Archive for January, 2015

Superbowl XLIX MVP Odds & Tips For Betting the Super Bowl MVP

January 27th, 2015 by Lou Palumbo (Head Columnist) | Posted in NFL Football   Comments Off on Superbowl XLIX MVP Odds & Tips For Betting the Super Bowl MVP
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Full List of Odds To Win The MVP For Superbowl 49 Can Be Found Below

Betting on the Superbowl MVP is one of the most enjoyable betting propositions for the big game.  It’s one of those rare types of future wagers where you are almost betting on the Superbowl and playing fantasy football at the same time.  However, betting the Superbowl MVP odds can be one of those very tricky type of proposition / future wagers.  Why?  We’ll because it’s one of those hard to predict wagers where you need to find some balance as you look for value.  It’s also one of those types of wagers where the average public bettor often gets suckered into getting a very low value bet (on either a ridiculous Superbowl MVP longshot or a favorite that pays less than it should…..

When Looking at Superbowl MVP Longshots:
There are often many huge long shots that look tempting due to their large payout and the player’s notoriety, but at the same time, the player might never even touch the football during, even a regular season game….much less, the Super Bowl.  If betting a player down the list, make sure to factor in the player’s health, the likelihood that he will see the end zone, and/or make multiple game changing plays.  Make sure to factor the competition and how the player has performed in big playoff games in the past.  Also, if the player is in a non-skill position it’s likely that he will not have any chance to actually win the Superbowl MVP (regardless of how many great plays he makes to help his team).  FFor the most, part, anyone below 150 to 1 on the list of Super Bowl MVP odds to win the Su

An example of a zero value long shot would be a full back (who is very popular) having a very sizable payout, and being very low on the MVP odds list, despite the fact that he scores very little and rarely gets the football.  Another example of a zero value long shot would be a popular Offensive Tackle being on the list.

Longshot Picks From the MVP Odds
Doug Baldwin (Seattle):
Superbowl MVP Odds: 50 to 1 Diamond Sportsbook
Jonas Grey (Patriots):
Odds To Win the Superbowl MVP: 200 to 1 Diamond Sportsbook

Who usually get’s the MVP? Yes, the quarterback, the running back, a wide receiver. Well if you remember last in last year’s Super Bowl, linebacker Malcolm Smith won the award in Seattle’s dominating win over Denver. In this interesting matchup on Sunday, both teams have outstanding defensive unit’s and either of these two players are more than capable of making a game changing play. Wagner, the heart of Seattle’s ferocious front 7, and Jamie Collins, the versatile linebacker who has really come into his own this season. Yes, this is a crapshoot, but here you find two outstanding players presenting tremendous value.

When Looking at Superbowl MVP Favorites:
The top of the Superbowl MVP odds are usually the quarterbacks, the running backs, and the top pass catcher on each team.  The quarterback is the showcase position.  The quarterback gets the spotlight and is usually the most talked about player on the field.  This applies even on teams where the quarterback isn’t the most skilled player, or where the quarterback is less responsible for the team even getting to the super bowl.  However, there are times where a quarterback’s over-hype and popularity overshadows another offensive player that is; (a) more likely to make the difference between winning and losing, and is also more likely to reach the end zone on multiple occasions in the Superbowl.  Sometimes popularity, likeability, and overwhelming hype provides good value in another player’s odds to win the Superbowl MVP award.

An example of this would be Rusell Wilson of the Seattle Seahawks offering a smaller payout than Marshawn Lynch, while Lynch’s success on the field usually determines weather Seattle wins or loses.

Favorites (To Win The MVP) Offering Value
LeGarrette Blunt (Patriots):
Odds To Win The MVP: 20 to 1 (5Dimes)
Marshawn Lynch (Seahawks):
Odds To Win The MVP: 6 to 1 (5Dimes)
Consider the Superbowl MVP Judges:
One of the biggest things to remember before you decide to make a Superbowl MVP future bet, is that this is not an award that is given-to by, or voted-on-by the other players on the field.  That’s right….the other players (on the winning and/or losing team) don’t get any say who they think should get the Superbowl’s Most Valuable Player award after the game.  Furthermore, when looking at the odds to win the MVP list, you also have to consider that this isn’t an award that fans decide on.  Nope….the NFL’s paying customers have more say in who wins American Idol than they do when it comes to which player gets the Super Bowl MVP.  So, who decides who wins the Superbowl’s Most Valuable player award….?

