Archive for November 4th, 2012

2012 NFL Week 9 Lines – Week Nine Lines Breakdown

November 4th, 2012 by Adam Markowitz (Bankroll Sports Columnist) | Posted in NFL Football   Comments Off on 2012 NFL Week 9 Lines – Week Nine Lines Breakdown
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Check Out The NFL Week 9 Lines Below This Article

Mario Williams BillsWe are closing in on the halfway point of the 2012 NFL season, and that means that every single game on the NFL point spreads gets more and more important. Check out all of the NFL Week 9 odds at the bottom of this article, and join us for a quick discussion on all of the great games on the NFL Week 9 schedule!

There are a ton of teams right now that are searching for season-defining victories or trying to avoid what might be season-defining defeats. On Thursday night, the Kansas City Chiefs are going to hope to start to turn the ship around against the slumping San Diego Chargers. Both of these head coaches are in a heck of a lot of trouble, and we wouldn’t be all that surprised to see the loser dismissed sooner than later. The Chargers are favored by 7.5-points, but that doesn’t mean that they are a sure thing to win. Remember that this is the same San Diego outfit that has dropped back to back games, one in which it was up 24-0 before losing by double digits, and the latter of which came to the lowly Cleveland Browns.

San Diego is favored by a huge margin, but it isn’t nearly favored by the most points in the league this week. The biggest favorites are the Green Bay Packers, who are -11 against the Arizona Cardinals. This is the second straight week in which Green Bay is the biggest favorite on the NFL betting odds, but this might be the even easier of the two games. The Cards look like a wreck right now, and they have dropped four games in a row. You wouldn’t know just that a few weeks ago, Arizona was the 4-0 team, and Green Bay was the club that we were all asking what was wrong with it.

The other massive favorites are the Houston Texans, who are laying 10.5 to the Buffalo Bills. It is a reunion for DE Mario Williams, who is now one of the two former No. 1 overall picks in the NFL Draft of the Texans that are playing for other teams. Williams is banged up but is expected to give it a go against his former mates, who badly need a win to get back in control of the AFC East race. The Texans might be the best team in the NFL though, so it wouldn’t be considered all that much of a surprise if this is a romp, especially knowing that the last time we saw them play, they absolutely destroyed the Baltimore Ravens.

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One of the themes that we are seeing this week is the idea of the road favorite. There haven’t been a lot of them on the NFL odds this year, and for good reason. Home underdogs are covering 56.1% of all games this year and have won 48.8% of those games outright as well. Four teams, two in the AFC and two in the NFC are favored by 3.5 this week on the road, while a fifth, the Miami Dolphins, are giving 2.5 to the Indianapolis Colts.

The Denver Broncos are giving 3.5 to the Cincinnati Bengals in a game that both teams badly need to win. The Bengals are sliding and could be out of the playoff picture with a loss in this one. However, the Broncos aren’t going to give up their newly acquired lead in the AFC West without a fight, even on the road against a team that was in the playoffs last year. You still have to go back two years to find a game that Cincinnati has won against a team that ultimately went to the playoffs that season.

The old Cleveland Browns are visiting the new Cleveland Browns as well this week. The Baltimore Ravens are off of their bye, and they are hoping to avoid becoming the newest team to lose to the Browns. Cleveland has played a heck of a lot better ball over the course of the last few weeks, and it would love nothing more than to spoil the weekend for the AFC North leaders and maybe think about getting back in the playoff chase itself as well. Baltimore is favored by 3.5-points, but that doesn’t mean that this game is so far removed from an upset.

The two teams in the NFC that are favored by 3.5 are the Detroit Lions and the Chicago Bears. They are both going on the road to face teams from the AFC South, the Jacksonville Jaguars and Tennessee Titans respectively. These are both games that should be won this weekend by the NFC North squads, knowing that the AFC South might be the worst division in football outside of the Texans.

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Maybe the biggest game on Sunday is the 4:25 ET kick between the Pittsburgh Steelers and the New York Giants. These two teams are built awfully similarly, and both have their questions to them. Pittsburgh is the team in much more dire need of a victory, and it might be possible, knowing that the Giants are coming off of that emotional win last week in Dallas. The G-Men are giving a field goal in a game that should be a real fight.

Other games on the Sunday docket that we have not yet discussed include the Washington Redskins -3.5 against the Carolina Panthers, the Seattle Seahawks -5 againt the Minnesota Vikings, and the Oakland Raiders -1.5 at home against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. Of note on the Minnesota/Seattle game is the fact that this is the only game of the week with a ‘total’ posted in the 30s, and that is only just barely there right now at 39.5.

