Alabama vs. Texas A&M Predictions & CFB Prop Picks 9/14/13

Last Updated: September 14th, 2013 by Jack Wilshire (Bankroll Sports Contributor)
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There is a heck of a lot that has been made out of the game on the Week 3 college football schedule between the Alabama Crimson Tide and the Texas A&M Aggies. Today, we’re going to be breaking down some of the college football props for what should be one of the very best games of the season here in the SEC.

All Alabama vs. Texas A&M Prop Bets Are Courtesy of Bovada Sportsbook

AJ McCarron Passing Yards Over/Under 235.5 – Last season, McCarron threw the rock for 309 yards in the game against A&M, though without a 54-yard touchdown pass to WR Amari Cooper, it’s anyone’s guess as to what would have happened. A&M’s defense has been shoddy thus far this season, and though the passing yards really aren’t there, teams are averaging 6.79 yards per pass attempt. Heck, Sam Houston State averaged nearly 10 yards per attempt just last week. McCarron didn’t look good in his first game of the season, going just 10-of-23 for 110 yards with a TD and a pick, but he is probably going to have to do a lot more offensively in this game to succeed. Remember that last season, the junior threw for an average of just 209.5 pass yards per game, but there were a few examples when he really had to, that he threw for over 250 yards, including when he went off for 264 yards in the National Championship Game against Notre Dame. It’s going to be an interesting one, but we think behind a sometimes shaky looking offensive line, McCarron is going to get to this number. AJ McCarron Over 235.5 Passing Yards (-115)

Bovada BonusAJ McCarron Over/Under 2.5 Touchdowns + Interceptions: Though we do tend to think that there are going to be some yards thrown for in this game, we aren’t so sure what the oddsmakers are thinking by planning on McCarron scoring a combination of at least three TDs and INTs in this game. The senior was only picked off three times all of last season, and two of those came against the Aggies. Think that he is going to be making those mistakes again? We certainly think not. McCarron did make it past this 2.5 TDs + INTs six times last season in 14 games, but we just don’t know if this is going to be one of those examples where that happens. The oddsmakers are blowing this up. RB TJ Yeldon might get to three scores, but we aren’t so sure that McCarron will. AJ McCarron Under 2.5 Touchdowns + Interceptions (-110)

TJ Yeldon Over/Under 104.5 Rushing Yards: Again, we have some major questions that we have to ask about the Texas A&M defense. The team allowed Sam Houston State to rush for 240 yards on the ground last week, and it gave up 306 yards to Rice. And the oddsmakers think that the Tide are going to end up with less than 200 yards on the ground? Asking Yeldon to carry half the load isn’t all that unfair by any stretch of the imagination, and we think that he is going to get the job done with flying colors. In fact, with RB Eddie Lacy out of the way, we wouldn’t be all that shocked if Yeldon managed to double this rushing total in this game if the Aggies are going to struggle this badly up front along the defensive line. Alabama’s offensive line isn’t nearly as good as it was last season, but it isn’t going to have to be against a much weaker Texas A&M defensive line to boot. TJ Yeldon Over 104.5 Rushing Yards (-115)

Johnny Manziel Over/Under 93.5 Rushing Yards: Wow that’s a darn big number! Manziel was great last season, accounting for 92 yards on the ground, but we can’t imagine that he is going to flirt with triple digits again this year. Remember that sacks count against his rushing total, and now the Tide know just how fast he is to the outside when he gets on the loose. Manziel simply has to play a more contained version of his game from last season, and accounting for all those rushing yards is going to be really tough against a team that isn’t going to allow 93.5 rushing yards per game on average this season, let alone to just one quarterback. Johnny Manziel Under 93.5 Rushing Yards (-115)

Johnny Manziel Rushing + Passing Yards in 2013 (-27.5) vs. Johnny Manziel Rushing + Passing Yards in 2012 (+27.5): Essentially, that puts the over/under at the total number of yards that Johnny Football is going to come up with in this game at 372.5 all by himself without any progress by any of his other teammates. Wow. Alabama’s defense is going to possibly give up half of that per game this year. This unit held down an experienced QB Logan Thomas to 5-of-26 passing for 59 yards two weeks ago, and only two passes went for more than six yards. Now, we know that Manziel will do better than that, but we don’t see him just running up and down the field the whole game by any stretch of the imagination. This is a really tough one to try to get to, and Manziel isn’t going to do it against the Crimson Tide. Johnny Manziel 2012 Rushing + Passing Yards in 2012 (+27.5) vs. Rushing + Passing Yards in 2013 (-115)

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Posted in College Football - Last Updated on Saturday, September 14th, 2013 @ 12:02 am (EST)
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