You guessed it.  It’s those pompous and arrogant blowhards in the sports media (who are so smart, that they’re getting washed out by bloggers on the web).  Sports writers from the major newspapers and sports networks across the United States decide who was the most valuable player to his team on the field that night.  Even if a writer never played a sport in his life, spent the entire game watching the gametracker, and/or didn’t watch a single play from the game…..that writer’s vote counts the same as the next.

Why is this important?  Well, human beings have emotions, and it effect their judgement (especially the annoying sports writers that make up the AP).  Therefore, if the media likes the player, he’s more likely to win a toss-up between two guys.  If you are down to two players, and both have similar odds to win the Superbowl MVP award. it may be useful do a Google News search for the names of players on both teams and see how many positive and negative headlines (from the major publications only) are on that player.  This will give you an idea of whether the media likes this player or not.  Often players who ignore the media, have proven them wrong, or don’t offer substantial interview sessions get some unfavorable spin from the mainstream sports media.

Look For Balance When Betting This Future:
As with most future bets, betting on the odds to win the Superbowl MVP is no different.  Don’t take the favorite for a lot less of a payout than you should be getting for that player.  But, at the same time, don’t waste you money on a 150-1 longshot that won’t even touch the ball.  Look for one or two value bets that are listed in the top 15, but also outside the top 5 on the list of Super Bowl MVP odds at your sportsbook.
Superbowl 49 MVP Value Plays:
Edelman is definitely a wildcard in this game, his toughness and his ability to get open on short routes is excellent. Not only that, chances are he will be matched up with Richard Sherman. Sherman is injured, and he will not be 100% in the game. Also, you have to take a look at Edelman in the passing game, yes, the passing game. Don’t be surprised if you see Edelman wing a touchdown pass in the game, as the Patriots will pull out all the stops. Edelman is also a factor in the return game, as he is extremely quick and is more than capable of taking it to the house. at 28 to 1, Edelman is showing some solid value.  Below Are Some Overall value plays that I see (excluding both team’s quarterback);
Superbowl MVP Overall Value Plays
Julian Edelman (Patriots)
Superbowl MVP Odds: 28 to 1 5Dimes
Rob Gronkowski (Patriots)
Superbowl MVP Odds: 12 to 1 5Dimes

Complete List of 2015 Superbowl MVP Odds @
5Dimes (as of 1/26/15):
(Get a Free 50% Sports Betting Signup Bonus when Using This Link) 

