Posts Tagged ‘election odds’

Presidential Election Odds – State-By-State Clinton vs Trump Odds

August 31st, 2016 by Lou Palumbo (Head Columnist) | Posted in Entertainment & Exotic Odds   Comments Off on Presidential Election Odds – State-By-State Clinton vs Trump Odds
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The 2016 presidential election is approaching fast, which can be either good news or bad news, depending on how you feel about politics.   If you are someone who is enamored by the election cycle & enjoys the frenzy that comes with election night, you’ll want check out the entertainment odds at Bovada Sportsbook as well as the primary odds at 5Dimes.  Both books have a lot of different 2016 presidential election odds.  If you are someone who finds that politics give you a migraine and never seem to have any vested interest in election night, betting on political futures may be exactly what you need to make November 2nd a more tolerable (even exciting), day.  You can expect a lot of volatility in these odds as events unfold (or the candidates mouth’s open) over the course of the next 15 months.

As of the end of August, Hillary Clinton remains a big favorite in this upcoming election over Trump.  If you think Trump can change voters minds in the debates, now may be your time to place a bet on the Donald, where bookmakers are paying around 3 to 1 should he defeat Clinton in November.  The Libertarian nominee, Gary Johnson remains a massive underdog (280 to 1) at most sportsbooks despite the recent press he’s been getting.

There are some interesting state-by-state (Trump vs. Clinton) odds out there (see state by state odds below) that are worth taking a look at.  In the key battleground states of Florida & Ohio, Hilary Clinton remains overwhelming favorite.  Clinton is also a -160 favorite in the fairly conservative state of North Carolina.   In Indiana, the home state of Mike Pence (Trump’s VP pick), Hillary Clinton is currently a 5.5 to 1 underdog.  You can check the list below for all the state by state presidential election odds.

2016 Presidential Election Odds Update (Current Futures) @ Bovada (as of 8/31/16):
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2016 Presidential General Election Winner:
Hillary Clinton – 1 to 3 (-300)
Donald Trump – 2.8 to 1 (+280)
Bernie Sanders – 100 to 1 (+10000)
Gary Johnson – 280 to 1 (+28000)

Hillary Clinton Electoral Votes Odds (Over / Under):
Over 369.5 +230
Under 369.5 -310

Donald Trump Electoral Votes Odds (Over / Under):
Over 369.5 +655
Under 369.5 -1365

Senate Majority at the beginning o 115 Congress:
Republican Controlled Senate: 1.7 to 1 (+170)
Democratic Controlled Senate: 3.8 to 1 (-380)

