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2017 Week 1 NFL Lines & Odds

July 17th, 2017 by Lou Palumbo (Head Columnist) | Posted in NFL Football   Comments Off on 2017 Week 1 NFL Lines & Odds

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Complete List of 2017 Week 1 NFL Lines are Listed at the Bottom

NFL Betting OddsWith the 2017 football season approaching, it’s about that time.  The time where sports bettors start looking past baseball; and start looking ahead to the NFL week 1 lines and odds.  Week 1 of the NFL season can always be a tricky week to handicap and analyze.  This is even more true in the NFL where the oddsmakers are less overwhelmed than they are in week 1 of the college football season.

A large majority of public bettors are placing bets; and completely ignoring the pre-season.  Most of the public is usually basing their week 1 bets on what happened the previous year as well as the big-name free agent signings in the off-season.  This puts the bookmakers at a huge advantage in week one.

Some helpful wisdom & advice would be for bettors to avoid overlooking major coaching changes.  Looking for teams that have new head coaches (as well as entire coaching staffs) is a great strategy to immediately look for sharp plays that the public may be overlooking.  Nothing can quickly turn a bad team into a contender (and also turn a mediocre team into an irrelevance one), like a new head coach.  So, before placing your week 1 nfl bets, make sure to make note of the teams with entirely new coaching staff.

As for 2017 week one dockett, there are some interesting games to watch.

As usual the week 1 Thursday night matchup is worth watching (unlike the preceding Thursday night games later in the season).  The NFL opener on Thursday night offers a great chess match between two great head coaches (Andy Reid and Bill Belichick).   The defending Superbowl Champion Patriots will host the Kansas City Chiefs (who made the playoffs in each of the last 3 seasons under Andy Reid).  The Patriots are listed as 7.5 point favorites.

On Sunday afternoon, the highly revamped (& playoff hopeful) Oakland Raiders head to Tennessee to take on the Titans as 1 point road favorites.

The early evening (4pm) week 1 slate is highlighted with a matchup of two playoff teams.  Arron Rodgers’ Packers are listed as 3 point home favorite vs Russell Wilson and the Seattle Seahawks.

Sunday Night Football features a quality NFC East showdown between the Superbowl hopeful Dallas Cowboys hosting Eli Manning and the Giants.  Dak Prescott’s Cowboys open at 4.5 point favorites vs. the visiting G-men.

Current 2017 NFL Week 1 Lines From My Bookie Sportsbook (as of 9/6/11):
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Week 1 Thursday Night Football Game:
Thursday, 9/7 @ 8:30 PM (EST)

451 Kc Chiefs +7½ O 48
452 Ne Patriots -7½ U 48

Week 1 Sunday NFL Early Games:
NFL Lines for Sunday, 9/10 @ 1pm (EST)

453 Ny Jets +6½ O 42½
454 Buf Bills -6½ U 42½

455 Atl Falcons -7 O 50½
456 Chi Bears +7 U 50½

457 Jac Jaguars +4 O 42
458 Hou Texans -4 U 42

459 Phi Eagles +2½ O 48
460 Was Redskins -2½ U 48

461 Ari Cardinals +2 O 48½
462 Det Lions -2 U 48½

463 Oak Raiders -1 O 51½
464 Ten Titans +1 U 51½

465 Tb Buccaneers +1 O 47
466 Mia Dolphins -1 U 47

467 Bal Ravens +2½ O 42½
468 Cin Bengals -2½ U 42½

469 Pit Steelers -9 O 47½
470 Cle Browns +9 U 47½

Week 1 Sunday Late NFL Games:
NFL Lines for Sunday, 9/10 @ 4:05 & 4:25pm (EST)

471 Ind Colts -3 O 47
472 La Rams +3 U 47

473 Sea Seahawks +3 O 49½
474 Gb Packers -3 U 49½

475 Car Panthers -5½ O 48
476 Sf 49ers +5½ U 48

Week 1 Sunday Night Football (on NBC):
Sunday, 9/10 at 8:30pm (EST)

477 Ny Giants +4½ O 49½

478 Dal Cowboys -4½ U 49½

Week 1 Monday Night Football Lines (on ESPN):

Monday, 9/11 at 7:10pm (EST)
479 No Saints +3½ O 48
480 Min Vikings -3½ U 48

Monday, 9/11 at 10:20pm (EST)
483 La Chargers +3½ O 44
482 Den Broncos -3½ U 44MyBookie

2017 Super Bowl Odds & Value Picks (as of 12/21/2016)

December 21st, 2016 by Lou Palumbo (Head Columnist) | Posted in NFL Football   Comments Off on 2017 Super Bowl Odds & Value Picks (as of 12/21/2016)
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 All Current 2017 Superbowl Odds for Super Bowl 51 Are Posted Below

Important Note: If you do not wish
2017-superbowl-odds to read our briefing as well as our value Superbowl picks, you can skip this and
go right to the list of Super Bowl odds & additional NFL futures odds by scrolling to the bottom of the post.  