Tom Brady (Patriots) +120 (or 1.2 to 1)
Russell Wilson (Seahawks) +225 (or 2.25 to 1)
Marshawn Lynch (Seahawks) +535 (or 5.35 to 1)
Rob Gronkowski (Patriots) +1200 (or 12 to 1)
LeGarrette Blount (Patriots) +2300 (or 23 to 1)
Richard Sherman (Seahawks) +2500 (or 25 to 1)
Julian Edelman (Patriots) +2800 (or 28 to 1)
Nate Solder (Patriots) +2800 (or 28 to 1)
Russell Okung (Seahawks) +2800 (or 28 to 1)
Kam Chancellor (Seahawks) +3000 (or 30 to 1)
Matthew Slater (Patriots) +4700 (or 47 to 1)
Doug Baldwin (Seahawks) +5000 (or 50 to 1)
Earl Thomas (Seahawks) +5000 (or 50 to 1)
Sealver Siliga (Patriots) +6100 (or 61 to 1)
Brandon LaFell (Patriots) +6600 (or 66 to 1)
Darrelle Revis (Patriots) +6600 (or 66 to 1)
Bobby Wagner (Seahawks) +8000 (or 80 to 1)
Jermaine Kearse (Seahawks) +8000 (or 80 to 1)
Shane Vereen (Patriots) +10000 (or 100 to 1)
Byron Maxwell (Seahawks) +15000 (or 150 to 1)
Danny Amendola (Patriots) +15000 (or 150 to 1)
Jamie Collins (Patriots) +15000 (or 150 to 1)
Luke Willson (Seahawks) +15000 (or 150 to 1)
Michael Bennett (Seahawks) +15000 (or 150 to 1)
Patrick Chung (Patriots) +15000 (or 150 to 1)
Rob Ninkovich (Patriots) +15000 (or 150 to 1)
Akeem Ayers (Patriots) +20000 (or 200 to 1)
Bruce Irvin (Seahawks) +20000 (or 200 to 1)
Chandler Jones (Patriots) +20000 (or 200 to 1)
Cliff Avril (Seahawks) +20000 (or 200 to 1)
Dont’a Hightower (Patriots) +20000 (or 200 to 1)
Jonas Gray (Patriots) +20000 (or 200 to 1)
K. J. Wright (Seahawks) +20000 (or 200 to 1)
Malcolm Smith (Seahawks) +20000 (or 200 to 1)
Brandon Bolden (Patriots) +25000 (or 250 to 1)
Brandon Browner (Patriots) +25000 (or 250 to 1)
Brandon Mebane (Seahawks) +25000 (or 250 to 1)
Chris Jones (Patriots) +25000 (or 250 to 1)
Devin McCourty (Patriots) +25000 (or 250 to 1)
Jeremy Lane (Seahawks) +25000 (or 250 to 1)
Jeron Johnson (Seahawks) +25000 (or 250 to 1)
Kyle Arrington (Patriots) +25000 (or 250 to 1)
O’Brien Schofield (Seahawks) +25000 (or 250 to 1)
Ricardo Lockette (Seahawks) +25000 (or 250 to 1)
Stephen Gostkowski (Patriots) +25000 (or 250 to 1)
Steven Hauschka (Seahawks) +25000 (or 250 to 1)
Tharold Simon (Seahawks) +25000 (or 250 to 1)
Tim Wright (Patriots) +25000 (or 250 to 1)
Tony McDaniel (Seahawks) +25000 (or 250 to 1)
Vince Wilfork (Patriots) +25000 (or 250 to 1)
Christine Michael (Seahawks) +30000 (or 300 to 1)
Cooper Helfet (Seahawks) +30000 (or 300 to 1)
Garry Gilliam (Seahawks) +30000 (or 300 to 1)
Jon Ryan (Seahawks) +30000 (or 300 to 1)
Michael Hoomanawanui (Patriots) +30000 (or 300 to 1)
Robert Turbin (Seahawks) +30000 (or 300 to 1)
Brian Tyms (Patriots) +50000 (or 500 to 1)
Bryan Walters (Seahawks) +50000 (or 500 to 1)
James Develin (Patriots) +50000 (or 500 to 1)
James White (Patriots) +50000 (or 500 to 1)
Josh Boyce (Patriots) +50000 (or 500 to 1)
Kevin Norwood (Seahawks) +50000 (or 500 to 1)
Tony Moeaki (Seahawks) +50000 (or 500 to 1)
Will Tukuafu (Seahawks) +50000 (or 500 to 1)

Super Bowl XLIX Player and Team Prop Picks

January 26th, 2015 by Chad A. Dawkins | Posted in NFL Football   Comments Off on Super Bowl XLIX Player and Team Prop Picks

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Free NFL Team and Player Prop Picks For Super Bowl XLIX

The center of the sports world will be in Glendale, Arizona on Sunday, February 1st for Super Bowl XLIX featuring the AFC Champion New England Patriots and NFC Champion Seattle Seahawks. This is easily the most wagered game of the year, and here at Bankroll Sports we’ll take a look some prop bets that present some value in the big game.

Superbowl Props @ Bovada Sportsbook (as of 01/26/15):
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Super Bowl XLIX, Sunday, February 1, 2015
University of Phoenix Stadium, Glendale, AZ
New England Patriots vs Seattle Seahawks
Current line: New England -2 Total: 47.5

Tom Brady Total TD passes: Over 2.5 (+160)
Great value here. What have you have heard all through the media since the AFC Championship? DeflateGate. The Patriots are cheaters, Tom Brady is a cheater. Let’s rewind back to 2007, when the whole spygate thing cam out after their week 1 win against the Jets. After all the hoopla and criticism that week, the Patriots came out and destroyed San Diego. I expect Tom Brady to be more than motivated to put on a spectacular performance. There’s another guy that could help him out and tell him the weaknesses of Seattle’s secondary, and that would be Patriot cornerback Brandon Browner, a former Seahawk. Let’s not forget that Tom Brady goes against Darrelle Revis in practice every week. Tom Brady will definitely bring his ‘A’ game.