State By State 2016 Presidential Election Odds From 5 Dimes (as of 8/31/16):
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Tue 11/8 301 Republican candidate wins Alabama  -3000
8:00AM 302 Democratic candidate wins Alabama  +1300
Tue 11/8 303 Republican candidate wins Alaska  -5250
8:00AM 304 Democratic candidate wins Alaska  +1750
Tue 11/8 305 Republican candidate wins Arizona  -260
8:00AM 306 Democratic candidate wins Arizona  +180
Tue 11/8 309 Republican candidate wins California  +1100
8:00AM 310 Democratic candidate wins California  -2300
Tue 11/8 311 Republican candidate wins Colorado  +450
8:00AM 312 Democratic candidate wins Colorado  -750
Tue 11/8 313 Republican candidate wins Connecticut  +1100
8:00AM 314 Democratic candidate wins Connecticut  -2300
Tue 11/8 317 Republican candidate wins Florida  +230
8:00AM 318 Democratic candidate wins Florida  -310
Tue 11/8 319 Republican candidate wins Georgia  -190
8:00AM 320 Democratic candidate wins Georgia  +150
Tue 11/8 325 Republican candidate wins Illinois  +880
8:00AM 326 Democratic candidate wins Illinois  -1800
Tue 11/8 327 Republican candidate wins Indiana  -1050
8:00AM 328 Democratic candidate wins Indiana  +550
Tue 11/8 329 Republican candidate wins Iowa  +180
8:00AM 330 Democratic candidate wins Iowa  -260
Tue 11/8 333 Republican candidate wins Kentucky  -4500
8:00AM 334 Democratic candidate wins Kentucky  +1500
Tue 11/8 335 Republican candidate wins Louisiana  -4500
8:00AM 336 Democratic candidate wins Louisiana  +1500
Tue 11/8 339 Republican candidate wins Maryland  +3000
8:00AM 340 Democratic candidate wins Maryland  -11000
Tue 11/8 341 Republican candidate wins Massachussetts  +1200
8:00AM 342 Democratic candidate wins Massachussetts  -2600
Tue 11/8 343 Republican candidate wins Michigan  +400
8:00AM 344 Democratic candidate wins Michigan  -600
Tue 11/8 345 Republican candidate wins Minnesota  +425
8:00AM 346 Democratic candidate wins Minnesota  -675
Tue 11/8 349 Republican candidate wins Missouri  -280
8:00AM 350 Democratic candidate wins Missouri  +200
Tue 11/8 353 Republican candidate wins Nebraska  -2300
8:00AM 354 Democratic candidate wins Nebraska  +1100
Tue 11/8 355 Republican candidate wins Nevada  +260
8:00AM 356 Democratic candidate wins Nevada  -380
Tue 11/8 357 Republican candidate wins New Hampshire  +400
8:00AM 358 Democratic candidate wins New Hampshire  -600
Tue 11/8 359 Republican candidate wins New Jersey  +1000
8:00AM 360 Democratic candidate wins New Jersey  -2000
Tue 11/8 361 Republican candidate wins New Mexico  +450
8:00AM 362 Democratic candidate wins New Mexico  -750
Tue 11/8 363 Republican candidate wins New York  +1000
8:00AM 364 Democratic candidate wins New York  -2000
Tue 11/8 365 Republican candidate wins North Carolina  +121
8:00AM 366 Democratic candidate wins North Carolina  -161
Tue 11/8 369 Republican candidate wins Ohio  +250
8:00AM 370 Democratic candidate wins Ohio  -350
Tue 11/8 371 Republican candidate wins Oklahoma  -3250
8:00AM 372 Democratic candidate wins Oklahoma  +1350
Tue 11/8 373 Republican candidate wins Oregon  +450
8:00AM 374 Democratic candidate wins Oregon  -750
Tue 11/8 375 Republican candidate wins Pennsylvania  +330
8:00AM 376 Democratic candidate wins Pennsylvania  -490
Tue 11/8 385 Republican candidate wins Texas  -1200
8:00AM 386 Democratic candidate wins Texas  +600
Tue 11/8 387 Republican candidate wins Utah  -675
8:00AM 388 Democratic candidate wins Utah  +425
Tue 11/8 391 Republican candidate wins Virginia  +500
8:00AM 392 Democratic candidate wins Virginia  -900
Tue 11/8 393 Republican candidate wins Washington  +800
8:00AM 394 Democratic candidate wins Washington  -1700
Tue 11/8 395 Republican candidate wins West Virginia  -13500
8:00AM 396 Democratic candidate wins West Virginia  +3500
Tue 11/8 397 Republican candidate wins Wisconsin  +500
8:00AM 398 Democratic candidate wins Wisconsin  -900

 

2012 Presidential Election Odds: Barack Obama 2012 Reelection Odds

October 30th, 2012 by Adam Markowitz (Bankroll Sports Columnist) | Posted in Entertainment & Exotic Odds   Comments Off on 2012 Presidential Election Odds: Barack Obama 2012 Reelection Odds
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With a little more than a week until Election Day, presidential betting action has been heating up as Barack Obama and Mitt Romney battle it out to see who is the next President of the United States of America. Romney and Obama have been ramping up their campaigns in the homestretch with each making several stops per day in key battleground states in hopes of reaching the magical number of 270 electoral votes needed to become the next POTUS.

The betting odds for the president have been in favor of President Obama since his Inauguration Day in 2009. Although he had a momentary scare with his poll numbers and betting odds free-falling after his first performance of the debate season, his last two debate showings helped stop the Romney momentum and has helped the presidential betting lines remain relatively static over the last few weeks. Currently, President Obama is a -200 favorite and Governor Romney is a +170 underdog at GT Bets Sportsbook.

One of the more interesting subplots of the political betting spectrum this election cycle has been that the betting sites have shaded more in favor of Romney than reputed polling sites like FiveThirtyEight. As of Sunday night, FiveThirtyEight gives President Obama a 73.6% chance to win, equivalent to making Obama a -279 favorite. Perhaps this could mean that a slight majority of gamblers prefer Romney to Obama or that gamblers don’t put much weight in the calculations that these sites make.

What’s certain is that President Obama has a much clearer route to remaining in the Oval Office than Governor Romney does. Obama has more solid electoral votes than Romney and thus does not need to win as many of the swing states in order to secure re-election. Of utmost importance to both parties with regards to these swing states, is the Buckeye State. Romney would be extremely hard-pressed to claim victory in this election without winning Ohio as Obama would have the election all but locked up if Ohio went blue. Both parties have rapidly mobilized their resources in this state and by November 6 it is unlikely that any Ohio voter has not been robo-dialed, e-mailed or snail mailed in hopes of securing their vote. Other than Ohio, Colorado, Nevada, New Hampshire, Virginia, Florida, Iowa, and Wisconsin are the important swing states in this one and voters there can expect to be harangued heavily over the next eight days.

