure that this isn’t a 50/50 proposition. You can get the ‘under’ 218.5 at +135.

Will Kaepernick Throw an Interception?: Yes is a -120 proposition, while No chimes in at +100, essentially making this a 50/50 call. And that’s about right. Kaepernick has had four games in his last eight in which he has tossed at least one interception. It seems fitting to us that the ferocious Baltimore secondary is going to get at least one off of the youngster, and -120 is about the right price to make us want to bet on him to get picked off.

Kaepernick Throws a TD Pass or an INT first?: It’s not all that often that Kaepernick gets picked off, but if you’re a believer that he will in this game, you have to think that there is at least a one in three chance that he will get intercepted before he throws a touchdown pass. If this is what you believe, you have to take the INT first at +235.

Pass Attempts Over/Under 27.5: There really hasn’t been a heck of a lot that Kaepernick has been asked to do, and the fact that we can bet on him to average fewer than eight passes per quarter over the course of this game at +105 seems to be a great bet to us.

Longest Completion Over/Under 40.5 Yards: Kaepernick has taken plenty of shots down the field, and he makes a lot of that happen with his legs. We’ve seen this Baltimore secondary get nailed for some big ones over the course of the last several weeks, and we have to think that there will be at least a few passes, probably right at the beginning of the game, where Kaepernick goes for broke. At least one should cover at least 41 yards, and +105 says that that will happen at least half the time.

TD Passes Over/Under 1.5: With the way that Kaepernick runs the ball and the way that RB Frank Gore runs it near the goal line, it’s tough to think that there are going to be oodles of touchdowns to go around for the 49ers’ passing game. We definitely think that one is a good possibility, but a second touchdown pass seems to be asking for a lot from a man that is only going to throw it 20-25 times in our eyes in the game. ‘Under’ 1.5 at -125 feels like an awesome price.

Rushing Attempts Over/Under 6.5: It seems like a slam dunk to think that Kaepernick is going to run the ball at least seven times in this game, but remember that Atlanta forced him to only run it twice. The Ravens will be watching that tape over and over again over the course of the last two weeks to try to figure out keep him in the pocket.

Rushing Yards Over/Under 43.5: Don’t do it! It’s a trap! We said that last week when Kaepernick’s over/under was 63.5 yards, and we’re saying it again, especially since we can get +140 on him to not go beyond this number. Kaepernick hasn’t gotten beyond 31 yards rushing in four of his last five games.

Scores a Rushing Touchdown?: Here’s where the price is really right for us. Kaepernick had a rushing touchdown just twice as a starter prior to the playoffs, and he didn’t have a single rushing score in any of his final three games of the regular season. We know that he is capable of doing damage, but even at -160, we have to think that Kaepernick isn’t going to score.

Super Bowl Bets: Alicia Keys National Anthem Super Bowl 47 Props

January 27th, 2013 by Adam Markowitz (Bankroll Sports Columnist) | Posted in NFL Football   Comments Off on Super Bowl Bets: Alicia Keys National Anthem Super Bowl 47 Props
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Alicia Keys Super BowlThe Alicia Keys National Anthem for the Super Bowl is one of the most talked about topics right now for entertainment junkies going into the week of the big game. She promises us a very special rendition of the Star Spangled Banner, and that could make for some interesting Super Bowl prop bets for sure.

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Alicia Keys National Anthem Over/Under 2:15: This is one of the awesome props on the board and is one to keep a very close eye on. Just naturally, one would think that this is the Super Bowl and that the performers get all amped up and hold some notes and words out a bit longer than normal. However, even as the performances have gotten more and more elaborate, the song is still designed to be sung in roughly 1:35. Over the course of the last several years, the Super Bowl National Anthem times have been 2:07, 1:54, 1:56, 1:33, 1:55, 1:40, 2:08, 2:10, 1:35, and 1:56, and the 1:56 was the Whitney Houston Super Bowl National Anthem. Going beyond that 2:15 mark is going to be a hefty order.

Will Alicia Keys Be Booed During or After the National Anthem?: There is only a “yes” option at Bovada, which really doesn’t do us a heck of a lot of good. If Christina Aguilera didn’t get booed when she left words out of the National Anthem, there’s very little chance that Keys is going to get booed unless she just totally screws the pooch.

Will Alicia Keys Forget or Omit at Least One Word of the Official National Anthem?: Thanks, Christina. If she didn’t blow an entire verse of the anthem, perhaps we wouldn’t be in this position where we would be talking about performers taking words out of the song. Of course, there’s something to be said about the fact that Keys is promising some sort of special rendition, the likes of which we have never heard before, and that might at least make this prop worth watching, though we have to think that there is a significantly better chance that she puts all the words in than leaves some of the words out.

Will Alicia Keys Add at Least One New Word to the Official National Anthem?: Here’s something that’s a little more interesting. Keys is a heck of a performer, and she has been known to cross the line every now and again to do some very interesting renditions of songs. We’re not all that sure where Keys would be adding a word, but who the heck knows with her?