Bookmarking Note: Make sure to Bookmark This Superbowl Odds Page using the social bookmarking links below.  The odds list below will be updated often and on a weekly basis during the season.

Just two short weeks away from the 2016-17 NFL playoffs and the teams that remain in playoff contention are shrinking by the week.  With the Patriots (2 to 1 Odds @ JustBet) and the Cowboys (5 to 1 Odds @ 5 Dimes) riding so far atop the odds right now, there’s few little value to be gotten in the current NFC and AFC favorites.  Some books also have the Cowboys & Seahawks with the same odds.  But, even at 5 to 1, we don’t see a whole lot of value in Seattle without them having home field advantage.  We do think the current 2017 Superbowl Odds offer some value in the middle of the bunch right now.

In the NFC, the Atlanta Falcons are currently being offered at very substantial price of 18 to 1 (@ 5 Dimes).  This is a team that is currently hitting on all cylinders on offense and their young defense is really starting to swarm around the ball.  If they can somehow get that first round bye, you can expect that 18-1 number to drop to under 8 to 1.   Another impressive metric for the Falcons, is the 5-2 record on the road.  Even without the bye, we still see 18-1 as a fantastic value.

As for an AFC value pick, this one is a little more tricky as New England appears to be the dominating team.   That being said, we’ll look at the #2 team in the AFC right now in the Oakland Raiders who are currently being offered at 15 to 1 (@ JustBet).  There is still an outside chance the Raiders can get home filed advantage.  This may just be the year that the Oakland Raiders get revenge for the infamous tuck rule.

Latest 2017 Superbowl Odds From @ 5 Dimes (As Of Week 16):
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New England Patriots 2 to 1
Dallas Cowboys 5 to 1
Seattle Seahawks 6 to 1
Pittsburgh Steelers 10 to 1
Oakland Raiders 14 to 1
Kansas City Chiefs 16 to 1
New York Giants 16 to 1
Green Bay Packers 16 to 1
Atlanta Falcons 18 to 1
Detroit Lions 55 to 1
Tennessee Titans 55 to 1
Baltimore Ravens 66 to 1
Tampa Bay Buccaneers 70 to 1
Miami Dolphins 80 to 1
Indianapolis Colts 100 to 1
Houston Texans 105 to 1
Washington Redskins 110 to 1
Denver Broncos 125 to 1
Minnesota Vikings 350 to 1
Buffalo Bills 500 to 1
New Orleans Saints 500 to 1
Carolina Panthers 850 to 1

Current Odds To Win Super Bowl 51 @ JustBet (As Of 8/31/16):
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New England Patriots 2 to 1
Dallas Cowboys 5 to 1
Seattle Seahawks 5 to 1
Pittsburgh Steelers 9 to 1
Kansas City Chiefs 12 to 1
Green Bay Packers 14 to 1
Atlanta Falcons 14 to 1
Oakland Raiders 15 to 1
New York Giants 16 to 1
Detroit Lions 50 to 1
Baltimore Ravens 55 to 1
Indianapolis Colts 57 to 1
Tennessee Titans 60 to 1
Tampa Bay Buccaneers 70 to 1
Miami Dolphins 75 to 1
Houston Texans 85 to 1
Denver Broncos 100 to 1
Washington Redskins 110 to 1
Minnesota Vikings 130 to 1
Buffalo Bills 235 to 1
New Orleans Saints 700 to 1
Carolina Panthers 450 to 1

Current Football Futures Odds From Bovada Sportsbook:
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2015 Week 1 NFL Lines & Odds

August 27th, 2015 by Rodney James (Bankroll Sports Contributor) | Posted in NFL Football   Comments Off on 2015 Week 1 NFL Lines & Odds

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The Full List of 2015 Week 1 NFL Lines are Listed at Bottom of Page

