Archive for November 3rd, 2010

2010 NCAA Football Trends: Week 10 Top 25 Cheat Sheet

November 3rd, 2010 by Adam Markowitz (Bankroll Sports Columnist) | Posted in College Football   Comments Off on 2010 NCAA Football Trends: Week 10 Top 25 Cheat Sheet
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Week 10 college football betting is here! Bankroll Sports is back with more NCAA football picks for Week 10 of the year, but before we do that, we need to take a look at the important trends and history that the teams that are facing against each other in games involving Top 25 teams this week.

Saturday, November 6th: Washington Huskies @ #1 Oregon Ducks
NCAA Football Trends of Note
The Huskies are 3-10 ATS in their L/13 road games
Washington is 2-6 ATS in its L/8 played in the month of November
Oregon is 20-6 ATS in its L/26 against teams with a losing record

Series History
And we can only imagine just how good that record is against teams with a losing record playing their first game without their starting quarterback! The Huskies are up against in this year once again, and they have had absolutely no luck stopping the Ducks when they are at 100%. The Quack Attack are 6-0 SU and ATS in this series dating back to 2004, winning all six games by at least 20 points. This year should be no exception, as the U of O has a National Championship to go play for and is the biggest favorite on the board by a country mile in Week 10.

Saturday, November 6th: Hawaii Warriors @ #3 Boise State Broncos
NCAA Football Trends of Note
The Warriors are tied for the longest winning streak ATS in the country at six games
Hawaii is the only team in the country to have eight covers this season
The Broncos are 6-2 ATS in their L/8 overall

Series History
The Warriors have taken their licks on the Smurf Turf, losing 69-3 in 2004, but they also have some awfully competitive moments there as well. They nearly pulled off a shocking upset in 2006, losing 41-34 as two TD underdogs, and competed again in 2008 here, losing just 27-7. However, last season, BSU romped 54-9 and never really looked like it was getting touched even though it was out on the Big Island. The Broncos are 5-5 ATS all-time in this series, but they just snapped Hawaii’s four game cover streak in spite of the fact that there has only been one SU win for the Warriors since the 2000s started.

Saturday, November 6th: #4 TCU Horned Frogs @ #6 Utah Utes
NCAA Football Trends of Note
TCU is 23-9-1 ATS in its L/33 conference games
The Utes are 9-1-1 ATS in their L/11 overall
Utah is 5-0-1 ATS in its L/6 at home

Series History
Needless to say, this is about as big as it gets by mid-major standards. Both of these teams are in the Top 5 in the nation, and the winner thinks that it will be able to stake a claim to the BCS Championship Game should it win out. The Horned Frogs absolutely rolled last year to a 55-28 win over the Utes, but this was a series that historically belonged to Utah. The L/3 meetings prior to last year resulted in three wins both SU and ATS for the Utes.

Saturday, November 6th: #5 Alabama Crimson Tide @ #11 LSU Tigers
NCAA Football Trends of Note
Alabama is 6-2 ATS in its L/8 played on grass
The Tide are 6-2 ATS in their L/8 played in November
LSU is just 7-18-1 ATS in its L/26 home games

Series History
That last fact doesn’t make the Bayou any less scary of a place for a team to be that is coming in as a highly touted favorite to win the National Championship. The road team is 11-2-1 ATS in the L/14 meetings of these rivals though, and the favorite is 6-1-1 ATS in the L/8 overall. Needless to say, these are both great signs for the Tide. Alabama has won the L/2 meetings as short favorites, winning 24-15 last year in Tuscaloosa and 27-21 in overtime two years ago here in the Bayou. The L/4 have all gone past ‘totals’ in the 30s and 40s, but only one of the four, a 41-34 win for LSU in Tuscaloosa, came by a substantial margin.

Saturday, November 6th: #7 Wisconsin Badgers @ Purdue Boilermakers
NCAA Football Trends of Note
The Badgers are just 2-10 ATS in their L/12 road games as double digit favorites
Wisky is just 1-5 ATS in its L/6 games as a favorite
The Boilermakers are 7-2-1 ATS in its L/10 as double digit underdogs

Series History
The Boilermakers haven’t done a heck of a lot of scoring of late in this series, getting blanked 37-0 last year in Camp Randall and being blitzed 24-3 the last time these teams met in Lafayette. With QB Robert Marve out of the lineup, there’s a good chance that there won’t be a lot of points this year from the Boilers either. Wisky has covered four straight and has gone 6-1-1 ATS in the L/6 dating back to 1998 in this series. The Boilermakers haven’t won a game at home since 1997. The L/4 have all stayed ‘under’ the total.