For the fourth straight presidential election, heading up to Election Day there is not a clear winner between incumbent President Barack Obama and challenger Governor Mitt Romney. Even though Romney is still trailing, he still has a very sizeable chance to win the election according to both the presidential betting odds and the prognostication websites dedicated to determining who the next president will be. Once again, the presidency will come down to a handful of swing states that have the power to decide who will be America’s next president.

Anyone who has paid even cursory attention to the election, knows that Ohio and its 18 electoral votes is of the foremost importance of any swing state. Currently, Barack Obama is seen as a -170 favorite per the state of Ohio betting lines with Mitt Romney being a +130 underdog. However, respected political site FiveThirtyEight is much more bullish on President Obama’s odds, giving him a 73.5% chance to win the state. Both candidates will be doing much of their campaigning in this crucial key state over the next week, highlighting its importance in the election. No Republican has ever won the presidency without winning Ohio, so this race is Mitt Romney’s top priority in order to succeed Barack Obama.

Although it is only worth 9 electoral votes, the race in Colorado is an intriguing one because it is as close to a toss-up as any other state battle. Mitt Romney is listed as a -145 favorite to win the state according to GT Bets Sportsbook despite the fact that FiveThirtyEight gives Obama a 57% advantage in the state. Recently released polls from PPP, Grove, Keating Research, Marist, and Purple Strategies all also give the advantage to the sitting president and Obama has recent history on his side as well, winning the state handily over John McCain during the 2008 election.

Pennsylvania isn’t much of a battleground state this election, but the fact that it has 20 electoral votes makes it very valuable in getting to the magical number of 270. Obama is listed as a heavy favorite (-600) to take the Keystone State and Romney is a sizeable underdog (+400). Unlike these other states though, Pennsylvania has been de-centralized with neither candidate running a campaign ad on either the state’s television or radio waves during the election cycle and neither candidate has made more than a few campaign stops in the state with none coming during the month of October.

The mecca of American sports betting is up for grounds in this election despite Obama coasting to a victory in Nevada in 2008, winning the state by 12.5%. This time, the state is projected to only be decided by a few percentage points one way or the other. Obama is a -300 favorite to take the state by the individual state betting lines with Romney listed as a +220 underdog.

It may be an undercard to the presidential race, but senate betting odds are now up for gamblers to wager on. Democrats currently control the Senate and are expected to retain control of the upper house of Congress in 2012, even though 21 Democratic Party candidates have their seats on the line compared to only 10 Republican seats up for grabs. GT Bets Sportsbook currently has the odds on Democrats gaining control of the Senate at -300 with Republicans listed as a +220 underdog to either gain control or split control. Before this election, Democrats held 51 seats in the US Senate compared to only 47 seats for the Republicans with 2 seats being held by independents. Democrats are heavy favorites in most of the races and are expected to keep the majority.

Some individual senate races have garnered a lot of publicity, possibly none more so than the race in Missouri between Claire McCaskill (D) and Todd Akin (R). Todd Akin set off a political firestorm earlier in the race when he claimed that women could not get pregnant from “legitimate rape” because the female body had hormones that would cause her to be infertile. This humongous gaffe immediately swung the race for McCaskill who has been a strong favorite ever sense and was a big blow to the Republicans who saw Missouri as a winnable state for the GOP. Akin resisted calls from Republican leadership to bow out of the race but is very unlikely to win the seat as a +450 underdog per the Senate betting lines compared to McCaskill with her -750 favorite status.

Virginia has been the center of some controversy as well and there is a much more open race going on between Tim Kaine (D) and George Allen (R). Kaine is the favorite right now with GT Bets Sportsbook listing him as a -265 favorite and Allen placed as a moderate +185 underdog. Allen has gotten a recent boost in spending though with casino magnate Sheldon Adelson recently donating $1.5 million to one of Allen’s super-PACs. Expect to see a flood of ads on local television stations due to the influx of money in Allen’s warchest.

Massachusetts may be one of the most liberal states in the nation, but they have had success recently with Republicans moving toward the center and stealing seats away from Democrats. Scott Brown (R) hopes to continue this trend, but is a +310 underdog to Elizabeth Warren (D) -430. Warren appears to be pulling away in polls with the latest PPP poll showing here with a 9 point lead, but anything can happen in the run-up to Election Day.