It’s time to start looking ahead at the National Football League. The first Sunday of the season is always the hardest, due to the unknown of all the teams. It should be a fun weekend of football. Let’s take a look at some of the Vegas odds for Week 1 of the NFL season:

While there are 13 games to be played on Sunday, do not forget about the first game of the season. This game features two talented teams. The Pittsburgh Pirates are at the New England Patriots. New England is without Tom Brady, while the Steelers will be without Le’Veon Bell. The Patriots are -3 over the Steelers. In the first wave of games on Sunday, the biggest rivalry game features two NFC North teams, as the Green Bay Packers go to the Chicago Bears. Green Bay comes into the game at -6.5 over the Bears. Out of the NFC West, the back to back NFC champion Seattle Seahawks will take their talents on the road and take on the St. Louis Rams. The Seahawks are -3.5 over the Rams. Other, non divisional games feature the Indianapolis Colts going on the road and taking on the Buffalo Bills. The Colts are -2 on the road in this one. The Miami Dolphins also start their season on the road. The Dolphins head to the nation’s capitol and take on the Washington Redskins. Miami is -3 for this game. Carolina and Jacksonville will take each other on in the opening weekend as well. The Jaguars will be improved, but still are home underdogs. The Carolina Panthers are -4 over the Jaguars.  Cleveland and the New York Jets will battle it out. The Jets will be looking for a quarterback as Geno Smith is out 6-8 weeks. The Jets are -3 over the Browns. Finally, the Houston Texans and Kansas City Chiefs project to be one of the tightest games. The Texans, despite losing Arian Foster for several weeks still are -1 over Kansas City.

We move to the afternoon wave of games. During this session of football, there are just five games to be played. The first involves the Detroit Lions at the San Diego Chargers. The Chargers come into the game at -2.5 over Detroit. The New Orleans Saints go to Arizona, and are a field goal underdog. The Denver Broncos start their season at home. They will host the Baltimore Ravens. Peyton Manning and the Broncos are -4.5 over the Ravens. Oakland stays at home and host Cincinnati. The Raiders, despite being at home are a 3.5 point underdog. The final game during the afternoon session features the Tampa Bay Buccaneers and Tennessee Titans. The Buccaneers, despite winning just 2 games a season ago are a field goal favorite over the Titans.

In the Sunday Night Football game, and two Monday Night Football games, the New York Giants play at the Dallas Cowboys. Then Monday, the Philadelphia Eagles are at the Atlanta Falcons and the Minnesota Vikings play at the San Francisco 49ers. The Cowboys, who many are projecting to win the NFC this season are -6 over the Giants. The Falcons are +1 at home against Philadelphia, with a total of a week 1 high of 53. Finally, in the last game of Week 1, the San Francisco 49ers and Minnesota Vikings are listed at pick’em.

Latest 2011 NFL Football Week 1 Lines @ JustBet Sportsbook (as of 9/6/11):
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NFL Week 1 Odds for Thursday, September 8th:

463 PITTSBURGH -6.5 -110  50-110
464 NEW ENGLAND+6.5 -110  50-110

Week 1 NFL Spreads for Sunday, September 11th (1:00 ET Kickoffs):

463 GREEN BAY -6.5 -110  50-110
464 CHICAGO +6.5 -110  50-110

465 KANSAS CITY +1.5 -105  41-110
466 HOUSTON -1.5 -115  41-110

467 CLEVELAND +3-120  40.5 -110
468 NY JETS -3EV  40.5 -110

469 INDIANAPOLIS -2.5 -120  46.5 -110
470 BUFFALO +2.5 EV  46.5 -110

471 MIAMI -3-120  43.5 -110
472 WASHINGTON +3EV  43.5 -110

473 CAROLINA -3-115  41-110
474 JACKSONVILLE +3-105  41-110

475 SEATTLE -3.5 -110  43-110
476 ST. LOUIS +3.5 -110  43-110

NFL Week 1 Betting Lines for Sunday, September 11th (4:00 ET Kickoffs)

477 NEW ORLEANS +2.5 EV  47-110
478 ARIZONA -2.5 -120  47-110

479 DETROIT +2.5 -110  45.5 -110
480 SAN DIEGO -2.5 -110  45.5 -110

481 TENNESSEE +3EV  42-110
482 TAMPA BAY -3-120  42-110

483 CINCINNATI -3-125  44-110
484 OAKLAND +3+105  44-110

485 BALTIMORE +4-110  51-110
486 DENVER -4-110  51-110

Sunday Night Football Week 1 Game Line Sunday, September 11th
487 New York Giants +5.5
488 Dallas Cowboys -5.5
Over/Under 51