Saturday, November 6th: #9 Oklahoma Sooners @ Texas A&M Aggies
NCAA Football Trends of Note
The Sooners are 4-1 ATS in their L/5 played in the Big XII
Oklahoma is a winless 0-6-1 ATS in its L/7 after an SU win of at least 20 points
The Aggies are just 6-13 ATS in their L/19 following an SU victory

Series History
Playing in front of the 12th Man is never something that is fun, but at least in the 2000s, it really hasn’t fazed Oklahoma one bit. The Aggies only have one win in this series since 2000, a 30-26 win in 2002 as ten point dogs. They haven’t been favored in this series during this stretch. The Sooners have dropped some big time numbers on the board in their day in this rivalry, winning 65-10 in 2009, 66-28 in 2008, and by a whopping margin of 77-0 in 2003.

Saturday, November 6th: #13 Arizona Wildcats @ #12 Stanford Cardinal
NCAA Football Trends of Note
The U of A is 8-3-1 ATS in its L/12 as dogs of more than a field goal but less than double digits
Stanford is 5-2 ATS in its L/7 following an SU win
The Cardinal are 16-5 ATS in their L/21 after scoring at least 40 in their previous game

Series History
This has traditionally been a low scoring series dating back to 2002, but that was bucked last year with a 43-38 win for Arizona in the desert. Stanford had also covered five of the previous six before last year as well. While playing on “The Farm,” Arizona does know what victory tastes like, having won here in 2007, 2000, and 1998 in recent memory, but the Cardinal have two of the L/3 laughs with wins in both 2008 as short underdogs and 2002 as short favorites.

Saturday, November 6th: #14 Missouri Tigers @ Texas Tech Red Raiders
NCAA Football Trends of Note
Mizzou is 7-1 ATS in its L/8 as road favorites of less than double digits
The Tigers are 14-6 ATS in their L/20 overall
Texas Tech is 42-17-1 ATS in its L/60 following an SU defeat

Series History
These two teams surprisingly don’t meet all that often, but they are probably going to have to get used to each other a lot more starting next year when the Big XII shrinks to just ten teams. The Tigers have won the L/3 both SU and ATS and have scored an average of 47.0 points per game in doing so. From 1995 to 2002, the teams split four games both SU and ATS. It’s a good thing that the Techsters are playing in Lubbock this weekend, because they have never covered a spread or won a game outright in Columbia.

Saturday, November 6th: Minnesota Golden Gophers @ #15 Michigan State Spartans
NCAA Football Trends of Note
The Gophers are 6-2 ATS in their L/8 games as road underdogs of at least ten points
Michigan State is 2-8 ATS in its L/10 home games against teams with a losing road record
The Spartans are just 7-15-1 ATS in their L/23 played in the month of November

Series History
The dogs have covered eight of the L/9 in this series, and that means that there has been a ton of success for the Golden Gophers as well! Minnesota has been dominating in this series over the L/3 games, winning 42-34 last year at home, 31-18 in 2006, and 41-18 in 2005. You have to go back to 2004 to find the last win for Sparty at home in this series, and all the way back to 1997 before that. Minnesota knows how to win games here in East Lansing, but unless there is going to be a major miracle happening between now and then, it probably doesn’t stand a chance on Saturday.

Saturday, November 6th: #16 Iowa Hawkeyes @ Indiana Hoosiers
NCAA Football Trends of Note
The Hawkeyes are 16-5 ATS in their L/21 road games
Iowa is 7-3 ATS in its L/10 in the Big Ten
The Hoosiers are just 2-6 ATS in their L/8 against the Hawkeyes

Series History
Last season’s 42-24 loss for the Hoosiers at Kinnick Stadium was a lot closer than the final score suggests. It was the second straight cover for the Hawkeyes in this series after winning 45-9 here in Bloomington two years ago. Before that though, it was Upset City for IU. The Hoosiers won 38-20 in the cornfields of Iowa as 9.5 point favorites in 2007 and 31-28 as whopping 19 point dogs in ’06. You can bet that the Indiana faithful are going to try to conjure up those moments from ’06 once again, as this is a very similar situation against a very, very good Iowa team.

Saturday, November 6th: #19 Arkansas Razorbacks @ #17 South Carolina Gamecocks
NCAA Football Trends of Note
The Razorbacks are 7-1 ATS in their L/8 played in the SEC
Arkansas is 8-3 ATS in its L/11 against teams with a winning record
The Gamecocks are 6-2 ATS in their L/8 against teams with a winning record

Series History
This is a remarkably close series between two very good programs that absolutely mirror each other this year. Arkansas does hold a 7-2 ATS edge since 2001 in this rivalry game, but it hasn’t always been easy. South Carolina has a 34-21 win here in Columbia in the last encounter here, but the Hogs won 33-16 last year as 7.5 point favorites. Both teams know what it’s like to win on the other’s home field, but the Razorbacks have done more winning as guests. They did so in both 2006 and 2002, both times as short favorites.