Will LeGarrette Blount (NE) score a TD in the first half? Yes (+180)
The Patriots will without a doubt want to establish a solid run game, and they can do it against a Seattle front 7 that has shown they can be run on. Blount is the go-to guy for the Patriots, and at this price, it presents a lot of value.

Will Rob Gronkowski (NE) score a TD in the game? No (+145)
Will Gronk make a difference in the game? Absolutely, he will have the total attention of the Seahawks secondary. Seattle has an excellent red zone defense, and they have a safety in Kam Chancellor, who will match up extremely well with him. Gronk will make a difference, but I’m not so sure how effective he’ll be in the red zone.

Total Interceptions – Russell Wilson (SEA) Over ½ (-110) 2 (+500)
Yes, the over ½ is not a positive EV wager, but this will without a doubt be the best secondary and possibly the best defense Wilson has faced. This is a guy that threw four interceptions in the NFC championship, and his confidence level can’t be all that hi. I think this is a solid wager, considering the circumstances. Getting +500 for Wilson to throw 2 interceptions is great value.

Total Rushing Yards – Marshawn Lynch (SEA) Under 89.5 (-105)
You have to look at it this way, with 2 weeks to prepare, what will Bill Belichick’s defensive game plan be? Well, looking at history, they will look to take away what Seattle does best. Lynch is by far the most important part of their offense, and I think the Patriots will look to limit Lynch and put the game in Russell Wilson’s hands.

Will there be a defensive or special teams TD in the game? Yes +155
Both defenses are capable of scoring in this game, and in my opinion, and among many of the so-called ‘experts’ these are two of the most complete defensive units in the league with outstanding secondaries. I think we’ll see a defensive touchdown in this game, and I think there is some solid value here and I’m honestly surprised to see this kind of price here.

2014 AFC & NFC Championship Prop Odds, Picks

January 16th, 2015 by Chad A. Dawkins | Posted in General Handicapping, NFL Football   Comments Off on 2014 AFC & NFC Championship Prop Odds, Picks
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Free NFL Team Prop Picks For Championship Weekend

Championship weekend is here and while many are looking to figure out the sides and total, some of the better value is in player props. We’ll take a look at some prop bets that could present some value.

Free NFC Championship Picks
Green Bay at Seattle @ 3:05 pm EST
Game Line: Seattle -7.5 (-105) Total: 47

Total TD Passes – Aaron Rodgers (Green Bay)
Free NFC Championship Pick: Over 2.5 (+140)
Call me crazy, but I like Green Bay’s chances on Sunday. The question you have to ask yourself, how hurt is Rodgers? Let’s just forget about the first game of the season, this is a different Green Bay team and their offensive line is playing at an extremely high level. I think there is some value here, and Rodgers throwing more than 3 touchdowns with all the weapons he has is not out of the question.

Will James Starks (Green Bay) score a TD in the game?
Free NFC Championship Pick: Yes +575
A lot of value here as you have a backup running back that shows up in big games. I do think Starks can be a factor, especially as I think Green Bay will limit Eddie Lacy in the first half to save him for the second half. Starks is also a great receiving back, and is pretty versatile. This is some great value here.

Will Eddie Lacy (Green Bay) record 150 or more rushing yards?
Free NFC Championship Pick: Yes +2000
A long shot yes, but you might think Eddie Lacy is a little banged up, but he didn’t take a lot of hit last weekend. Does Seattle have a great defense? Without a doubt…but if there’s any running back that can match the physicality of the Seahawks’ defense, it’s Lacy. Tremendous value!

Russell Wilson (Seattle) – Total TD Passes
0: +300, 1: +175, 2: +220
Ok, there’s a variety of picks here, all positive EV wagers. I do believe Russell Wilson will throw a touchdown pass; it’s just a matter of how many. But each wager is showing some value.

Will Russell Wilson (Seattle) score a rushing TD in the Game?
Free NFC Championship Prop Pick: Yes – +250
Again, another wager with a ton of value. Wilson has 6 rushing touchdowns this season, and there’s no question that he’ll be a threat to take one to the house on Sunday.


