Posts Tagged ‘BCS National Championship props’

BCS National Championship Game LSU vs. Alabama Prop Picks 1/9/12

January 9th, 2012 by Adam Markowitz (Bankroll Sports Columnist) | Posted in College Football   Comments Off on BCS National Championship Game LSU vs. Alabama Prop Picks 1/9/12
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There is just one game left on the college football TV schedule, and that game takes us to the Louisiana Superdome for the BCS National Championship. There has been a ton of pomp and circumstance surrounding this game over the course of the last month or so, and here at Bankroll Sports, we are taking one last look at the LSU Tigers vs. Alabama Crimson Tide. Check out our National Championship prop picks courtesy of Bovada Sportsbook.

AJ McCarron Over/Under 200.5 Passing Yards
McCarron threw for 199 yards when these two teams met the first time around, but we just aren’t all that sure that that is going to be the case again in this one. The Georgia Bulldogs were a great passing team this year, and QB Aaron Murray was frustrated the entire game by this LSU defense. The Bayou Bengals have two of the best corners in the nation, and getting the ball to anyone aside from RB Trent Richardson on screens is going to be dangerous to say the least. The Crimson Tide do have the receivers to be able to do some damage when push comes to shove, but we just don’t see this much in terms of yardage allowed by the LSU secondary. McCarron Under 200.5 Passing Yards (-110 at Bovada Sportsbook)

Trent Richardson Over/Under 28.5 Receiving Yards
Richardson did plenty of damage to these Tigers earlier this year as a receiver, accounting for 80 yards through the air. Granted, most of that came on one long play, but in the end, he had five catches and eight targets on McCarron’s 28 pass attempts. There is going to be a heck of a lot of checking down in this one, and we see Richardson getting plenty of looks. This is a man that caught 27 passes this year for 327 yards, so we know that he has the hands to be able to make the receptions to make this prop stand up. Richardson might not have the day on the ground for the Tide, but we do think that he is going to be used as a receiver quite a bit. He should get at least into the 40s in this game in receiving yards in our estimation. Richardson Over 28.5 Receiving Yards (-110 at Bovada Sportsbook)

Will Rueben Randle Score a Touchdown?
If this game turns out to be anything like the first meeting, there won’t be any touchdowns to speak of, so all of these props will turn out to be “No.” We do think that there will at least be a few TDs in this one, and that would make Randle a prime candidate to get the job done on a deep ball. However, for the last month, these Alabama corners have been hearing all about how the Tigers have the best corners in the nation. Yet it was the Crimson Tide that ranked No. 1 in literally every single major defensive yardage category this year, and you can bet that these corners have something to prove. Randle did catch 50 balls this year for 904 yards and eight trips to the end zone, and he is surely the deep threat in this game, but if you are asking us whether he is going to get behind the Alabama secondary in this game, we certainly don’t think so. This seems like an awfully short price on a man that only scored eight TDs all season long. Randle To Not Score a TD (-180 at Bovada Sportsbook)

Total Turnovers Over/Under 3.5
Though both of these defenses forced a ton of turnovers this year, the truth of the matter is that neither one turned the ball over all that much, including in the game against one another back in November. There were a grand total of four turnovers in the first meeting, but QB Jarrett Lee threw two of them, while WR Marquis Maze threw one as well. These teams simply don’t lose fumbles, and in the punt return game, DB Tyrann Mathieu has some of the best hands in the game, while P Brad Wing’s punts are basically never returned. That will certainly cut down the number of opportunities that either team has at turning the ball over. There could be a ton of punts in this one, just like there was the first time around, but we don’t see a slew of turnovers. Asking either team to force more than two turnovers against the other in this one is going to be a tall, tall task, and we just don’t see any way that it happens. It’s chalky, but it is certainly the right play to make. Under 3.5 Total Turnovers (-350 at Bovada Sportsbook)

Will Either Team Score Three Straight Times
Sure, if you are really a believer that these two teams are going to play another one of these wild 9-6 games that ends in overtime, you are better served betting the “No” on this prop. That being said, we think that suckers are going to take that +120 all day long, as the thought has to be whether there are going to be three scores, let alone three scores coming in a row by the same team. It only needs to happen once though, and in at least two out of every three games, it happens. Both of these teams are good enough offensively to make it happen, and in the event that this one starts to get out of hand (and don’t discount the fact that it might), it will be clear that someone will score three straight times, either when trying to post a comeback, or trying to pull away from the other once and for all. A Team Scores Three Straight Times (-160 at Bovada Sportsbook)

BCS Championship Picks: Oregon vs. Auburn Props 1/10/11

January 9th, 2011 by Adam Markowitz (Bankroll Sports Columnist) | Posted in College Football   Comments Off on BCS Championship Picks: Oregon vs. Auburn Props 1/10/11
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We have waited for over a month to sink our teeth into this one! Finally, the BCS National Championship Game is here, and NCAA football betting fans can’t wait to watch the Oregon Ducks take on the Auburn Tigers for all of the marbles. Just when you thought we had every angle of this game covered, think again! Today, we’re tackling some of the best props on the board for the biggest game of the year.