Sunday Night Football this week pits the Atlanta Falcons at home against the Dallas Cowboys. We’re not really all that sure what the oddsmakers are seeing in Dallas to make this NFL line just four points, but to the Cowboys’ credit, they have stayed close in virtually every game that they have played this year. The Falcons are still undefeated though, and it would be difficult to see how the Cowboys would come on the road to the Georgia Dome to score the upset.

Monday Night Football should feature just a ton of points as well. The much beleaguered Philadelphia Eagles and the New Orleans Saints both know that they have to go on a run here, and in a hurry if they are going to challenge for playoff spots this year in the top-heavy NFC. This is a game that features the highest ‘total’ of the weekend at 52.5, and it also sees the host Saints giving a field goal in their quest to become just the second team in the history of the league to start 0-4 and to make the playoffs.

2012 NFL Week 9 Lines @ UCABet Sportsbook (as of 11/2/12):
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Week 9 Thursday Night Football Odds for Thursday, November 1st
301 Kansas City Chiefs +7.5
302 San Diego Chargers -7.5
Over/Under 41

Week 9 NFL Spreads for Sunday, November 4th (1:00 ET Kickoffs)
415 Denver Broncos -3.5
416 Cincinnati Bengals +3.5
Over/Under 47.5

417 Arizona Cardinals +10
418 Green Bay Packers -10
Over/Under 43.5

419 Miami Dolphins -2
420 Indianapolis Colts +2
Over/Under 43.5

421 Baltimore Ravens -3.5
422 Cleveland Browns +3.5
Over/Under 42.5

423 Buffalo Bills +10
424 Houston Texans -10
Over/Under 47.5

425 Carolina Panthers +3
426 Washington Redskins -3
Over/Under 47.5

427 Detroit Lions -4.5
428 Jacksonville Jaguars +4.5
Over/Under 44

429 Chicago Bears -3.5
430 Tennessee Titans +3.5
Over/Under 43.5

NFL Week 9 Betting Lines for Sunday, November 4th (4:00 ET Kickoffs)
431 Minnesota Vikings +4
432 Seattle Seahawks -4
Over/Under 38.5

433 Tampa Bay Buccaneers +1.5
434 Oakland Raiders -1.5
Over/Under 46.5

435 Pittsburgh Steelers +3.5
436 New York Giants -3.5
Over/Under 48

Sunday Night Football Week 9 Odds for Sunday, November 4th
437 Dallas Cowboys +3.5
438 Atlanta Falcons -3.5
Over/Under 47.5

Monday Night Football Week 9 Lines for Monday, October 5th
439 Philadelphia Eagles +3
440 New Orleans Saints -3
Over/Under 51.5

NFL Picks: Philadelphia Eagles vs. New Orleans Saints Predictions 11/5

November 4th, 2012 by Adam Markowitz (Bankroll Sports Columnist) | Posted in NFL Football   Comments Off on NFL Picks: Philadelphia Eagles vs. New Orleans Saints Predictions 11/5
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Full Eagles @ Saints NFL Prop Sheet Listed Below

New Orleans Saints CheerleadersThe New Orleans Saints and Philadelphia Eagles are set to continue the 2012 NFL season, and as a part of our analysis of the Week 9 betting lines, we are taking a look at some of the best NFL props on the board for this crucial primetime fight.

DeSean Jackson Over/Under 74.5 Receiving Yards: D-Jax hasn’t played the best ball of late, as he only has 14 receptions for 191 yards over the course of his last three games without a trip to the end zone. This is the New Orleans defense that he is going to be playing against though, and this unit has allowed at least 199 yards to opposing wide receivers in all but one game this year (and that came against the lowly Chiefs). There is no reason to think that both Jackson and WR Jeremy Maclin won’t have big time games this week, as these are the two receivers that QB Michael Vick looks at the most. We also like Jackson over 4.5 receptions, but this is the better play, knowing that the speed of Jackson can take one 75 yards on a single play. DeSean Jackson Over 74.5 Receiving Yards (-115)

Jeremy Maclin Over/Under 53.5 Receiving Yards: Same premise here with Maclin. The Saints’ secondary is awful. Maclin has gotten over 53.5 receiving yards just twice all season long, and just once since Week 1. Still, we think that he is in for a much better game this time around, and he should have another one of these borderline 100+ yard games. Jeremy Maclin Over 53.5 Receiving Yards (-115)