Week 1 Monday Night Football Lines for Monday, September 12th
7:10 PM
489 PHILADELPHIA -1-110  53.5 -110
490 ATLANTA +1-110  53.5 -110

10:20 PM
491 MINNESOTA -1-115  41.5 -110
492 SAN FRANCISCO +1-105  41.5 -110

 

Superbowl XLIX MVP Odds & Tips For Betting the Super Bowl MVP

January 27th, 2015 by Lou Palumbo (Head Columnist) | Posted in NFL Football   Comments Off on Superbowl XLIX MVP Odds & Tips For Betting the Super Bowl MVP
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Full List of Odds To Win The MVP For Superbowl 49 Can Be Found Below

Betting on the Superbowl MVP is one of the most enjoyable betting propositions for the big game.  It’s one of those rare types of future wagers where you are almost betting on the Superbowl and playing fantasy football at the same time.  However, betting the Superbowl MVP odds can be one of those very tricky type of proposition / future wagers.  Why?  We’ll because it’s one of those hard to predict wagers where you need to find some balance as you look for value.  It’s also one of those types of wagers where the average public bettor often gets suckered into getting a very low value bet (on either a ridiculous Superbowl MVP longshot or a favorite that pays less than it should…..

When Looking at Superbowl MVP Longshots:
There are often many huge long shots that look tempting due to their large payout and the player’s notoriety, but at the same time, the player might never even touch the football during, even a regular season game….much less, the Super Bowl.  If betting a player down the list, make sure to factor in the player’s health, the likelihood that he will see the end zone, and/or make multiple game changing plays.  Make sure to factor the competition and how the player has performed in big playoff games in the past.  Also, if the player is in a non-skill position it’s likely that he will not have any chance to actually win the Superbowl MVP (regardless of how many great plays he makes to help his team).  FFor the most, part, anyone below 150 to 1 on the list of Super Bowl MVP odds to win the Su

An example of a zero value long shot would be a full back (who is very popular) having a very sizable payout, and being very low on the MVP odds list, despite the fact that he scores very little and rarely gets the football.  Another example of a zero value long shot would be a popular Offensive Tackle being on the list.

Longshot Picks From the MVP Odds
Doug Baldwin (Seattle):
Superbowl MVP Odds: 50 to 1 Diamond Sportsbook
Jonas Grey (Patriots):
Odds To Win the Superbowl MVP: 200 to 1 Diamond Sportsbook

Who usually get’s the MVP? Yes, the quarterback, the running back, a wide receiver. Well if you remember last in last year’s Super Bowl, linebacker Malcolm Smith won the award in Seattle’s dominating win over Denver. In this interesting matchup on Sunday, both teams have outstanding defensive unit’s and either of these two players are more than capable of making a game changing play. Wagner, the heart of Seattle’s ferocious front 7, and Jamie Collins, the versatile linebacker who has really come into his own this season. Yes, this is a crapshoot, but here you find two outstanding players presenting tremendous value.

When Looking at Superbowl MVP Favorites:
The top of the Superbowl MVP odds are usually the quarterbacks, the running backs, and the top pass catcher on each team.  The quarterback is the showcase position.  The quarterback gets the spotlight and is usually the most talked about player on the field.  This applies even on teams where the quarterback isn’t the most skilled player, or where the quarterback is less responsible for the team even getting to the super bowl.  However, there are times where a quarterback’s over-hype and popularity overshadows another offensive player that is; (a) more likely to make the difference between winning and losing, and is also more likely to reach the end zone on multiple occasions in the Superbowl.  Sometimes popularity, likeability, and overwhelming hype provides good value in another player’s odds to win the Superbowl MVP award.

An example of this would be Rusell Wilson of the Seattle Seahawks offering a smaller payout than Marshawn Lynch, while Lynch’s success on the field usually determines weather Seattle wins or loses.