Will there be a score in the first 4 1/2 minutes?
Let’s be remotely reasonable here. Every single season, we look and see two teams with these great offenses playing for all of the marbles in the BCS Championship Game, and every single year, we think that we are going to see all of these points hit the board right away in the first quarter and that the scoring will just never look back. Sometimes, like when the USC Trojans played the Texas Longhorns, we end up with that great offensive shootout. Others, like when the Florida Gators beat the Oklahoma Sooners, we get a complete dud. Either way, it usually takes teams quite a while to get into the swing of thing. Sure, it wasn’t all that long ago that WR Ted Ginn Jr. returned the opening kickoff of the National Championship Game for a TD, but we know that the likelihood of that happening here is slim to none. These offenses are going to take awhile to get into the swing of things, and it certainly isn’t going to happen right away in the first 4 1/2 minutes of the game. Even in that Texas/USC epic battle, there was only one score in the entire first quarter. There’s no reason to think that this isn’t a winning proposition at least 60 percent of the time. There will be No Score in First 4 1/2 Minutes (-115 at Hollywood Sportsbook) in the BCS National Championship Game.

LaMichael James Longest Run Over/Under 30.5 Yards
When something happens eight times in 12 games and the sportsbooks are only asking you to make a 50/50 proposition call on it, you just have to jump at the opportunity. Sure, the Tigers held teams to right around 100 yards rushing this year, but this is an exception. You know that Oregon is going to get its yards in this one. It might be a frustrating night for the Heisman Trophy runner up, but James is certainly capable of ripping off at least one run of at least 31 yards in this one. He did that in each of his first five games of the year and three times down the stretch. James should be able to do this at least once. Don’t be shocked to see his longest rush be Over 30.5 Yards (-115 at Hollywood Sportsbook).

Will Kenjon Barner score a TD?
Let’s be real here with Barner for a second. Sure, he had 17 carries in each of his last two games against the Arizona Wildcats and the Oregon State Beavers, but his numbers are inflated thanks to the fact that he had five scores in the first game of the season when RB LaMichael James was suspended. Barner has only found pay dirt three times since then, and two of those scores came against Oregon State. The odds on this prop should probably be about -300 for ‘no’, but because of the fact that the ‘total’ is so high in this game, the oddsmakers are hoping that you fall into all of the traps and bet ‘yes’ on every single one of these props. Not everyone can score a TD in the title game, folks. Barner will be one of those that doesn’t get a chance to celebrate in the end zone. He will Not Have a TD (-170 at Hollywood Sportsbook) against the Tigers.

Will Mario Fannin Score a TD?
Don’t get suckered into the fact that Fannin scored five TDs this year. Two came against the Chattanooga Mocs, and one came against the South Carolina Gamecocks when the SEC Championship Game was already well out of reach. Do you really believe that this game is going to be a blowout? Unless there are some major injuries to either RB Michael Dyer and/or RB Onterio McCalebb to speak of, we’re not even so sure that Fannin gets onto the field, let alone scores a TD in more than one out of four games. He will Not Have a TD (-320 at Hollywood Sportsbook).

Philip Lutzenkirchen Over/Under 1 Reception
Maybe we’re getting suckered into this one just a tad, but we have seen more out of Lutzenkirchen of late than we did for the rest of the season. Maybe he is more likely to have no receptions than two receptions, but we have a feeling that the big guy, one of the feel good stories in this game, will at least get his hands on the pigskin once. Don’t be shocked if he’s a surprise TD scorer, as he is a great option near the end zone. However, the stellar tight end has been the target of at least a couple of passes in each of Auburn’s last three games. We’ll take our chance that he at least gets the one catch, and gets a second one somewhere along the way. Lutzenkirchen should have Over 1 Reception (+110 at Hollywood Sportsbook) against the Quack Attack.