Free AFC Championship Prop Picks

Indianapolis at New England @ 6:40 pm EST
Game Line: New England -7 (-105) Total: 54

Andrew Luck (Indianapolis) – Total Rushing yards
Free AFC Championship Picks: Over 17.5 yards (-125)
Yeah there’s some juice here, but I like this play. Luck is very athletic, and can extend the play…New England has an outstanding secondary, and I think there will be more than a few times where Luck will get loose and run for some extra yards. I think this is a real solid wager.

Will Andrew Luck (Indianapolis) score a rushing touchdown in the game?
AFC Championship Prop Pick: Yes +300
Again, this goes back to my last prop, I think there’s some value here…and I think it’s worth a look as Luck can get to the end zone using his legs.

Will Reggie Wayne (Indianapolis) score a TD in the game?
AFC Championship Prop Pick: 
Yes +250
Is it me or does it seem that Reggie Wayne seem like the forgotten guy in Indianapolis? Wayne has a ton of big game experience, and with so much focus on T.Y. Hilton and newcomer Donte Moncrief, Wayne could definitely get open for a score here. Should Indy find themselves down early, I think the chances of Wayne finding the end zone are pretty good.

Will Brandon LaFell (New England) score a touchdown in the game?
AFC Championship Prop Pick: Yes +140
Well, seeing with what happened last weekend, Brandon LaFell certainly isn’t afraid to come up in big spots. LaFell caught the game winning touchdown, and has become one of Tom Brady’s favorite targets. Solid value here.

Total Tackles and assists Jamie Collins (New England)
AFC Championship Prop Pick: 
Over 8.5 -105
Collins is a force, and in last years playoff game against Indianapolis he was a factor. Collins has the speed and is great in coverage. I expect the young linebacker to be very active in Sunday’s game.

2014-15 NFL Divisional Round Playoff Odds and Line Breakdown

January 7th, 2015 by Chad A. Dawkins | Posted in NFL Football   Comments Off on 2014-15 NFL Divisional Round Playoff Odds and Line Breakdown

The 2014-2015 NFL Divisional round is upon us. There are eight teams left, and here’s a run down of the games for this weekend, odds courtesy of JustBet. All times Eastern.

Saturday, January 10th

Baltimore at New England (-7, 47.5) 4:35 PM NBC

The New England Patriots will host the Baltimore Ravens on Saturday evening from Gillette Stadium in Foxboro. This will be the fourth meeting between these two teams in the past six years. Baltimore has often been a thorn in the side of Patriot quarterback Tom Brady and head coach Bill Belichick, winning 2 out of the last 3 and all of those being in Foxboro. The Patriots earned the AFC number one seed with a 13–3 record. The Ravens defeated there AFC North rival Pittsburgh last weekend 30-17.

Carolina at Seattle (-10.5, 39.5) 8:15 PM FOX

The Carolina Panthers travel to the Pacific Northwest to take on the defending Super Bowl champion Seattle Seahawks. These two teams have met three times since 2012 with Seattle winning all three match ups by an average of 4.2 points per game. Seattle’s defense has definitely has definitely has definitely come on strong towards the end of the season. Carolina’s defense has also done the same, allowing less then 300 yards of total offense and only one of their previous six games. The Panthers advanced to Saturdays divisional playoff defeating Arizona 27–16.

Sunday, January 11th

Dallas at Green Bay (-6, 53) 1:00 PM FOX

The Dallas Cowboys take on the Green Bay Packers from Lambeau Field in Green Bay Wisconsin. Dallas definitely had their hands full last weekend coming back from a 14-0 deficit in the first quarter to defeat Detroit 24–20. The game definitely had its fair share of controversial calls, but Dallas’ performance in the second half can’t be ignored, as they outscored the Lions 17–3 in the second half. The cowboys will definitely need their top defensive performance of the season, as Green Bay lead the league in scoring the season, averaging 30.3 points per game. The Packers run defense will definitely be tested, facing what is arguably the leagues best offense of line and top running back DeMarco Murray.

Indianapolis at Denver (-7, 54) 4:15 PM CBS

The last game of the divisional round will feature Peyton Manning and the Denver Broncos facing Manning’s former team, the Indianapolis Colts led by none other than Andrew Luck. These two teams met back in week one, with Denver winning 31–24. The Broncos held on for the win despite a late rally in the fourth quarter by the Colts. Indianapolis advanced two Sundays divisional round match up by defeating Cincinnati 26–10. Andrew Luck completed 31 of his 44 pass attempts for 376 yards and 1 touchdown in the victory.