Favorites (To Win The MVP) Offering Value
LeGarrette Blunt (Patriots):
Odds To Win The MVP: 20 to 1 (5Dimes)
Marshawn Lynch (Seahawks):
Odds To Win The MVP: 6 to 1 (5Dimes)
Consider the Superbowl MVP Judges:
One of the biggest things to remember before you decide to make a Superbowl MVP future bet, is that this is not an award that is given-to by, or voted-on-by the other players on the field.  That’s right….the other players (on the winning and/or losing team) don’t get any say who they think should get the Superbowl’s Most Valuable Player award after the game.  Furthermore, when looking at the odds to win the MVP list, you also have to consider that this isn’t an award that fans decide on.  Nope….the NFL’s paying customers have more say in who wins American Idol than they do when it comes to which player gets the Super Bowl MVP.  So, who decides who wins the Superbowl’s Most Valuable player award….?

You guessed it.  It’s those pompous and arrogant blowhards in the sports media (who are so smart, that they’re getting washed out by bloggers on the web).  Sports writers from the major newspapers and sports networks across the United States decide who was the most valuable player to his team on the field that night.  Even if a writer never played a sport in his life, spent the entire game watching the gametracker, and/or didn’t watch a single play from the game…..that writer’s vote counts the same as the next.

Why is this important?  Well, human beings have emotions, and it effect their judgement (especially the annoying sports writers that make up the AP).  Therefore, if the media likes the player, he’s more likely to win a toss-up between two guys.  If you are down to two players, and both have similar odds to win the Superbowl MVP award. it may be useful do a Google News search for the names of players on both teams and see how many positive and negative headlines (from the major publications only) are on that player.  This will give you an idea of whether the media likes this player or not.  Often players who ignore the media, have proven them wrong, or don’t offer substantial interview sessions get some unfavorable spin from the mainstream sports media.

Look For Balance When Betting This Future:
As with most future bets, betting on the odds to win the Superbowl MVP is no different.  Don’t take the favorite for a lot less of a payout than you should be getting for that player.  But, at the same time, don’t waste you money on a 150-1 longshot that won’t even touch the ball.  Look for one or two value bets that are listed in the top 15, but also outside the top 5 on the list of Super Bowl MVP odds at your sportsbook.
Superbowl 49 MVP Value Plays:
Edelman is definitely a wildcard in this game, his toughness and his ability to get open on short routes is excellent. Not only that, chances are he will be matched up with Richard Sherman. Sherman is injured, and he will not be 100% in the game. Also, you have to take a look at Edelman in the passing game, yes, the passing game. Don’t be surprised if you see Edelman wing a touchdown pass in the game, as the Patriots will pull out all the stops. Edelman is also a factor in the return game, as he is extremely quick and is more than capable of taking it to the house. at 28 to 1, Edelman is showing some solid value.  Below Are Some Overall value plays that I see (excluding both team’s quarterback);
Superbowl MVP Overall Value Plays
Julian Edelman (Patriots)
Superbowl MVP Odds: 28 to 1 5Dimes
Rob Gronkowski (Patriots)
Superbowl MVP Odds: 12 to 1 5Dimes