Saturday, November 6th: #22 Baylor Bears @ #18 Oklahoma State Cowboys
NCAA Football Trends of Note
The Bears are 6-2 ATS in their L/8 played in November
Baylor is 10-4 ATS in its L/14 against teams with a winning record
The favorite is 10-1 ATS in the L/11 in this series

Series History
It still seems weird to us to think that the Bears are a Top 25 team and in control of the Big XII South at this point. They haven’t won in this series since 2005 either SU or ATS, as the Pokes have rolled off four straight ‘W’s, all of which have come by at least 27 points. The Bears only have 13 points to show for their L/2 seasons worth of work against Okie State, a number which absolutely has to improve if they think they have any shot of pulling the upset in Stillwater. But hey, Baylor has been doing this sort of thing all season long, so why not again on Saturday?

Saturday, November 6th: #7 Wisconsin Badgers @ Purdue Boilermakers
NCAA Football Trends of Note
The Badgers are just 2-10 ATS in their L/12 road games as double digit favorites
Wisky is just 1-5 ATS in its L/6 games as a favorite
The Boilermakers are 7-2-1 ATS in its L/10 as double digit underdogs

Series History
The Boilermakers haven’t done a heck of a lot of scoring of late in this series, getting blanked 37-0 last year in Camp Randall and being blitzed 24-3 the last time these teams met in Lafayette. With QB Robert Marve out of the lineup, there’s a good chance that there won’t be a lot of points this year from the Boilers either. Wisky has covered four straight and has gone 6-1-1 ATS in the L/6 dating back to 1998 in this series. The Boilermakers haven’t won a game at home since 1997. The L/4 have all stayed ‘under’ the total.

Thursday, November 4th: Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets @ Virginia Tech Hokies
NCAA Football Trends of Note
The Jackets are 2-6 ATS in their L/8 played on Thursday night
G-Tech is 13-5 ATS in its L/18 road games
The Hokies have the longest ATS winning streak in the country at six games

Series History
There have been six meeting of these teams since the Hokies joined the ACC, and it seems as though each and every season, this is a crucial duel in deciding who wins the ACC Coastal Division. This year really isn’t that much of an exception, as VT can really put it away with a win on Thursday night. The Jackets have covered two straight in this series, winning 28-23 as short underdogs last year and just missing in a 20-17 loss here in Blacksburg in their last visit. The last three meetings have all resulted in ‘under’ games, so don’t be surprised if this is yet another low scoring affair.

Saturday, November 6th: #23 Nevada Wolf Pack @ Idaho Vandals
NCAA Football Trends of Note
The Wolf Pack are 7-3 ATS in their L/10 following an SU victory
Nevada is 0-4 ATS in its L/4 home field turf
Idaho has gone 5-1 ATS in its L/6 games as dogs at the Kibbie Dome

Series History
There certainly has been no shortage of points in this series, at least from Nevada’s end of things in this series. Dating back to 1997, the Wolf Pack are averaging 49.5 points per game, and they are coming off of a ridiculous 70 put on the board last year at home. The last time these teams met in Moscow was back in 2008, a 49-14 win for the visitors as 23.5 point favorites. Idaho has gone just 1-4 ATS and 0-5 SU since 2005, and its last victory in this series was back in 1999. The last win at home came in 1996, a 24-15 win.

Saturday, November 6th: North Carolina Tar Heels vs. #24 Florida State Seminoles
NCAA Football Trends of Note
The Tar Heels are 6-2 ATS in their L/10 against teams with a winning record
FSU is 3-7 ATS in its L/10 games played at Doak Campbell Stadium
The road team has covered four straight in this series dating back to 2001

Series History
It wasn’t all that many years ago that these two teams were ranked No. 1 and No. 2 in the country. The Noles were seven point favorites that day in Chapel Hill, and they triumphed 20-3. The Noles have only lost to UNC one time in their history in the ACC, a brutal 41-9 defeat in 2001 as 17 point favorites. It marked one of the first times that FSU had been beaten in ACC play since moving into the conference. Since ’03 though, this series has been all one way traffic for Florida State. Sure, the Seminoles didn’t cover the 28.5 point spread in 2004, but it really has cruised past Carolina without any incident.

Saturday, November 6th: #25 NC State Wolfpack @ Clemson Tigers
NCAA Football Trends of Note
The Wolfpack are 7-2 ATS in their L/9 overall
NC State is 6-2 ATS in its L/8 played in November
Clemson is just 3-5 ATS in its L/8 overall

Series History
The Tigers and Wolfpack have met a ton in conference play, but you have to go all the way back to 2003 to find the last win for NCSU, a 17-15 victory. The last time it won both SU and ATS in the same season against the Tigers was actually its last win here in Death Valley as well. The Wolfpack won 38-6 that day in the most lopsided final in their favor in the history of this series in the ACC. Clemson hasn’t won a game by less than 18 since 2006.