2012 Presidential Election Update (Current Presidential Election Odds) @ GT Bets (as of 11/5/12):
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Politics Other Sports Money Line
2012 US Presidential Election
Tue 11/6 1001 Barack Obama wins 2012 election -340
10:00AM 1002 Mitt Romney wins 2012 election +280

Tue 11/6 1103 Barack Obama wins Colorado -150
10:00AM 1104 Mitt Romney wins Colorado +110

Tue 11/6 1105 Barack Obama wins Florida +215
10:00AM 1106 Mitt Romney wins Florida -295

Tue 11/6 1109 Barack Obama wins Iowa -260
10:00AM 1110 Mitt Romney wins Iowa +180

Tue 11/6 1111 Barack Obama wins Maine -4500
10:00AM 1112 Mitt Romney wins Maine +1500

Tue 11/6 1113 Barack Obama wins Michigan -750
10:00AM 1114 Mitt Romney wins Michigan +450

Tue 11/6 1115 Barack Obama wins Minnesota -1050
10:00AM 1116 Mitt Romney wins Minnesota +550

Tue 11/6 1117 Barack Obama wins Nevada -1500
10:00AM 1118 Mitt Romney wins Nevada +700

Tue 11/6 1119 Barack Obama wins New Hampshire -245
10:00AM 1120 Mitt Romney wins New Hampshire +175

Tue 11/6 1121 Barack Obama wins North Carolina +400
10:00AM 1122 Mitt Romney wins North Carolina -600

Tue 11/6 1123 Barack Obama wins Ohio -260
10:00AM 1124 Mitt Romney wins Ohio +180

Tue 11/6 1125 Barack Obama wins Oregon -4500
10:00AM 1126 Mitt Romney wins Oregon +1500

Tue 11/6 1127 Barack Obama wins Pennsylvania -530
10:00AM 1128 Mitt Romney wins Pennsylvania +350

Tue 11/6 1129 Barack Obama wins Virginia -140
10:00AM 1130 Mitt Romney wins Virginia +100

Tue 11/6 1131 Barack Obama wins Wisconsin -320
10:00AM 1132 Mitt Romney wins Wisconsin +240

2012 US Presidential Election – Electoral College
Tue 11/6 1221 Barack Obama electoral votes over 249½ -1200
10:00AM 1222 Barack Obama electoral votes under 249½ +600

Tue 11/6 1223 Barack Obama electoral votes over 259½ -530
10:00AM 1224 Barack Obama electoral votes under 259½ +350

Tue 11/6 1225 Barack Obama electoral votes over 279½ -260
10:00AM 1226 Barack Obama electoral votes under 279½ +180

Tue 11/6 1227 Barack Obama electoral votes over 289½ -145
10:00AM 1228 Barack Obama electoral votes under 289½ +105

Tue 11/6 1229 Barack Obama electoral votes over 294½ -115
10:00AM 1230 Barack Obama electoral votes under 294½ -125

Tue 11/6 1231 Barack Obama electoral votes over 299½ +115
10:00AM 1232 Barack Obama electoral votes under 299½ -155

Tue 11/6 1233 Barack Obama electoral votes over 309½ +210
10:00AM 1234 Barack Obama electoral votes under 309½ -290

Tue 11/6 1261 Electoral College to be tied 269-269 +2500
10:00AM 1262 Electoral College not tied 269-269 -5000

2012 US Presidential Election – Popular Vote
Tue 11/6 1303 Barack Obama popular vote -0.49999% -150
10:00AM 1304 Mitt Romney popular vote +0.49999% +110

Tue 11/6 1305 Barack Obama popular vote -0.99999% -105
10:00AM 1306 Mitt Romney popular vote +0.99999% -135

Tue 11/6 1305 Barack Obama popular vote -1.99999% +175
10:00AM 1306 Mitt Romney popular vote +1.99999% -245

Tue 11/6 1315 Barack Obama popular vote +0.49999% -230
10:00AM 1316 Mitt Romney popular vote -0.49999% +170

Tue 11/6 1391 Gary Johnson popular vote over 0.49999% -600
10:00AM 1392 Gary Johnson popular vote under 0.49999% +400

Tue 11/6 1393 Gary Johnson popular vote over 0.99999% +100
10:00AM 1394 Gary Johnson popular vote under 0.99999% -140

Tue 11/6 1395 Gary Johnson popular vote over 1.49999% +210
10:00AM 1396 Gary Johnson popular vote under 1.49999% -290

2012 US Presidential Election – Electoral College / Popular Vote
Tue 11/6 1451 Electoral winner to lose popular vote +290
10:00AM 1452 Any other result -410
2012 US Presidential Election – States Won