Complete List of 2015 Superbowl MVP Odds @
5Dimes (as of 1/26/15):
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Tom Brady (Patriots) +120 (or 1.2 to 1)
Russell Wilson (Seahawks) +225 (or 2.25 to 1)
Marshawn Lynch (Seahawks) +535 (or 5.35 to 1)
Rob Gronkowski (Patriots) +1200 (or 12 to 1)
LeGarrette Blount (Patriots) +2300 (or 23 to 1)
Richard Sherman (Seahawks) +2500 (or 25 to 1)
Julian Edelman (Patriots) +2800 (or 28 to 1)
Nate Solder (Patriots) +2800 (or 28 to 1)
Russell Okung (Seahawks) +2800 (or 28 to 1)
Kam Chancellor (Seahawks) +3000 (or 30 to 1)
Matthew Slater (Patriots) +4700 (or 47 to 1)
Doug Baldwin (Seahawks) +5000 (or 50 to 1)
Earl Thomas (Seahawks) +5000 (or 50 to 1)
Sealver Siliga (Patriots) +6100 (or 61 to 1)
Brandon LaFell (Patriots) +6600 (or 66 to 1)
Darrelle Revis (Patriots) +6600 (or 66 to 1)
Bobby Wagner (Seahawks) +8000 (or 80 to 1)
Jermaine Kearse (Seahawks) +8000 (or 80 to 1)
Shane Vereen (Patriots) +10000 (or 100 to 1)
Byron Maxwell (Seahawks) +15000 (or 150 to 1)
Danny Amendola (Patriots) +15000 (or 150 to 1)
Jamie Collins (Patriots) +15000 (or 150 to 1)
Luke Willson (Seahawks) +15000 (or 150 to 1)
Michael Bennett (Seahawks) +15000 (or 150 to 1)
Patrick Chung (Patriots) +15000 (or 150 to 1)
Rob Ninkovich (Patriots) +15000 (or 150 to 1)
Akeem Ayers (Patriots) +20000 (or 200 to 1)
Bruce Irvin (Seahawks) +20000 (or 200 to 1)
Chandler Jones (Patriots) +20000 (or 200 to 1)
Cliff Avril (Seahawks) +20000 (or 200 to 1)
Dont’a Hightower (Patriots) +20000 (or 200 to 1)
Jonas Gray (Patriots) +20000 (or 200 to 1)
K. J. Wright (Seahawks) +20000 (or 200 to 1)
Malcolm Smith (Seahawks) +20000 (or 200 to 1)
Brandon Bolden (Patriots) +25000 (or 250 to 1)
Brandon Browner (Patriots) +25000 (or 250 to 1)
Brandon Mebane (Seahawks) +25000 (or 250 to 1)
Chris Jones (Patriots) +25000 (or 250 to 1)
Devin McCourty (Patriots) +25000 (or 250 to 1)
Jeremy Lane (Seahawks) +25000 (or 250 to 1)
Jeron Johnson (Seahawks) +25000 (or 250 to 1)
Kyle Arrington (Patriots) +25000 (or 250 to 1)
O’Brien Schofield (Seahawks) +25000 (or 250 to 1)
Ricardo Lockette (Seahawks) +25000 (or 250 to 1)
Stephen Gostkowski (Patriots) +25000 (or 250 to 1)
Steven Hauschka (Seahawks) +25000 (or 250 to 1)
Tharold Simon (Seahawks) +25000 (or 250 to 1)
Tim Wright (Patriots) +25000 (or 250 to 1)
Tony McDaniel (Seahawks) +25000 (or 250 to 1)
Vince Wilfork (Patriots) +25000 (or 250 to 1)
Christine Michael (Seahawks) +30000 (or 300 to 1)
Cooper Helfet (Seahawks) +30000 (or 300 to 1)
Garry Gilliam (Seahawks) +30000 (or 300 to 1)
Jon Ryan (Seahawks) +30000 (or 300 to 1)
Michael Hoomanawanui (Patriots) +30000 (or 300 to 1)
Robert Turbin (Seahawks) +30000 (or 300 to 1)
Brian Tyms (Patriots) +50000 (or 500 to 1)
Bryan Walters (Seahawks) +50000 (or 500 to 1)
James Develin (Patriots) +50000 (or 500 to 1)
James White (Patriots) +50000 (or 500 to 1)
Josh Boyce (Patriots) +50000 (or 500 to 1)
Kevin Norwood (Seahawks) +50000 (or 500 to 1)
Tony Moeaki (Seahawks) +50000 (or 500 to 1)
Will Tukuafu (Seahawks) +50000 (or 500 to 1)

Super Bowl XLIX Player and Team Prop Picks

January 26th, 2015 by Chad A. Dawkins | Posted in NFL Football   Comments Off on Super Bowl XLIX Player and Team Prop Picks

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Free NFL Team and Player Prop Picks For Super Bowl XLIX

The center of the sports world will be in Glendale, Arizona on Sunday, February 1st for Super Bowl XLIX featuring the AFC Champion New England Patriots and NFC Champion Seattle Seahawks. This is easily the most wagered game of the year, and here at Bankroll Sports we’ll take a look some prop bets that present some value in the big game.

Superbowl Props @ Bovada Sportsbook (as of 01/26/15):
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Super Bowl XLIX, Sunday, February 1, 2015
University of Phoenix Stadium, Glendale, AZ
New England Patriots vs Seattle Seahawks
Current line: New England -2 Total: 47.5

Tom Brady Total TD passes: Over 2.5 (+160)
Great value here. What have you have heard all through the media since the AFC Championship? DeflateGate. The Patriots are cheaters, Tom Brady is a cheater. Let’s rewind back to 2007, when the whole spygate thing cam out after their week 1 win against the Jets. After all the hoopla and criticism that week, the Patriots came out and destroyed San Diego. I expect Tom Brady to be more than motivated to put on a spectacular performance. There’s another guy that could help him out and tell him the weaknesses of Seattle’s secondary, and that would be Patriot cornerback Brandon Browner, a former Seahawk. Let’s not forget that Tom Brady goes against Darrelle Revis in practice every week. Tom Brady will definitely bring his ‘A’ game.