Marques Colston Over/Under 77.5 Receiving Yards: With RB Darren Sproles out of the fold, QB Drew Brees is going to have to work hard to get the ball down the field. The problem is that he is going against a very talented secondary for the Eagles, and this unit is going to be tough to crack when push comes to shove. Don’t be all that shocked if Colston will draw the attention of DB Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie quite a bit, and that might get Brees to think twice about try to get the ball to the man from Hofstra. There will be better days for Colston than this. Remember that he has only made it to 78 yards twice this entire season to date. Marques Colston Under 77.5 Receiving Yards (-115)

Will Jimmy Graham Score a Touchdown?: If there is a Jimmy Graham prop on Monday Night Football this week, we love the ‘over’. Graham is a man that has fallen upon hard times this year because of his bum ankle, but in the end, he is still a dream to have at this position this year. Remember that he had 99 receptions last year and averaged over 80 yards per game, but more important to us right now is the fact that he has scored a touchdown in four of the five games that he has played in from start to finish this year. And, the one game that he didn’t play at all, TE David Thomas had a touchdown. With Sproles out, Graham is probably going to be the security blanket that Brees needs to get the ball to when he is in trouble. We expect to see at least 8 receptions, at least 100 yards, and at least one, if not more trips to the end zone for the Miami Hurricane. Jimmy Graham To Score a Touchdown (-115)

Garrett Hartley Over/Under 6.5 Points: Hartley hasn’t kicked a field goal in two straight games, but what he does routinely do is kick a ton of extra points for New Orleans touchdowns. Granted, we know that it is going to take at least one field goal, and likely at least two to get Hartley to this number, but we have confidence, especially after he had at least two chances in three out of four games to start the year, that he is going to get that opportunity this time around as well against a Philly defense that has a heck of a lot to prove this week. Garrett Hartley Over 6.5 Points (-150)

Philadelphia Eagles vs. New Orleans Saints NFL Props @ BetOnline Sportsbook (as of 11/5/12):
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Score in the First 5.5 Minutes of the Game -125
No Score in the First 5.5 Minutes of the Game -105

Eagles Score First +105
Saints Score First -135

First Score a Touchdown -210
First Score Not a Touchdown +165

Longest Touchdown of the Game Over 50.5 Yards -115
Longest Touchdown of the Game Under 50.5 Yards -115

Michael Vick Completions Over 22.5 -125
Michael Vick Completions Under 22.5 -105

Michael Vick Longest Completion Over 37.5 Yards -115
Michael Vick Longest Completion Under 37.5 Yards -115

Michael Vick Passing Yards Over 263.5 -115
Michael Vick Passing Yards Under 263.5 -115

Michael Vick Touchdown Passes Over 1.5 -160
Michael Vick Touchdown Passes Under 1.5 +130

LeSean McCoy Rushing Yards Over 90.5 -115
LeSean McCoy Rushing Yards Under 90.5 -115

LeSean McCoy Receptions Over 3.5 -140
LeSean McCoy Receptions Under 3.5 +110

LeSean McCoy Scores a Touchdown -185
LeSean McCoy Doesn’t Score a Touchdown +145

DeSean Jackson Receptions Over 4.5 -145
DeSean Jackson Receptions Under 4.5 +115

DeSean Jackson Receiving Yards Over 74.5 -115
DeSean Jackson Receiving Yards Under 74.5 -115

Jeremy Maclin Receiving Yards Over 53.5 -115
Jeremy Maclin Receiving Yards Under 53.5 -115

Jeremy Maclin Scores a Touchdown +140
Jeremy Maclin Doesn’t Score a Touchdown -180

Brent Celek Receptions Over 3.5 -125
Brent Celek Receptions Under 3.5 -105

Brent Celek Receiving Yards Over 49.5 -115
Brent Celek Receiving Yards Under 49.5 -115

Jason Avant Receptions Over 3 +115
Jason Avant Receptions Under 3 -145

DeMeco Ryans Solo + Assisted Tackles Over 6.5 -130
DeMeco Ryans Solo + Assisted Tackles Under 6.5 +100

Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie Intercepts a Pass +250
Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie Doesn’t Intercept a Pass -330

Alex Henery Total Points Over 7.5 +115
Alex Henery Total Points Under 7.5 -140

Drew Brees Completions Over 27.5 -115
Drew Brees Completions Under 27.5 -115

Drew Brees Longest Completion in Yards Over 40.5 -130
Drew Brees Longest Completion in Yards Under 40.5 +100