Tue 11/6 1501 Mitt Romney states won over 26½ +100
10:00AM 1502 Mitt Romney states won under 26½ -140

2012 Congressional Elections – post election control of the Senate
Tue 11/6 1901 Democrats control the Senate -420
10:00AM 1902 Republicans control Senate / Split +300

Tue 11/6 1903 Control of Senate a split +470
10:00AM 1904 Control of Senate not a split -810

Tue 11/6 1905 Republicans control the Senate +585
10:00AM 1905 Democrats control Senate / split -1155
a split = no action

Tue 11/6 1907 Democrats control the Senate -1050
10:00AM 1908 Republicans control the Senate +550

2012 Congressional Elections – post election Senate seats
Tue 11/6 1909 Republicans hold over 47½ Senate seats -145
10:00AM 1910 Republicans hold under 47½ Senate seats +105

2012 Congressional Elections – post election control of the House of Representatives
Tue 11/6 1911 Republicans control the House of Rep. -2750
10:00AM 1912 Democrats control House of Rep / split +1450

2012 US Senate Elections
Tue 11/6 1951 Richard Carmona (D) wins Arizona +500
10:00AM 1952 Jeff Flake (R) wins Arizona -900

Tue 11/6 1953 Chris Murphy (D) wins Connecticut -1350
10:00AM 1954 Linda McMahon (R) wins Connecticut +650

Tue 11/6 1955 Joe Donnelly (D) wins Indiana -310
10:00AM 1956 Richard Mourdock (R) wins Indiana +230

Tue 11/6 1957 Elizabeth Warren (D) wins Massachusetts -400
10:00AM 1958 Scott Brown (R) wins Massachusetts +280

Tue 11/6 1959 Claire McCaskill (D) wins Missouri -475
10:00AM 1960 Todd Akin (R) wins Missouri +325

Tue 11/6 1961 Jon Tester (D) wins Montana +180
10:00AM 1962 Denny Rehberg (R) wins Montana -260

Tue 11/6 1963 Heidi Heitkamp (D) wins North Dakota +750
10:00AM 1964 Rick Berg (R) wins North Dakota -1580

Tue 11/6 1965 Sherrod Brown (D) wins Ohio -1050
10:00AM 1966 Josh Mandel (R) wins Ohio +550

Tue 11/6 1967 Tim Kaine (D) wins Virginia -320
10:00AM 1968 George Allen (R) wins Virginia +240

Tue 11/6 1969 Tammy Baldwin (D) wins Wisconsin -165
10:00AM 1970 Tommy Thompson (R) wins Wisconsin +125

2012 State Gubernatorial Elections
Tue 11/6 1981 Maggie Hassan (D) wins New Hampshire -260
10:00AM 1982 Ovide Lamontagne (R) wins New Hampshire +180

After 2012 Elections – President & Congress Combinations

Democratic President + Democratic Senate + Democratic House
Tue 11/6 2001 Dem President + Dem Senate + Dem House +2700
10:00AM 2002 Any other result or split -5800

Democratic President + Republican Senate + Republican House
Tue 11/6 2003 Dem President + Rep Senate + Rep House +3000
10:00AM 2004 Any other result or split -7000

Democratic President + Democratic Senate + Republican House
Tue 11/6 2005 Dem President + Dem Senate + Rep House -290
10:00AM 2006 Any other result or split +210

Democratic President + Republican Senate + Democratic House
Tue 11/6 2007 Dem President + Rep Senate + Dem House +12500
10:00AM 2008 Any other result or split -62500

Republican President + Democratic Senate + Republican House
Tue 11/6 2009 Rep President + Dem Senate + Rep House +350
10:00AM 2010 Any other result or split -530

Republican President + Republican Senate + Republican House
Tue 11/6 2013 Rep President + Rep Senate + Rep House +800
10:00AM 2014 Any other result or split -1700

Republican President + Democratic Senate + Democratic House
Tue 11/6 2015 Rep President + Dem Senate + Dem House +17500
10:00AM 2016 Any other result or split -87500

Ballot Initiatives – Marijuana reform and legalisation
Tue 11/6 4001 Colorado Amendment 64 to be passed -900
10:00AM 4002 Colorado Amendment 64 won’t pass +500

Tue 11/6 4003 Oregon Measure 80 to be passed +550
10:00AM 4004 Oregon Measure 80 won’t pass -1050

Tue 11/6 4005 Washington Initiative I-502 to be passed -1200
10:00AM 4006 Washington Initiative I-502 won’t pass +600