Will LeGarrette Blount (NE) score a TD in the first half? Yes (+180)
The Patriots will without a doubt want to establish a solid run game, and they can do it against a Seattle front 7 that has shown they can be run on. Blount is the go-to guy for the Patriots, and at this price, it presents a lot of value.

Will Rob Gronkowski (NE) score a TD in the game? No (+145)
Will Gronk make a difference in the game? Absolutely, he will have the total attention of the Seahawks secondary. Seattle has an excellent red zone defense, and they have a safety in Kam Chancellor, who will match up extremely well with him. Gronk will make a difference, but I’m not so sure how effective he’ll be in the red zone.

Total Interceptions – Russell Wilson (SEA) Over ½ (-110) 2 (+500)
Yes, the over ½ is not a positive EV wager, but this will without a doubt be the best secondary and possibly the best defense Wilson has faced. This is a guy that threw four interceptions in the NFC championship, and his confidence level can’t be all that hi. I think this is a solid wager, considering the circumstances. Getting +500 for Wilson to throw 2 interceptions is great value.

Total Rushing Yards – Marshawn Lynch (SEA) Under 89.5 (-105)
You have to look at it this way, with 2 weeks to prepare, what will Bill Belichick’s defensive game plan be? Well, looking at history, they will look to take away what Seattle does best. Lynch is by far the most important part of their offense, and I think the Patriots will look to limit Lynch and put the game in Russell Wilson’s hands.

Will there be a defensive or special teams TD in the game? Yes +155
Both defenses are capable of scoring in this game, and in my opinion, and among many of the so-called ‘experts’ these are two of the most complete defensive units in the league with outstanding secondaries. I think we’ll see a defensive touchdown in this game, and I think there is some solid value here and I’m honestly surprised to see this kind of price here.

2014 AFC & NFC Championship Prop Odds, Picks

January 16th, 2015 by Chad A. Dawkins | Posted in General Handicapping, NFL Football   Comments Off on 2014 AFC & NFC Championship Prop Odds, Picks
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Free NFL Team Prop Picks For Championship Weekend

Championship weekend is here and while many are looking to figure out the sides and total, some of the better value is in player props. We’ll take a look at some prop bets that could present some value.

Free NFC Championship Picks
Green Bay at Seattle @ 3:05 pm EST
Game Line: Seattle -7.5 (-105) Total: 47

Total TD Passes – Aaron Rodgers (Green Bay)
Free NFC Championship Pick: Over 2.5 (+140)
Call me crazy, but I like Green Bay’s chances on Sunday. The question you have to ask yourself, how hurt is Rodgers? Let’s just forget about the first game of the season, this is a different Green Bay team and their offensive line is playing at an extremely high level. I think there is some value here, and Rodgers throwing more than 3 touchdowns with all the weapons he has is not out of the question.

Will James Starks (Green Bay) score a TD in the game?
Free NFC Championship Pick: Yes +575
A lot of value here as you have a backup running back that shows up in big games. I do think Starks can be a factor, especially as I think Green Bay will limit Eddie Lacy in the first half to save him for the second half. Starks is also a great receiving back, and is pretty versatile. This is some great value here.

Will Eddie Lacy (Green Bay) record 150 or more rushing yards?
Free NFC Championship Pick: Yes +2000
A long shot yes, but you might think Eddie Lacy is a little banged up, but he didn’t take a lot of hit last weekend. Does Seattle have a great defense? Without a doubt…but if there’s any running back that can match the physicality of the Seahawks’ defense, it’s Lacy. Tremendous value!

Russell Wilson (Seattle) – Total TD Passes
0: +300, 1: +175, 2: +220
Ok, there’s a variety of picks here, all positive EV wagers. I do believe Russell Wilson will throw a touchdown pass; it’s just a matter of how many. But each wager is showing some value.

Will Russell Wilson (Seattle) score a rushing TD in the Game?
Free NFC Championship Prop Pick: Yes – +250
Again, another wager with a ton of value. Wilson has 6 rushing touchdowns this season, and there’s no question that he’ll be a threat to take one to the house on Sunday.