Drew Brees Passing Yards Over 318.5 -115
Drew Brees Passing Yards Under 318.5 -115

Drew Brees Touchdown Passes Over 2.5 -105
Drew Brees Touchdown Passes Under 2.5 -125

Drew Brees Throws an Interception -260
Drew Brees Doesn’t Thrown an Interception +200

Marques Colston Receptions Over 5.5 -115
Marques Colston Receptions Under 5.5 -115

Marques Colston Receiving Yards Over 77.5 -115
Marques Colston Receiving Yards Under 77.5 -115

Marques Colston Scores a Touchdown -105
Marques Colston Doesn’t Score a Touchdown -125

Lance Moore Receptions Over 4 -125
Lance Moore Receptions Under 4 -105

Lance Moore Receiving Yards Over 65.5 -115
Lance Moore Receiving Yards Under 65.5 -115

Jimmy Graham Receptions Over 5 +100
Jimmy Graham Receptions Under 5 -130

Jimmy Graham Receiving Yards Over 60.5 -115
Jimmy Graham Receiving Yards Under 60.5 -115

Jimmy Graham Scores a Touchdown -115
Jimmy Graham Doesn’t Score a Touchdown -115

Curtis Lofton Total Tackles Over 8.5 -125
Curtis Lofton Total Tackles Under 8.5 -105

Garrett Hartley Total Points Over 6.5 -150
Garrett Hartley Total Points Under 6.5 +120

Marijuana Laws: Legalize Pot Odds in Colorado, Washington, Oregon

November 4th, 2012 by Adam Markowitz (Bankroll Sports Columnist) | Posted in General Handicapping   Comments Off on Marijuana Laws: Legalize Pot Odds in Colorado, Washington, Oregon
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Light one up and pass down the ballot! Colorado, Washington, and Oregon all have initiatives to either legalize or ease restrictions on marijuana use and sales. With the number of people supporting marijuana legalization growing every year, states have been slowly taking small steps towards legalization for over a decade now but these would be some of the most progressive reforms yet. It comes as no surprise that these initiatives involve three of the most liberal states in the US or that these three early adopters are voting on this on Tuesday.

In Colorado, voters will be able to vote on Amendment 64 which will decriminalize marijuana and give it the same restrictions as alcohol, legalizing it fully for anyone under 21 and allowing stores to sell weed with a state license. If this passes, Colorado would be the first state in the country to fully legalize marijuana and could open the floodgates for other states and perhaps even the national government to fully legalize pot. Currently, Amendment 64 is a -210 favorite at SportBet Sportsbook to pass per the 2012 election odds and the odds for the measure not to pass are +160. When betting these lines, it’s important to keep in mind that initiative or amendment polling has a spotty track record at best, so rather than follow the polls it may be better to go with your gut.

Oregon voters will decide on Measure 80 on Tuesday, but this reform does not seem to have near the support that Amendment 64 has in Colorado. The measure is currently a massive -750 betting favorite according to the marijuana legalization chances with the option of the measure passing checking in as a +450 underdog at SportBet.com. A poll released on Wednesday found that 49% of Oregon voters opposed the measure and only 42% supported it. However, marijuana advocates quickly pointed out how the poll may have been skewed due to pollsters conducting this exclusively over the phone on landlines. They point out that a vast number of young people (assumed to be the major proponents of the measure) no longer use landlines and the poll thus had a flaw in its methodology and underrepresented the measure’s support. This is a valid argument and a poll compiled a different way may have an entirely different result.

Washington’s Initiative 502 is a huge favorite to be passed possibly because this does not liberalize marijuana to the extent that the legislation in Oregon and Colorado will. Right now, the bill is a -600 favorite to pass per the odds that weed is legalized at SportBet.com and is a sizeable +400 underdog to fail. With a name like the Evergreen State it seems inevitable that marijuana will be broadly legalized this fall and there may be a cloud of smoke bigger than Mt St Helen’s to celebrate.

Hovering over all of this though is the United States government, which might use its broad powers to sue any state that passes these measures as being in contradiction to federal law. Federal law prohibits marijuana sale, use, and possession and an action by the United States would tie up the legality of these laws in courts for years before potentially going all the way to the Supreme Court. One could only fathom what the Supreme Court would decide, but even this would go a long ways to the legalization of marijuana in America.