Free AFC Championship Prop Picks

Indianapolis at New England @ 6:40 pm EST
Game Line: New England -7 (-105) Total: 54

Andrew Luck (Indianapolis) – Total Rushing yards
Free AFC Championship Picks: Over 17.5 yards (-125)
Yeah there’s some juice here, but I like this play. Luck is very athletic, and can extend the play…New England has an outstanding secondary, and I think there will be more than a few times where Luck will get loose and run for some extra yards. I think this is a real solid wager.

Will Andrew Luck (Indianapolis) score a rushing touchdown in the game?
AFC Championship Prop Pick: Yes +300
Again, this goes back to my last prop, I think there’s some value here…and I think it’s worth a look as Luck can get to the end zone using his legs.

Will Reggie Wayne (Indianapolis) score a TD in the game?
AFC Championship Prop Pick: 
Yes +250
Is it me or does it seem that Reggie Wayne seem like the forgotten guy in Indianapolis? Wayne has a ton of big game experience, and with so much focus on T.Y. Hilton and newcomer Donte Moncrief, Wayne could definitely get open for a score here. Should Indy find themselves down early, I think the chances of Wayne finding the end zone are pretty good.

Will Brandon LaFell (New England) score a touchdown in the game?
AFC Championship Prop Pick: Yes +140
Well, seeing with what happened last weekend, Brandon LaFell certainly isn’t afraid to come up in big spots. LaFell caught the game winning touchdown, and has become one of Tom Brady’s favorite targets. Solid value here.

Total Tackles and assists Jamie Collins (New England)
AFC Championship Prop Pick: 
Over 8.5 -105
Collins is a force, and in last years playoff game against Indianapolis he was a factor. Collins has the speed and is great in coverage. I expect the young linebacker to be very active in Sunday’s game.

2014-15 NFL Divisional Round Playoff Odds and Line Breakdown

January 7th, 2015 by Chad A. Dawkins | Posted in NFL Football   Comments Off on 2014-15 NFL Divisional Round Playoff Odds and Line Breakdown

The 2014-2015 NFL Divisional round is upon us. There are eight teams left, and here’s a run down of the games for this weekend, odds courtesy of JustBet. All times Eastern.

Saturday, January 10th

Baltimore at New England (-7, 47.5) 4:35 PM NBC

The New England Patriots will host the Baltimore Ravens on Saturday evening from Gillette Stadium in Foxboro. This will be the fourth meeting between these two teams in the past six years. Baltimore has often been a thorn in the side of Patriot quarterback Tom Brady and head coach Bill Belichick, winning 2 out of the last 3 and all of those being in Foxboro. The Patriots earned the AFC number one seed with a 13–3 record. The Ravens defeated there AFC North rival Pittsburgh last weekend 30-17.

Carolina at Seattle (-10.5, 39.5) 8:15 PM FOX

The Carolina Panthers travel to the Pacific Northwest to take on the defending Super Bowl champion Seattle Seahawks. These two teams have met three times since 2012 with Seattle winning all three match ups by an average of 4.2 points per game. Seattle’s defense has definitely has definitely has definitely come on strong towards the end of the season. Carolina’s defense has also done the same, allowing less then 300 yards of total offense and only one of their previous six games. The Panthers advanced to Saturdays divisional playoff defeating Arizona 27–16.

Sunday, January 11th

Dallas at Green Bay (-6, 53) 1:00 PM FOX

The Dallas Cowboys take on the Green Bay Packers from Lambeau Field in Green Bay Wisconsin. Dallas definitely had their hands full last weekend coming back from a 14-0 deficit in the first quarter to defeat Detroit 24–20. The game definitely had its fair share of controversial calls, but Dallas’ performance in the second half can’t be ignored, as they outscored the Lions 17–3 in the second half. The cowboys will definitely need their top defensive performance of the season, as Green Bay lead the league in scoring the season, averaging 30.3 points per game. The Packers run defense will definitely be tested, facing what is arguably the leagues best offense of line and top running back DeMarco Murray.

Indianapolis at Denver (-7, 54) 4:15 PM CBS

The last game of the divisional round will feature Peyton Manning and the Denver Broncos facing Manning’s former team, the Indianapolis Colts led by none other than Andrew Luck. These two teams met back in week one, with Denver winning 31–24. The Broncos held on for the win despite a late rally in the fourth quarter by the Colts. Indianapolis advanced two Sundays divisional round match up by defeating Cincinnati 26–10. Andrew Luck completed 31 of his 44 pass attempts for 376 yards and 1 touchdown in the victory.